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-   -   How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=242036)

jtown,man Feb 13, 2021 4:00 PM

Looks like there's more 100+ year-olds dying than people 40-49.

Teachers, get back to work.

the urban politician Feb 13, 2021 4:13 PM

We really need to make it a national priority here in the US to speed vaccine delivery.

There was Operation Warp Speed for creating the vaccine, and I think it did amazingly well. Now we need an “operation warp speed” for getting shots into arms.

So far performance has been pitiful and hit or miss. I have relatives in other places who had their shots weeks ago, meanwhile my parents are languishing at home and aren’t being given any appointments no matter who they call

pip Feb 13, 2021 8:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man
So even with Illinois being so serious about covid and Florida not, Florida still did better or about the same as Illinois considering they have nearly double the population of Illinois.

Your numbers prove Florida is doing good.

Yet still by June there wasn't an effective way to treat COVID and Florida had still largely escaped the depths of COVID at the beginning. Since the fall Florida is still warm, Illinois is not. Everything is indoors in Illinois and COVID spreads much easier in cold dry air.

Also there are so many factors with COVID and different variants.

Your original statements was mocking people in Chicago wearing masks after your visit to home in Arkansas. And you claimed Arkansas did better than Illinois.


You keep on changing the goal posts.

The original reply stands.
Quote:

Deaths per million people as of yesterday
Arkansas 1714
Illinois 1726

The Chicago area got hit hard at the beginning of the pandemic and this was before it was known how to treat COVID-19. Also can you really compare largely rural Arkansas to Illinois with the compact city of Chicago making up 20% of the State's population and the Chicago area making up 60-70% of the state's population?

lio45 Feb 13, 2021 8:54 PM

When people suggest that it's harder to contain Covid in an urban setting than in a rural one, I'm really not sure that it's not the other way around. In an urban area, it's easier to work from home (the type of jobs available are more likely to lend themselves to this), and much easier to get food and items delivered to your door (instead of having to go in your car and drive to a public place where you'll have to touch lots of things and interact with other humans in order to acquire your necessities of life).

Think about it: the density at which it starts to matter for spreading Covid (>1 person per couple square meters) is WAY above the densities of any inhabited floor plans in Western democracies; no urban area in those countries is so extremely "urban" that you can't easily respect social distancing if you choose to.

Now, sure, if you have slums where there's 15 people crammed into a 2br/1ba apt, yes, that kind of density starts to have a bearing on the discussion.

But for a place like the USA, I'd say it's likely harder, all factors considered, to contain Covid in rural areas than it is in cities.

JManc Feb 13, 2021 9:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9190083)

Teachers, get back to work.

Not until they are vaccinated. There are teachers with co-morbidities and of all ages. I have three good teacher friends who are 50+

mhays Feb 13, 2021 9:22 PM

Many factors tend to be pluses for urban vs. rural, and vice versa.

Rural people might tend to shop less often because they have bigger homes and go to big box stores vs. neighborhood stores. Urban people often shop for groceries once or twice a week, get lots of takeout, etc. Stocking up on anything is a new concept for many of us, or at least for me.

In any case, numbers for Illinois are far better than for Arkansas lately.

And the West Coast is obviously doing way better than average. California is a bit better, and Washington and especially Oregon are outstanding in relative terms. Seattle for one is doing great, despite having the first then-known US outbreak. Leadership has played a big role in this.

iheartthed Feb 13, 2021 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 9190356)
Many factors tend to be pluses for urban vs. rural, and vice versa.

Rural people might tend to shop less often because they have bigger homes and go to big box stores vs. neighborhood stores. Urban people often shop for groceries once or twice a week, get lots of takeout, etc. Stocking up on anything is a new concept for many of us, or at least for me.

I wouldn't go that far. Some of the worst outbreaks in the country were in relatively rural states. North Dakota and South Dakota had the two worst outbreaks per capita (as of today), and they are two of the least urban states in the country. Illinois is the only large state (top 10 by population) that makes the top 20 of cases per capita; it is exactly #20 (as of today). Arkansas has the 8th worst outbreak so far.

For big states, Florida isn't doing that great. It ranks 6th in number of cases among big states. That list ordered from least severe to most severe outbreak:

Michigan
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Ohio
New York
Florida
California
Texas
Georgia
Illinois

As for whether lockdowns work, clearly they do when done properly. You can go to the CDC's website and see total deaths of any cause per month per state in 2019 and 2020 (only through Sept 2020 so far). Comparing the monthly deaths in 2019 v 2020, you can clearly see when the outbreak starts in each state and when it subsides. It clearly starts in New York in February/March and is brought under control around June. In fact, half of all deaths in NYS from January - October happened in March, April and May. A quarter of them in April alone.

mhays Feb 14, 2021 5:19 AM

We're agreeing. The low-regulation states have frequently been shitshows in the post-May numbers, while the high-reg states have typically done well..

glowrock Feb 14, 2021 1:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9190083)
Looks like there's more 100+ year-olds dying than people 40-49.

Teachers, get back to work.

As soon as they've been vaccinated, yes.

