A good place to start would be by putting the serologic test--not the PCR--into widespread use to find out what percentage of the population has had the disease. Actually, the two tests in combination would be even better. When the percentage of people who have coronavirus antibodies (until there's a vaccine, that would be because they were infected and recovered) but are not PCR positive (so they aren't spreading the disease) reaches at least 50%, we can probably think about reopening things. 70% would be even better but might be more than necessary.

In most people, the disease seems to take about two weeks to recover from. So that means about 2 weeks from initial positive PCR test to negative PCR test with positive antibody test--and we need about half the population to have gone through this cycle.

It seems like a lot of people have this virus and never get symptoms that they notice. So until the serology test comes fully online, we don't know what percentage of the population may already have gone through the cycle. It could be a lot . . . more than most people realize. But we need to know.

I just think it’s worth listening to literally every public health expert on the planet and not politicians or random bankers to tell us what the actual risk is. It’s safe to say not a single person wants the economy to crash, and we should remember it doesn’t benefit scientists in any way to see hundreds of thousands or millions of people in dire financial straights.

People on this site especially should understand the benefit of listening to experts over those with ulterior motives, how many concepts in urban planning go against public intuition? Parking requiremnents? Street width? Zoning? Some things don’t make sense to the layman on the surface because we don’t understand the underlying research. It’s good to have experts and to listen to them.

So basically, ramp up testing to include pretty much everyone in a badly infected area, wait a few weeks, look over the numbers?

The public health experts will readily admit they have little idea what the actual risk is. I heard Tony Fauci talk the other day about his hope for something like what I described just above in which those "experts" could get a real grip on the virus penetration into the community, not just current cases as determined by the PCR test but total past and present cases as determined by serology. That way, they have some idea about where we stand on the progression toward "herd immunity" or the point when the virus begins having trouble finding susceptible hosts.

Not necessarily everyone--just a solid scientific sample. And then keep doing it.

Gallup can tells how elections go with just a few hundred selected poll participants. In this case we might like more than a few hundred but a few thousand in many communities might do it.

True, but I’d rather be out of a job than see millions of people die (thus creating an economic crisis of its own.) it’s a risk either way, why not choose the path that might save lives vs the one that will certainly kill people? Now politicians are pushing the idea that older folks would gladly die if it meant preventing a depression, not sure a lot of people over 50 buy that.

H1N1 killed over 12,000 people in 2009. Did you change your life at all during that pandemic? Of course not. The media treated as a second rate story and our political leaders didn't close down anything.

Again, I am not criticizing the government's decisions here to close things down. Hell, I was just walking my dog and talked with a cop about why they aren't clamping down on people letting their kids play on playground equipment(like...20 mins ago). I just want a measurable way of ending this. Not only that, but I also want us to be rational. The whole "if we can save ONE life" isn't going to work. Not when over 1 million people in California lost their jobs(or something around that) in ONE WEEK. We make choices about what risks we are willing to take every day. This is another choice we will have to make.

If there were a precipitous rise in pneumonia and respiratory deaths compared to previous years I might be more worried. I'm sure were all Facebook virologists at this point too but after spending four weeks devouring every stat I could find, it just doesn't seem like this year is any different than previous years. The cdc tracks all like bloodhound and you can way more respiratory deaths in previous seasons. Also, if the patient zero was clinically isolated at the beginning of November, that means covid was probably stewing around central china since last fall. Do you know how many disembarkations there are between the was west coast and mainland china? Thousands!!! That thing already rolled thru the PNW before xmas. My entire office had a weird hacky cough for month. Nobody blinked an eye. I'm praying for you nyc folks right now though. Fuck I want my country back..

Yea, it’s fucked. Either lots of people will potentially die or lots of people will potentially be destitute. It’s a no-win situation for everyone.

Plus everything just feels so weird! I went to the store earlier and there is this weird atmosphere where everyone just seems so distrustful of each other. Those other crises you mentioned could allow for some form of public support, gather and feel some semblance of unity. The very nature of this makes us want to separate...

Exactly. I asked for a dog poop bag from a lady the other day and she placed it on the ground for me to pick up. That's a new normal.

I think the point you brought up, the boredom many are experiencing, and the nice weather today in Chicago is what caused all the people to pretty much act like nothing is going on on the lakefront and in parks around the city. I drove down LSD and couldn't believe the number of people out. Large groups too. And as I pointed out, people were letting their kids play on the playground equipment that had signs that said not to. The mayor threatened to shut shit down today and I think after what I saw today, she will.

And that pisses me off(not at her, but all the people not paying attention) lol I've been biking on the lakeshore to clear my head every day and if I lose that one outlet...I don't know. I guess I can just ride on the streets, but it's way less stress-relieving for me.

Hah was that the Coliseum park playground? I noticed kids playing there too. Even worse was the basketball court at the Hilliard Homes, which was full of teens hanging out and playing basketball.

It hasn't even been a full week yet since Governor Newsom's California-wide stay at home order, but some people here have been acting like they've been sequestered for 2 months or something. If anything, this pandemic has shown what a bunch of pussies a lot of people are.

Man this line of thinking sounds exactly like my libertarian friends’ views. It must be going around the podcasts.

SARS-CoV-2 is much deadlier than H1N1, but finally a dumb debate where red states can blaze out and be dumb. Won't be much domestic air travel by then so have at it. See you at Reconstruction II

Ya know this is probably the first time 95% of people in the West have ever heard of the city of Wuhan. It will likely always be known to Westerners for coronavirus and little else, which is a shame especially since it's a proper mega-city.

NYC’s Elmhurst Hospital at coronavirus breaking point as 13 patients die in 24-hour spa

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NY Post

Coronavirus, strade deserte a New York per il lockdown

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Some aerial footage.

Senate approves $2 trillion stimulus deal.

So I guess we prepare for massive inflation now.

The bill has goodies for everyone, some designed for effect, some with elections a big factor. It'll help stabilize things but only partially, and with a lot of gaps we can hope they'll also address soon.