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JManc May 22, 2021 3:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9288382)
I added the current stats: 10% non-compliance for measles which, believe it or not, is MORE contagious than COVID and the vaccine for which is about equally effective. But we only see important measles outbreaks in local communities where non-compliance is substantially higher. This is the best-known example of herd immunity. And I think as the political dimension fades we can get COVID vaccines to the 90+/-% range, especially if, as I've read the next generation of vaccines are pills or nasal sprays.

But we're NEVER going to get anywhere near 10% non-compliance with covid and 0-12 aren't even factored in. I suspect there will be a bigger pushback at least in the near term with parents hesitant to give a vaccine that is not fully approved to their young child. Measles is largely a non-issue due to the trust and high compliance among children. I suspect it will more like the flu vaccines which there is a high degree of non-compliance. I didn't even get vaccinated until last year.

Pedestrian May 22, 2021 3:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV (Post 9288390)

You don't have to go to New Zealand:

Quote:

Why Measles Hits So Hard Within N.Y. Orthodox Jewish Community
By Michelle Andrews
MARCH 11, 2019

The Rockland County, N.Y., woman hadn’t told her obstetrician that she had a fever and rash, two key signs of a measles infection. A member of the Orthodox Jewish community there, she went into premature labor at 34 weeks, possibly as a result of the infection. Her baby was born with measles and spent his first 10 days in the neonatal intensive care unit . . . .

The measles case Ruppert described is just one of many. New York state’s outbreaks, which began last October, have gone on longer and infected more people than any other current outbreak nationwide. More than 275 cases of the disease have been confirmed statewide through the first week of March, primarily in the New York City borough of Brooklyn and in Rockland County towns northwest of the city.

That total makes up about half of the 578 confirmed cases in 11 states that were reported nationwide by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2018 through the end of last month. Washington state, with 76 cases by the end of February, has the second-highest number of cases.

Measles cases in New York have been concentrated among children from Orthodox Jewish families, many of whom attend religious schools where vaccination rates may have been below the 95 percent threshold considered necessary to maintain immunity. The outbreaks began when unvaccinated travelers returned from Israel, where an outbreak persists, and spread the disease here.
https://khn.org/news/why-measles-hit...ish-community/

Measles is considered about the most transmissible respiratory virus and yet, in spite of 10% non-compliance which is "below the 95 percent threshold considered necessary to maintain immunity" outbreaks usually make the news as these did and also a recent one in the Northwest US.

I want to see COVID outbreaks treated similarly and I think we can get there.

Pedestrian May 22, 2021 3:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 9288392)
But we're NEVER going to get anywhere near 10% non-compliance with covid

Since COVID is less contagious, we don't need to. 70% was the figure Tony Fauci guessed last year. I think the SF Bay Area can reach 85% when a vaccine is approved for all ages and for this virus that'll probably do it.

If Texas can't get to that figure, Californians traveling there will just have to be sure they've had their shots and perhaps there will be economic consequences.

JManc May 22, 2021 4:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9288399)
Since COVID is less contagious, we don't need to. 70% was the figure Tony Fauci guessed last year. I think the SF Bay Area can reach 85% when a vaccine is approved for all ages and for this virus that'll probably do it.

If Texas can't get to that figure, Californians traveling there will just have to be sure they've had their shots and perhaps there will be economic consequences.

What about the reverse; California and the Bay Area are major destinations from visitors all over the place including places with low compliance rates.

SIGSEGV May 22, 2021 4:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9288399)
Since COVID is less contagious, we don't need to. 70% was the figure Tony Fauci guessed last year. I think the SF Bay Area can reach 85% when a vaccine is approved for all ages and for this virus that'll probably do it.

If Texas can't get to that figure, Californians traveling there will just have to be sure they've had their shots and perhaps there will be economic consequences.