But of course you don't give a rat's ass about vaccinations. All you want is for everything to be back open at 100% in order for you to live your life without restriction.

Aaron (Glowrock)

glowrock Feb 14, 2021 1:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 9190097)
We really need to make it a national priority here in the US to speed vaccine delivery.

There was Operation Warp Speed for creating the vaccine, and I think it did amazingly well. Now we need an “operation warp speed” for getting shots into arms.

So far performance has been pitiful and hit or miss. I have relatives in other places who had their shots weeks ago, meanwhile my parents are languishing at home and aren’t being given any appointments no matter who they call

I completely and totally agree with you on this one, tup. The faster we can get shots into arms of the majority of Americans, the sooner we can get back to "normal", whatever the hell that is nowadays. We truly needed a NATIONAL versus a STATE response to this. The National Guard should have been used for vaccine distribution, honestly.

Seems things are getting at least a little better in terms of the amount of vaccine actually available, but the actual process of getting vaccinated is still too damned difficult for many right now.

Aaron (Glowrock)

chris08876 Feb 14, 2021 2:28 PM

If there is one thing that covid-19 has taught us... one of the many lessons from the Covid teacher, is that we as a society need to get healthier. Too many folks out there with pre-existing conditions and health issues. We have an unhealthy society.

So let's recap with some of the lessons that nature, the greatest teacher, has taught us:

1) We are not prepared for something bigger
2) Our govt is dysfunctional
3) Too many unhealthy folks out there
4) anti-science mentality is rampant
5) supply lines are an issue
6) when we put our minds to it, things like vaccines can come quick
7) It has taught us about hygiene
8) The pandemic has resulted in an increase in divorces, so it has taught us to possibly not jump the gun with someone until one is ready
9) Has taught that the economic system is that simple to break down
10) A social safety net is really needed or needs improvement

And many more lessons. Let's just hope they stick around, the teachings!

jtown,man Feb 14, 2021 6:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glowrock (Post 9190739)
As soon as they've been vaccinated, yes.

But of course you don't give a rat's ass about vaccinations. All you want is for everything to be back open at 100% in order for you to live your life without restriction.

Aaron (Glowrock)

Teachers aren't a special class.

How about the workers who have been working outside the home for the last year get the vaccine first?

jtown,man Feb 14, 2021 6:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 9190755)
If there is one thing that covid-19 has taught us... one of the many lessons from the Covid teacher, is that we as a society need to get healthier. Too many folks out there with pre-existing conditions and health issues. We have an unhealthy society.

So let's recap with some of the lessons that nature, the greatest teacher, has taught us:

1) We are not prepared for something bigger
2) Our govt is dysfunctional
3) Too many unhealthy folks out there
4) anti-science mentality is rampant
5) supply lines are an issue
6) when we put our minds to it, things like vaccines can come quick
7) It has taught us about hygiene
8) The pandemic has resulted in an increase in divorces, so it has taught us to possibly not jump the gun with someone until one is ready
9) Has taught that the economic system is that simple to break down
10) A social safety net is really needed or needs improvement

And many more lessons. Let's just hope they stick around, the teachings!

Absolutely. All of this.

JManc Feb 14, 2021 7:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9190852)
Teachers aren't a special class.

How about the workers who have been working outside the home for the last year get the vaccine first?

And they should have been made a priority but teachers were sent home and now parents whose kids are failing their Zoom classes and politicians want them all to return to work before vaccines have been rolled out.

the urban politician Feb 14, 2021 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 9190888)
And they should have been made a priority but teachers were sent home and now parents whose kids are failing their Zoom classes and politicians want them all to return to work before vaccines have been rolled out.

To be honest, I don’t agree that teachers returning to work should require vaccination before hand. The CDC isn’t saying that, and there is already data from places where schools have been open showing that transmissions in schools has been very low if they follow the correct protocols. I do think that that is a BS talking point coming from the unions.

Furthermore, that is a slap in the face to us essential workers who have been out there dealing face to face with people since March, 2020 (healthcare workers, grocery workers, construction, utility workers, real estate agents, police and fire, etc etc) and whose lives have been completely turned upside down because we cannot rely on our kids going to school and had to scramble to figure out how to manage. We showed up to our jobs WITHOUT a vaccine for nearly a year.

So I’m sorry, but I don’t have sympathy for teachers who are under 65 and healthy who are still trying to get out of showing up for work today, in Feb 2021, knowing what we know. And the major healthcare policy-making bodies largely concur with me.

homebucket Feb 15, 2021 8:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 9190755)
If there is one thing that covid-19 has taught us... one of the many lessons from the Covid teacher, is that we as a society need to get healthier. Too many folks out there with pre-existing conditions and health issues. We have an unhealthy society.

So let's recap with some of the lessons that nature, the greatest teacher, has taught us:

1) We are not prepared for something bigger
2) Our govt is dysfunctional
3) Too many unhealthy folks out there
4) anti-science mentality is rampant
5) supply lines are an issue
6) when we put our minds to it, things like vaccines can come quick
7) It has taught us about hygiene
8) The pandemic has resulted in an increase in divorces, so it has taught us to possibly not jump the gun with someone until one is ready
9) Has taught that the economic system is that simple to break down
10) A social safety net is really needed or needs improvement

And many more lessons. Let's just hope they stick around, the teachings!

