Didn't we just have a Provincial election like a month ago?
Seriously though having just been through the Kirkfield Park by-election what I can tell you is the PCs even without the returning MLAs are easily the best organized party. The number of times they were at my door definitely started to get annoying.
The Liberals, to their own credit, did manage to show up at my door.
And the NDP put on a truly solid race with an openly trans candidate running in a traditionally conservative friendly area and finishing a fairly close second. Sadly with a general election months away they lacked the ground game to even knock on my door once.
Personal feelings aside, my thinking is the general election goes to the PCs and they continue to poll at record lows before and after the election.