That person went out of their way to earn it, hence why they're the only one prosecuted for it lol.

30% of Americans, which means 40% of adults, have now gotten at least one dose of vaccine. Studies suggest about 30% of the population has had COVID, whether or not symptomatic. That means around 60% of the adult population (half the total population) should have some degree of immunity.

Todays WSJ reported what one would assume. New cases are concentrated among the unvaccinated: Those between 18 and 34. While these people usually don't end up in ICUs on ventilators, they can get sick enough to require hospitalization and hospitalizations are rising. The presumption is that the increase in infection rates in this group is a combination of the fact that they disproportionately work in jobs involving direct public contact and they disproportionately socialize in groups (as well as the fact that so many of them feel invulnerable and so have abandoned precautions).

Anyway, we should be approaching the point where we can see a "herd immunity" effect, if only in the muting of any new surge. After all, the virus has only half the population to work on.

A mandate after a certain amount of people are vaccinated is pointless and political.

You don't have to feel my pain. I don't have pain lol I am simply not wearing my mask outdoors anymore, its really that simple.

And they decimated the bar and pub industry in the process.

Things in Brazil are desperate as you might know if you’re following the news. Today we broke 3,000 deaths by the 7-day average.

The brightside is more than 1 million doses were administered today and 18.5 million Brazilians got at least 1 dose while over 5 million got both. Let’s see how long it takes for infections and deaths to recede.

Meanwhile, São Paulo’s bars and restaurants are on their knees. It makes me depressed, not sure how long it will take for the city to recover.

But does the pandemic exist if the nation achieves herd immunity?

That assumes that the population of people that have gotten the vaccine have not had COVID.

If we achieve herd immunity meaning only sporadic cases, then no--the pandemic doesn't exist. It's over.

But remember that herd immunity is not a bright line--it's a thing you gradually sneak up on and what I'm waiting for is to see some definite indications we are approaching it.

No, it doesn't.

If 30% of people have had COVID, I only subtracted 30% of the unvaccinated from the total, not 30% of the total population. Check the math.

If 40% of adults have been vaccinated, that leaves 60% unvaccinated. If 30% of the overall population have had COVID, I did NOT add that 30% to the 40% vaccinated to get 70% immune. I took (approximately) 30% of the unvaccinated 60% or 20% and added that to the 40% to get 60% immune.

This is OF COURSE a rough approximation and certainly the percentage who have had COVID is just a guess but 30% is a guess I've read from sources that seem reasonable.

Brazil is still too far from having vaccinated a significant percentage to see any effects. According to Bloomberg it is vaccinating 750,000 people per day (average over last 7 days) but their figures show 23.6 million shots already given (8.8% of the population with 1 or more doses). If they have reached 1 million doses in one day now and can keep that up, it's very good news.

But the horror seems so shocking and Bolsonaro's attitude seems so unsympathetic that an outsider wonders how he remains in office.

Jair Bolsonaro tells Brazilians to stop 'whining' about Covid

I know we aren't supposed to talk politics here but one wonders what the recent military shake-up is really all about.

Brazil: calls grow for removal of 'coup-mongering' Bolsonaro as crisis builds

I'm actually not worried about the industry (as opposed to individual employees in the industry).

I actually hope that in San Francisco a lot of deadwood--places that have seen better days or were living off past glories--will be cleared out and we'll see a renaissance of new, more interesting places (that will hopefully rehire a lot of the workers).

Even here in exurban Arizona, that never really locked down but did ban indoor dining for a while and has now reopened it, I noticed today lots of "help wanted" signs in the windows. It really was striking--just about every place that serves food had one in the window.

Under normal circumstances, Brazil has the ability to vaccinate up to 4 million people a day thanks to its very comprehensive universal healthcare system. It had, on several occasions, vaccinated 10 million people in one single day.

The problem is the lack of vaccines, and as you mentioned that’s up to Bolsonaro that actively and publicly sabotaged every effort to get them last year.

Tens of thousands of deaths, specially on the second wave, could have been easily prevented. There are no words to describe the nightmare the Brazil is into it.

That's a very cold way of looking at the situation. Many restaurant and bar owners have sunk their life savings into their businesses. Some also have no other skill. So they lose their business they lose their homes, their retirements, and have no good job to turn to. Life-shattering in so many ways. Repeat that thousands of times and I don't think a "renaissance" of new hip restaurants means much in comparison.


And regarding the help wanted sign, its obvious what is happening. Low-income people are staying on unemployment because its paying well and it keeps getting extended. Once the government decides to cut people off, those jobs will be filled.

The concern of course is that as the virus mutates the "herd immunity" and individual immunity gets reduced. Does this mean an annual booster covid shot just lke a flu shot? Possibly. I do plan to keep wearing a good mask in indoor public spaces. Better safe than sorry. Hopefully real N95 masks will become easily available intead of cheap knockoffs that don't work. 3M and others have been very slow in cranking out enough N95s to meet demand. The health community gobbles them up and throws them away after just one use.

Even more "life shattering" is going into a crowded bar (or cruise ship etc.) and getting infected with covid. The world is a different place than pre 2020. Sad but true. Hopefully the virus will be defeated, but it keeps mutating so we have to be careful. Potentially a mutant strain could develop that impacts younger people more severely just like the 1918 flu did. The young have to change their behaviors. These "spring break" wild parties are endangering everyone. Colleges should end spring break until covid is defeated.

Life shattering for whom? Not the young, who generally shake off Covid quickly if they have symptoms at all. Unvaccinated old or otherwise vulnerable people shouldn’t be going to bars.

When the elderly are vaccinated, then Covid is as “defeated” as it ever will be. Deaths are still plummeting even as cases tick up slightly. It will never be eliminated and some people will continue to die from it every year, as with flu.

....Said nobody like, ever......

Or, to reiterate: young people going to a bar and getting COVID are not experiencing a "life shattering" event. You're talking about mortality rates in the fractions of a percent.

Now, if you're an elderly person or a person with a lot of major health problems, you haven't been vaccinated, and you enter a crowded bar and get Covid....well, that's your fault.

yeah COVID works like that.......

I agree. The industry was not "decimated." Anecdotally, I've seen that as things have been starting to open up again, many of the restaurants that were temporarily closed are now open again for business. Totally new restaurants and bars have opened up as well. I felt more sorry for the workers who were laid off. Even before the pandemic, brand new mom and pop restaurants often failed within 2 or 3 years. People who start businesses either have a lot of money to begin with and/or really good credit. If they go out of business, it's a tax write-off for them. This is why I feel more sorry for employees who work for other people (and can lose their jobs at the drop of a hat) than for business owners.

You see that where I live too, and it's obvious what's happened; when these restaurants switched to take out/delivery only, they laid off some staff. I know that some restaurant owners told those employees that they would rehire them once they're allowed to do dine-in again. But, many of those laid off employees found other jobs in the meantime, so those restaurants that have opened up again now have to hire/train new staff.

Many of the new places have the same owners as the old places. It's just a "freshening" of format. As for the "life savings" of the owners of failed places, the restaurant industry has one of there highest turnover/failure rates of any industry. It goes with the territory. And somebody who simply closes up shop right now may not lose as much as you think--they often can get out of future lease payments due to rent relief and other obligations they normally might have. I'm not crying for them.

Meanwhile, as far as those poor folks who won't worK:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/march-j...21-11617314225

6% unemployment would have been considered decent in times past. Once we though 5% unemployment was "full employment" until we achieved much lower levels.