11) Anti-Asian mentality is rampant, and the pandemic has resulted in an increase in racist attacks against Asians

nito Feb 16, 2021 2:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9187728)
You're not a responsible person. You are mentally weak! Sorry, are we supposed to accept 1 year of lockdowns, if so, why? I've been on a steel prison before, a boat for 8 months. I did just fine, it made sense. These lockdowns don't.

Quote:

Originally Posted by photoLith (Post 9188134)
Take a chill pill man. I guess we’re just supposed to be confined to quarters forever until there is no rona anywhere; which ain’t ever going to happen. If you’re so scared then you can stay in a closet for the rest of time I guess if it makes you feel better.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BG918 (Post 9188144)
No kidding, I’m personally sick of the sanctimonious virtue signaling and shaming of anyone who doesn’t want to be confined to their house/apartment. Live your miserable life and let others enjoy theirs - if they want to go to a restaurant, work out in a gym, travel on a plane, etc they have that right.

Who said anything about one-year lockdowns, staying indoors forever or wanting a miserable existence?

When this threat emerged, the UK, US and countless other countries were complacent, ignorant and slow in treating the unfolding situation with the seriousness that it required. The lack of early effective action gave the virus a beachhead and successive failures have enabled it to spread, and worst of all, facilitated the virus to adapt into variants that have increased levels of transmission.

As I stated previously, the virus does not have legs, it needs people to proliferate. If we had acted decisively early on, we could have got on top of this crisis and returned to some form of normality, like New Zealand has done. Instead, selfish inconsiderate individuals and incompetent administrations opted for a half-hearted effort that didn’t put out the flames. Therefore, we have the worst of all worlds, hundreds of thousands of deaths, millions of unemployed, busted economies and businesses, and untold mental health damage. This was all completely unnecessary, and it drives me crazy that we are repeating the same mistakes and wondering why we continue to suffer the consequences.


Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9188987)
Or maybe I just don’t want to spend a cold and rainy (or snowy) winter locked down in my London flat when I don’t have to?

The fact that so many in the UK (at least the media) are looking to Australia as an example to follow makes me question whether I ever want to go back for more than packing up my stuff.

Then you are a selfish ignorant fool.

Why wouldn’t we want to be like Australia? The death toll from Covid-19 in Australia is just north of 900; far lower than the daily tallies of many western nations, and new cases are limited to half a dozen a day. Australia got on top of this disaster, and therefore been able to return to a far greater level of normality. The pertinent question we should be asking of our governments and each other is why wouldn’t we want to replicate the actions of Australia to get back to normality!

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9188987)
And yes, the situation in the UK is largely a product of the poor state of the NHS and nursing homes. The reason that elderly people with Covid needed to be discharged to care homes is that “bed-blocking” is a longstanding problem in hospitals, and with the bed shortage exacerbated by Covid, they had to go somewhere. When they get to the care homes, of course, they are often older and smaller facilities that lack the physical ability to separate and isolate infected patients.

The NHS is far from perfect, but this is not an accurate assessment of what happened. In the early days it was thought that critical care capacity would be overwhelmed, so it was decided to boost that capacity by delivering several thousand critical care beds with the construction of the Nightingale Hospitals. Yet they were never utilised in any meaningful capacity and mothballed. In what proved to be a catastrophic mistake, government guidance stipulated that patients should be discharged to care homes – even if they had tested positive – rather than moved to the Nightingale’s which were vacant. Compounding the problem in care homes was the slow response to limit outside visitor access, access to PPE, testing, etc… It was irrelevant how good care homes were if government policy was enabling the introduction and spread of a lethal virus.

Where government intervention has been limited, and the NHS took the lead – such as with the vaccine rollout – it has been a massive success.

the urban politician Feb 16, 2021 3:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by destroycreate (Post 9189040)
I spent all of December in Miami and I don't regret it one single bit. Flew biz class with points, got tested every single week, limited my social interactions, wore masks, but fuck...it was like going back to normal life again. City streets, restaurants, businesses, etc., seemed so much more vibrant and I didn't see any of the blight (boarded up store fronts, restaurants out of business, encampments) that is plaguing CA cities. It did wonders for my mental health. All the while they are somehow faring far better in terms of covid deaths and rates.

I'm pretty bitter how they're allowed to have a sense of normalcy and get on with life, whereas here in CA, we're basically living in the dark ages. Grateful outdoor dining is allowed now, but life seems far more depressing here.

:tup:

^ Yep. I think when the smoke is cleared, most sane people are going to look back and realize that the "lockdown perpetually" States got it wrong, and also let a REALLY BAD CAT out of the bag (ie allowing unilateral emergency orders from one person completely usurp personal liberties).

Florida is what I view to be a better example of how to handle things. And just for the record, I DO support mask wearing and social distancing.

