New Orleans looks insane.

Washington, which used to lead the US, is now way back in the pack with fewer deaths than average per capita, though more than median.

Our regs are working, including office people like me working from home for six weeks so far.

Things are definitely getting better here in New Orleans. New cases are significantly down, and the hospitals have plenty of capacity. Even with the sharp spike in cases in late March, the hospital system was fortunately never overwhelmed. Elective procedures will start up again on Monday, and the governor has indicated that most non-essential business can reopen in a limited capacity in May.

same for nyc basically.

^^Who would ride a bus who can afford to do otherwise? Frankly, I'm worried about getting into a taxi or Uber that may have just been vacated by someone spewing viri and I certainly don't want to be on a bus with multiple people. To be honest, I'm planning on getting a rental car to return to San Francisco in about 6 weeks and even that is making me nervous (you can't wipe down the entire interior with alcohol).

How else would essential workers get to their jobs in transit-oriented areas? Parking is limited-to-nonexistent (and many transient garages are shuttered), and I'm not clear why Uber/taxi would be safer than train/bus. People aren't gonna bike super long distances. Some people still need transit.

That’s why I referred to “people who can afford to do otherwise”. Why is a taxi safer? Because it’s just you and the driver in it. Ideally, there would be a plastic shield between even these two as I understand is being done in parts of Asia.

I think we're on about the third or fourth cycle of U.S. covid-19 hotspots. The first hotspots were Washington State and California. The second NYC Metro. Third were New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago, Albany GA. The fourth looks like Boston, Florida, South Dakota, and some other places.

Interestingly, though, nobody has been as successful as containing it as Washington State. California was successful for a while, but has seen its infections rebound quite a lot. Most of the other hotspots have plateaued at a constant level of infections that is lower than peak but still quite substantial.

The plateauing indicates that a full rollback of the social distancing would cause a massive spike in cases. Since places like NYC, Detroit, and N.O. were already dangerously close to overwhelming their health care systems the first time around, if these places go back into hotspot growth mode their systems would quickly get be swamped. If you have plans for the summer, I wouldn't get my hopes up.

51,000 deaths in the US already. That's a whole Vietnam War in mere two months.

The whole thing is so depressing and without proper vaccines, this nightmare will keep going indefinitely.

Coronavirus Has Infected A 5th Of New York City, Testing Suggests

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...sting-suggests

cute!


https://twitter.com/jerm_cohen/statu...575107079?s=20

So the number of people that were infected (with most recovering without even knowing they were infected) is 10 times higher than what they thought it was, therefore the fatality rate is 10 times lower than what they thought it was.

Why isn't this bigger news?

^ Because that's kinda already been implied/known for months now. But we have no concrete data to confirm it.

Yes, the numbers are interesting but the concept was assumed.

We've been testing the people who seem to be infected, medical professionals, and relatively few others. We always knew that many others were infected (that's the reason for broad shutdowns) but didn't have even a decent sampling.

This really drives home the need for the shutdowns to continue...and I'd be even more leery of the average takeout place or random person on the street.

^ I would draw the opposite conclusion.

This confirms what many epidemiologists said back in February, and Angela Merkel was the first global leader to voice publicly. Most people will be infected sooner or later no matter what, and certainly before a vaccine exists.

If that’s the case, then what’s the difference if you get it next week or in 3 months? The only thing creating a risk of “excess deaths” was an overwhelmed healthcare system that led to people dying who could otherwise be saved. That risk is increasingly looking like it’s behind us, so the “herd immunity” strategy again becomes the more optimal balance between public health and economic, social and psychological damage.

Different casualties, however.

There’s a big difference between 20 year olds being killed in senseless fighting and people who are nearing or beyond average life expectancy succumbing to disease.

This is a cheesy video of someone reading a badly-written "poem" while various members of the Asheville Symphony Orchestra play their instruments from their homes.

• Video Link

Not gonna lie... When I watched it the first time, by the end I was a sobbing mess.

I find myself on the verge of tears a lot more lately.

Yeah, we all know we are banned from comparing the flu to Corona, so it goes without saying we should ban war and Corona comparisons, which make no sense.

Anyways, back to OT. My mayor has still not budged on allowing people to ride their bikes on the 18-mile lakefront trail. As soon as school ends I will be heading down to Arkansas to spend my money and enjoy life.

In fact the numbers suggest an IFR of around 1%, which is exactly where experts expected it to be. Unfortunately the media has been conflating CFRs with IFRs which has resulted in mass confusion.