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And needless to mention many middle-income countries are quite good on retaining those kind of people. Brazil, for instance, comes to mind. |
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At this point there are still more qualified people who want to move to "the West" than "the West" is prepared to let in. And this definitely includes the U.S. BTW. And regarding the U.S. and its allegedly "tainted" image relative to other countries, it's a common perception in certain circles (often as a political point or strategy) but I am not sure that really pans out very much in reality. Even through the most turbulent episodes of its history the U.S. has always been a migration magnet for millions of people around the world. For example even when the U.S. had a highly conflictual relationship with post-revolutionary Iran, with propaganda there labelling the U.S. as the Great Satan and the stars and stripes routinely burned in the streets, tens of thousands of Iranians were still immigrating to the U.S. It may seem odd to some, but an "anti-immigrant U.S." is still a highly alluring place to immigrate to for millions of people around the world. |
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To add to this, it should also be noted that just because a country becomes wealthier doesn't necessarily mean people no longer want to emigrate either. And in many cases it may even have the opposite effect, as greater wealth in a developing country may enable more people to have the ability to leave. Eg. 3 of Canada's top 10 immigration sources are from other developed nations (US, UK, and France). |
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Even if conditions are improving in developing countries, there can be a fairly long transitional period where a country is producing more and more skilled, educated individuals but the type of societal climate (robust institutions, personal safety, a heightened level of "organization", opportunities and environment for their kids) isn't yet in place to the level that those kinds of people would normally expect. This is 100% what is driving the migration of *choice* immigrants from francophone sub-Saharan Africa to Quebec these days. |
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Throughout history, the vast majority of migrants heading to northern America went to the US. For the first time in history, Canada is grabbing a large chunk of those migrants. Unthinkable just a few years ago, but Canada could potentially record a higher number than the US in the near term. Net International Migration 2018 - 2019 Canada: +436,689 United States: +595,348 https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...st-nation.html |
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Judging by the social upheaval occurring in the US you'd never know that the non-Hispanic white population in the US were still in the majority. It gives one pause for thought. When they dip close to 50% and then lower, things might go from terrible to worse. On second thought, maybe I'm wrong. California's social cohesion doesn't seem any worse than states like Ohio. |
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Take the politics to CE.
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I read so many conflicting things about population growth/shrinkage of the US that it's hard to know what to believe. No one knows for sure anyway.
Some sources say places like Chicago, LA and NY are still growing, especially the greater metropolitan areas. |
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The Big 3 has slowed down considerably. It's even more pronounced than the US as a whole: NEW YORK CSA 2000 --- 21,501,800 --- 8.5% 2010 --- 22,255,628 --- 3.5% 2019 --- 22,589,036 --- 1.5% LOS ANGELES CSA 2000 --- 16,373,645 -- 12.7% 2010 --- 17,877,006 --- 9.2% 2019 --- 18,711,436 --- 4.7% CHICAGO MSA 2000 ---- 9,098,970 -- 11.2% 2010 ---- 9,461,537 --- 4.0% 2019 ---- 9,458,539 -- -0.0% And the United States for comparison: 2000 -- 281,421,906 -- 13.2% 2010 -- 308,745,538 --- 9.7% 2020 -- 330,047,526 --- 6.9% |
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Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems that small town/ rural America is dying a slow death. With stuff like the opioid epidemic, economic decline, meth addiction, overall despair, and loss of community among other things due to decreased church or community involvement, it’s hard to think that things are really going well outside the major urban areas. |
The current low growth rate of the US is playing out all over the Western world and has been for decades. The birth rate is well below replacement levels and this will continue to accelerate. Immigration now accounts for a staggering 80% of all population growth in Canada.
For many people in the countries effected, they are fine with this. Their countries or big cities are crowded enough for them, allowing people in who have totally different values and social norms {especially in Europe}, and as housing prices continue to rise, many think the negatives of immigration out weigh the positives. The problem the governments have is that as the Boomers continue to retire, live longer, but with far fewer young workers to take their place, the pensions systems and healthcare costs will be untenable. Governments need these younger workers to keep the economy rolling and pay for the ever rising costs of a aging population. |
Aside the general US slow down, another important mark for 2020 Census: non-Hispanic White population will decline for the first time ever between Census:
1950 --- 131,805,405 1960 --- 153,217,498 1970 --- 169,622,593 1980 --- 180,256,366 1990 --- 188,128,296 2000 --- 194,552,774 2010 --- 196,817,552 2015 --- 197,534,496 (peak) 2018 --- 197,033,939 |
Rising housing prices are not due to immigration per se. Housing prices are often highest in places that, proportionately, are not growing especially fast. Victoria in Canada, vs Edmonton? San Francisco/NYC in the USA vs. Phoenix/Houston?
If they are due to immigration then it is no different than the demand induced by migration from the hinterlands. Nimbyism, lack of land to expand housing, zoning and development policies/priorities, tax policies regarding principal residence, rock-bottom interest rates and lax lending policies are more to blame for stratospheric housing inflation. |
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There are alternatives between perpetual growth and economic collapse, you know. How about taxing people like Jeff Bezos, who is on track to become a fucking trillionaire, to pay for the ever rising costs of an aging population? |
We've talked about the US, and the 2nd largest country of Americas, Brazil, will also face aging issues:
1980 --- 119.011.052 1991 --- 146.825.475 --- 23.4% 2000 --- 169.799.170 --- 15.6% 2010 --- 190.747.731 --- 12.3% 2020 --- 208.000.000 ----- 9.0% 2030 --- 221.000.000 ----- 6.2% The way things are evolving, it seems population will start to decline somewhere between 2035-2040. |
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As these cohorts start dying off population decline will be far more severe because there's practically no one of child bearing age to offset that. I suppose some urbanites will buy summer homes and/or retire in these places as money tied up in real estate will go a lot further in these depressed places. |
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While numbers present this 10-year delay, growth components are quite different: Brazil has a neutral migration rate while the US is positive, but not so much lately. In Brazil, growth is basically births minus deaths and while births peaked in the mid-1980's at 4 million/year, it now stands at 2.8 million, down from 3.3 million in 2000 and 3 million in 2010. Deaths, on the other hand, are always on a rising as the population ages. By 2030, I guess Brazil will be at 2.5-2.8 million while deaths will rise from 1.3 million in 2019 to around 1.8 million by 2030, for an annual increase below 1 million/year by the late 2020's. |
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