Yuri Feb 16, 2021 3:41 PM

It seems the US will reach the 500,000 deaths mark today: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The brightside is the country is doing well delivering vaccines, so I hope the number of deaths to plunge on the next weeks ending this nightmare.

------------------------------------------------

Back in Brazil, it's Carnaval. Monday and Tuesday are holidays but all the street parties were cancelled. I keep attending restaurants and bars that strictly follow regulations. Masks are widely used everywhere. It's rare to see someone on streets not wearing them.

jtown,man Feb 16, 2021 9:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by homebucket (Post 9191476)
11) Anti-Asian mentality is rampant, and the pandemic has resulted in an increase in racist attacks against Asians

Actually, the incidents in the Bay area and in Chicago are mostly just criminals doing what they do. They seem to love to target elderly Chinese people.

homebucket Feb 16, 2021 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9192488)
Actually, the incidents in the Bay area and in Chicago are mostly just criminals doing what they do. They seem to love to target elderly Chinese people.

Of course it happened prior to the pandemic, but there's no denying the pandemic was another catalyst for increased racially motived crimes and xenophobic behavior against Asians. And it's not just criminals.

https://abc7news.com/tech-ceo-michae...cisco/6305099/

Quote:

The report, citing NYPD data, states that between Jan. 1 and Nov. 1, 2020, 24 coronavirus-related hate crimes were reported -- a crime category that did not exist in 2019. However, this number is eight times that of hate crimes reported against Asians in the same period the year prior to the start of the pandemic. The report goes on to say that in the first quarter of 2020, 23 arrests were made for racially motivated crimes -- 39.1 percent of which were of an anti-Asian bias nature, compared to 6.1 percent in 2019. In the third quarter, 19 hate crime arrests were made, with 20 percent being for anti-Asian crimes. The report also points out that the NYPD reported a decrease in hate crimes against other groups during the same time period.

Additionally, according to the study, between February and May 2020, the New York City Commission on Human Rights (NYCCHR) received reports of 389 coronavirus-related hate incidents. Of those, 145 involved anti-Asian sentiments, representing 37 percent of all complaints.

The study also touches upon online anti-Asian aggression, saying these hate incidents are underreported because the aggression is hate speech "as opposed to an attack on a particular individual," adding that "current online infrastructures do not track or regulate hate speech."

Historically, diseases and outbreaks have been used to rationalize racism in the past, the report reads: "Anti-Asian hate and violence are not new. Historically, diseases and outbreaks have been used to rationalize racism and xenophobia against Asian Americans and against other perceived “out” groups. Such racism and xenophobia is often caused by a confluence of factors, some of which has little to do with disease itself."
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loca...covid/2883215/

iheartthed Feb 16, 2021 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nito (Post 9191964)
Who said anything about one-year lockdowns, staying indoors forever or wanting a miserable existence?

When this threat emerged, the UK, US and countless other countries were complacent, ignorant and slow in treating the unfolding situation with the seriousness that it required. The lack of early effective action gave the virus a beachhead and successive failures have enabled it to spread, and worst of all, facilitated the virus to adapt into variants that have increased levels of transmission.

Exactly. The U.S., U.K., and much of Europe responded to the pandemic arrogantly in the beginning. The U.S. has pretty much been the poster child of what not to do at every step of the way, and it remains to be seen if the vaccine will bail us out of this situation. It has been a huge blow to the country's credibility. How will this country expect to lead other countries in the future when we were unable to adequately respond to the most urgent global disaster in a century?

the urban politician Feb 16, 2021 10:12 PM

^ :haha:

If some pissed off tech CEO suddenly went on a racist rant towards me, it would not only be weird, it would actually kind of make me laugh.

Seriously, I'm far more scared of somebody breaking into my house or trying to carjack one of my more expensive cars than being yelled at by some doofus tech CEO

Minato Ku Feb 16, 2021 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nito (Post 9191964)
Why wouldn’t we want to be like Australia? The death toll from Covid-19 in Australia is just north of 900; far lower than the daily tallies of many western nations, and new cases are limited to half a dozen a day. Australia got on top of this disaster, and therefore been able to return to a far greater level of normality. The pertinent question we should be asking of our governments and each other is why wouldn’t we want to replicate the actions of Australia to get back to normality!

There is a "slight" difference between Australia/New Zealand and European countries. Their geographical position. They are Islands and pretty removed from their surrounding countries.
A good thing in normal cases but also a bad things in case of a pandemic, European borders are open.European countires are interconnected.
Million of people cross it easily. You can't easily seal off european countries.

You should not forget the factor "luck" in a pandemic.
Remember that Italy was the first European country to close its border to China.
Italy was the first European country to establish a lockdown and yet...

jtown,man Feb 17, 2021 1:44 AM

The US and Europe didn't drop the ball, other countries just aren't testing or counting could-be-covid as Covid.

I looked at a map recently of weekly cases and many African countries are showing near zero.

Bullshit.

the urban politician Feb 17, 2021 2:11 AM

^ I think there is a culture of self-flagellation among developed Western Countries

“We’re bad! We’re not worthy! The East is wise and we are gluttonous fools!” It all started after The Karate Kid

chris08876 Feb 17, 2021 2:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9192724)
The US and Europe didn't drop the ball, other countries just aren't testing or counting could-be-covid as Covid.

I looked at a map recently of weekly cases and many African countries are showing near zero.

Bullshit.

And than you have this...

https://aws1.discourse-cdn.com/busin...0247f2174f.png

Totally believable! 100% credibility. No BS! Call in the next 20 minutes, and get not 1... but 2 data sets confirming this as true, for the low price of bull shit 99.

But in all seriousness, testing must be very bad. I find it hard to believe India's or Pakistan's numbers. China we all know they hide things and shove it under the mattress... but I do question other countries results.

Apparently Arkansas has had more cases than China and more deaths. Can you imagine? 1.4 billion folks, and a provincial rural state has more cases and deaths.

jtown,man Feb 17, 2021 2:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 9192765)
And than you have this...

https://aws1.discourse-cdn.com/busin...0247f2174f.png

Totally believable! 100% credibility. No BS! Call in the next 20 minutes, and get not 1... but 2 data sets confirming this as true, for the low price of bull shit 99.

But in all seriousness, testing must be very bad. I find it hard to believe India's or Pakistan's numbers. China we all know they hide things and shove it under the mattress... but I do question other countries results.

Exactly. Or Nigeria. I recently watched a video of a dude driving his motorcycle in crowded Lagos. About 5% of people had masks on and it busy as heck.

chris08876 Feb 17, 2021 2:32 AM

Maybe the Malaria results in super immune systems. Assuming one lives to adult hood (tons of children die before 5), those folks are exposed to a lot of fun pathogens. Malaria (P. falciparum which is the worst one and is very common), Yellow Fever, Typhoid, Zika, Dengue, Rickettsioses, good old Tuberculosis... and many more.

It builds a strong immune system!

So Corona comes along, and it doesn't stand a chance. Needs to step its game up.

IDK... possibly folks in Africa have immune systems that see Corona as a mild hazard. Years of drinking unclean water will build solid immune system. Unless one gets HIV/AIDS, but point being, probally has an influence I bet.

Its also hot in those lands.

Now I'm not saying those numbers are true, as anybody with a cranium will tell you they are undercounted, but could be African heat and immunity might play a role.

dave8721 Feb 17, 2021 4:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 9192778)
Maybe the Malaria results in super immune systems. Assuming one lives to adult hood (tons of children die before 5), those folks are exposed to a lot of fun pathogens. Malaria (P. falciparum which is the worst one and is very common), Yellow Fever, Typhoid, Zika, Dengue, Rickettsioses, good old Tuberculosis... and many more.

It builds a strong immune system!

So Corona comes along, and it doesn't stand a chance. Needs to step its game up.

IDK... possibly folks in Africa have immune systems that see Corona as a mild hazard. Years of drinking unclean water will build solid immune system. Unless one gets HIV/AIDS, but point being, probally has an influence I bet.

Its also hot in those lands.

Now I'm not saying those numbers are true, as anybody with a cranium will tell you they are undercounted, but could be African heat and immunity might play a role.

They probably aren't spending much time in indoor climate-controlled-recycled air buildings either. Mostly though they don't have the medical system to be testing to see if they have many cases and probably aren't counting or testing much of the dead either in much of the 3rd world.

homebucket Feb 17, 2021 5:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minato Ku (Post 9192592)
There is a "slight" difference between Australia/New Zealand and European countries. Their geographical position. They are Islands and pretty removed from their surrounding countries.
A good thing in normal cases but also a bad things in case of a pandemic, European borders are open.European countires are interconnected.
Million of people cross it easily. You can't easily seal off european countries.

You should not forget the factor "luck" in a pandemic.
Remember that Italy was the first European country to close its border to China.
Italy was the first European country to establish a lockdown and yet...

Honest question. How do Australia and New Zealand conduct trade being island nations, while maintaining low case counts? Or are their borders completely closed and they're relying solely on their own domestic produce and goods.

homebucket Feb 17, 2021 5:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 9192765)
China we all know they hide things and shove it under the mattress... but I do question other countries results.

Apparently Arkansas has had more cases than China and more deaths. Can you imagine? 1.4 billion folks, and a provincial rural state has more cases and deaths.

Believe it or not, China's numbers are legit. You probably won't though because "CHiNa is bAd!!" I personally know people that live there and life is back to normal. No masks except at the doctor's office, banks, and grocery stores. No social distancing. The clubs in Wuhan are alive and poppin'. It was Chinese New Year recently, and people were hanging out like normal, visiting family and friends. You incorrectly assume that COVID cases are being hid under the mattress. In reality, it's all their red envelope stashes.

Yuri Feb 17, 2021 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 9192778)
(...)

Its also hot in those lands.

Now I'm not saying those numbers are true, as anybody with a cranium will tell you they are undercounted, but could be African heat and immunity might play a role.

