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jtown,man Mar 29, 2020 8:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BG918 (Post 8877969)
Statistically we could see well over a million deaths. Some models, like this one from the Imperial College of London, predict potentially over 2 million deaths in the United States.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03/...t--in-detail-/

Haven't they dramatically curtailed that number in recent days? They keep getting cited for some weird reason.

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 8:45 PM

We tend to be a North America-focused site, but let's move abroad for a minute:

Quote:

Britain’s Creaking National Health System Gears Up for Coronavirus Crisis
By Max Colchester and Alistair MacDonald
March 29, 2020 7:00 am ET

LONDON—A vast convention center in east London is being turned into a sprawling hospital that can handle up to 4,000 patients. Thousands of retired nurses and doctors are being drafted back to work. The British army is delivering protective clothing to dozens of hospitals around the country.

As the new coronavirus spreads here, Britain’s tightly funded National Health Service is taking drastic action to manage a crisis that some worry will overwhelm it.

. . . in disasters, the NHS has advantages: It is highly centralized and so can make wholesale changes to the way it operates. This means “the NHS is very good in a crisis,” said Nigel Edwards, chief executive of the Nuffield Trust, a health think tank. This allowed it to cancel thousands of operations to free up bed space. It is also preparing to marshal half-a-million volunteers to help deliver medicines to peoples’ homes and ferry the infirm to hospitals.

Furthermore, the provision of free health care should ensure people who are sick don’t continue work and spread the virus because they can’t afford treatment or worry about paying medical bills.

Going into the pandemic, U.K. hospital bed numbers had halved in three decades to 140,000, according to the King’s Fund, a health care charity.

More than 90% of hospital beds were occupied for all but four days of the 2017-18 winter, according to the British Medical Association, the doctors’ trade union . . . .

Since the NHS was founded in 1948, the average annual real increase in funding has been 3.6% a year, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. But between 2010 and 2018 the annual increase dropped to 1.3% as the government mended its finances following the financial crisis.

The U.K. had 2.1 acute hospital beds—those where a patient receives treatment for severe injuries or illnesses—for every 1,000 inhabitants. That is among the lowest among members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, according to 2017 data, and compares with 2.4 beds per 1,000 in the U.S. Other estimates, however, suggest that the numbers of beds capable of handling the most serious intensive-care cases are far higher stateside, and U.K. hospitals have just 8,000 ventilators—although the government says a further 8,000 will be acquired in coming weeks*.

Britain is still at a relatively early stage in the spread of coronavirus, with experts saying infections should peak in about three weeks, but preparation at the NHS hasn’t been smooth . . . . patients with nonemergency surgery appointments that their procedures had to be canceled, including many with cancer.

Nationwide, the NHS ordered the cancellation of operations to free up 33,000 beds. The NHS has already requisitioned private hospitals and is repurposing three vast convention centers to hold the sick, including the one in London that should open next week. In total the health service has added extra capacity equivalent to 50 hospitals, said NHS Chief Executive Simon Stevens on Friday, brushing off criticism that the British health service is underprepared compared to other countries.

The government’s medical advisers say that, with the country’s lockdown in place since March 23 the number of deaths related to the virus could be limited to 20,000. If so, the national system should cope—but hospitals in some areas could be overloaded.

Among the areas potentially at risk is the southwest of England. The region has the fewest critical-care beds in the country, and would need six times more beds, or an additional 1,900, to deal with a severe outbreak of coronavirus, according to medical-data firm Edge Health. Parts of the southwest also have the oldest population in the U.K., the demographic that has suffered most elsewhere . . . .
https://www.wsj.com/articles/britain...d=hp_lead_pos8

*Compare this number of ventillators to the 30,000 ADDITIONAL ventillators Gov. Cuomo says NYC needs by itself

IluvATX Mar 29, 2020 8:53 PM

I heard that the virus dies around 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Does this mean that it will die out completely in the summer?

mrnyc Mar 29, 2020 9:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IluvATX (Post 8878045)
I heard that the virus dies around 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Does this mean that it will die out completely in the summer?

hopefully you are right, but i wouldn't take to heart anything from on the fly observations or rumors like that right now. it wouldn't die out completely though. in fact it could just go dormant and come back worse. lets take that as a bit of hope for now.

chris08876 Mar 29, 2020 9:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IluvATX (Post 8878045)
I heard that the virus dies around 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Does this mean that it will die out completely in the summer?

