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-   -   How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=242036)

Pedestrian Apr 14, 2020 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8893749)

I think the number of people who would use biking as an alternative to driving is way higher than the number of people currently biking. It's really an untapped source of transportation in this country.

Maybe in Norfolk. Not in San Francisco. We have had demonstrations by the organized and politically active Bicycle Coalition tying up the Friday commute downtown in order to get what they want for decades now. We have rental bikes from several companies including Ford all over downtown. We have many established bike lanes and routes. Streets have been redesigned and in at least one case cars have been banned.

But IMHO what really limits cycling in SF is geography. My city is not the Netherlands or Denmark, which is to say it isn't flat. Most bike commuting seems to be from neighborhoods popular with Millennials but that also happen to be on the flatlands along with downtown such as the Mission and Castro. You don't see many people biking from up on Twin Peaks or Pacific Heights or even to downtown from the western part of town (you do see some people biking short distances within those latter areas).

mrnyc Apr 14, 2020 11:04 PM

a silly aside, but it seems one of the earliest known uses of the ef word was during a pandemic:



https://nypost.com/2020/04/10/one-of...ague-lockdown/

Crawford Apr 14, 2020 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8893628)
No but there are many tens of thousands of drivers and only thousands of people who cycle as a primary means of transportation and yet San Francisco has demonized the drivers and slavishly gives the cyclists almost everything they demand. The result, by the way, has been gridlock on streets that used to flow smoothly.

Isn't this an argument for increasing transportation options? SF is very auto-oriented, congestion is increasing, yet remains a fairly good environment for non-auto mobility. Why not build the infrastructure? And obviously drivers benefit from others taking transit/walking/biking.

I've driven in SF, and it isn't a difficult driving city, at all. It's quite welcoming to drivers for global standards.

mrnyc Apr 15, 2020 12:11 AM

nyc daily deaths jumped back up to 778 yesterday —

— and total deaths now over 10k.

its all just beyond belief.

Steely Dan Apr 15, 2020 2:13 AM

* posts deleted *

Once again, NO POLITICS IN THIS THREAD!

take that shit to the current events toilet.

dktshb Apr 15, 2020 3:12 AM

Damn, I think Sweden will likely be the next Country that is stricken and stricken bad.

dave8721 Apr 15, 2020 4:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrnyc (Post 8893881)
nyc daily deaths jumped back up to 778 yesterday —

— and total deaths now over 10k.

its all just beyond belief.

Especially when you consider COVID-19 deaths are vastly under-counted in NYC, some estimate by as much as half. Most at-home deaths are not counted. Or at least not counted for a couple of weeks after they happen (need to wait on the coroners backlog, then be examined, then have test results...etc).
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020...irus-fdny.html
Quote:

At-home COVID-19 deaths may be significantly undercounted in New York City
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loca...nting/2368678/
Quote:

Massive Spike in NYC ‘Cardiac Arrest’ Deaths Seen as Sign of COVID-19 Undercounting
https://gothamist.com/news/surge-num...related-deaths
Quote:

Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities

Crawford Apr 15, 2020 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dave8721 (Post 8894069)
Especially when you consider COVID-19 deaths are vastly under-counted in NYC, some estimate by as much as half. Most at-home deaths are not counted. Or at least not counted for a couple of weeks after they happen (need to wait on the coroners backlog, then be examined, then have test results...etc).

No, the new estimates include at-home deaths. In fact the new numbers are quite controversial, because now nearly 40% of Covid-19 deaths in NYC have no confirmed Covid-19 determination.

The death count went from like 6,500 to 10,000 in one day due to the at-home death reclassification.

chris08876 Apr 15, 2020 12:21 PM

I read something yesterday that referenced social distancing up to 2022, and possibly even 2024, assuming a vaccine fails or they fail to find a vaccine. Social distancing until 2022 would be insanity.

the urban politician Apr 15, 2020 1:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 8894171)
I read something yesterday that referenced social distancing up to 2022, and possibly even 2024, assuming a vaccine fails or they fail to find a vaccine. Social distancing until 2022 would be insanity.

I’m not even sure how that is possible without nullifying society as we know it.

At some point we just have to accept this disease’s existence and carry on, I say. And I’m a healthcare worker!

Pedestrian Apr 15, 2020 5:11 PM

Plateauing the curve:

https://uniim1.shutterfly.com/ng/ser...970425/enhance

https://uniim1.shutterfly.com/ng/ser...970426/enhance

https://uniim1.shutterfly.com/ng/ser...970425/enhance
https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/

sopas ej Apr 15, 2020 5:19 PM

I need to put together a ninja outfit...

https://media1.tenor.com/images/9837...itemid=8797934

Starting today, everyone in all of Los Angeles County has to wear a face covering when out and about. I hadn't been driving to/from work with one, being that I usually drive by myself with the a/c on and the windows closed, but this morning I drove to work wearing mine.

Pedestrian Apr 15, 2020 5:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sopas ej (Post 8894449)
I need to put together a ninja outfit...

https://media1.tenor.com/images/9837...itemid=8797934

Starting today, everyone in all of Los Angeles County has to wear a face covering when out and about. I hadn't been driving to/from work with one, being that I usually drive with the a/c on and the windows closed, but this morning I drove to work wearing mine.

Hard to believe they mean that to apply when you are inside a car with the windows up. When I ultimately drive from Tucson to SF, I don't plan to be wearing a mask in the car.

sopas ej Apr 15, 2020 5:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8894452)
Hard to believe they mean that to apply when you are inside a car with the windows up. When I ultimately drive from Tucson to SF, I don't plan to be wearing a mask in the car.

I don't think you need to be wearing one inside a car with the windows up if you're driving alone, but I just wore it anyway.

The funny thing is, weeks ago, I started seeing solo drivers wearing face masks, and I thought it was silly. Hehe but this morning I wore one driving to work.

hauntedheadnc Apr 15, 2020 6:31 PM

My favorite coffee shop reopened today, so that was nice... I've noticed a lot of other restaurants are reopening as well, as the lockdown stretches on with no end in sight. Other restaurants are begging for help on social media, and some are just closing. Asheville has thus far lost a wine bar and a cigar bar, with more to come. A survey of 500 business owners downtown found that about 32% are planning to close up shop.

Meanwhile, in having to deal with a sick cat, I've learned how much you start to rely on pantomime and interpretive dance when your face is covered by a mask and no one can see your mouth or whether you're smiling or frowning. Lots of sweeping hand gestures.

Lastly, come hell, high water, or a global health crisis, our local ABC station, WLOS News 13, remains the not-quite-ready-for-primetime news channel:

https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...a8&oe=5EBC72CA
Source.

The funny thing is that the headline makes more sense with the typo than without it.

Buckeye Native 001 Apr 15, 2020 7:30 PM

Well, they say jacking off can cure depression... :shrug:

hauntedheadnc Apr 15, 2020 7:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001 (Post 8894612)
Well, they say jacking off can cure depression... :shrug:

Just be careful... You don't want a flood warning.

Buckeye Native 001 Apr 15, 2020 7:46 PM

:haha:

Pedestrian Apr 15, 2020 8:36 PM

Quote:

San Francisco to get at least 8,000 hotel rooms for homeless during COVID-19 pandemic
By Brock Keeling
Apr 15, 2020, 8:38am PDT

The Board of Supervisors unanimously passed an emergency ordinance Tuesday that would grant roughly 8,250 hotel rooms in the city for people affected by the stay-at-place order, with 7,000 earmarked for the city’s homeless residents

Ever since shelter-at-home orders went into effect, the city’s hotel industry has taken a major hit, with almost every SF hotel remaining vacant . . . .

The legislation requires the city to procure the hotel rooms by April 26. According to the San Francisco Examiner, an additional 500 rooms will be for discharged or transferred hospital patients who need a place to quarantine and another 750 rooms will go toward front-line workers, which are included in the 8,250 figure.

Mission Local reports that it will cost $58.6 million to rent the 8,250 rooms for one month, which includes security, food, and other room cleaning expenses. The publication also notes, “Supervisors emphasized that the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the California Office of Emergency Services could reimburse the city for up to 93.75 percent of emergency costs that it will incur in implementing the legislation.”

Mayor London Breed . . . claims that staffing the hotels for the city’s most at-risk residents, many of whom suffer from addiction or mental disorders, proved the most challenging aspect of acquiring the space.

The mayor’s plan to house homeless people inside Moscone Center, a convention center, and the Palace of Fine Arts fell apart after Street Sheet published photos of too-close sleeping mats on the floor and inadequate bathroom facilities. The plan was immediately shelved.

The new legislation still needs to work its way through several channels before going into effect, with multiple departments needing to okay it. Although counts vary, there are anywhere between 8,000 to 10,000 homeless people in the city San Francisco . . . .
https://sf.curbed.com/2020/4/15/2122...9%2520pandemic

My question is which hotels are going to be willing to rent their rooms for this purpose. It's not cost-free for them. Some of the homeless doubtless carry pests such as fleas and lice, even bed bugs. And they aren't likely to treat their new free quarters with much care or respect, one suspects.

I'm pretty sure I wouldn't want to pay SF's median room rate for a room recently vacated by a homeless mentally ill alcoholic recently living on the street unless pretty much everything in it has been replaced and the space fumigated.

montréaliste Apr 15, 2020 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8894666)
And they aren't likely to treat their new free quarters with much care or respect, one suspects.



Reminds me of what "The Who" would do to hotel rooms back in the day.

In the present case, one wonders how the who's who of homeless folk will treat their new digs.

10023 Apr 15, 2020 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 8894171)
I read something yesterday that referenced social distancing up to 2022, and possibly even 2024, assuming a vaccine fails or they fail to find a vaccine. Social distancing until 2022 would be insanity.

You would see riots and social unrest if that were even seriously proposed.

sopas ej Apr 15, 2020 11:32 PM

One positive in the US of the stay-at-home orders...

From CBS News:


March 2020 was the first March without a school shooting in the U.S. since 2002


BY SOPHIE LEWIS

APRIL 14, 2020 / 2:45 PM / CBS NEWS


March 2020 was apparently the first March in nearly two decades without a school shooting in the U.S. Schools across America have been shut down since early March as a prevention measure to slow the spread of coronavirus. Since then, kids of all ages have adjusted to homeschooling and online classes — a new normal that could extend through the rest of the school year.

For most of those students, this is one of the longest stretches in their lifetimes without a school shooting. As first reported on Twitter by Washington Post reporter Robert Klemko, there hasn't been a March without a school shooting since 2002 — the year most current high school seniors were born.

Data from the National School Safety Center and National School Safety and Security Services confirm that there have been school shootings every March since 2002. That year, a 13-year-old student brought a gun and a hit list to school but was subdued by a school resource officer deputy before he could pull the trigger.

In March 2020, there were several instances of shootings on school campuses — but none that fit the typical description of a school shooting.

According to Everytown for Gun Safety, an organization that tracks gun violence in the U.S., there were a total of seven shootings that took place on school campuses in March 2020. Four of those shootings were classified as unintentional discharges, one took place between adults on a high school football field over the weekend and two occurred on college campuses but involved no students.

[...]

Link: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronav...5S5GZWdBl6zQ3A

jd3189 Apr 16, 2020 3:41 AM

^^^ That’s basically most of my life. Interesting. I thought the school shootings really became yearly after Sandy Hook.

Jonesy55 Apr 16, 2020 9:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dktshb (Post 8894031)
Damn, I think Sweden will likely be the next Country that is stricken and stricken bad.

170 deaths yesterday in Sweden, their highest daily total so far. Scaling up for population that's roughly equivalent to around 1,100 daily deaths in a country the size of UK/France or 5,500 daily deaths in the US.

Jonesy55 Apr 16, 2020 9:53 AM

Belgium has been very heavily hit, though it could be that they seem to be recording deaths in care homes etc quite comprehensively, other countries may well have to adjust their figures upwards quite a lot in due course to capture all deaths.

Belgium population 11.46m
Confirmed cases 34,809
Deaths 4,857
Deaths per million population 419

For comparison the official deaths per million in some other hotspots

Spain 402 (Madrid 1,012)
Italy 358 (Lombardy 1,083)
France 263 (Grand-Est region 363)
UK 190 (London 341)
USA 96 (NYC 1,296)

Evo5Boise Apr 16, 2020 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sopas ej (Post 8894784)
One positive in the US of the stay-at-home orders...

From CBS News:


March 2020 was the first March without a school shooting in the U.S. since 2002


BY SOPHIE LEWIS

APRIL 14, 2020 / 2:45 PM / CBS NEWS


March 2020 was apparently the first March in nearly two decades without a school shooting in the U.S. Schools across America have been shut down since early March as a prevention measure to slow the spread of coronavirus. Since then, kids of all ages have adjusted to homeschooling and online classes — a new normal that could extend through the rest of the school year.