Yesterday, Amazonas state (4 million inh.) registered 10,000 deaths for Covid, given it a 2,500/1,000,000 death rate. Higher than Belgium, the same of New York and New Jersey states. On their pandemic peak, back in May and now once again in January, Manaus, the state capital, was registering 5x more deaths than usual. Keep in mind, Amazonas age average is much lower than Brazil's, which it's still itself a young country (33 y/o as 2020).

And here its weather chart: https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manaus#Clima. 2,300 mm of rainfall, humidity always above 80%, avg max 32C, avg min, 23C. It's on the banks of Amazon River, in the middle of the equatorial rainforest, unbearably humid and hot.

I don't think hot weather is a factor at all.

dc_denizen Feb 17, 2021 12:29 PM

It is odd . One would think the inhabitants of Manaus would be exposed to various tropical diseases too

10023 Feb 17, 2021 2:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by homebucket (Post 9192897)
Believe it or not, China's numbers are legit. You probably won't though because "CHiNa is bAd!!" I personally know people that live there and life is back to normal. No masks except at the doctor's office, banks, and grocery stores. No social distancing. The clubs in Wuhan are alive and poppin'. It was Chinese New Year recently, and people were hanging out like normal, visiting family and friends. You incorrectly assume that COVID cases are being hid under the mattress. In reality, it's all their red envelope stashes.

The Chinese already had some immunity from exposure to similar viruses. It will come out eventually.

mrnyc Feb 17, 2021 3:58 PM

^ oh sure they do doctor larper. :rolleyes:



***


just a friendly reminder from the local yokels:


https://twitter.com/MichaelRapaport/...031254023?s=20

iheartthed Feb 17, 2021 4:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by homebucket (Post 9192897)
Believe it or not, China's numbers are legit. You probably won't though because "CHiNa is bAd!!" I personally know people that live there and life is back to normal. No masks except at the doctor's office, banks, and grocery stores. No social distancing. The clubs in Wuhan are alive and poppin'. It was Chinese New Year recently, and people were hanging out like normal, visiting family and friends. You incorrectly assume that COVID cases are being hid under the mattress. In reality, it's all their red envelope stashes.

Yeah, last summer I expressed skepticism in this thread of China's numbers suddenly leveling off, but it has to be legit. They appear to be mostly back to normal.

iheartthed Feb 17, 2021 4:07 PM

Looking at the Worldometers COVID numbers this morning I noticed that the U.S. is theoretically closer to infecting the entire country than any other large country in the world. Only a handful of small countries in central and eastern Europe have higher rates of infection per capita than us.

badrunner Feb 17, 2021 4:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 9192778)
Maybe the Malaria results in super immune systems. Assuming one lives to adult hood (tons of children die before 5), those folks are exposed to a lot of fun pathogens. Malaria (P. falciparum which is the worst one and is very common), Yellow Fever, Typhoid, Zika, Dengue, Rickettsioses, good old Tuberculosis... and many more.

It builds a strong immune system!

So Corona comes along, and it doesn't stand a chance. Needs to step its game up.

IDK... possibly folks in Africa have immune systems that see Corona as a mild hazard. Years of drinking unclean water will build solid immune system. Unless one gets HIV/AIDS, but point being, probally has an influence I bet.

Its also hot in those lands.

Now I'm not saying those numbers are true, as anybody with a cranium will tell you they are undercounted, but could be African heat and immunity might play a role.

Africa has been spared mostly because they have a very young population. Their 75+ population is tiny compared to western countries. That alone would account for most of the difference, but there are other factors like low degree of personal mobility, less international travel, less globally integrated economy etc. I'm not saying the numbers coming out of Africa are entirely accurate, but there's no reason to believe that they're intentionally hiding anything either.

iheartthed Feb 17, 2021 5:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by badrunner (Post 9193258)
Africa has been spared mostly because they have a very young population. Their 75+ population is tiny compared to western countries. That alone would account for most of the difference, but there are other factors like low degree of personal mobility, less international travel, less globally integrated economy etc. I'm not saying the numbers coming out of Africa are entirely accurate, but there's no reason to believe that they're intentionally hiding anything either.

African governments also have way more experience in dealing with epidemics and pandemics.

homebucket Feb 17, 2021 5:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by badrunner (Post 9193258)
Africa has been spared mostly because they have a very young population. Their 75+ population is tiny compared to western countries. That alone would account for most of the difference, but there are other factors like low degree of personal mobility, less international travel, less globally integrated economy etc. I'm not saying the numbers coming out of Africa are entirely accurate, but there's no reason to believe that they're intentionally hiding anything either.

Also, younger populations that get COVID are more likely to be mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, and thus not get tested. So the current numbers may not truly reflect the case counts. I'm also not sure how rigorous their testing is to begin with, but either way, I don't think they're undercounting their cases intentionally as some on here are claiming.

mrnyc Feb 17, 2021 5:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by homebucket (Post 9193280)
Also, younger populations that get COVID are more likely to be mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, and thus not get tested. So the current numbers may not truly reflect the case counts. I'm also not sure how rigorous their testing is to begin with, but either way, I don't think they're undercounting their cases intentionally as some on here are claiming.

it also doesnt help accuracy when you die over there and its all labeled a french le gripe or similar. i mean post mortem investigations and autopsies arent exactly a big thing there, especially out in the country side.

