Elizabeth Line + Transport Recovery in London and the UK
According to the latest ridership data (3-months to the end of Dec 2022) published by the
Office of Rail & Road (ORR,
https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statis...ger-rail-usage), the Elizabeth Line saw ridership increase by 41% on the previous 3-month (to the end of Sep 2022) period. That equals 62.2mn passengers, or 249mn on an annualised basis which means that the line is already above pre-Pandemic forecasts. It also makes it the busiest line in the UK, and busier than almost all train operators in the UK (who have a wider network). 1 in 6 rail trips (excl. the Underground) made in the UK are now on the Elizabeth Line.
What makes the figure even more mind boggling is that – like most other world cities – London is still recovering from the Pandemic (more on that below), there have been strikes, and the Elizabeth Line only saw completion of through running in early November 2022, and the final timetable which enables 24tph and faster trains isn’t due to go live until May. Last Summer the line was expected to break-even sometime in 2023/24 at a time when the line was being used by 2mn/week; with ridership now hitting 4.8mn/week, and continuing to grow, the line may already be profitable and generating a lot more cash to help deliver upgrades across the network.
With the line likely to continue to see growth (perhaps towards 400mn passengers a year), there will be increased calls to lengthen trains (currently 9-carriages but the line was futureproofed for 11-carriages), increase frequencies north of 24tph (the Victoria and other tube lines operate at up to 36ph), and continue to develop Crossrail 2.
Which then got me thinking about the general post-Pandemic recovery of travel in London and the UK. Outside of the Elizabeth Line, rail has had a gradual upward recovery, led by intercity operators, and London & South East, and regional operators following suit. The above and following two charts are published by the ORR up to the end of Dec 2022.
The following charts are published by the
Department of Transport (
https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...id-19-pandemic) and cover all transport modes and are updated more frequently – the latest dataset goes up to 13 March 2023. I worked the figures on a 28-day rolling average, but generally whilst there has been a recovery, it is easy to spot periods where strike action has materialised.
- In 2022, the Tube began to register passenger figures above pre-Pandemic levels first on the 2 + 3 Jul (which coincided with the Platinum Jubilee Bank Holiday), and then subsequently again on 18 Sep, 12 Nov, 25 + 29 Dec. In 2023, the Tube has already registered 7 days above pre-Pandemic levels despite various tube strikes which has seen ridership fluctuate wildly, dipping to as low as 69% on 3 Feb 2023.
- London Buses saw a return to pre-Pandemic levels on the same 2 + 3 Jul dates as the Tube, but only returned to positive figures on six days since 25 Dec 2022. London Buses have unlike the Tube however maintained a regular high ridership, dropping below <80% of pre-Pandemic numbers five days over the last 90-day period. Non-London Buses have had a more erratic recovery, but still positive; the market outside of London is fragmented and deregulated which is starting to change as more cities and regions copy the London model for buses.
- National Rail (which includes all UK operators except the Underground) has only hit pre-Pandemic two times, twice (12 + 22 Feb 2023), but despite suffering from a combination of strikes, fare rises, some operators maintaining pre-pandemic reduced timetables or not delivering services (e.g. Avanti West Coast), over the last 50-day period, 40 were above >90%. Note – there is a gap in
- All Motor Vehicle use has been driven mainly by the increased use of Light Commercial Vehicles (vans) and Heavy Goods Vehicles (lorries); regular car use routinely hit >90% since 2022, but has only hit >100% once in the last 90-day period.
- Cycling was regularly hitting above 100%, hitting >250% in summer 2022; hence why I haven’t included on the chart to avoid wide swings. There has been a dip since early December, perhaps due to intermittent weather.