I'd like to see legislation explicitly allowing employers to require vaccination for at least new employees/promotions. I've heard anecdotally that a lot of places are scared to require that of employees for legal reasons, real or imagined. UChicago is requiring vaccination of students, but not of staff or faculty, for example (though I suspect vaccination rates among at least the academic staff are near 100%.). It seems like they're likely figuring it out with the lawyers...
Quote:

The University is evaluating whether the COVID-19 vaccine also will be required for all academic appointees, postdoctoral researchers, and staff, and we will share an update soon.
They're finally lifting the campus outdoor mask mandate though:

Quote:

In recognition of lower risks outdoors and Chicago Department of Public Health guidance, the University has eliminated the masking mandate for people who are outdoors on campus grounds, including when others are within 6 feet – however, face coverings may still be required at certain outdoor events and programming. We expect many members of our community to continue wearing masks outdoors for various reasons, and request all to be conscientious of others.
I suspect by the time I'm back from Greenland in late July, I may even be allowed to use my office even when my officemate is around :-p.

JManc May 22, 2021 4:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV (Post 9288406)
I'd like to see legislation explicitly allowing employers to require vaccination for at least new employees/promotions. I've heard anecdotally that a lot of places are scared to require that of employees for legal reasons, real or imagined. UChicago is requiring vaccination of students, but not of staff or faculty, for example (though I suspect vaccination rates among at least the academic staff are near 100%.). It seems like they're likely figuring it out with the lawyers...

All the more reason for the vaccines to be fully approved by the FDA, not merely authorized for emergency use and I would imagine there would be legal hurdles mandating then vaccine until then.

10023 May 22, 2021 8:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kngkyle (Post 9288339)
Ontario is really opening up now.

Tomorrow they are removing the ban on golfing, tennis, and other outdoor recreational activities with less than 5 people.

In mid-June they are planning to allow 15% retail capacity and outdoor seating for up to 4 people per table at restaurants.

Then in July they will allow 6 people per table for outdoor dining, 25% retail capacity, and up to 5 people for indoor gatherings.

Indoor dining might be allowed to some extent by fall.

I'm not joking.

The Canadians are more like the Brits than Americans. They will take whatever their government gives them and say thank you.

10023 May 22, 2021 8:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9288399)
Since COVID is less contagious, we don't need to. 70% was the figure Tony Fauci guessed last year. I think the SF Bay Area can reach 85% when a vaccine is approved for all ages and for this virus that'll probably do it.

If Texas can't get to that figure, Californians traveling there will just have to be sure they've had their shots and perhaps there will be economic consequences.

There will be enough Californians who don’t give a shit. Trust me.

10023 May 22, 2021 8:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9288371)
I totally disagree. Maybe you are too young to remember when just about every kid had measles, chicken pox and mumps, viral diseases that are at least as contagious as COVID. Do you know anybody who's had any of them? Outbreaks of measles and mumps, anyway, make the news and significant outbreaks make the national news. That's because effective vaccines were developed for all. And the fact that there are always some people who don't get vaccinated is what "herd immunity" is about: Eliminating viral transmission to the extent that even the unvaccinated are protected (about 7% of kids don't get the polio vaccine and 10% don't get the measles vaccine and yet a kid getting either is rare).

I cannot believe that a supposed medical professional would attempt to use measles or chicken pox as examples here. The more appropriate precedent is influenza, where easy access to vaccination has clearly not eliminated the disease.

Not only do flu and Covid supposedly spread more easily (measles is also airborne, but as I understand it not totally aerosol - i.e., it spreads through coughs and sneezes or mucus, but not just breathing in the same indoor space), but with very few exceptions, a person can only be infected once.

That creates a massively different potential for universal vaccination. Inoculate every kid before they start kindergarten, and they have lifelong immunity to these viruses. That’s a pretty easy path to herd immunity.

Something that isn’t a serious disease for most and requires annual booster shots for adults, possibly against various different strains (like flu or Covid) will never allow for “universal” vaccination.

But keep dreaming.

chris08876 May 22, 2021 11:58 AM

Traffic has been atrocious lately. That's the one thing I miss from Mother Covid... the lack of traffic.

