Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy
In the West, social scientists have a horrible time predicting population growth due to so much of our population being dependent upon immigration.
Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure.
This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels.
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That's the main problem. Fortunately for Brazil (which postponed its Census for 2021) migration is pretty much zero. All growth is natural.
And inside the country, big waves of domestic migration are a thing of the past. It makes estimates much easier to make. We can assume migration levels remain the same of the past decade or assume it grew or fell according to fluctuations on the number of births.
And speaking of which,
Brazil grew
12.3% between 2000-2010 and is heading for a
9% between 2010-2020. For the next decade, I believe it will fall to
6%.
São Paulo metro area will grow by 1.5 million (8% down from 10% on the last decade) to reach
21.2 million. 1.7 million based on natural growth while migration will be negative by 200,000 people, leaving the metro area mostly to the nearby metro areas part of the macrometropolis (Campinas region, the coast).