Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade
--- San Francisco, Toronto, Santiago, Dallas and Houston all growing fast. For now. Chilean capital will start to deal with smaller growth as births plunged there. San Francisco and Toronto with high housing prices. And the Texans, well, they're the strongest bet to keep growing at a fast pace;
--- Seattle, Phoenix and Caracas are about to break the 5 million barrier. We have some on the continent 4 million people metro areas (BrasÃlia, Recife, Porto Alegre, Montreal) but they're still far away from the 5 million mark.
|
In absolute numbers, Toronto CMA was the fastest growing metro in Canada/US before the pandemic hit. Dallas/Houston absolute population growth started heading down and fell significantly below Toronto. It suggests that Toronto is the best bet to have the strongest growth in that grouping. 10 years is a long time but the most recent non-COVID data is all one can go by. You're correct to mention high real estate prices as a drag on population growth. Torontonians are de-camping to KW, London, and Halifax. Time will tell, I guess.
MONTREAL (4,576,312)
4,364,189 (Montreal) + 42,854 (Salaberry-de-Valleyfield) + 61,424 (Saint Hyacinthe) + 13,472 (Lachute) + 52,261 (Joliiette) + 42,112 (Sorel-Tracy)
Montreal could be above 5 million at the end of the next 10 year period, 2030. It sits in a fairly dense area with a large number of sizeable towns that increasingly behave like bedroom communities of Montreal. One of these CAs (Census Agglomerations) will be added to the Montreal CMA (Census Metropolitan Area) for the 2021 Census according to Statistics Canada. I can't remember which one. The rest could easily get absorbed by the end of the decade. Above are population estimates of 5 notable CAs that sit close to the Montreal CMA. If they had been part of the Montreal CMA in 2020 it would have had a population of 4,151,965 in 2010 and 4,576,212 in 2020. If this area grows at the same rate that it did 2010-2020 (+424,347 or 10.22%) it would register 5,044,011 in 2030.
Montreal, arguably, sprawls more than any other Canadian metro. Montrealers seem to gravitate to these satellite towns in search of space. The numerous towns circling Montreal have a high likelihood of becoming growth centres for Montreal CMA and then absorbed by it. And there are others besides the 5 CAs I listed.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...101%2C20200101
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...101%2C20200101