Innsertnamehere May 22, 2021 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9288478)
The Canadians are more like the Brits than Americans. They will take whatever their government gives them and say thank you.

The reopening plan for Ontario is getting a pretty rough ride right now, people generally aren’t too happy about it.

I can tell you that most people are already ignoring it, especially those with first shots.

Certain things like retail and restaurants can’t be ignored though. But gathering limits? Basically nobody is paying attention to the government regulation at this point.

I suspect it’s timeline will shift up. Canada will be done first shots in the next few weeks and will be done most second shots by the end of July.

iheartthed May 22, 2021 1:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kngkyle (Post 9288339)
Ontario is really opening up now.

Tomorrow they are removing the ban on golfing, tennis, and other outdoor recreational activities with less than 5 people.

In mid-June they are planning to allow 15% retail capacity and outdoor seating for up to 4 people per table at restaurants.

Then in July they will allow 6 people per table for outdoor dining, 25% retail capacity, and up to 5 people for indoor gatherings.

Indoor dining might be allowed to some extent by fall.

I'm not joking.

And people are whining about restrictions in the U.S., lol.

The North One May 22, 2021 3:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kngkyle (Post 9288339)
Ontario is really opening up now.

Tomorrow they are removing the ban on golfing, tennis, and other outdoor recreational activities with less than 5 people.

In mid-June they are planning to allow 15% retail capacity and outdoor seating for up to 4 people per table at restaurants.

Then in July they will allow 6 people per table for outdoor dining, 25% retail capacity, and up to 5 people for indoor gatherings.

Indoor dining might be allowed to some extent by fall.

I'm not joking.

Why is it so extreme in Ontario? Were cases surging there? Seems we're pretty much at the end of this pandemic and Ontario is going full lock-down like it's still march 2020.

chris08876 May 22, 2021 3:51 PM

It's only going to hurt them in the long run. Add to the time that it will take for a full economic recovery. Which sucks for those folks...

MonkeyRonin May 22, 2021 4:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One (Post 9288630)
Why is it so extreme in Ontario? Were cases surging there? Seems we're pretty much at the end of this pandemic and Ontario is going full lock-down like it's still march 2020.


We're just really trying to hit that "longest lockdown in the world" record.

We've basically been in one form or another of shutdown since like October or November of 2020. I can't even remember anymore.

dktshb May 22, 2021 4:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV (Post 9288390)

A friend who stayed with me in Tahoe in the summer of 2019 ended up having the mumps. Even though he had been vaccinated his medication made him immuno compromised. I figured I was okay because I was vaccinated but my Dr. told me to get the MMR vaccine again since I had it over 45 years ago and felt it may not protect me anymore from mumps measles or rubella. He told me the vaccine is not good for a lifetime so I am glad I got it again. Especially because we can thank anti vaxxers for making it a potential issue for all again.

dktshb May 22, 2021 5:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9288399)
Since COVID is less contagious, we don't need to. 70% was the figure Tony Fauci guessed last year. I think the SF Bay Area can reach 85% when a vaccine is approved for all ages and for this virus that'll probably do it.

If Texas can't get to that figure, Californians traveling there will just have to be sure they've had their shots and perhaps there will be economic consequences.

The only Californians traveling to TX are probably moving there. I do not think there will be economic consequences.

10023 May 22, 2021 5:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 9288546)
And people are whining about restrictions in the U.S., lol.

They are right to. Canada seems to be on another level, and one which could never be attempted in a country with widespread private ownership of firearms.

iheartthed May 22, 2021 5:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9288708)
They are right to. Canada seems to be on another level, and one which could never be attempted in a country with widespread private ownership of firearms.

A rebellion. Yeah, sure. lol.

dktshb May 22, 2021 5:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9288708)
They are right to. Canada seems to be on another level, and one which could never be attempted in a country with widespread private ownership of firearms.

and widespread stupidity about a magnitude of things that seems to be rewarded elevated and celebrated.


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