Olympic Weather Forecast
 

Looking great next week, but not too great for the first week of the Games...hopefully the forecast changes:
http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/8412/screenshot20100204at101.png

They don't even know what's going to happen later today, let alone next week. Forecasting is the biggest scam of the Century!! :P

Especially in Vancouver.

I read one time that accuracy is 50% for tomorrow, 50% of that (25%) for 2 days out, and so on.

However the warm/sunny weather we've had in the last month is certainly drier and warmer than normal... the law of averages suggests a giant snow dump in the next few weeks. The kind that slows Metro Van to a crawl in the best of times. :tup:

not in el nino years

the LAST thing vancouver needs for the olympics is snow. It's hard enough driving around in Vancouver after a snowfall, try doing it with the extra million or so people in town. Everyone will miss the events

Yeah, Downtown Vancouver doesn't need snow. NO SNOWLYMPICS!

Besides, VANOC has already spent the snow removal budget adding snow :P

You mean the snow retrieval budget.:cheers:

:haha:

I just hope we get record rain fall for the last half of February. With a freezing level of 3000m. Nothing sweeter then being on vacation enjoying the sun knowing its pissing rain back home.
Yes im a ahole when it comes to talking about the olympics, now.

Well, that's certainly a stark contrast to before :D

:jester:

i say we should setup some beach volleyball nets at english bay in time for the olympics.... now that would attract quite the crowd

I'd really like to see the weather get a tiny bit colder but otherwise stay the same. Oh, and clear skies/sun. Driving around Vancouver this afternoon I had to have a bit of a chuckle to myself noticing dozens of people out running and walking their dogs plus almost every tennis court full of people in shorts/t-shirts. Not to mention the cherry blossoms coming out. It's so cool we can host a winter games in the spring. lol.

You're basically right. Forecast skill declines per day approximately as you describe. The 14-day trend posted by our ambitious friends at the weathernetwork is nothing more than model error beyond 3-4 days. Nothing about that forecast is accurate... is it really going to rain on the 16th??? Climatologically speaking, probably (based on historical stats). However, anything is possible... a modelled ridge of high pressure doesn't form as strong, or maybe the storm track shifts north or south.

Its too early to be predicting the olympic weather beyond trends. So if you want to go with a historical trend, using El Nino historical weather patterns... its probably not going to be that cold.

Here's the article on El Nino from Pique Magazine in Whistler from 2006 . . . seems like it might be fitting for this discussion. Of course we won't need theory anymore as its nearly game time. The main thing that struck me at the time I posted the article last summer was that the effects of El Nino (typically) tend to lessen as you get into later winter. The thing that strikes me now is that members here have long suspected Cypress might be the one "weak link," which it appears to be. Though it is interesting that the fact it snowed this week there seems to have escaped the doom and gloom stories literally circling the globe now ;).

Frankly I think if Vancouver is mild, that might be a blessing for the Olympics. If it doesn't rain on Cypress a lot, then they'll be fine. But if it does rain up there, that'll be a challenge. Whistler should be fine, even with a warmer February. The village might get a bit of drizzle (and will ;)). But the Callaghan Valley sits higher than the village, and the mountains there have continued to get snow all through January.

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Pique article (http://www.piquenewsmagazine.com/piq...weather+1341):

Environment Canada predicting warmer winter
El Niño could be good news for Whistler

Published Date: 2006-10-12 Time: 10:10:42

By Andrew Mitchell

While no doubt some Canadians are welcoming the Meteorological Service of Canada’s forecast of a warm, dry winter, the impact on coastal mountain resorts like Whistler may not be as bad.

According to MSC weather forecaster Peter Jones, the main culprit behind the warmer temperatures is an El Niño developing over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Warmer El Niño waters typically influence temperatures across Canada, to the extent that it has become one of the more reliable forecasting tools for meteorologists.

The connection between El Niño and precipitation is less certain, says Jones, and on the coast it can vary depending on the presence of an Aleutian low pressure system further north. While most of the country could experience lower precipitation because of El Niño, the coast could actually be a great deal wetter.

That, says Jones, is where freezing levels come in and higher temperatures will have the greatest impact.

“In the end, what we think we know and do know to some extent is that at lower elevations in the Coast Mountains, 1,200 metres and below, whatever precipitation falls will fall more as rain proportionally than in a normal winter,” said Jones. “When you look at Cypress Bowl at 350 metres you can see the snow at a fraction (of normal) during an El Niño, while at 1,900 metres at the Roundhouse (on Whistler) — where we have records back to 1973 — is more total snow.

“It might be wetter snow on average, because the freezing level is a little higher, but overall that’s what we’ve seen.”

Some of Whistler-Blackcomb’s best winter seasons, including 1997-98 and 1998-99 were El Niño years.

El Niño conditions in the Pacific so far are rated as weak, but according to MSC computer models will become moderate by December and the start of the winter season. As a result there is less likelihood of arctic outbreaks that last for any length of time, if the southern part of the province sees any arctic weather at all, and parts of the Lower Mainland will likely stay snowless throughout the winter.

“Personally I’m a skier so I’m always interested in the data, and I’m anticipating a lot of questions about this because of the huge economic impact it could have on the province, a lot of questions about the snow,” Jones said. “It’s only in rare years that I would take the time to explain what we know, every other year I would say we’re guessing, don’t waste you’re time on this even though we put out a seasonal forecast for every season.

“El Niño winters are different — only when El Niño is moderate or strong do we have any confidence in (the seasonal forecast).”

For December through the end of February, temperatures in the southern part of the province are expected to be about 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer on average, with parts of Ontario and Manitoba expecting temperatures almost three degrees warmer. Temperatures will be close to normal, about one degree warmer than average, for March, April and May.

In terms of precipitation, the Coast Mountains could see anywhere from 0.2 to 3.8 additional millimetres per day, averaged out over December, January and February, while the Interior of the province could see a drop of 0.3 mm per day on average — depending on the strength and position of the Aleutian Low.

Precipitation in March, April and May for the Coast Mountains is forecast to be close to normal, or about 0.1 mm per day above average.

Although there is no established link between El Niño and global warming, some evidence suggests that there’s an indirect link that amplifies the effect of the warmer waters on climate.

It’s interesting to note that Environment Canada’s predictions run against those of the Canadian Almanac, which is predicting temperatures that are one or two degrees colder on average and near normal precipitation. The Almanac also predicts that the most snow will fall in mid-to-late November, from early to mid-January and from mid-to-late February.

yikes...


http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/8262/screenshot20100206at919.png

My theory on forecasts like this that show rain over a week away is that it increases the chance it will change so there isn't rain. Besides, it's Vancouver. Most of it would probably be drizzle.

At least the temperature is projected to be normal, though of course that could change too ;).

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/2876/screenshot20100208at315.png

http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/7928/screenshot20100208at317.png



Summer Games?

I suspect that Vanoc will be very, very happy if they actually get 7 consecutive days of sunshine, preceded by a few days of snow on Cypress, as shown in that latest forecast. The good publicity of a sunny day is priceless. A few weeks ago I heard John Furlong saying that their biggest fear is not warm weather, but gray clouds and fog. You can fix snow with dry ice pipes, but you can't make a venue look good on HDTV on a cloudy day.

Very true. The number of events happening at Cypress really is limited.

This city is like a different place in the sun.