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-   -   How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=242036)

accord1999 Mar 29, 2020 3:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliNative (Post 8877279)
Can they clean/sterilize them so they can be reused?

It seems possible with UV light or warm, dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/9F3oXcE.png

https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/com...n_be/?sort=new

chris08876 Mar 29, 2020 4:11 AM

NYC State of Emergency : Driving By Lenox Hill, NYU & Bellevue Hospitals (March 28, 2020)

Video Link


Makeshift morgue can be seen.

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 7:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by accord1999 (Post 8877483)
It seems possible with UV light or warm, dry air.

There are probably many ways. Besides those you mentioned, there's ozone, ethylene oxide gas, microwaves and, I'm sure others.

I have an ozone generator at home that cleans my CPAP gear. Hospital low temp sterilizers (necessary for equipment with rubber and other materials that can't take heat) use ethylene oxide. I've read microwave radiation also works which is why I microwave my newspaper and now my mail.

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 7:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 8877498)
NYC State of Emergency : Driving By Lenox Hill, NYU & Bellevue Hospitals (March 28, 2020)

Video Link


Makeshift morgue can be seen.

Can you see this video? I'm not seeing embedded youtube videos any more which is why I'm also posting the full URL. I just noticed, though, that if I click on where it says "video link" I can see it.

CaliNative Mar 29, 2020 8:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8877297)
Stocks: Not now but near the lows (or if we revisit them) I bought calls in Medtronic (makes ventillators--MDT), Baxter (makes IV fluid and a wide range of medical supplies--BAX), Charles River Labs (arms supplier to the biotech industry--CRL), Thermo Fisher Scientific (makes the key machine that runs PCR tests for coronavirus--TMO). Not buying major pharma because I already have plenty of a closed end fund, THW, that owns them (and another that owns Regeneron--HQH) but did you catch the interview with the CEO of Sanofi I posted?

I wouldn't know where to get N95 masks now--everyone has scoured the market. I bought 25 of them online back in January--hopefully enough since they can be worn multiple times. I plan to wear mine mainly in closed spaces--that darned elevator.

I also posted an interview with the CEO of Owens & Minor which makes face masks detailing how they hope to ramp production. They are already running their production lines 20 hours per day (he says they have to shut down 4 hours for maintenance).

I personally don't see why they can't be sterilized and re-used, but I'm a little out of date. My niece is currently an ER nurse and I asked her the same question today. Hasn't responded yet.

I think a retest of the lows is likely, so I started buying a few SPY puts last week (I had quite a few back in early March so did well with them when the market broke down a few weeks ago). But I do like many of the pharma stocks still (MRK, NVS, SNY and smaller GILD). Should hold up well. Pay good dividends as well. As far as mask makers go, 3M and Honeywell make the N95s in big demand, but the masks are just a small part of their business (larger lately). A purer play in masks and other protective gear is Canadian company Alpha ProTech (APT). I just saw a report on CNN that APT have started making a lot of N95s at a new plant in Utah. They own the Canadian market. Have some Hormel shares--people can't get enough of the canned food, including Spam. The good old standards like KO & PEP should hold up even if the market returns to the lows or even breaks below them (SPY $180-200???). But the worst of the crash was probably the day the Dow fell almost 3000. Once the market seems to bottom might buy some infrastructure plays--CAT, etc. Infrastructure spending should pick up once the covid goes away to put people to work. War on potholes. Also Ag commodities like corn & wheat do seem very cheap. Might buy some. The peak covid may disrupt normal planting, so supplies might be constrained. CORN & WEAT & DBA look like good ETFs to buy now--they also offer call options which are cheap. CORN Aug & Nov calls look like a winner.

Question about the masks. I bought some Curad antiviral surgical masks a few months ago for the flu season. They do claim to filter out the viruses, but they have the loose edges so air can get in through the sides. I wonder if the sides can be taped with duck tape or some other tape like that? Even if the masks don't block all the viruses, they do prevent me from touching my mouth, nose and eyes (have glasses) which is the way the virus gets in. So they are useful. As far as sterilizing the masks for reuse, would a few minutes in an oven at 180-200 degrees F. do the trick? I also wear surgical gloves and carry Purel sanitizer. I am more prepared than most. Looks foolish, but who cares? It pays to be a germaphobe in these times. I bet the virus peaks by middle or end of April, but the number of U.S. cases could exceed 1,000,000 or more. Pretty bad. But by May, there will be hope, but it will take years to get back to "normal". After the 1918 "Spanish" flu pandemic, things got going in the Roaring '20s. People do forget, but it may take a while. When I was a kid, they had the scary summer polio outbreaks--every kid back then feared wnding up in an iron lung. Then Salk and later Sabin vaccines came along and everything got better. Hopefully soon there will be a drug or treatment for covid (remdesivir?), and later a vaccine. Hopefully we will be better prepared for the next one. I am an optimist, but the next few weeks could be grim.

the urban politician Mar 29, 2020 3:13 PM

I called a number of local restaurants last night to carry out (Saturday evening!) and nobody was picking up the phone.

This is not good. If this lasts beyond another month, I imagine a lot of these places will simply be out of business.

SIGSEGV Mar 29, 2020 3:24 PM

I just got an email from my large apartment building that they won't be charging late fees this month and will be donating a portion of one-time payments to a local food bank. That's nice of them I guess.

jmecklenborg Mar 29, 2020 4:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 8877679)
I called a number of local restaurants last night to carry out (Saturday evening!) and nobody was picking up the phone.

This is not good. If this lasts beyond another month, I imagine a lot of these places will simply be out of business.


I am surprised by which places are open for carry out and which aren't. For example, last night I walked past a Ruth's Chris Steakhouse that was doing carry-out. Who gets steak for carryout?

SteveD Mar 29, 2020 4:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 8877679)
I called a number of local restaurants last night to carry out (Saturday evening!) and nobody was picking up the phone.

This is not good. If this lasts beyond another month, I imagine a lot of these places will simply be out of business.

We tried to support local last night and gave up. Our favorite pub was out of our 1st, 2nd and 3rd choices, and the next two places we called the phone just rang and rang and no one picked up. I had a feeling this was going to be the case. This morning I awoke to two of those three places posting on Facebook in so many words, "thanks for all the love people, we tried to make this work but it's not working so unfortunately we're closing for good until further notice".

The North One Mar 29, 2020 4:55 PM

New York has the biggest one day increase in deaths since the pandemic started.

https://www.nytimes.com./2020/03/29/...rk-update.html

KevinFromTexas Mar 29, 2020 5:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8877576)
Can you see this video? I'm not seeing embedded youtube videos any more which is why I'm also posting the full URL. I just noticed, though, that if I click on where it says "video link" I can see it.

I'm not sure what the reason for that is. It's happening to me as well.

sopas ej Mar 29, 2020 5:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg (Post 8877709)
I am surprised by which places are open for carry out and which aren't. For example, last night I walked past a Ruth's Chris Steakhouse that was doing carry-out. Who gets steak for carryout?

That's how it's been where I live too; some places have full-on closed "until further notice," while others do provide take-out/delivery. And many drive-thru fast-food restaurants are still operating as drive-thru only.

How's everyone holding up? I've been looking up 1960s Bollywood videos:

Video Link

JoninATX Mar 29, 2020 6:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One (Post 8877759)
New York has the biggest one day increase in deaths since the pandemic started.

https://www.nytimes.com./2020/03/29/...rk-update.html

Sadly there is much we can stop it. By the time it's all over we could see millions dead.

tdawg Mar 29, 2020 6:47 PM

Dr. Fauci said this morning that the death toll in the country could reach 100k - 200k. That's a horrifying number.

SIGSEGV Mar 29, 2020 7:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tdawg (Post 8877892)
Dr. Fauci said this morning that the death toll in the country could reach 100k - 200k. That's a horrifying number.

That sounds like a best case scenario to me, unfortunately.

chris08876 Mar 29, 2020 7:06 PM

For NJ today.

https://aws1.discourse-cdn.com/busin...76d373b440.png

BG918 Mar 29, 2020 7:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV (Post 8877919)
That sounds like a best case scenario to me, unfortunately.

Statistically we could see well over a million deaths. Some models, like this one from the Imperial College of London, predict potentially over 2 million deaths in the United States.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03/...t--in-detail-/

chris08876 Mar 29, 2020 8:10 PM

Video Link


Quote:

The nation's most populous state is bracing itself for a surge in coronavirus cases. Health officials predict Los Angeles could face New York-level crisis. Danya Bacchus reports.

chris08876 Mar 29, 2020 8:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8877576)
Can you see this video? I'm not seeing embedded youtube videos any more which is why I'm also posting the full URL. I just noticed, though, that if I click on where it says "video link" I can see it.

Yeah I can see it.

I've also had that issue as well in the past. Its hit or miss with me. Some days it works, other times, I have to click the video link.

IDK if SSP is having issues with the embedding process, but I think it should be looked into. I hear other folks also have similar issues.

Edit: I put a thread up in the forum issues. Maybe the mods or web admins can look into it. Its been going on for like a month+ I've noticed.

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 8:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliNative (Post 8877589)
I think a retest of the lows is likely, so I started buying a few SPY puts last week (I had quite a few back in early March so did well with them when the market broke down a few weeks ago). But I do like many of the pharma stocks still (MRK, NVS, SNY and smaller GILD). Should hold up well. Pay good dividends as well. As far as mask makers go, 3M and Honeywell make the N95s in big demand, but the masks are just a small part of their business (larger lately). A purer play in masks and other protective gear is Canadian company Alpha ProTech (APT). I just saw a report on CNN that APT have started making a lot of N95s at a new plant in Utah. They own the Canadian market. Have some Hormel shares--people can't get enough of the canned food, including Spam. The good old standards like KO & PEP should hold up even if the market returns to the lows or even breaks below them (SPY $180-200???). But the worst of the crash was probably the day the Dow fell almost 3000. Once the market seems to bottom might buy some infrastructure plays--CAT, etc. Infrastructure spending should pick up once the covid goes away to put people to work. War on potholes. Also Ag commodities like corn & wheat do seem very cheap. Might buy some. The peak covid may disrupt normal planting, so supplies might be constrained. CORN & WEAT & DBA look like good ETFs to buy now--they also offer call options which are cheap. CORN Aug & Nov calls look like a winner.

I'm leery of buying mask and other acute PPE suppliers because I suspect within months their products could be no longer in shortage and will eventually be in oversupply. But for those who must buy them, Owens & Minor is a US small-cap heavily into those. I agree with most of the rest of what you said and own KO calls as well as ADM (there's your corn and wheat). Thinking there may eventually be an infrastructure stimulus, I also sold puts in CAT and URI and may buy some calls.

Quote:

Question about the masks. I bought some Curad antiviral surgical masks a few months ago for the flu season. They do claim to filter out the viruses, but they have the loose edges so air can get in through the sides. I wonder if the sides can be taped with duck tape or some other tape like that? Even if the masks don't block all the viruses, they do prevent me from touching my mouth, nose and eyes (have glasses) which is the way the virus gets in. So they are useful. As far as sterilizing the masks for reuse, would a few minutes in an oven at 180-200 degrees F. do the trick? I also wear surgical gloves and carry Purel sanitizer. I am more prepared than most. Looks foolish, but who cares? It pays to be a germaphobe in these times.
Yes, you can tape the sides of your masks--medical people do it all the time. As for sterilizing them, DON'T PUT THEM IN THE OVEN. PUT THEM IN THE MICROWAVE (assuming they don't have any metal), but not for too long. 15-20 seconds will probably do it.

Quote:

Microwave or autoclave treatments destroy the infectivity of infectious bronchitis virus and avian pneumovirus but allow detection by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction
G. Elhafi, C. J Naylor, C. E. Savage and R. C. Jones*
Department of Veterinary Pathology, University of Liverpool, Leahurst, Neston, South Wirral, CH64 7TE, UK

A method is described for enabling safe transit of denatured virus samples for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) identification without the risk of unwanted viable viruses. Cotton swabs dipped in avian infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) or avian pneumovirus (APV) were allowed to dry. Newcastle disease virus and avian influenza viruses were used as controls. Autoclaving and microwave treatment for as little as 20 sec destroyed the infectivity of all four viruses. However, both IBV and APV could be detected by reverse transcriptase (RT)-PCR after autoclaving and as long as 5 min microwave treatment (Newcastle disease virus and avian influenza viruses were not tested). Double microwave treatment of IBV and APV with an interval of 2 to 7 days between was tested. After the second treatment, RT-PCR products were readily detected in all samples. Swabs from the tracheas and cloacas of chicks infected with IBV shown to contain infectious virus were microwaved. Swabs from both sources were positive by RT-PCR. Microwave treatment appears to be a satisfactory method of inactivating virus while preserving nucleic acid for PCR identification.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/...eedAccess=true

Quote:

Can Your Microwave at Home Kill Viruses?

The short answer is YES. In fact, there is research on using the microwave in your kitchen to kill lethal viruses like HIV (1). How much for how long?

First, there’s the power of your microwave. This is measured in watts. The higher the watts, the shorter the cooking time. The above study used a wattage of 800. The average microwave oven these days has a wattage of about 1,000 (from my review of what’s being sold on Google). It seems hard to buy a microwave with less than 700 watts, so yours likely has more than enough power.

Second, for how long do you need to cook? The above study observed the destruction of the virus at 2 minutes at 800 watts. So 2 minutes in the average microwave should be more than enough time.

How About Coronaviruses?

Another study looked at the coronavirus called IBV (Avian Coronavirus) and a kitchen microwave (wattage not reported but they noted that this was a kitchen model) (2). The researchers couldn’t isolate this coronavirus (meaning it was dead) with an exposure of as little as 5 seconds!

How Does this Work?

Viruses contain plenty of hydroxyl groups that vibrate as shown in the animation above. These produce heat. Most experts believe that it’s the heat that really kills the virus. However, the one study above that shows that 5 seconds works, may mean it’s more than the heat.

My Recommendations?

We know that the coronavirus is deactivated by heat (3). 56C (132 F) reduces the alive virus by 10,000 times by 15 minutes. Hotter temps will kill more virus more quickly. Hence, I would heat your food for 2 minutes or so, getting it boiling hot. For example, I was reheating chili which I microwaved for 2 minutes until I saw it begin to boil. I then took it out and cooled it off by stirring it which took a few minutes and then jumped in!

https://regenexx.com/blog/coronaviru...l-coronavirus/

The problem with microwaving is that some things that can catch on fire or melt (certain plastics) and metal, of course, arcs. I think that may preclude microwaving for several minutes but you can experiment a little. I'm leaning on the research that says as little as 5 seconds can do it. I've found that microwaving my newspaper 15 seconds on a side doesn't ignite it or do much harm at all. One other poster said he's doing his 20 seconds on a side.

There's research on microwaving sponges to kill viruses that concludes that minutes, not seconds are needed but germs get into the interior of sponges. With newspapers or masks, they'd all be on the surface. Like I said, do some experimenting with how long you can blast the mask without doing any damage.

jtown,man Mar 29, 2020 8:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BG918 (Post 8877969)
Statistically we could see well over a million deaths. Some models, like this one from the Imperial College of London, predict potentially over 2 million deaths in the United States.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03/...t--in-detail-/

Haven't they dramatically curtailed that number in recent days? They keep getting cited for some weird reason.

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 8:45 PM

We tend to be a North America-focused site, but let's move abroad for a minute:

Quote:

Britain’s Creaking National Health System Gears Up for Coronavirus Crisis
By Max Colchester and Alistair MacDonald
March 29, 2020 7:00 am ET

LONDON—A vast convention center in east London is being turned into a sprawling hospital that can handle up to 4,000 patients. Thousands of retired nurses and doctors are being drafted back to work. The British army is delivering protective clothing to dozens of hospitals around the country.

As the new coronavirus spreads here, Britain’s tightly funded National Health Service is taking drastic action to manage a crisis that some worry will overwhelm it.

. . . in disasters, the NHS has advantages: It is highly centralized and so can make wholesale changes to the way it operates. This means “the NHS is very good in a crisis,” said Nigel Edwards, chief executive of the Nuffield Trust, a health think tank. This allowed it to cancel thousands of operations to free up bed space. It is also preparing to marshal half-a-million volunteers to help deliver medicines to peoples’ homes and ferry the infirm to hospitals.

Furthermore, the provision of free health care should ensure people who are sick don’t continue work and spread the virus because they can’t afford treatment or worry about paying medical bills.

Going into the pandemic, U.K. hospital bed numbers had halved in three decades to 140,000, according to the King’s Fund, a health care charity.

More than 90% of hospital beds were occupied for all but four days of the 2017-18 winter, according to the British Medical Association, the doctors’ trade union . . . .

Since the NHS was founded in 1948, the average annual real increase in funding has been 3.6% a year, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. But between 2010 and 2018 the annual increase dropped to 1.3% as the government mended its finances following the financial crisis.

The U.K. had 2.1 acute hospital beds—those where a patient receives treatment for severe injuries or illnesses—for every 1,000 inhabitants. That is among the lowest among members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, according to 2017 data, and compares with 2.4 beds per 1,000 in the U.S. Other estimates, however, suggest that the numbers of beds capable of handling the most serious intensive-care cases are far higher stateside, and U.K. hospitals have just 8,000 ventilators—although the government says a further 8,000 will be acquired in coming weeks*.

Britain is still at a relatively early stage in the spread of coronavirus, with experts saying infections should peak in about three weeks, but preparation at the NHS hasn’t been smooth . . . . patients with nonemergency surgery appointments that their procedures had to be canceled, including many with cancer.

Nationwide, the NHS ordered the cancellation of operations to free up 33,000 beds. The NHS has already requisitioned private hospitals and is repurposing three vast convention centers to hold the sick, including the one in London that should open next week. In total the health service has added extra capacity equivalent to 50 hospitals, said NHS Chief Executive Simon Stevens on Friday, brushing off criticism that the British health service is underprepared compared to other countries.

The government’s medical advisers say that, with the country’s lockdown in place since March 23 the number of deaths related to the virus could be limited to 20,000. If so, the national system should cope—but hospitals in some areas could be overloaded.

Among the areas potentially at risk is the southwest of England. The region has the fewest critical-care beds in the country, and would need six times more beds, or an additional 1,900, to deal with a severe outbreak of coronavirus, according to medical-data firm Edge Health. Parts of the southwest also have the oldest population in the U.K., the demographic that has suffered most elsewhere . . . .
https://www.wsj.com/articles/britain...d=hp_lead_pos8

*Compare this number of ventillators to the 30,000 ADDITIONAL ventillators Gov. Cuomo says NYC needs by itself

IluvATX Mar 29, 2020 8:53 PM

I heard that the virus dies around 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Does this mean that it will die out completely in the summer?

mrnyc Mar 29, 2020 9:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IluvATX (Post 8878045)
I heard that the virus dies around 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Does this mean that it will die out completely in the summer?

hopefully you are right, but i wouldn't take to heart anything from on the fly observations or rumors like that right now. it wouldn't die out completely though. in fact it could just go dormant and come back worse. lets take that as a bit of hope for now.

chris08876 Mar 29, 2020 9:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IluvATX (Post 8878045)
I heard that the virus dies around 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Does this mean that it will die out completely in the summer?

Makes me wonder if possibly inducing a fever via certain drugs can be an effective measure against this virus. Like a controlled high dose of MDMA which will raise body temperature, but in a controlled setting. Or anything really that inhibits the body's temperature regulation (fever inducing). I suppose it would also result in hypertension, but just an idea. I wonder if medically inducing a fever would be some sort of treatment option.

chris08876 Mar 29, 2020 9:16 PM

https://aws1.discourse-cdn.com/busin...c5232ea9a.jpeg

https://aws1.discourse-cdn.com/busin...dba0c515f.jpeg

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 9:17 PM

Quote:

Tents crowd Tenderloin, even as SF tries to keep people apart during coronavirus outbreak
Phil Matier March 29, 2020 Updated: March 29, 2020 11:51 a.m.

If you want to see the challenges and limitations of enforcing San Francisco’s shelter-in-place order and observing social distancing, take a walk through the Tenderloin.

Since Mayor London Breed’s March 16 public health order, tents filled with homeless people have sprouted up along Hyde, Eddy, Turk and Jones streets — all with the quiet blessing of the city. Lines for the neighborhood’s free kitchens and methadone clinics stretch for blocks, overwhelming staff attempts to maintain a 6-foot distance between people.

And throughout the day and night, neighborhood residents — some crowded together in small apartments — mill about the sidewalks, pretty much as usual.

“We got to sell stuff to get food, to get high — and everyday life,” said Diana Hardnett, as she sat with two friends, tending to boxes of razors, used clothing and other small items spread out on a blanket at the corner of Turk and Hyde streets on Wednesday morning.

A few feet away, a police officer handed out flyers to tent dwellers explaining the need for safe distancing, as a Public Works crew performed its daily sidewalk scrub-down.

“I wear my mask and gloves. I don’t touch anyone,” said crew supervisor Fernando Mendoza, a father of three. “And I’m careful not to brush up against the tents.”

It’s not a pretty picture. But even with the challenges and health questions the presence of the tents raise, Healthy Streets Operations Center director Jeff Kositsky said the city has little choice.

For starters, the city’s homeless shelters and Navigation Centers are maxed out. Even hospitals are feeling the pinch as the homeless increasingly seek shelter in emergency room waiting areas.

Hence, the return of the tents after years of trying to keep them off the sidewalks.

“But we are trying to keep them apart and limit them to five tents to a block,” Kositsky said, pointing to the tent-free corner where Hardnett had sold her goods the day before.

Not that the problem has gone away. At Hyde and Eddy, three police officers were trying to break up a row of four side-by side-tents whose occupants had refused to budge the day before.

“Touch my tent again, and I’ll have the dog on you,” said one homeless man who was sharing a tent with a large pit bull.

No one touched the tent, and for the next 10 minutes a sergeant calmly engaged the man while repeatedly urging him — without success — to “just move the tent.”

Under law, police may issue misdemeanor citations for violations of the public health order to keep a safe distance. However, the Police Department’s official policy also states that line officers are to focus “on education, rather than enforcement.”

“We can’t cite them, we can’t arrest them. We can’t do anything but tell them they need to listen to us,” said one of the cops as they moved on to another row of tents . . . .

https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/11/24/...ery_xlarge.jpg
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...p-15163140.php

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 9:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrnyc (Post 8878069)
hopefully you are right, but i wouldn't take to heart anything from on the fly observations or rumors like that right now. it wouldn't die out completely though. in fact it could just go dormant and come back worse. lets take that as a bit of hope for now.

"Rumors" can be easily checked for evidence to support of refute them.

These experiments were done with SARS-CoV-1 but there's no particular reason to think SARS-CoV-2 wouldn't be similar.

Quote:

The Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Viability of the SARS Coronavirus
K. H. Chan ,1 J. S. Malik Peiris,1 S. Y. Lam,1 L. L. M. Poon,1 K. Y. Yuen,1 and W. H. SetoAcademic Editor: Alain Kohl
Received 25 Nov 2010
Revised 31 Jul 2011
Accepted 31 Jul 2011
Published 01 Oct 2011

Abstract
The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces were studied. The dried virus on smooth surfaces retained its viability for over 5 days at temperatures of 22–25°C and relative humidity of 40–50%, that is, typical air-conditioned environments. However, virus viability was rapidly lost (>3 log10) at higher temperatures and higher relative humidity (e.g., 38°C, and relative humidity of >95%). The better stability of SARS coronavirus at low temperature and low humidity environment may facilitate its transmission in community in subtropical area (such as Hong Kong) during the spring and in air-conditioned environments. It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS.
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

Quote:

Stability of SARS coronavirus in human specimens and environment and its sensitivity to heating and UV irradiation.
Duan SM1, Zhao XS, Wen RF, Huang JJ, Pi GH, Zhang SX, Han J, Bi SL, Ruan L, Dong XP, SARS Research Team
Author information
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences : BES, 31 Aug 2003, 16(3):246-255
PMID: 14631830

Abstract
The causal agent for SARS is considered as a novel coronavirus that has never been described both in human and animals previously. The stability of SARS coronavirus in human specimens and in environments was studied.Using a SARS coronavirus strain CoV-P9, which was isolated from pharyngeal swab of a probable SARS case in Beijing, its stability in mimic human specimens and in mimic environment including surfaces of commonly used materials or in household conditions, as well as its resistance to temperature and UV irradiation were analyzed. A total of 10(6) TCID50 viruses were placed in each tested condition, and changes of the viral infectivity in samples after treatments were measured by evaluating cytopathic effect (CPE) in cell line Vero-E6 at 48 h after infection.The results showed that SARS coronavirus in the testing condition could survive in serum, 1:20 diluted sputum and feces for at least 96 h, whereas it could remain alive in urine for at least 72 h with a low level of infectivity. The survival abilities on the surfaces of eight different materials and in water were quite comparable, revealing reduction of infectivity after 72 to 96 h exposure. Viruses stayed stable at 4 degrees C, at room temperature (20 degrees C) and at 37 degrees C for at least 2 h without remarkable change in the infectious ability in cells, but were converted to be non-infectious after 90-, 60- and 30-min exposure at 56 degrees C, at 67 degrees C and at 75 degrees C, respectively. Irradiation of UV for 60 min on the virus in culture medium resulted in the destruction of viral infectivity at an undetectable level.The survival ability of SARS coronavirus in human specimens and in environments seems to be relatively strong. Heating and UV irradiation can efficiently eliminate the viral infectivity.
https://europepmc.org/article/med/14631830

BnaBreaker Mar 29, 2020 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IluvATX (Post 8878045)
I heard that the virus dies around 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Does this mean that it will die out completely in the summer?

Well, temperatures were in the nineties today all over Central America and The Caribbean... so look tomorrow I guess to see if the virus miraculously disappears there tomorrow (it won't.)

C. Mar 29, 2020 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 8878076)

Why is Iran above Spain in that graphic?

sopas ej Mar 29, 2020 10:39 PM

The city of Pasadena supplanted its regular parking signs in its business districts with 20 minute parking signs for food orders/pickups during this COVID-19 pandemic.
https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...d6&oe=5EA543E1
Photo by me

We decided to go to our one of our go-to fast food places for lunch today.
https://scontent-lax3-2.xx.fbcdn.net...0e&oe=5EA6B153
Photo by me

Mendocino Farms empty of sit-down customers during this COVID-19 pandemic.
https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...1d&oe=5EA6E173
Photo by me

When I go to Mendocino Farms, this is what I often order: The Avocado & Quinoa Superfood Ensalada with roasted chicken breast. Mmmm, mmmm!
https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...7d&oe=5EA79679
Photo by me

mrnyc Mar 29, 2020 11:06 PM

^ thats a good idea and fast work to get the signs up :tup:



Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8878106)
"Rumors" can be easily checked for evidence to support of refute them.

These experiments were done with SARS-CoV-1 but there's no particular reason to think SARS-CoV-2 wouldn't be similar.


unfortunately as of now there's no particular reason to just assume it is either.

its starting to show up in africa, recently so maybe we can see something about that over there sooner than summer. :shrug:

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BnaBreaker (Post 8878140)
Well, temperatures were in the nineties today all over Central America and The Caribbean... so look tomorrow I guess to see if the virus miraculously disappears there tomorrow (it won't.)

No, of course it won't because there are many nooks and crannies, indoors and out, where it is not directly exposed to ambient temps and solar UV. But outdoors, where it IS exposed to those plus high humidity, the surfaces may be largely sterilized and that's some help.

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrnyc (Post 8878184)
unfortunately as of now there's no particular reason to just assume it is either.

its starting to show up in africa, recently so maybe we can see something about that over there sooner than summer. :shrug:

As a member of an entire family of viruses to which these experiments seem to apply, I'd say there IS reason to think it's no different from its siblings.

But let's be clear. I am not suggesting it's going to abate in summer or anything like that. I don't think it is. I am referring to ways to artifically kill the virus through application of heat or humidity such as some people may want to do with items they bring home from stores or even their delivered newspaper (as I am doing--microwaving it).

mrnyc Mar 29, 2020 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8878186)
As a member of an entire family of viruses to which these experiments seem to apply, I'd say there IS reason to think it's no different from its siblings.

and as an assumption, a hope and a guess, good or not, i'll wait for the evidence to support that you also mention. meanwhile...

and yes, cook the food. so we are left with common sense for now. :shrug:

jtown,man Mar 29, 2020 11:15 PM

What are we suppose to take away from those death rates by country? Does it reveal which country is testing more or the quality of their healthcare...or something else?

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8878195)
What are we suppose to take away from those death rates by country? Does it reveal which country is testing more or the quality of their healthcare...or something else?

It should be largely independent of testing since COVID-19 can be fairly accurately diagnosed in the absence of testing, especially as flu season, which has similar symptoms, wanes for seasonal reasons. The death rate should be a factor of (a) the prevalence of the virus (what everybody wants to know) and (b) the quality and sophistication of the available health care.

This is why most experts consider hopsitalization rates and death rates a better measure of local disease prevalence than testing at the levels we are currently doing it around the world. I will repeat a figure a group of modelers came up with early on (not sure if they still agree with it): the true prevalence of coronavirus infection in a community can be estimated by multiplying the deaths by 800.

If you look at "death rates" in terms of percentages of COVID-19 patients dying, as shown in the graph posted above, that should be mainly a function of quality of care and demographics. The Italian health care system was pretty good before COVID but is clearly overwhelmed as may be those in Spain and Iran. Such factors as population mean age and smoking prevalence may have something to do with high rates in France, Spain and Italy also (and perhaps other countries). I'm not sure on the Netherlands--I always think of them as being pretty fit (all that bike riding and such) but they may have an older mean age.

Yuri Mar 29, 2020 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IluvATX (Post 8878045)
I heard that the virus dies around 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Does this mean that it will die out completely in the summer?

There are already thousands of cases in equatorial climate, including deaths: Brazilian Amazon, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia.

The North One Mar 29, 2020 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IluvATX (Post 8878045)
I heard that the virus dies around 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Does this mean that it will die out completely in the summer?

You mean outside of a host right?

Internal body temperature is well over that.

montréaliste Mar 30, 2020 12:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One (Post 8878256)
You mean outside of a host right?

Internal body temperature is well over that.

