Manitoba Provincial Election
 

Since the other one has descended into a soapbox for some folks, how about a reboot on the chances of the NDP to return, the Conservatives to remain or the Liberals to become relevant.

NDP control Winnipeg and the North they win simple as that.

Well the last poll I saw had the NDP in front of the PC's by 11 points. Stephenson has had some major cabinet shuffles to do as a large number of Conservative MLA's have announced they will not be back for the next election. The premier is dropping all kinds of spending announcements, including a number on social issues, but they seem to have little effect on polling numbers so far. The PC's have their spring budget this year to make one last huge splash, but it seems the bloom is off the rose no matter what she does.

Wab Kinew has been avoiding controversy, but has made a number of public statements criticizing the PC's, as is his job as Opposition leader. The NDP have a full slate of candidates, and apparently $$ in the bank for the next election.

The Liberals seem to be a non-factor right now.

I believe you're right that Winnipeg is the key. Rural areas almost always vote Conservative. All in all, unless the Conservatives have some kind of enormous win that means Winnipeg can't resist voting for Stephenson, the NDP will form the next government.

Of course, seven months is a long time in politics. If Stephenson pulls off a gigantic coup that benefits the province, or Kinew makes a huge blunder, things might change.

^^
Its always been that way in this province.

I wish they'd come up with a long term plan to make the TCH a stoplightless highway.

This is definitely the NDP’s to lose but we all thought Glen Murray was going to win the municipal election until he ended up having a terrible election campaign so we never really know until October.

I really hope the NDP starts providing tangible policies and numbers in their next platform soon.

As an opposition you really have to be strategic on when you start to propose solutions so that the government won't steal them from you. That's why PP is being coy about giving solutions due to the length of time between now and a potential election.
Gives his detractors lots of reasons to mock him but it is the right call, IMO.

Thank you for doing this. Previous thread decended into a mess the past 2 weeks.

My prediction is NDP 36 pcs 19 libs 2. Stefanson will step down after the election and either Glover or Klein will takeover as leader.

Didn't we just have a Provincial election like a month ago? ;)

Seriously though having just been through the Kirkfield Park by-election what I can tell you is the PCs even without the returning MLAs are easily the best organized party. The number of times they were at my door definitely started to get annoying.

The Liberals, to their own credit, did manage to show up at my door.

And the NDP put on a truly solid race with an openly trans candidate running in a traditionally conservative friendly area and finishing a fairly close second. Sadly with a general election months away they lacked the ground game to even knock on my door once.

Personal feelings aside, my thinking is the general election goes to the PCs and they continue to poll at record lows before and after the election.

The bolded is an important nuanced conclusion about our current provincial (and more specifically Winnipeg) politics right now. I think we may be at a weird point where the polls show that people are fed up with the PC's but when it comes down to actually voting they can't bring themselves to vote for the NDP for whatever reason resulting in a PC win with terrible polling numbers. Same thing happened with Judy and Murray in the recent Winnipeg mayoral races where the polls showed one thing and when it came time to actually vote the undecideds chickened out. For some reason Winnipeg seems to be a little more sensitive to this thinking which would be the only reason the PCs would hang on in this election and wouldn't surprise me.

I personally wish the libs were a bit stronger as a minority government either way in Manitoba might smarten everyone up.

Obby Khan almost losing to a Lib is pretty stark. The NDP and Libs robbed each other in that by-election.

There are 36 Tory seats, but only... what, 25 of those with an incumbent running? An unpopular provincial government and even less popular leader, and economic headwinds against them...

To squeak out a win, they have to hold several of their Winnipeg ridings. Which ones do you seem them holding?

It seems clear that the PC caucus doesn't believe they're going to get another term, given all the MLAs in super safe Tory ridings who are not running again...

call it buying votes or call it putting $ into much needed recreation, Lorette arena was in rough shape last time i was there 5+ yrs ago..

from FreePress

All three levels of government today announced more than $8 million for a new community centre in the Rural Municipality of Taché.

The joint funding will help build a complex with a 62,000-square-foot arena and an 8,000-square-foot library. The arena portion of the new complex will replace the existing Lorette Arena, which has exceeded its useful life expectancy, a government press release said.

The federal government is contributing up to $4.4 million, the Manitoba government is contributing $3.6 million and the R.M.
of Taché is providing more than $2.9 million towards the project.

The current PC government reminds me a lot of the speNDP of the past, throwing money at everything to boost polls. And there seems to be very little coordination with anything from an inter-governmental perspective.