For most of those students, this is one of the longest stretches in their lifetimes without a school shooting. As first reported on Twitter by Washington Post reporter Robert Klemko, there hasn't been a March without a school shooting since 2002 — the year most current high school seniors were born.

Data from the National School Safety Center and National School Safety and Security Services confirm that there have been school shootings every March since 2002. That year, a 13-year-old student brought a gun and a hit list to school but was subdued by a school resource officer deputy before he could pull the trigger.

In March 2020, there were several instances of shootings on school campuses — but none that fit the typical description of a school shooting.

According to Everytown for Gun Safety, an organization that tracks gun violence in the U.S., there were a total of seven shootings that took place on school campuses in March 2020. Four of those shootings were classified as unintentional discharges, one took place between adults on a high school football field over the weekend and two occurred on college campuses but involved no students.

[...]

Link: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronav...5S5GZWdBl6zQ3A


Wow!! That was sobering to read. Never realized it had been that bad and it just goes to show you how desensitized we are to the situation now. Sad.

JoeMusashi Apr 16, 2020 2:02 PM

That is a deliberately misleading headline and statistic. When people think school shooting, they are thinking Columbine, Sandy Hook, or Parkland. They do the same thing by labeling every gangland shooting with like 4 people a "mass shooting". I don't consider some criminals that happen to also be students shooting each other over drugs/gang business to be the equivalent of Parkland.

The list of school shootings also includes pellet and BB guns, as well as accidental discharges.

bossabreezes Apr 16, 2020 2:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8894666)

I find this pretty messed up. The hotels will not be able to turn the ''guests'' away due to discrimination, but will likely be able to throw them out if they cause problems. Which they will. SF homeless are amongst the most hard-core I've ever seen.

I'm all for helping each other but when governments rely on the private sector to take care of undesirables, it shows how weak our governments really are.

Handro Apr 16, 2020 2:36 PM

Just heard Gensler let go a signicant portion of their Chicago office and like 1000 people nationally...

EDIT: 60* people in their Chicago office and 1100* nationally...

mousquet Apr 16, 2020 2:38 PM

I'm the kind of guy that likes feeling the sunlight on my skin, breathing the air outdoor, feeling a bit of wind in my hair, drinking a cup of Italian coffee with folks around me, walking in town, biking the streets... Just simple enjoyments like these.

I often happen to be contemptuous and annoying, that's my very flaws. But I'm basically not much of a violent person, like I can't beat anybody, then when I face a tough challenge like this, I'd rather feel kind of depressed, wondering - wtf is wrong with me here? I'm fucked up!

It is hard to be locked up in your home like a circus tiger in a cage. I'm starting to feel what wild animals feel when you think they are yours, while they belong to the wild.
It's been a month already here. I can feel it in my body, in metabolism. It is some extreme experience. I eat some fruit salads when I feel too low, telling me that vitamins will help carry on.

On the other hand, I've never been that focused on my daily duty. There's nothing much to do but working at the moment.
I guess that's at least one good thing about this crazy challenge.

10023 Apr 16, 2020 3:58 PM

^ Personally, I’ve been spending as much time as possible outside when the weather is nice. Everything is a call and you can do those out in the sun. But our lockdown isn’t as needlessly strict as France’s.

photoLith Apr 16, 2020 3:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 8894171)
I read something yesterday that referenced social distancing up to 2022, and possibly even 2024, assuming a vaccine fails or they fail to find a vaccine. Social distancing until 2022 would be insanity.

Where the hell did you read that? Jesus Christ that better not be the case. Well all be living under bridges and in tent cities.

chris08876 Apr 16, 2020 4:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by photoLith (Post 8895323)
Where the hell did you read that? Jesus Christ that better not be the case. Well all be living under bridges and in tent cities.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/healt...rnd/index.html

chris08876 Apr 16, 2020 4:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by photoLith (Post 8895323)
Where the hell did you read that? Jesus Christ that better not be the case. Well all be living under bridges and in tent cities.

Also here is the report: https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb5793

10023 Apr 16, 2020 4:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 8895348)

Nonsense. You don’t set policy with the objective of no one getting sick.

There are only measures that are justified as long as the outbreak threatens the stability of the healthcare system. And that period is ending. Beyond that, life goes back to normal and if you get sick you get treatment.

dave8721 Apr 16, 2020 6:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 8895385)
Nonsense. You don’t set policy with the objective of no one getting sick.