Makes me wonder if possibly inducing a fever via certain drugs can be an effective measure against this virus. Like a controlled high dose of MDMA which will raise body temperature, but in a controlled setting. Or anything really that inhibits the body's temperature regulation (fever inducing). I suppose it would also result in hypertension, but just an idea. I wonder if medically inducing a fever would be some sort of treatment option.

chris08876 Mar 29, 2020 9:16 PM

https://aws1.discourse-cdn.com/busin...c5232ea9a.jpeg

https://aws1.discourse-cdn.com/busin...dba0c515f.jpeg

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 9:17 PM

Quote:

Tents crowd Tenderloin, even as SF tries to keep people apart during coronavirus outbreak
Phil Matier March 29, 2020 Updated: March 29, 2020 11:51 a.m.

If you want to see the challenges and limitations of enforcing San Francisco’s shelter-in-place order and observing social distancing, take a walk through the Tenderloin.

Since Mayor London Breed’s March 16 public health order, tents filled with homeless people have sprouted up along Hyde, Eddy, Turk and Jones streets — all with the quiet blessing of the city. Lines for the neighborhood’s free kitchens and methadone clinics stretch for blocks, overwhelming staff attempts to maintain a 6-foot distance between people.

And throughout the day and night, neighborhood residents — some crowded together in small apartments — mill about the sidewalks, pretty much as usual.

“We got to sell stuff to get food, to get high — and everyday life,” said Diana Hardnett, as she sat with two friends, tending to boxes of razors, used clothing and other small items spread out on a blanket at the corner of Turk and Hyde streets on Wednesday morning.

A few feet away, a police officer handed out flyers to tent dwellers explaining the need for safe distancing, as a Public Works crew performed its daily sidewalk scrub-down.

“I wear my mask and gloves. I don’t touch anyone,” said crew supervisor Fernando Mendoza, a father of three. “And I’m careful not to brush up against the tents.”

It’s not a pretty picture. But even with the challenges and health questions the presence of the tents raise, Healthy Streets Operations Center director Jeff Kositsky said the city has little choice.

For starters, the city’s homeless shelters and Navigation Centers are maxed out. Even hospitals are feeling the pinch as the homeless increasingly seek shelter in emergency room waiting areas.

Hence, the return of the tents after years of trying to keep them off the sidewalks.

“But we are trying to keep them apart and limit them to five tents to a block,” Kositsky said, pointing to the tent-free corner where Hardnett had sold her goods the day before.

Not that the problem has gone away. At Hyde and Eddy, three police officers were trying to break up a row of four side-by side-tents whose occupants had refused to budge the day before.

“Touch my tent again, and I’ll have the dog on you,” said one homeless man who was sharing a tent with a large pit bull.

No one touched the tent, and for the next 10 minutes a sergeant calmly engaged the man while repeatedly urging him — without success — to “just move the tent.”

Under law, police may issue misdemeanor citations for violations of the public health order to keep a safe distance. However, the Police Department’s official policy also states that line officers are to focus “on education, rather than enforcement.”

“We can’t cite them, we can’t arrest them. We can’t do anything but tell them they need to listen to us,” said one of the cops as they moved on to another row of tents . . . .

https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/11/24/...ery_xlarge.jpg
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...p-15163140.php

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 9:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrnyc (Post 8878069)
hopefully you are right, but i wouldn't take to heart anything from on the fly observations or rumors like that right now. it wouldn't die out completely though. in fact it could just go dormant and come back worse. lets take that as a bit of hope for now.

"Rumors" can be easily checked for evidence to support of refute them.

These experiments were done with SARS-CoV-1 but there's no particular reason to think SARS-CoV-2 wouldn't be similar.

Quote:

The Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Viability of the SARS Coronavirus
K. H. Chan ,1 J. S. Malik Peiris,1 S. Y. Lam,1 L. L. M. Poon,1 K. Y. Yuen,1 and W. H. SetoAcademic Editor: Alain Kohl
Received 25 Nov 2010
Revised 31 Jul 2011
Accepted 31 Jul 2011
Published 01 Oct 2011

Abstract
The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces were studied. The dried virus on smooth surfaces retained its viability for over 5 days at temperatures of 22–25°C and relative humidity of 40–50%, that is, typical air-conditioned environments. However, virus viability was rapidly lost (>3 log10) at higher temperatures and higher relative humidity (e.g., 38°C, and relative humidity of >95%). The better stability of SARS coronavirus at low temperature and low humidity environment may facilitate its transmission in community in subtropical area (such as Hong Kong) during the spring and in air-conditioned environments. It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS.
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

Quote:

Stability of SARS coronavirus in human specimens and environment and its sensitivity to heating and UV irradiation.
Duan SM1, Zhao XS, Wen RF, Huang JJ, Pi GH, Zhang SX, Han J, Bi SL, Ruan L, Dong XP, SARS Research Team
Author information
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences : BES, 31 Aug 2003, 16(3):246-255
PMID: 14631830

Abstract
The causal agent for SARS is considered as a novel coronavirus that has never been described both in human and animals previously. The stability of SARS coronavirus in human specimens and in environments was studied.Using a SARS coronavirus strain CoV-P9, which was isolated from pharyngeal swab of a probable SARS case in Beijing, its stability in mimic human specimens and in mimic environment including surfaces of commonly used materials or in household conditions, as well as its resistance to temperature and UV irradiation were analyzed. A total of 10(6) TCID50 viruses were placed in each tested condition, and changes of the viral infectivity in samples after treatments were measured by evaluating cytopathic effect (CPE) in cell line Vero-E6 at 48 h after infection.The results showed that SARS coronavirus in the testing condition could survive in serum, 1:20 diluted sputum and feces for at least 96 h, whereas it could remain alive in urine for at least 72 h with a low level of infectivity. The survival abilities on the surfaces of eight different materials and in water were quite comparable, revealing reduction of infectivity after 72 to 96 h exposure. Viruses stayed stable at 4 degrees C, at room temperature (20 degrees C) and at 37 degrees C for at least 2 h without remarkable change in the infectious ability in cells, but were converted to be non-infectious after 90-, 60- and 30-min exposure at 56 degrees C, at 67 degrees C and at 75 degrees C, respectively. Irradiation of UV for 60 min on the virus in culture medium resulted in the destruction of viral infectivity at an undetectable level.The survival ability of SARS coronavirus in human specimens and in environments seems to be relatively strong. Heating and UV irradiation can efficiently eliminate the viral infectivity.
https://europepmc.org/article/med/14631830

BnaBreaker Mar 29, 2020 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IluvATX (Post 8878045)
I heard that the virus dies around 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Does this mean that it will die out completely in the summer?

Well, temperatures were in the nineties today all over Central America and The Caribbean... so look tomorrow I guess to see if the virus miraculously disappears there tomorrow (it won't.)

C. Mar 29, 2020 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 8878076)

Why is Iran above Spain in that graphic?

sopas ej Mar 29, 2020 10:39 PM

The city of Pasadena supplanted its regular parking signs in its business districts with 20 minute parking signs for food orders/pickups during this COVID-19 pandemic.
https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...d6&oe=5EA543E1
Photo by me

We decided to go to our one of our go-to fast food places for lunch today.
https://scontent-lax3-2.xx.fbcdn.net...0e&oe=5EA6B153
Photo by me

Mendocino Farms empty of sit-down customers during this COVID-19 pandemic.
https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...1d&oe=5EA6E173
Photo by me

When I go to Mendocino Farms, this is what I often order: The Avocado & Quinoa Superfood Ensalada with roasted chicken breast. Mmmm, mmmm!
https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...7d&oe=5EA79679
Photo by me

mrnyc Mar 29, 2020 11:06 PM

^ thats a good idea and fast work to get the signs up :tup:



Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8878106)
"Rumors" can be easily checked for evidence to support of refute them.

These experiments were done with SARS-CoV-1 but there's no particular reason to think SARS-CoV-2 wouldn't be similar.


unfortunately as of now there's no particular reason to just assume it is either.

its starting to show up in africa, recently so maybe we can see something about that over there sooner than summer. :shrug:

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BnaBreaker (Post 8878140)
Well, temperatures were in the nineties today all over Central America and The Caribbean... so look tomorrow I guess to see if the virus miraculously disappears there tomorrow (it won't.)

No, of course it won't because there are many nooks and crannies, indoors and out, where it is not directly exposed to ambient temps and solar UV. But outdoors, where it IS exposed to those plus high humidity, the surfaces may be largely sterilized and that's some help.

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrnyc (Post 8878184)
unfortunately as of now there's no particular reason to just assume it is either.

its starting to show up in africa, recently so maybe we can see something about that over there sooner than summer. :shrug:

As a member of an entire family of viruses to which these experiments seem to apply, I'd say there IS reason to think it's no different from its siblings.

But let's be clear. I am not suggesting it's going to abate in summer or anything like that. I don't think it is. I am referring to ways to artifically kill the virus through application of heat or humidity such as some people may want to do with items they bring home from stores or even their delivered newspaper (as I am doing--microwaving it).

mrnyc Mar 29, 2020 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8878186)
As a member of an entire family of viruses to which these experiments seem to apply, I'd say there IS reason to think it's no different from its siblings.

and as an assumption, a hope and a guess, good or not, i'll wait for the evidence to support that you also mention. meanwhile...

and yes, cook the food. so we are left with common sense for now. :shrug:

jtown,man Mar 29, 2020 11:15 PM

What are we suppose to take away from those death rates by country? Does it reveal which country is testing more or the quality of their healthcare...or something else?

Pedestrian Mar 29, 2020 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8878195)
What are we suppose to take away from those death rates by country? Does it reveal which country is testing more or the quality of their healthcare...or something else?

It should be largely independent of testing since COVID-19 can be fairly accurately diagnosed in the absence of testing, especially as flu season, which has similar symptoms, wanes for seasonal reasons. The death rate should be a factor of (a) the prevalence of the virus (what everybody wants to know) and (b) the quality and sophistication of the available health care.

This is why most experts consider hopsitalization rates and death rates a better measure of local disease prevalence than testing at the levels we are currently doing it around the world. I will repeat a figure a group of modelers came up with early on (not sure if they still agree with it): the true prevalence of coronavirus infection in a community can be estimated by multiplying the deaths by 800.

If you look at "death rates" in terms of percentages of COVID-19 patients dying, as shown in the graph posted above, that should be mainly a function of quality of care and demographics. The Italian health care system was pretty good before COVID but is clearly overwhelmed as may be those in Spain and Iran. Such factors as population mean age and smoking prevalence may have something to do with high rates in France, Spain and Italy also (and perhaps other countries). I'm not sure on the Netherlands--I always think of them as being pretty fit (all that bike riding and such) but they may have an older mean age.

Yuri Mar 29, 2020 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IluvATX (Post 8878045)
I heard that the virus dies around 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Does this mean that it will die out completely in the summer?

There are already thousands of cases in equatorial climate, including deaths: Brazilian Amazon, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia.

The North One Mar 29, 2020 11:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IluvATX (Post 8878045)
I heard that the virus dies around 88 degrees Fahrenheit. Does this mean that it will die out completely in the summer?

You mean outside of a host right?

Internal body temperature is well over that.

montréaliste Mar 30, 2020 12:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One (Post 8878256)
You mean outside of a host right?

Internal body temperature is well over that.

Lol.


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