I was out around 4:30 this afternoon to pick up some cat food at PetSmart and groceries after that. My route took me along portions of Mopac Expwy and some arterials that are normally jammed at that time of day. To get to my usual PetSmart would have normally taken about 30 minutes at this time of day, but it took 10 minutes at most. Mopac and the other streets were nearly empty. With it being dark and rainy, it just didn't seem real.

So at PetSmart, a guy checking out kept sniffling and rubbing his nose, and then he used the pad to key in his PIN when paying with a debit card. The cashier was watching, as were all of the customers behind him. The cashier chastised him and then wiped down everything he touched. Of course, he may have just had an ordinary cold, but at this point, it's not safe to assume that. I covered my hands in sanitizer three times before I left the place, and then when I got home. Fortunately I was about 10 feet behind the guy.

BTW, most of the cases in Austin have been people in their 20s and 30s. There's been a lot of lack of seriousness among younger people, with the potential result that they may be infecting those who are more likely to become seriously ill or die. My understanding, though, is that even some of the younger people have been very ill and hospitalized. I would especially be concerned if I were a younger person who had had previous serious health problems.

Unfortunately NYC-like conditions may come to certain cities. Especially in places that haven't taken the measures earlier.

My run to the supermarket last Friday the guy ahead of me in line was wearing a mask but used his uncovered fingers to punch the screen on the credit card reader. I said to him, "I see you're concerned because you're wearing a mask but there's risk in touching the card reader screen." And he said, "Oh I'm wearing the mask to protect YOU because I have a cold." That worried me even more. Fortunately I was wearing cotton gloves.

I think Florida could really have a problem because Gov. deSantis has been quite Trumpian in his approach to this--shutting down I-10 to Louisianans but coming very late to the game of halting the Spring Break revelry. And I still get the feeling from all my Florida relatives that they are rather casual about this. My niece lets her kids ride their bikes around the neighborhood (the beach in their county is closed) and they are teens--who knows where they go and what they do (like to a convenience store for drinks and snacks etc). On the other hand, their Mom, my niece, is a veterinarian and at her practice they have stopped pet owners from coming inside: They greet them in the parking lot and a tech carries the pet inside for treatment or whatever it came for.

^^^^

Yeah folks need to take it seriously, nationwide, because the thing I fear is once NJ and NY/NYC reach their peak, and let's say the cases are on the decline along with the deaths... the situation stabilized in other words... how other states may impede the success of "X" state.

So in other words, let's say NJ/NY stabilize the situation, I fear that states that haven't, due to domestic travel, might cause a resurgence in certain stabilized states, as the peaks and troughs are not the same or uniformed across the nation.

I know the legality of things may be in question, but I really wish some domestic restrictions could be in place. Like I wouldn't want folks in areas that are seeing a rise in cases, such as Miami-Dade, coming to NJ/NY, and vice-versa.

I think its a systematic failure that ALL states were not uniformed in their approach. Its only going to extend this pandemic.

Its easy to prevent international folks (close air/ship/border routes), but I feel that domestic is the biggest challenge (state-to-state).

I wouldn't worry too much about this because no areas are going to "stabilize" until a sufficient portion of the population has achieved immmunity that the virus has trouble finding susceptible hosts. Even as the new case rates are coming down there will remain infected people in the communities--you don't have to worry about importing them from other states. It's just that the people they are in contact with will most already be immune so the rate at which the virus is spread will come down from its estimate 2.3 people/infected person to something less than 1.

What I worry about is all the susceptible people hiding in their New York homes and what happens when they come out. If they trickle out a few at a time, the rate of new cases may remain acceptably low. If they all come out at once because somebody blows an "all clear" signal, I expect a secondary peak in cases. Remember that the "shelter in place" policy is not so much to reduce the total number of cases over time but to lower the peak number of cases occuring at one time and stretch out the duration of the epidemic so that the hospitals will be able to handle the numbers at every point.

As of this morning.

https://aws1.discourse-cdn.com/busin...dd19e800b.jpeg

• Video Link

Germany data March 31, 2020
(Robert-Koch-Institut in Berlin):

- 350.000 tests in the last 7 days
- 61.913 Corona total cases (+4615 more than yesterday) / Average age: 47 / 70-80% have mild symptoms
- 583 Corona total deaths (+128 more than yesterday) / Average age: 80
- 16.100 Recovered from Covid-19

I've been amazed at the low numbers in Florida given the strong connections to the tri-state. But it's probably just a matter of time.

You're already seeing this TBH. Overall case growth nationwide has shrunk consistently for like five days now, and it was up only around 15% yesterday. But this is almost entirely attributable to NY getting its case growth under control. A week ago half of new daily cases were coming from New York, and now it's less than a third and continues to fall. Another few days like this and I'm worried people will think the worst is over, and we'll see weird outbreaks in areas which haven't taken this as seriously.

There is some evidence now that warmer weather lowers the R value of COVID-19 somewhat. Though I suppose the huge outbreak in New Orleans kinda speaks against this to some segree.

These are the projections for California...

From KTLA:

California will see peak of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in less than 4 weeks, forecast finds

https://ktla.com/wp-content/uploads/...1.24.11-PM.png


A graph from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation shows projected peak demand for hospital resources in California on April 26, 2020.


by: Melissa Pamer, Mary Beth McDade

Posted: Mar 30, 2020 / 02:40 PM PDT / Updated: Mar 30, 2020 / 11:03 PM PDT

The coronavirus crisis will create peak demand on California's health care resources on April 26, but the state will be likely able to meet the need for hospital beds, according to a state-by-state forecast from researchers at the University of Washington's medical school.

The Golden State will see more than 4,300 deaths due to coronavirus, with fatalities continuing into August, the forecast found. The numbers are expected to peak with about 100 deaths per day in late April.

The state has been preparing for a surge that will require two-thirds increase in hospital system capacity, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday, when a top state health official indicated the state's own "very dynamic" modeling indicated a peak in the second half of May.

There are now 5,763 positive coronavirus cases in California and 135 people have died, the state announced.

Nationwide, approximately 82,141 people will die from the virus over the next four months, the study predicts from a range of 39,174 to 141,995 deaths. Over the weekend, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health predicted between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in the U.S.

[...]

Read the rest here: Link: https://ktla.com/news/california/cal...bzKE0g-XPxXIxM

In Alaska the total cases are 119. Which is pretty high per capita.

Is dry heat different than wet, humid heat in terms of virus transmission? I always thought a big reason major Central and South American cities tend to be located inland was because they were less susceptible to being wiped out by disease. Although, that's more likely due to the prevalence of mosquitoes than a flu-like virus's ability to survive exposure to the elements.

At first there was some evidence to suggest that high relative humidity can drop the R value, but the latest studies suggest it's just heat irrespective of humidity.

Of course, if someone coughs directly on you, even in a tropical country, you'll get infected. Also we spend lots of time in air-conditioned environments where COVID-19 seems to spread just fine. The latter seems to suggest as soon as we move out of lockdown and people start going to work, malls, and similar places the south could have a major outbreak - even in summer.

Yea we're all getting covid-19 eventually. At least when it happens later on we will have adequate testing and maybe treatment of some kind. But for some, maybe now is the time to start making some healthy changes so your body is body equipped to fight it off...

Let's see how well this comment ages... Prediction: Florida will be the worst outbreak in the U.S. when this is all over. It will be worse than New York.

That's a good point. Are there good resources for that? Do we know that certain types of health are useful (good cardio for example)? I could google something but maybe there's a real ideal resource.

Italian patients airlifted to German hospitals are counted where?

:shrug:

More Germany data March 31, 2020:

- 7000 Covid-19 patients are treated in hospitals (from 62.000 cases), others are in quarantine at home
- 1.500 patients are in ICUs, 1.100 need ventilators
- 30.000 Intensive Care Units with ventilators are available. 55 % of them are occupied.

In Berlin 500 extra ICUs are being built in a convention center hall.