It will be interesting to see if the NDP can sustain this momentum going into this election or whether we see another Murray-type collapse. You can bet the PCs are going to attack Kinew for his past indiscretions much in the same way Murray was attacked.

The Dawson Trail MLA is not well liked, nor does it look like he showed up today. Anyone who want to talk to him has to sign a non-disclosure agreement first. General thought is he's spending all his time with hs wife's coffee shop in Ste Anne. The NDP candidate, Chris Wiebe, has been knocking on doors for months and has a really good shot of turning Dawson Trail orange again.

There's 16 ridings here the PC's will have a hard time retaining. They need to win half of them for a majority.

City PC ridings up for grabs in my opinion...a few of these could evolve into 3 way races.

Seine River

Southdale (think PC's could hold on if they dumped Gordon, but she has basically no chance to win re-election)

McPhillips

Radisson (incumbent here is also intensely unpopular)

Rossmere

Assiniboia

Kirkfield Park

Fort Richmond (unpopular incumbent with poor ministerial record)

Riel

Waverly (unpopular incumbent here too)

Lagimodiere

Kildonan-River East (vast riding, very divided north-south, a NDP stronghold vs PC stronghold at city limits)

Rural PC ridings up for grabs in my opinion:

Selkirk (NDP chances here really depend on getting out the vote)

Dauphin (Has been a NDP stronghold in past and PC's really killed this community with lay-offs/lack of economic development, PEOPLE ARE MAD)

Both Brandon ridings (Brandon is feeling the lack of urban investment by the PC's as acutely as Winnipeg)

Springfield (traditional PC stronghold but NDP polling strong here lately as locals very pissed at Guillemard as environ minister and PC government for increasing industry in area with low regulation and lack of local support)

Normally I'd expect Dawson Trail to be a fairly safe PC riding but the incumbent there is a bit exceptional.

It was NDP for years before the PC's took it.

I agree that these will be the ridings to watch and will decide on the government. Here’s my opinion:

Winnipeg:

Seine River (PC) - The area lost a lot of its traditional NDP base around the mall and picked up more southern areas near the perimeter.

Southdale (NDP) - Close last time, Gordon has a high profile and the NDP will spend a lot of resources to oust her. The riding has taken on more of the blue collar areas of Windsor Park and lost its traditional PC base in Royalwood.

McPhillips (NDP) - Nail bitter last election. This time with the NDP polling much higher, this will be the most likely urban riding to flip.

Radisson (NDP) - Has been a historically traditional NDP riding. It went PC when they swept the NDP from power. Managed to stay Tory in 2019. This time with an unpopular incumbent and NDP polling higher, it shouldn’t even be close.

Rossmere (Toss-up) - This one is tough. Could go either way.

Assiniboia (Toss-up) - See above.

Kirkfield Park (PC) - Klein is a retail politician and a constituency guy. He has a good ground game. I say PC hold.

Fort Richmond (PC) - Last time the Liberals split the centre-left vote). If the Libs field another strong candidate, I could see the Tories holding it by default.

Riel (NDP) - Despite Squires being a high ranking minister, this riding is the most likely of the south Winnipeg ones to flip.

Waverly (PC) - Traditional Tory leaning area. Suburban and higher income.

Lagimodiere (PC) - See above.

Kildonan-River East (PC) - This riding has seen a large population boom of new, expensive neighborhoods near the Perimeter. Bonnie Mitchelson managed to hold it even when the Tories lost every seat north of the Assiniboine River. Candidacy will matter this time.

Rural Ridings:

Selkirk (NDP) - Strong candidate, traditional urban NDP riding with no PC incumbent.

Dauphin (PC) - Rural MB has shifted more to the right in recent years. The PC’s are still polling well outside of WPG.

Brandon East (NDP) - City splits, with the eastern part going back to its NDP roots.

Brandon West (PC) - It’ll be close but I think the Tories eek out a win here.

Springfield (PC) - Especially if Schuler runs again. Traditional PC rural riding with ex-urbanites in Oakbank who tend to sway centre right.

Curious to see what everyone else thinks. This election will certainly be interesting. I have a feeling that it’ll be close. I would be happy with a minority government of either party with the Liberals holding the balance of power.

He was at the puck drop, why are you saying he wasn't present? Don't make up shit if you don't know.

https://twitter.com/DanHarperPhoto/s...HD4nq9eOQ&s=19

Yeah, there was Ron Lemieux but I'm pretty sure he was the first and only NDPer to hold a seat there.