There are only measures that are justified as long as the outbreak threatens the stability of the healthcare system. And that period is ending. Beyond that, life goes back to normal and if you get sick you get treatment.

Unless the only reason the healthcare system's stability is no longer threatened is because of the social distancing measures. Once those go away, the healthcare system goes right back to being threatened. Its not like the disease has gone anywhere. Its actually a by-product of the social distancing. Everyone stayed at home and there was no herd immunity developed. If we just go back to normal, the disease will come right back, ICU's will fill right back up and then we will have to go back to social distancing again. Its a catch-22.
There are 2 solutions, 1 is absolutely shut everything down completely for a month or so, so the disease has no one to spread into and basically dies out. This would work locally for a little while at least until it got re-introduced from somewhere else (See China)
Solution 2 is just let it run its course, kill millions but develop herd immunity.
The U.S. and most of the west is trying to exist somewhere between these 2 solutions which is sort of the worst of both worlds. We basically have the world trying to somewhat stay working until some sort of treatment is found (this would presumably be before a vaccine is found, a safe vaccine should take years to develop).

iheartthed Apr 16, 2020 8:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dave8721 (Post 8895580)
Solution 2 is just let it run its course, kill millions but develop herd immunity.
The U.S. and most of the west is trying to exist somewhere between these 2 solutions which is sort of the worst of both worlds. We basically have the world trying to somewhat stay working until some sort of treatment is found (this would presumably be before a vaccine is found, a safe vaccine should take years to develop).

Also, "herd immunity" isn't a sure-fire bet. There is still uncertainty about whether someone who has been infected can be re-infected. Or, if there is some level of immunity developed from being infected, how long it lasts.

10023 Apr 16, 2020 8:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dave8721 (Post 8895580)
Unless the only reason the healthcare system's stability is no longer threatened is because of the social distancing measures. Once those go away, the healthcare system goes right back to being threatened. Its not like the disease has gone anywhere. Its actually a by-product of the social distancing. Everyone stayed at home and there was no herd immunity developed. If we just go back to normal, the disease will come right back, ICU's will fill right back up and then we will have to go back to social distancing again. Its a catch-22.
There are 2 solutions, 1 is absolutely shut everything down completely for a month or so, so the disease has no one to spread into and basically dies out. This would work locally for a little while at least until it got re-introduced from somewhere else (See China)
Solution 2 is just let it run its course, kill millions but develop herd immunity.
The U.S. and most of the west is trying to exist somewhere between these 2 solutions which is sort of the worst of both worlds. We basically have the world trying to somewhat stay working until some sort of treatment is found (this would presumably be before a vaccine is found, a safe vaccine should take years to develop).

What do you think “shutting everything down” looks like without causing people to starve? We are doing as much as we can. The only thing you’re allowed to do is buy groceries and go for a walk.

And the “do nothing” scenario, if it means a million deaths globally, is really not that bad. That’s 0.013% of the world’s population, a tiny fraction of annual deaths, and mostly the elderly and sick.

You can make ventilators and create ICU capacity (basically field hospitals) a lot faster than you can develop a vaccine. And there is also the triage option, which hasn’t seriously been pursued, but is preferable to a prolonged shutdown of the global economy (even from a public health standpoint).

the urban politician Apr 16, 2020 8:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 8895695)
What do you think “shutting everything down” looks like without causing people to starve? We are doing as much as we can. The only thing you’re allowed to do is buy groceries and go for a walk.

And the “do nothing” scenario, if it means a million deaths globally, is really not that bad. That’s 0.013% of the world’s population, a tiny fraction of annual deaths, and mostly the elderly and sick.

You can make ventilators and create ICU capacity (basically field hospitals) a lot faster than you can develop a vaccine. And there is also the triage option, which hasn’t seriously been pursued, but is preferable to a prolonged shutdown of the global economy (even from a public health standpoint).

Huh? Where did you get the idea that the death rate of C-19 is 0.013%?

There is no indication that it will be close to that low. Probably between 10-100 times higher than that.

I’m just as frustrated as you are. But even if we build out more hospital beds and have enough ventilators, we don’t have enough hospital and healthcare staff to service the number of patients that would overwhelm the system if we just stopped all social distancing altogether.

Ultimately, though, I agree with you that we have to do something different from a complete lockdown for 2 years. That’s obviously a nonstarter and I personally won’t be able to do it, as I’m sure is true with tens of millions of others.

I think the best thing is to relax the rules and get the Governors and Mayors out of the way of mandating lockdowns and closures with the exception of gatherings of over 50 people, and use an aggressive social messaging campaign to convince people to limit social interaction, practice social distancing, and wear masks in public as much as possible. Also, testing is VITAL! We’ve got to have ubiquitous testing capability everywhere, just like we do for Influenza. The Feds have dropped the ball majorly on this last one.

hauntedheadnc Apr 16, 2020 8:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 8895669)
Also, "herd immunity" isn't a sure-fire bet. There is still uncertainty about whether someone who has been infected can be re-infected. Or, if there is some level of immunity developed from being infected, how long it lasts.

Or if the virus just somehow goes dormant and then re-emerges and makes you sick over and over again. Some of the articles I'm reading make it sound as though it acts almost like herpes or something -- except whenever it flares up you get pneumonia instead of a sore.

iheartthed Apr 16, 2020 8:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hauntedheadnc (Post 8895729)
Or if the virus just somehow goes dormant and then re-emerges and makes you sick over and over again. Some of the articles I'm reading make it sound as though it acts almost like herpes or something -- except whenever it flares up you get pneumonia instead of a sore.

That is an absolutely terrifying thought. It would mean that, without a cure or us all locking ourselves away, it would eventually infect us all.

Pedestrian Apr 16, 2020 9:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonesy55 (Post 8895052)
they seem to be recording deaths in care homes etc quite comprehensively, other countries may well have to adjust their figures upwards quite a lot in due course to capture all deaths.

That adjustment has been happening on a rolling basis in the US. New York did it this week. They apparently not only added nursing home figures but the ones I've been talking about where there was a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 but not any kind of test.

Pedestrian Apr 16, 2020 9:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hauntedheadnc (Post 8895729)
Or if the virus just somehow goes dormant and then re-emerges and makes you sick over and over again. Some of the articles I'm reading make it sound as though it acts almost like herpes or something -- except whenever it flares up you get pneumonia instead of a sore.

In fact, the immunity seems to have a limited duration (this is all still under study so what I'm saying are some preliminary judgements). Guesses I've seen are that antibody levels fall after a year or two. But then you'd have what's called an anamnestic response: The body doesn't forget antigens, including germs, it has previously encountered even though it may stop producing defenses if it stops seeing them for a while. In such a response, antibodies are rapidly produced against the repeat encounter with the antigen rather than taking the 10 days or more it does the first time. The result may be that you get sick again but in a much milder way.

This is the way it tends to work with many infections including viral ones. There are certain exceptions like Herpes and HIV that have found ways around the body's defenses. But so far I've seen nothing to suggest other coronaviruses have done anything like that.

Pedestrian Apr 16, 2020 9:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 8895735)
That is an absolutely terrifying thought. It would mean that, without a cure or us all locking ourselves away, it would eventually infect us all.

Only in movies do infections kill off the whole population. It's not even in the interest of the virus to kill its host. In cases where an infection can be deadly for a defenseless population, over time the deadliness of the germ tends to attrit because the "fittest" germ is the least deadly one, the one that leaves its host alive to host it.

But we will have a vaccine for coronavirus. It does not appear to scientists to be an especially difficult virus to make a vaccine against. For one thing, its "corona" is a protein coat that helps it enter human cells. That coat makes it vulnerable to antibody attack.

Pedestrian Apr 16, 2020 9:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 8895695)
What do you think “shutting everything down” looks like without causing people to starve? We are doing as much as we can. The only thing you’re allowed to do is buy groceries and go for a walk.

And the “do nothing” scenario, if it means a million deaths globally, is really not that bad. That’s 0.013% of the world’s population, a tiny fraction of annual deaths, and mostly the elderly and sick.

You can make ventilators and create ICU capacity (basically field hospitals) a lot faster than you can develop a vaccine. And there is also the triage option, which hasn’t seriously been pursued, but is preferable to a prolonged shutdown of the global economy (even from a public health standpoint).

As I just said, there will be a vaccine.

There will also be antiviral treatments, probably several different ones from different makers.

Within, I'd guess, 2 years this will be a preventable and treatable disease, and it will get more so as, over time, companies develop new antivirals and, perhaps, new vaccines (no vaccine is 100% effective and just as the current polio vaccine is better than what Jonas Salk produced, the first one for coronavirus probably won't be the last one).

But the real threat is that the circumstances that produced this virus will likely produce others. What we really need will be "plug-in" techniques for producing antivirals and vaccines. Once you have the genetic code of the virus (we can get that quite quickly now) and its molecular configuration and mode of attacking human cells (we have those for coronavirus now), some sort of AI program can generate candidate drugs and vaccines to fight it. And we would also need rapid platforms to test these drugs and vaccines. The way we do it now is just too slow. Just as we learned how to "test" nuclear weapons using computer modeling, we need something like that to test drugs and get them approved for use. Or perhaps we need to just learn to accept short duration trials for drugs against deadly diseases.

iheartthed Apr 16, 2020 9:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8895749)
Only in movies do infections kill off the whole population. It's not even in the interest of the virus to kill its host. In cases where an infection can be deadly for a defenseless population, over time the deadliness of the germ tends to attrit because the "fittest" germ is the least deadly one, the one that leaves its host alive to host it.

But we will have a vaccine for coronavirus. It does not appear to scientists to be an especially difficult virus to make a vaccine against. For one thing, its "corona" is a protein coat that helps it enter human cells. That coat makes it vulnerable to antibody attack.

I didn't say "kill" I said "infect". If covid-19 is a chronic disease then we will all eventually get it because it is highly infectious. If we all get it then it will probably kill far more of us than any model is currently projecting...

Handro Apr 16, 2020 9:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8895749)
Only in movies do infections kill off the whole population. It's not even in the interest of the virus to kill its host. In cases where an infection can be deadly for a defenseless population, over time the deadliness of the germ tends to attrit because the "fittest" germ is the least deadly one, the one that leaves its host alive to host it.

But we will have a vaccine for coronavirus. It does not appear to scientists to be an especially difficult virus to make a vaccine against. For one thing, its "corona" is a protein coat that helps it enter human cells. That coat makes it vulnerable to antibody attack.

That's heartening.

The North One Apr 16, 2020 10:47 PM

What if this was a virus we couldn't recover from or our bodies couldn't kill off completely? We would be so fucked. I don't get how we have some viruses that stay in our bodies for the rest of our lives while others our immune system can kill.

jd3189 Apr 16, 2020 11:13 PM

^^^ Some viruses, like HIV, infect cells in our immune system and constantly mutate to avoid attack. Others like herpes ( especially the varicella zoster variant that causes chickenpox) hide in our dermatome nerve regions and pop up years later as painful shingles.

And then, you have the collateral effects of the immune system on the body itself, which is what kills most people with coronavirus. The pneumonia is a result of immune cells damaging normal lung tissue as they are trying to kill infected tissue.

In a nutshell, as long as we keep experimenting with animals that have unique zoonotic diseases, we will continue to expose to viruses and bacteria that can potentially screw us over. Whether it was a wet market or a lab in Wuhan, the Chinese government needs to control this shit. This, HIV, Swine flu, bird flu, MERS, SARS, etc are all giving us a message: we need to stop fucking around with nature or nature will fuck us up in the worse possible way. Dying slowly from an infectious disease is one of the worse ways to go out.

suburbanite Apr 17, 2020 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd3189 (Post 8895832)
In a nutshell, as long as we keep experimenting with animals that have unique zoonotic diseases, we will continue to expose to viruses and bacteria that can potentially screw us over. Whether it was a wet market or a lab in Wuhan, the Chinese government needs to control this shit. This, HIV, Swine flu, bird flu, MERS, SARS, etc are all giving us a message: we need to stop fucking around with nature or nature will fuck us up in the worse possible way. Dying slowly from an infectious disease is one of the worse ways to go out.

I mean, you could have said the same thing thousands of years ago as older diseases like Smallpox originated from humans beginning to live in close proximity to herding animals. 100's of millions of people have been wiped out by viruses likely transferred from cattle and pigs. We tend to have a historically euro-centric view that draws the lines at those animals that we've built up immunity to over a long period of time.

It will be interesting to see if China actually carries through with bans on exotic animal sales after this. It's all been lip service before. East Asia weaning itself off wild animal consumption would do wonders for endangered ecosystems everywhere. The amount of sharks killed to be used as a tasteless cracker in a wedding soup makes my blood boil.


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