About 10 days ago, there was an open house at the Renaissance to show the plans and gather public comment. I attended, the turnout was pretty good. I'm not sure what the timeline is, but the plans seemed to be pretty far long.

Not sure if this was posted. I've been out of town for the past 2 weeks. But the Edison billboard in Midtown is now an advertisement for http://phxbuilt.com/. Tuft and Needle has a nice feature article on the site promoting Phoenix and why they chose to build here over Silicon Valley. Worth the read.

A lot of activity on Alta Roosevelt lately. I noticed the power lines that used to run through middle of property were finally moved so construction may be imminent and going vertical soon :tup:

Those commenting on the decline of the multifamily market in Phoenix were way off the mark.

Phoenix Metro Multifamily Sales Well Exceed Billion Mark
http://www.globest.com/sites/lisabro...ection=phoenix

just wait...:runaway:

Sure, I'll wait and things will change. Talking about now. Have fun waiting until you're right.

I never said it was going to happen tomorrow. I'm old enough to remember the last time this happened, it's not the first time banks have funded a glut of (the same product) apartment buildings that were then fighting for customers and handing out free trips to Hawaii to get units leased at fire-sale prices.

Just wait.

I'd be happy to carry on a discussion with you if you can resist the urge to type in such a condescending manner.

You'd be happy to carry on a conversation with me?

Just wait.

I'm not sure if I maybe did something to you in a former life, you've been very unpleasant toward me since I joined this site, I'm honestly unsure why. I recall maybe a month after I joined you were pretty snippy with me then as well.

If I've done something rude to you I sincerely apologize, hope we can bury the hatchet and drop the rudeness.

To be fair, "just wait" isn't a conversation starter as much as blanket assertions are, but here we are.

Biggus and I who called the apartment boom dead are amongst those who have diligently tracked the construction pipeline and saw almost zero new movement when ABI released their latest quarterly report.

We have enough diverse sources from outside articles, zoning meetings and reports, Facebook groups, insiders, and the like that this forum is the place is one of the premiere destinations for urban real estate news for the Phoenix metro area and ranks among if not the top when it comes to "you saw it here first."

While I am waiting for ABI to release their next quarterly report, history shows that there will be nothing relevant on it.

What has this forum seen since the end of Q1? The end of Q1 didn't have much new either. Six months of sluggishness is six months of sluggishness.

I felt that saying we were "way off mark" was an attempt to say we are incorrect and close the book on something that no one proclaimed to be immediate.

dtphx you say you work in commercial real estate, I must question for how long because surely if you have many years of experience you understand these things are cyclical and the same pattern repeats itself.

I think we are getting a bit in the weeds here. Do I agree that the number of proposed developments popping up for apartments seems to have slowed? Yes. But there is a TON of inventory coming on-line in Arcadia, Midtown and Roosevelt. I think it's only natural that new proposals may slow to see how the market absorbs these new apartments.

Edison and the project at the old Paz site have just started development. Union is well on it's way to completion. The project at 3rd and McDowell is IMPRESSIVE! Much larger than I imaged, with good height! The project at 3rd and Thomas is starting to pick up now that power lines have been removed.

Keep in mind, the two 19-story projects weren't proposed all that long ago. So, are new developments/proposal slowing, maybe a little. But I don't think it's by any means a bubble in the sense that there will be way too much inventory and prices will crash and we won't see new proposals for years.

Do I think there may be a pause or slow down in new proposals until the inventory is absorbed? Yes.

I think I am suggesting something slightly different than you guys are hearing.

When these apartments are completed they will all fill up, when the first leases come up for renewal people will have all of these other choices, there will be a glut in the market and things will become hyper competitive resulting in prices plummeting and vacancy rates increasing dramatically. That's my main point.

Will construction slow or stop? Yeah, it will, but that also isn't an on/off switch, it will just taper until development ceases.

I was worried about the population and where it was all coming from but the mid-decade census shows impressive population growth and there has been steady stream of businesses locating decent sized operations here for the last 6 months.

overall I think its a healthier boom but I would expect a bit of a change as more units come online, which isn't bad for renters, the prices have gotten a little high.

Biggus and Combusean: I've lived in the Valley my entire life and have been in CRE since 1998. I've seen the usual ups and downs of the market in all sectors, of course. But what fuels each run up doesn't mean its true for this cycle. By saying that the apartment pipeline is slowing a bit may be true, it doesn't necessarily represent the demand in the market. There are dozens and dozens of entities rushing around town trying to do assemble large enough parcels in the central city. That's hard to do and takes time. Right now vacancies are tight because despite all the building and projects coming online, demand will be strong for at least a few years based on the growth in the area (baring unforeseen disruptions to the economy). Will rents drop and concessions rise as vacancies rise? Of course. But the statement "just wait" indicates to me that even though market metrics are positive, you just know what's coming. Classic glass half-full thinking. That may happen but it's not relevant to current conditions. I've been part of all the ups and downs over the past two decades and one thing that I and my colleagues have noticed is that this run up is much more measured and "mature" compared to other run ups. Phoenix is filling in and growing up and the market is responding accordingly. :tup:

I don't think there has ever been a time where actual interest in downtown phoenix/central city living has been so high. There seems to be actual "winds of change" happening. In the past maybe phoenix built to a glut and a slow down or bubble was inevitable. But just because it has happened before, doesn't mean it will happen again like you've previously experienced. There is a big ol' segment of the population called "millennials", maybe you've heard of them. I think they'll keep pushing the bar of downtown living up. All of these projects will come online, those that get in will impress their friends, and they'll want to follow.

I'm probably being just optimistic, but I think things are different compared to anything we've seen in Phoenix in the past 50 years.

Do you remember the eighties? Granted there were other factors such as tax incentive removal but that still didn't change the main fact which is there was simply too much product to go around.

Apartment construction is fueled by cost of money, availability of land, and demand for product. Right now we have all three, money is cheap, there's no shortage of land, and there are plenty of people lined up to buy buildings so from your perspective yeah, things are probably gravy and appear to be on the track to stay gravy.

From my perspective it is quite a bit different, besides the fact that one of those factors could change and stall construction on proposed projects (which is actually a bit off my point). I have quite simply lost track of how many units are under construction right now and they are all the same. We have been buying <$700/mo apartment buildings as fast as we can all around central Phoenix because everything currently being built is the same product, $1500/mo one bedroom, $1,800/mo two bedroom with the same amenities. We think the low end market will soon be underserved and along with that the mid/high level market will be absolutely flooded, the likes of which NONE of us have ever seen before. I've been here my entire life as well and I've been in residential single and multi family investment my entire life, I've not seen such an oversaturation of apartments ever.

Besides the financial issues we saw in the eighties we saw an overbuilding of apartments because as you know the developers are not building them to run, they want out as fast as they can get out so as long as there is a quick profit to make they will make it. It's the second owner who typically takes the fallout and based on current market I think this is 2-3 years off at best before we see guys really losing their ass on vacancies. The market will be hurting, I promise.

Glass half-full man. Your point, again, is "just wait." Got it.

http://kjzz.org/content/313447/phoen...-roll-out-june

Update on the Grand Canalscape - hope this goes through as planned. Could really make the canals a beautiful place, and really improve a huge swatch of central Phoenix.

This is going to be a long slow transition but I hope it really takes off, You see it a little with waterfront in Scottsdale, the Papago Grande beginning to play with he idea of using the canals.

Maybe in many decades when im old and grey there will be widespread use of the canals that would be great! It just leaves me wondering why there was no interest in the canals before, why no creativity? Its not like facing the canals are a "new idea" didn't the San Antonia river walk start like in the 70's?:uhh: