SkyscraperPage Forum

SkyscraperPage Forum (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/index.php)
-   City Discussions (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=24)
-   -   How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=242036)

Pedestrian Apr 13, 2021 7:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sopas ej (Post 9247090)
From the Los Angeles Times:

. . . The autumn-and-winter surge in California tore through many lower-income and heavily Latino communities, leaving behind a high death toll. These communities were particularly hit hard because many residents live in crowded homes and have jobs requiring them to leave home, exposing them to a higher risk of infection.

The intensity of the autumn-and-winter wave, however, has resulted in a large number of survivors who now have protection against coronavirus infections and COVID-19.

Officials estimate about 38% of L.A. County residents have been infected with the coronavirus since the start of the pandemic. And Rutherford said he suspects there are parts of L.A., such as in Boyle Heights and South L.A., in which half of residents have been infected.

Rutherford said it’s possible that California could reach something approaching herd immunity by June 15.

This is true but it doesn't explain the difference between urban California and the NY/NJ/PA area which has been repeatedly devastated by the virus and must have as high a percentage of survivors with some level of immunity as LA County as well as a relatively high percentage of people vaccinated.

If anyplace in the country should be approaching "herd immunity" by now it should be that part of the east coast which was struck early and hard and is again being hit hard.

This is what I find puzzling. I wish there were a serious and thorough report available as to whether there are a significant number of reinfections or persons infected who have been vaccinated. It worries me that one thing that could explain the situation is a virus mutant escaping the immunity generated either naturally by earlier viral strains or by the vaccines.

Pedestrian Apr 13, 2021 7:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9247501)
Yes and no. Population density itself is not really a factor, but reliance on public transportation, which is linked to population density, certainly is.

Expensive real estate in cities like NYC and London is probably a factor as well. For example indoor dining is inherently more problematic because most restaurants are cramped with lots of tables close together, and more people are likely to live in shared housing with roommates.

I would implicate public transit dependency and multi-person/multigenerational households. I don't think enough cities in either the US or UK have yet opened indoor dining (my understanding is it's closed in the UK and it still is in CA) to implicate that. But especially cities with large numbers of poor and/or immigrant families often have lots of people under one roof and all it takes is one of those people to catch the virus at work or in some other activity in the community like riding transit, bring it home and everybody gets it.

10023 Apr 13, 2021 7:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9247527)
But aren't restaurants in large cities mandated to have social distancing and capacity limits like anywhere else?

Sure, but that’s much less practical in a tiny restaurant in the West Village than it is in a Cheesecake Factory in suburban Dallas.

Obviously I would much rather eat at the former, but the latter is more able to adapt to this “social distancing” BS.

10023 Apr 13, 2021 7:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9247539)
I would implicate public transit dependency and multi-person/multigenerational households. I don't think enough cities in either the US or UK have yet opened indoor dining (my understanding is it's closed in the UK and it still is in CA) to implicate that. But especially cities with large numbers of poor and/or immigrant families often have lots of people under one roof and all it takes is one of those people to catch the virus at work or in some other activity in the community like riding transit, bring it home and everybody gets it.

In the U.K., the data last fall showed that far more people caught Covid by returning to the office than by going to restaurants, pubs, cafes and gyms combined. But that was without restaurants at anything like full capacity.

In Florida restaurants have been 100% open with no social distancing for like 9 months now and the numbers aren’t really any worse than several states that have had strict lockdowns, so make of that what you will.

sopas ej Apr 13, 2021 8:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9247539)
I don't think enough cities in either the US or UK have yet opened indoor dining (my understanding is it's closed in the UK and it still is in CA) to implicate that.

Depending on what tier the county is in, most of California opened indoor dining on March 15, but at reduced capacity. LA County is in the orange tier, which means restaurants can allow indoor dining at 50% capacity or a maximum 200 people, whichever is fewer. My partner and I have already eaten indoors at restaurants a few times already, but we're still preferring to eat outside, just to be safe, being that we're not fully vaccinated yet.

I'm not sure how updated this map is, but this ABC7 link shows you which California counties are in what tier: https://abc7news.com/california-stay...kdown/6393906/

And of course come June 15, according to Governor Newsom, California will eliminate the tiers and fully reopen the whole state; masks will just still be required to go inside businesses for the time being.

Pedestrian Apr 13, 2021 8:22 PM

Big day: The US today passed the UK (30% to 29.8%) in what Bloomberg defines as vaccine "population coverage"*

*“Population covered” divides the doses administered for each vaccine type by the number of doses required for full vaccination.

The UK is still way ahead in percentage of population given one or more doses and way behind in percentage of population "fully vaccinated".

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

homebucket Apr 13, 2021 8:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sopas ej (Post 9247614)
Depending on what tier the county is in, most of California opened indoor dining on March 15, but at reduced capacity. LA County is in the orange tier, which means restaurants can allow indoor dining at 50% capacity or a maximum 200 people, whichever is fewer. My partner and I have already eaten indoors at restaurants a few times already, but we're still preferring to eat outside, just to be safe, being that we're not fully vaccinated yet.

I'm not sure how updated this map is, but this ABC7 link shows you which California counties are in what tier: https://abc7news.com/california-stay...kdown/6393906/

And of course come June 15, according to Governor Newsom, California will eliminate the tiers and fully reopen the whole state; masks will just still be required to go inside businesses for the time being.

We've reached the point where dining outdoors is preferable even during pre-pandemic times. The weather is so nice lately. Of course, there will be the threat of wildfires soon, so that might put a damper on outdoor dining.

homebucket Apr 13, 2021 8:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9247501)
Yes and no. Population density itself is not really a factor, but reliance on public transportation, which is linked to population density, certainly is.

Expensive real estate in cities like NYC and London is probably a factor as well. For example indoor dining is inherently more problematic because most restaurants are cramped with lots of tables close together, and more people are likely to live in shared housing with roommates.

So in other words, population density.

10023 Apr 13, 2021 8:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by homebucket (Post 9247638)
So in other words, population density.

Well not really. There is probably a strong correlation with overall population density, but that doesn’t make it a causal relationship as you know.

Pedestrian Apr 13, 2021 8:50 PM

Let's talk about THIS (which hit Wall Street pretty hard early today before the news was tempered a bit) and which is serious if not reversed soon because the one-shot J&J vaccine has been seen as the solution to immunizing hard-to get groups like the homeless, illegal immigrants and so forth. Many such people will not show up for second doses.

Quote:

U.S. Seeks to Pause J&J Covid-19 Vaccine Use After Rare Blood-Clot Cases
By Peter Loftus and Thomas M. Burton
Updated April 13, 2021 1:27 pm ET

U.S. health authorities recommended a pause in the use of Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine in order to investigate rare but severe cases of blood clots, a setback to vaccination efforts racing against virus variants.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced the move Tuesday, after finding that six women between the ages of 18 and 48 years who got the vaccine had developed blood clots and one died. More than 6.8 million doses have been administered in the U.S., the agencies said.

The decision prompted the U.S. government to suspend at its vaccination sites administration of J&J’s vaccine, a federal health official said, while states and other authorities scrambled to adjust.

The government’s review may only take a few days, health authorities said. A panel of outside experts will meet Wednesday to review the matter for the CDC, while the FDA will also conduct an investigation.

J&J said Tuesday it is aware of an extremely rare disorder involving people with blood clots in combination with low platelets in a small number of people who received its vaccine. J&J said it is working with health authorities and medical experts.

The company also said it has decided to delay the rollout of its vaccine in Europe, which had been planned for later this month . . . .

J&J’s vaccine “makes up less than 5% of the recorded shots in arms in the United States to date,” . . . .
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-see...d=hp_lead_pos1

Quote:

For each of the six clotting cases, symptoms occurred six to 13 days post-vaccination . . . . The six cases all occurred among women between 18 and 48 years, suggesting younger women might be at higher risk. A similar pattern was seen with clotting side effects among people given AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine . . . .

The J&J vaccine, like the shot from AstraZeneca, uses a new technology to help people’s immune systems mobilize against the new coronavirus. The two viral-vector vaccines contain a virus that causes the common cold, but which has been rendered harmless. That virus is engineered to include genetic instructions that trigger a protective immune response.

The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines use a different technology . . . .
https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-j-ast...article_inline

The condition in question is called "thrombotic thrombocytopenia" (platelets are also called "thrombocytes" so the name means "clots with a reduced number of platelets" which can occur basically when the platelets are used up forming clots.

An article published in the New England Journal of Medicine discusses the situation:

Quote:

Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia after ChAdOx1 nCov-19 Vaccination
April 9, 2021
Andreas Greinacher, M.D., Thomas Thiele, M.D., Theodore E. Warkentin, M.D., Karin Weisser, Ph.D., Paul A. Kyrle, M.D., and Sabine Eichinger, M.D.

Abstract

BACKGROUND
Several cases of unusual thrombotic events and thrombocytopenia have developed after vaccination with the recombinant adenoviral vector encoding the spike protein antigen of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (ChAdOx1 nCov-19, AstraZeneca). More data were needed on the pathogenesis of this unusual clotting disorder.

METHODS
We assessed the clinical and laboratory features of 11 patients in Germany and Austria in whom thrombosis or thrombocytopenia had developed after vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCov-19. We used a standard enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to detect platelet factor 4 (PF4)–heparin antibodies and a modified (PF4-enhanced) platelet-activation test to detect platelet-activating antibodies under various reaction conditions. Included in this testing were samples from patients who had blood samples referred for investigation of vaccine-associated thrombotic events, with 28 testing positive on a screening PF4–heparin immunoassay.

RESULTS
Of the 11 original patients, 9 were women, with a median age of 36 years (range, 22 to 49). Beginning 5 to 16 days after vaccination, the patients presented with one or more thrombotic events, with the exception of 1 patient, who presented with fatal intracranial hemorrhage. Of the patients with one or more thrombotic events, 9 had cerebral venous thrombosis, 3 had splanchnic-vein thrombosis, 3 had pulmonary embolism, and 4 had other thromboses; of these patients, 6 died. Five patients had disseminated intravascular coagulation. None of the patients had received heparin before symptom onset. All 28 patients who tested positive for antibodies against PF4–heparin tested positive on the platelet-activation assay in the presence of PF4 independent of heparin. Platelet activation was inhibited by high levels of heparin, Fc receptor–blocking monoclonal antibody, and immune globulin (10 mg per milliliter). Additional studies with PF4 or PF4–heparin affinity purified antibodies in 2 patients confirmed PF4-dependent platelet activation.

CONCLUSIONS
Vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCov-19 can result in the rare development of immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia mediated by platelet-activating antibodies against PF4, which clinically mimics autoimmune heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. (Funded by the German Research Foundation.)
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104840

When people talk about other than immediate allergic reactions to vaccines, what is usually feared is some type of auto-immune phenomenon. According to the German research, these recombinant adenovirus vector vaccines from J&J and AstraZeneca seem to be causing the development of platelet-activating antibodies against platelet factor 4 in rare individuals, for some reason all younger women (so far).

The situation may ultimately come down to deciding whether 6 cases out of 6.8 million doses is sufficient to suspend use of the vaccine or, perhaps, limit its use to men over a certain age.

jtown,man Apr 13, 2021 8:56 PM

6 out of 6.8 million.

Horrible for those six people, obviously, but this is the government being overly cautious and nothing more.

Pedestrian Apr 13, 2021 8:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9247680)
Well not really. There is probably a strong correlation with overall population density, but that doesn’t make it a causal relationship as you know.

Agreed. The case in CA's Central and Imperial Valleys is an example. These are areas with overall low population densities but they are also places where immigrant agricultural workers live in crowded, shared housing. There are similar though less extreme examples in French "suburbs" or other places where various factors cause people to share housing with many others but not necessarily in places with overall dense populations.

the urban politician Apr 13, 2021 8:59 PM

^ Yes, exactly, I think pausing for a few days to analyze may be prudent, but this is in no way enough to stop its use altogether.

Pedestrian Apr 13, 2021 9:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9247693)
6 out of 6.8 million.

Horrible for those six people, obviously, but this is the government being overly cautious and nothing more.

Yes, but if we do continue using the J&J vaccine on the populations I mentioned--the homeless, undocumented immigrants and so on (anyone who may be difficult to get back for a second dose)--will we be seen (and accused by the media) of giving these less fortunate people a "second best" or inferior shot? I think you can bet on it.

iheartthed Apr 13, 2021 9:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9247501)
Yes and no. Population density itself is not really a factor, but reliance on public transportation, which is linked to population density, certainly is.

Expensive real estate in cities like NYC and London is probably a factor as well. For example indoor dining is inherently more problematic because most restaurants are cramped with lots of tables close together, and more people are likely to live in shared housing with roommates.

The worst outbreaks in the U.S. have occurred in states that are among the least urbanized.

jtown,man Apr 13, 2021 9:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9247709)
Yes, but if we do continue using the J&J vaccine on the populations I mentioned--the homeless, undocumented immigrants and so on (anyone who may be difficult to get back for a second dose)--will we be seen (and accused by the media) of giving these less fortunate people a "second best" or inferior shot? I think you can bet on it.

True. I don't know how to get around that but I know for sure I was disappointed when I found out I wasn't getting the JJ shot.

So plenty of people will still take that tiny risk even when they have the facts, I sure would have.

SIGSEGV Apr 13, 2021 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan (Post 9246984)
That's because "cases" are EXTREMELY dependent on how much a given state is testing.

covid deaths give a much clearer picture of the extent of an outbreak in a given area.



Alabama doesn't test. It has the 4th LOWEST testing rate in the nation.

Yet it has is the 10th HIGHEST covid death rate in the nation.



If you don't test your population, you're not gonna find much covid.

but if the people are still dying at higher than average rates, then you've got a lot of covid going around,

it just ain't being discovered at the same rate it is in other places that are all-in on testing.

testing notwithstanding, it's completely possible that more contagious variants simply haven't made it there yet. with some luck, they might be able to beat them by vaccinating quickly enough.

Pedestrian Apr 13, 2021 10:42 PM

Quote:

Covid: Younger Brazilians fall ill as cases explode

Concern is growing in Brazil about the rising number of young people who are critically ill in hospital with Covid-19.

Research suggests more than half of patients being treated in intensive care last month were under 40 . . . .
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-la...erica-56723439

Will we ever get past the idea that only old people get really sick with COVID?

jtown,man Apr 13, 2021 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9247839)
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-la...erica-56723439

Will we ever get past the idea that only old people get really sick with COVID?

Has Brazil vaccinated their old yet? If so, this is not and should not be surprising. Of course, young people will make up a larger portion of those hospitalized if the old are vaccinated. This makes complete sense.

iheartthed Apr 13, 2021 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9247911)
Has Brazil vaccinated their old yet? If so, this is not and should not be surprising. Of course, young people will make up a larger portion of those hospitalized if the old are vaccinated. This makes complete sense.

It's significant because Brazil is in the midst of its worst spike in deaths of the entire pandemic.


All times are GMT. The time now is 7:36 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.