Acajack Feb 17, 2021 8:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrnyc (Post 9193286)
it also doesnt help accuracy when you die over there and its all labeled a french le gripe or similar. i mean post mortem investigations and autopsies arent exactly a big thing there, especially out in the country side.

LOL WTF's a "french le gripe"?:haha:

(Note that "grippe" is the French word for influenza.)

lio45 Feb 18, 2021 4:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by homebucket (Post 9193280)
I'm also not sure how rigorous their testing is to begin with, but either way, I don't think they're undercounting their cases intentionally as some on here are claiming.

I'm not sure if you're talking about me with that comment, but in the cases I'm somewhat familiar with (like Congo), they're not really counting (under or otherwise), nor are they "intentionally" doing anything.

The cases of deliberate nonreporting (North Korea for example) are fairly rare. For most countries it's just not intentional, they don't have the resources to do it (or even afford to take Covid seriously, in some cases).

someone123 Feb 18, 2021 5:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45 (Post 9193991)
The cases of deliberate nonreporting (North Korea for example) are fairly rare. For most countries it's just not intentional, they don't have the resources to do it (or even afford to take Covid seriously, in some cases).

There are a few studies that tested "participants" in morgues in Africa and they had significant positivity for SARS-CoV-2. Example is something like this: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...0248327v1.full

(It says contrary to expectations but this actually follows my expectations... I'd be surprised if these hospitals didn't have significant numbers of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2.)

As you suggest mortality isn't the same everywhere and covid might not register as public health threat #1 in a lot of countries, partly because of younger populations but also because other threats are worse. In some countries most people are either subsistence farmers or they earn money to buy food day by day and the national government doesn't have the capacity to easily step in and support the population in a lockdown.

nito Feb 18, 2021 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 9192522)
Exactly. The U.S., U.K., and much of Europe responded to the pandemic arrogantly in the beginning. The U.S. has pretty much been the poster child of what not to do at every step of the way, and it remains to be seen if the vaccine will bail us out of this situation. It has been a huge blow to the country's credibility. How will this country expect to lead other countries in the future when we were unable to adequately respond to the most urgent global disaster in a century?

There has undoubtedly been damage to the "Western" brand, the question is whether this will be long-term.

People assume that just because most deaths have been focused on older age groups and people with pre-existing conditions, that this whole situation is overblown. Yet the number of deaths from Covid-19 amongst the 25-34 age group in the US is close to surpassing the toll from the 9/11 attacks. Several countries have been reporting that younger age groups (with no conditions) are now being hospitalised in higher numbers with more severe conditions. I have several friends who could cycle 300km+ in a day without fail, who are now struggling to do 100km because of the side-effects from long-Covid.

We should all be rightly worried if a new variant emerges that has a far more negative impact on younger age groups.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minato Ku (Post 9192592)
There is a "slight" difference between Australia/New Zealand and European countries. Their geographical position. They are Islands and pretty removed from their surrounding countries. A good thing in normal cases but also a bad things in case of a pandemic, European borders are open.European countires are interconnected. Million of people cross it easily. You can't easily seal off european countries. You should not forget the factor "luck" in a pandemic. Remember that Italy was the first European country to close its border to China. Italy was the first European country to establish a lockdown and yet...

Geography undoubtedly helps, but Australia has also shown that internal closures along state lines are possible. The difference is the political will to make tough decisions early on, instead they either weren't made, were half-hearted or too slow to be implemented to have any positive effect.

the urban politician Feb 18, 2021 3:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nito (Post 9194132)
There has undoubtedly been damage to the "Western" brand, the question is whether this will be long-term.

Nonsense. I feel like this forum is just an echo chamber for think-alikes

People from these eastern countries that you keep frolicking over are still coming and will keep coming in droves to Western nations because of its values, one of which being relatively weak Government and a relatively robust private sector. Don’t any of you know any immigrants?

These same values tend to be a shortcoming during worldwide pandemics, but there is no one-size-fits all when it comes to cultures and ways to run societies. Make no mistake, the flow of immigration is and will remain in one direction: Toward the west.

Quote:

People assume that just because most deaths have been focused on older age groups and people with pre-existing conditions, that this whole situation is overblown. Yet the number of deaths from Covid-19 amongst the 25-34 age group in the US is close to surpassing the toll from the 9/11 attacks. Several countries have been reporting that younger age groups (with no conditions) are now being hospitalised in higher numbers with more severe conditions. I have several friends who could cycle 300km+ in a day without fail, who are now struggling to do 100km because of the side-effects from long-Covid.
The deaths of Covid among the young have been overblown. You are talking anecdotes. Everybody here keeps doing this, it’s just getting silly at this point. If you can’t differentiate anecdotes from statistics then there is nothing to discuss. The mortality rate of Covid for the young is exceedingly low, and low enough that living in fear is not rational behavior (unless you are trying to protect an elderly family member, which is a different story altogether). Just remember that 130 US children died during the 2019-2020 Flu season, and yeah I know you never heard about it because it wasn’t due to Covid.

