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-   -   How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=242036)

pdxtex May 26, 2020 9:35 PM

Implying remote work is about to become mass outsourcing? Hmmm then there really will be a peasants' revolt. I hope it doesn't come to that.

mhays May 26, 2020 9:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8933214)
I heard about the study through the media but has anyone read it? What are they talking about when they say "we?" No one locked down at the same time and some places pretty much never locked down.

So, who is "we?"

Columbia University. They estimate 36,000 US lives saved by closing one week earlier, and 54,000 two weeks earlier. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lockdown-study

Actually that just lives saved through early May. We'd also have a much smaller problem since then, and going forward. Many books will be written about this clusterfu*k.

Kngkyle May 26, 2020 9:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 8933247)
Do these people really think they'll have jobs if their role could really be performed anywhere?

There's probably a good ~10 years left before engineering/finance/accounting/marketing are at risk of mass outsourcing. And by then the world is going to look dramatically different anyway, in that nationalism will be the norm and free trade the exception.

pdxtex May 26, 2020 9:50 PM

Yes that writing is definitely on the wall. Countries are definitely becoming more protectionist. Hopefully a common national culture will remain a priority as work spaces become more virtual. I guess the future is now. Get down to it boppers.

the urban politician May 26, 2020 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kngkyle (Post 8933271)
There's probably a good ~10 years left before engineering/finance/accounting/marketing are at risk of mass outsourcing. And by then the world is going to look dramatically different anyway, in that nationalism will be the norm and free trade the exception.

Scary

I think I might go live on a farm somewhere and grow my own food

austlar1 May 26, 2020 11:27 PM

After a couple of weeks of gradual re-opening and increased activity outside the home, here in Austin it seems that there is a slight uptick in current hospitalizations, ICU patients, and patients on vents. I've been charting these figures daily for the past 18 days. Numbers were stable at first, but they are quite possibly starting to inch upwards. The number of positive test results has increased by about a third here in Travis County to 2,984, but with increased testing, the only numbers that seem important to me at present relate to deaths (from 60 to 88) and hospitalization/ICU/vent rates. Even if these numbers remain stable (seems unlikely with more people out and about), it is clear that there has been no decline in hospitalizations, etc. I went to a "socially distanced" outdoor birthday party yesterday. There were only about 10 people there mostly seated on a deck with several feet between each chair. I was the only person who even tried to wear my mask most of the time. I was also the oldest person there by 20 years. It was great to be out with people I like, but the whole thing kind of rattled me. I think I am going back into lock-down mode with my dogs at home. I still have some younger folks who are willing to do most of my shopping.

JManc May 26, 2020 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kngkyle (Post 8933271)
There's probably a good ~10 years left before engineering/finance/accounting/marketing are at risk of mass outsourcing. And by then the world is going to look dramatically different anyway, in that nationalism will be the norm and free trade the exception.

Perhaps the least competitive among these fields may be in danger but I doubt a seasoned accountant/ engineer/ etc from a decent school with a masters and the appropriate licensing is in any danger of losing their jobs to someone making $20 in India any time soon. I could see stuff like dedicated CAD designers losing out to outsourcing since most of that is time consuming and detailed oriented anyway.

Crawford May 26, 2020 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kngkyle (Post 8933212)
Right now many of my coworkers are salivating at the opportunity of leaving their high-cost cities to cheaper locales, so they can pay less in taxes, spend less on rent/food, and retire earlier.

I call BS. These coworkers of yours, why are they in places they dislike in the first place? It isn't like you can't find high-paying jobs in any major metro. There are very few jobs that require specific locales, and those jobs haven't dispersed because they can't disperse.

Also, why would someone pay less in food or retire earlier if they moved from, say, Silicon Valley, to Topeka? How does that make sense? Groceries aren't gonna cost less, and that's hardly a significant share of expenses. 401ks don't have differing geographic returns. And if the SV jobs were permanently remote, the salary would obviously eventually decline, as the salary is a function of Peninsula economics, not global economics. If you can do the same job in Bratislava as in Palo Alto, they aren't paying you even a third.

JManc May 27, 2020 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford (Post 8933416)
I call BS. These coworkers of yours, why are they in places they dislike in the first place? It isn't like you can't find high-paying jobs in any major metro. There are very few jobs that require specific locales, and those jobs haven't dispersed because they can't disperse.

