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Old Posted Oct 7, 2019, 4:27 AM
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hammersklavier hammersklavier is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartphilly View Post
^
For 2 and 3, past performance is no guarantee of future performance nor is it an indicator to averages of when things get built. At best, it shows past performance, but as we know buildings get built based on demand and the dynamics of the business world in its ever changing landscape and where momentum plays a huge role in what gets built. I think if uCity picks up further momentum (e.g., because of more partnerships or other complementary companies having set up shop to gain synergies) by lining up major tenants based on demand for more lab/incubator type space, or whatever, it will get built sooner rather than later-hence wiping out a 10-15-20+ year speculated timeline. At the moment, I honestly think Ucity has a better chance to get fully built before Schuylkill Yards does IMO just because what is proposed for SY are taller and bigger buildings so it's harder to fill those out unless you get a major corporation or another industry looking to establish itself(i.e., fintech or some tech to fill it out).

To hedge my bet on uCity, there's a possibility we could see some backend fintech establish here at SY in the future due to its proximity to NYC/NJ via Amtrak if parts of NJ/NYC get too priced out of commercial space or if people just can't stretch the dollars far enough there and you don't get the workforce you need to run this segment of the financial industry. So, if there's a seismic shift on fintech/backend type of office processing here en masse, then my bet would change to this getting fully built first.
Keep in mind, though, that buildings do need to take time to get built, and the Science Center seems to be performing at or near the limits of its current pipeline (i.e. there's always a project either about to start, getting built, or just wrapping up). Certainly, if there's a significant uptick in leasing, we might see the pipeline capacity doubled and hence the time it'll take to exhaust the land bank halved, but the Science Center's projects are not insignificant and I rather suspect that they would prefer to choose other options (like offloading minor leases or subleases) as long as they can get away with it.

That said, perhaps we do hit a tipping point and see the Science Center expand its pipeline. OTOH, between it, SY, and the Platinum Corridor, there's a lot of potential space in the area and I for one rather prefer the current setup where all three are getting their shares of the pie. Now, if the total demand for space in the area spikes, that would be good for all the players...
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