Quote:

We should all be rightly worried if a new variant emerges that has a far more negative impact on younger age groups.
No we shouldn’t. Complete, utter, fear mongering.

Quote:

Geography undoubtedly helps, but Australia has also shown that internal closures along state lines are possible. The difference is the political will to make tough decisions early on, instead they either weren't made, were half-hearted or too slow to be implemented to have any positive effect.
The only thing that I think would’ve made a difference early on is a complete quarantine of early infected cases. THAT, my friend, would work.

Everything else is just insanity propagating more insanity. Fear, irrationism, misinformation, and amateurs trying to set public policy. And the damage has been done. Friggin millions out of jobs

the urban politician Feb 18, 2021 3:33 PM

Per WHO: (IFR meaning Infection Fatality Rate, which will always overestimate true mortality rate due to there always being many undiagnosed Covid infections):

A recent (Dec 2020) systematic review and meta-analysis estimated that population IFR during the first wave of the pandemic was about 0.5% to 1% in many locations (including France, Netherlands, New Zealand, and Portugal), 1% to 2% in other locations (Australia, England, Lithuania, and Spain), and exceeded 2% in Italy. That study also found that most of these differences in IFR reflected corresponding differences in the age composition of the population and age-specific infection rates; in particular, the metaregression estimate of IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. These results were also highlighted in a December 2020 report issued by the WHO.

nito Feb 22, 2021 3:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 9194274)
Nonsense. I feel like this forum is just an echo chamber for think-alikes People from these eastern countries that you keep frolicking over are still coming and will keep coming in droves to Western nations because of its values, one of which being relatively weak Government and a relatively robust private sector. Don’t any of you know any immigrants? These same values tend to be a shortcoming during worldwide pandemics, but there is no one-size-fits all when it comes to cultures and ways to run societies. Make no mistake, the flow of immigration is and will remain in one direction: Toward the west.

Perhaps you are thinking of someone else, but I have been discussing the success of Australia and New Zealand relative to that of the UK, US and other European nations. These two countries have amongst the best rated democracies, strongest performing economies, and most successful magnets for migrants well before Covid-19, so I fail to see your point.

Australia and New Zealand didn’t even compromise their values; they merely treated this crisis with the seriousness that it needed and followed through with the actions that were required to suppress this situation from becoming a crisis.

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 9194274)
The deaths of Covid among the young have been overblown. You are talking anecdotes. Everybody here keeps doing this, it’s just getting silly at this point. If you can’t differentiate anecdotes from statistics then there is nothing to discuss. The mortality rate of Covid for the young is exceedingly low, and low enough that living in fear is not rational behavior (unless you are trying to protect an elderly family member, which is a different story altogether). Just remember that 130 US children died during the 2019-2020 Flu season, and yeah I know you never heard about it because it wasn’t due to Covid. No we shouldn’t. Complete, utter, fear mongering. The only thing that I think would’ve made a difference early on is a complete quarantine of early infected cases. THAT, my friend, would work. verything else is just insanity propagating more insanity. Fear, irrationism, misinformation, and amateurs trying to set public policy. And the damage has been done. Friggin millions out of jobs

Again, are you confusing me for someone else? Where did I say that the mortality rate for the young wasn’t low? You even quote me saying the opposite!

I suspect the difference between you, and I is that we presumably have divergent perspectives on the value of human life, but in your example, 130 deaths of children from flu are 130 too many, as are x number of deaths from car accidents, y number of deaths from gun crime, etc… Why should any death irrelevant of whether the cause be domestic violence, terrorist attack, or virus be tolerated?

We don’t need to run around like headless chickens, but the emergence of new variants which could have higher rates of transmission and/or lethality is most certainly a present and ever evolving threat. We’re not talking rocket science here – the virus needs people to spread, the more opportunities we give the virus to adapt, the more time it has to develop new mutations. If the UK authorities and society had taken this crisis with the seriousness it required, it is doubtful that the “Kent” variant would have emerged, a variant which has been demonstrated to have 70% higher rates of transmission, 30% higher rates of hospitalisation and deaths and significant antigenic escape from naturally acquired immunity. It is pretty much inevitable that worse variants will emerge the longer we fail to get on top of this crisis, so no it is not fear mongering, it is an evidence-based critique of the situation we find ourselves in.

jtown,man Feb 22, 2021 4:59 PM

More people over 100 have died in the US from Covid than people aged 40-49.

Comparing the young dead to 9/11 numbers is insane. We have more 100-year-olds who have died from Covid in the US than everyone who died on 9/11. That's a crazy statistic seeing as 100-year-olds make up a TINY portion of our population.

But we keep trying to get young people scared. It's silly. It's why the news keeps posting stories of kids dying from this. Why? Statistics show kids are the best equipped to fight this off yet they keep scaring parents into submitting to irrational ideas.


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