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High-speed rail ridership estimate doubted


July 2, 2010

Michael Cabanatuan

Read More: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...BA051E8DR3.DTL

Ridership forecasts used by the California High Speed Rail Authority to help plan the statewide fast train system are unreliable, according to a UC Berkeley study released Thursday. The report, ordered by the state Senate Transportation and Housing Committee but paid for by the High-Speed Rail Authority, found that the statistical process used to calculate ridership projections was seriously flawed and inconsistent.

"The forecast of ridership is unlikely to be very close to the ridership that would actually materialize if the system were built," said Samer Madanat, director of the Institute for Transportation Studies at UC Berkeley. "I can't tell you if the numbers would be over or under, but they would be far from an accurate prediction."

The rail authority, which is charged with building the 800-mile system, including a $43 billion initial line between San Francisco and Anaheim, will discuss the report and the projections at its meeting Thursday in Los Angeles. The report's authors and representatives of Cambridge Systematics, the firm that produced the projections, will participate.

Despite the conclusions of the UC Berkeley study, authority spokesman Jeff Barker stood behind the agency's reliance on the study in planning the system, which is still undergoing mandated environmental studies and selections of precise alignments and station locations.