Lol.

sopas ej Mar 30, 2020 3:40 AM

Takeout Indian food for dinner tonight (my partner and I have really adapted to the stay at home order :P ).

Malai Kofta on the left, Kerala Fish Curry on the right.
https://scontent-lax3-2.xx.fbcdn.net...e8&oe=5EA571A9
Photo by me

dave8721 Mar 30, 2020 3:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8878026)
Haven't they dramatically curtailed that number in recent days? They keep getting cited for some weird reason.

That 2 million number that keeps getting quoted was the estimate if we did nothing. Obviously we have not done nothing, we have closed just about all business etc. The study also showed the drastic reduction in deaths if drastic measures were taken (where the whole flatten the curve came from). The 100k to 200k was a more realistic number (we didn't do as drastic as they recommend but we did better than doing nothing).

dave8721 Mar 30, 2020 3:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IluvATX (Post 8878045)
I heard that the virus dies around 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Does this mean that it will die out completely in the summer?

If that were the case we should be doing the opposite of shelter in place. We (in South Florida at least) should be doing "Stay outside at all costs, and do not go into your AC-ed homes and offices and trains and cars and restaurants which is where the virus actually is"

craigs Mar 30, 2020 4:01 AM

We fled San Francisco last Saturday for a family vacation property. Not sure when we will return.

SIGSEGV Mar 30, 2020 4:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dave8721 (Post 8878420)
That 2 million number that keeps getting quoted was the estimate if we did nothing. Obviously we have not done nothing, we have closed just about all business etc. The study also showed the drastic reduction in deaths if drastic measures were taken (where the whole flatten the curve came from). The 100k to 200k was a more realistic number (we didn't do as drastic as they recommend but we did better than doing nothing).

Some places are doing a lot. Some others less so...

SLO Mar 30, 2020 7:11 AM

I travel every Sunday from San Diego to the central coast, usually on Sundays about a 4 1/2 to 4 3/4 hours. Right now it takes 4:10 because of no traffic slow downs.

The hotel I stay at, I've watched their occupancy dip to +/-20%. They have closed their pool/spa and no longer serve breakfast. All restaurants are take out or drive through only. City beach parking lots are now closed.

In California new home construction is exempted from the states, stay home orders, deeming it an essential industry. I have had no subcontractors who have missed any time on job sites.

Overall the cities feel half empty and I'm sure pollution emissions are way down.

Lear Mar 30, 2020 7:52 AM

Berlin:

23. February: A leading epidemiologist at Berlin Charité university hospital assumes that a pandemic disease because of COVID-19 in Germany cannot be avoided
29. February: ITB 2020, Worlds largest tourism convention (starting 04. March) is cancelled
01. March: Corona infection confirmed in Berlin for the first time
11. March: Major Football Matches are cancelled
13. March: All cultural events are cancelled
17. March: All schools and clubs are closed
18. March : Chancellor Merkel gives TV speech "State of the Nation" claiming: Germany is confronted with biggest challenge since 1945
20. March: First Corona death in Berlin (man aged 95) is confirmed
21. March: 1025 infections in Berlin (3.6 Million population) are confirmed
22. March : Nationwide restrictions for the population are in place, no gatherings of more than 2 people in public spaces are allowed
25. March: Traffic at 2 major airports dropped by 95%
29. March: 11 Corona deaths in Berlin are confirmed, 2337 infection cases are confirmed

Today: The city streets are empty. Nature is recovering in inner districts. The frst mammoths have re-settled in Berlin ....:rolleyes:

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QUwYFJLSE...na-Mammuts.jpg

Pedestrian Mar 30, 2020 8:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs (Post 8878423)
We fled San Francisco last Saturday for a family vacation property. Not sure when we will return.

I moved my auto rental reservation to return back a week to early May. We'll see how things are going by then. Actually, I'd rather be hiding in my SF apartment but I'm terrified of having to use an elevator, potentially closed in a box with someone else for a couple minutes. If they cough during the ride I might pass out. I've bought N95 masks, latex and vinyl gloves, goggles, all sorts of PPE, and ordered isopropyl alcohol and aloe to make hand sanitizer, all for if I go back.

muppet Mar 30, 2020 10:20 AM

Flyover of a deserted London (watch hi def). You're allowed to go out for one exercise a day

Video Link

Crawford Mar 30, 2020 12:00 PM

Why is Germany doing so well with death rates? Really impressive figure.

A generally healthy country, but very old and high rate of smoking.


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