Quote:
Originally Posted by JuliusDoaner
150 murders is unrealistic, but if Chicago can go consecutive years with under or around 300-400 homicides (where nyc is at right now, the city got close around 2014 like you said) I promise the reputation will start going away. Let Houston, Philly, or some other city replace Chicago as nation leading in homicides and it'll help alot. And I don't really hear too many people call NYC crime ridden nowadays, does it have crime issues? of course. But it doesn't get the hellhole treatment like cities like Chicago, Detroit, Philly, etc. do. The things I hear bad about NYC mainly have to do with how damn expensive/dirty it is and how small the apartments are.
Also doesn't help that recently alot of the crime has been spilling into "nicer" parts of town. But back to politics, I think having a mayor whose pro police and doesn't handcuff them would do alot for police morale. having CPD work consecutive 12 hour shifts is unacceptable, and Lightfoot is okay with it. I like his idea of cops on trains, and on the beat in neighborhoods. Basically I think he's the candidate to help alleviate the city's #1 problem.
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1) No it won't go away. Maybe you don't actually remember 2013 or 2014, but Chicago had JUST over 400 homicides for both of those years each and people still talked about this nationally giving Chicago crap for it. I have no idea how old you are or how long you've lived in Chicago, but this is nothing new even when the city had more moderate rates just less than a decade ago.
2) When you actually talk about this stuff, you have to talk about rates. This is fundamental. And bringing up Philadelphia in this shows me you haven't actually taken the time to look at any statistics. Philadelphia's murder rate last year was 32.17 per 100K vs. Chicago's 25.31 per 100K. Of course MOST cities that are larger are going to have a higher crime incidence level. This goes for anything - you look at rates for things of dissimilar sizes, not the overall counts.
Currently through most of January, the following cities that some people don't realize are worse in rate than Chicago lately have higher murder rates than Chicago in 2023:
Washington DC, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Dallas, Philadelphia, Louisville, Columbus (OH), Kansas City, Milwaukee, etc. Nashville is barely below Chicago right now and Houston and Minneapolis aren't far behind either. And of course cities like Jackson (MS), Birmingham, Detroit, Cleveland, Memphis, Baltimore, St. Louis, etc are much worse.
3) While there has been some spill over (most notably downtown) of violent crime, the majority of this is completely overstated with the levels for various types of violent crime still below what they were pre covid for most years. It's easy to find this data - and not hard to look to see what in the media you read is overstated/BS and what is not. And I'm not at all a Lightfoot fan (minus 1 or 2 things), but a lot of the robbery, battery/assault, etc levels in the "nicer" or adjacent parts of town are not really above or that far above what they were previous to her even being in office. And also counts for 2020 everywhere in town are almost always low - nobody was outside. And that's certainly true for most of 2021 too. I take those 2 years with a grain of salt because of that.
https://data.cityofchicago.org/Publi...ijzp-q8t2/data
For Lincoln Park, Lakeview, North Center, and Lincoln Square combined
Robberies by year
2010: 550
2011: 542
2012: 582
2013: 571
2014: 386
2015: 396
2016: 504
2017: 500
2018: 432
2019: 327
2020: 322
2021: 376
2022: 403
This area has almost identical count to 2015 and less than 2010 to 2013, and 2016 thru 2018. Also a reminder that the 2020 and 2021 populations in this area are greater than 2010.
Battery and Aggravated Assault by year
2010: 1986
2011: 1969
2012: 2021
2013: 1893
2014: 1648
2015: 1629
2016: 1691
2017: 1667
2018: 1772
2019: 1810
2020: 1200
2021: 1469
2022: 1663
2022 was one of the lowest years and barely above the 2 lowest years of 2014 and 2015. Quite a bit below 2010 to 2012 as well, and a bit below the few years before COVID.
For Near North Side, The Loop, and Near South Side combined
Robberies, by year
2010: 661
2011: 643
2012: 533
2013: 432
2014: 374
2015: 456
2016: 654
2017: 894
2018: 749
2019: 717
2020: 487
2021: 646
2022: 697
Now while 2022 was higher than 2011 - 2015, there was a huge uptick in 2016 and then again in 2017. Even 2019 had more robberies in this area than 2022. In other words, the robberies had already spilled into these downtown areas a small handful of years before COVID, but were people raising the alarms then? Also, just a reminder that the 2021 population is 34K greater than the 2010 population (20.5% increase). The robbery rate of these 3 areas in 2010 was 504 per 100K vs. 422 per 100K for 2022.
Battery and Aggravated Assault by year
2010: 2492
2011: 2192
2012: 2282
2013: 2146
2014: 2227
2015: 2195
2016: 2472
2017: 2817
2018: 3137
2019: 3260
2020: 2043
2021: 2710
2022: 3213
While 2022 is above a lot, it's still below 2019 and not far above 2018. Same question as above for this area.
For Edison Park, Norwood Park, Jefferson Park, Forest Glen, North Park, Albany Park, Portage Park, Irving Park, West Ridge, Rogers Park, and O'Hare combined
Robberies
2010: 869
2011: 851
2012: 748
2013: 693
2014: 534
2015: 514
2016: 738
2017: 686
2018: 651
2019: 425
2020: 515
2021: 506
2022: 512
2022 is one of the lowest years here for robberies in this part of town and almost identical to 2015, and much lower than 2010 - 2012.
Battery and Aggravated Assault by year
2010: 4354
2011: 4732
2012: 4620
2013: 4278
2014: 3946
2015: 3896
2016: 3954
2017: 3856
2018: 4062
2019: 3938
2020: 3523
2021: 3574
2022: 3957
2022 was lower than each year between 2010 and 2013 and almost identical to 2014. In fact it was almost identical to 2016 and 2019 too.
For West Town, Avondale, and Logan Square combined
Robberies by year
2010: 849
2011: 741
2012: 729
2013: 631
2014: 492
2015: 482
2016: 685
2017: 796
2018: 534
2019: 455
2020: 451
2021: 572
2022: 696
2022 was lower than 2012 thru 2012, not much higher than 2013, almost identical to 2016, and lower than 2017. Again, upticks suck but the levels aren't anything new in recent memory
Battery and Aggravated Assault by year
2010: 3544
2011: 3167
2012: 3009
2013: 2603
2014: 2445
2015: 2179
2016: 2321
2017: 2246
2018: 2215
2019: 2137
2020: 1678
2021: 1758
2022: 1825
2022 was lower than any year pre-COVID...