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Old Posted Jul 16, 2020, 9:20 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is online now
The City
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Chicago region
Posts: 21,375
Big cities pummeled by COVID--best time to start new highrise projects?

For the biggest cities that have specially been spanked hard by the pandemic (NYC, Chicago, perhaps SF) and have effectively had their central cores "stunned" by the economic downturn, I'm thinking that this is the BEST time to start a new highrise project.

Hell, start building in the sector that got hit the hardest (hotel, perhaps office?).

People are avoiding transit. Office vacancies are rising. Hotels might as well have roving man-eating zombies in them, they're so empty. Shops and restaurants are gone belly up.

The construction supply line goes dry and then--pop--by next year or perhaps a bit later, there will be a huge amount of pent up demand for all of these sectors. Given the typical 2 year or so timeline on most big projects, now would be a great time to kick off a new project in these types of cities, if you can land financing.

In a sense, banks are really picking the winners and losers here. If they give you a huge loan, you will win the jackpot in about 2 years.

Thoughts?
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