Also, why would someone pay less in food or retire earlier if they moved from, say, Silicon Valley, to Topeka? How does that make sense? Groceries aren't gonna cost less, and that's hardly a significant share of expenses. 401ks don't have differing geographic returns. And if the SV jobs were permanently remote, the salary would obviously eventually decline, as the salary is a function of Peninsula economics, not global economics. If you can do the same job in Bratislava as in Palo Alto, they aren't paying you even a third.

A lot of people are in places because of their job or industry and rather be somewhere else because prohibitive cost of living. That's not exactly an earth shattering revelation. California is hemorrhaging people to states like Arizona, Nevada and Texas for that very reason and companies like Twitter and Facebook are giving all clear to work remotely and even at reduced salaries, employees will still probably come out ahead in savings and housing options.

Crawford May 27, 2020 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 8933464)
A lot of people are in places because of their job or industry and rather be somewhere else because prohibitive cost of living. That's not exactly an earth shattering revelation.

Right, but their salaries are high largely due to "prohibitive cost of living". If they could live anywhere, they wouldn't have the same salaries. The people leaving California are fleeing high housing costs.
Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 8933464)
California is hemorrhaging people to states like Arizona, Nevada and Texas for that very reason and companies like Twitter and Facebook are giving all clear to work remotely and even at reduced salaries, employees will still probably come out ahead in savings and housing options.

Again, they could do this pre-pandemic. And every area with higher paying jobs/higher housing costs will "hemorrhage people" to lower housing cost locations. California has robust population growth.

If someone prefers living in Corpus Christi over Palo Alto, there are lots of good paying jobs in TX. Not place-specific jobs, of course, but those aren't going anywhere. Facebook isn't gonna pay the same scale if location doesn't matter.

And CA wouldn't have prohibitive relative housing costs if location doesn't matter. If you had some magic scenario where Bratislava had the same employment advantages as Palo Alto, Palo Alto housing costs would plummet, and those in Bratislava would rise.

JManc May 27, 2020 1:16 AM

Salaries for competitive/ highly skilled jobs will still be fairly high even with reduced CoL allowances. Someone making 2/3rds of they'd make in Mountain View in Corpus Christi would be doing very well and could afford a comfortable quality of life.

I don't think CA's housing costs will ever subside because desirability and critical mass of high paying jobs. If some jobs go away or become WFH, something new will pop up to replace it that needs a warm body in an office.

jtown,man May 27, 2020 1:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8933270)
Columbia University. They estimate 36,000 US lives saved by closing one week earlier, and 54,000 two weeks earlier. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lockdown-study

Actually that just lives saved through early May. We'd also have a much smaller problem since then, and going forward. Many books will be written about this clusterfu*k.

No, I meant who do they mean as "we?" The United States? Because STATES locked down, not the country. So are they saying NY should have closed down a week earlier than they did and then Alabama shutting down a week earlier than they did? Or they all should have locked down at the same time and...earlier...than the earliest state?

Kngkyle May 27, 2020 3:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford (Post 8933416)
I call BS. These coworkers of yours, why are they in places they dislike in the first place? It isn't like you can't find high-paying jobs in any major metro. There are very few jobs that require specific locales, and those jobs haven't dispersed because they can't disperse.

Because they want to make real money (equity), not just a decent salary. For that you pretty much have to be in a bigger city that has a tech presence. Then once you get your foot in the door to one of these places then you are kind of "in" and it's much easier to jump around and move up the pay scales. In the department I work in, it's about 60% non-native New Yorkers who only moved here for work, with generous relocation packages of course.

Quote:

Also, why would someone pay less in food or retire earlier if they moved from, say, Silicon Valley, to Topeka? How does that make sense? Groceries aren't gonna cost less, and that's hardly a significant share of expenses. 401ks don't have differing geographic returns. And if the SV jobs were permanently remote, the salary would obviously eventually decline, as the salary is a function of Peninsula economics, not global economics. If you can do the same job in Bratislava as in Palo Alto, they aren't paying you even a third.
This is sort of what I was alluding to, but from the company's perspective. What benefit is there for any company to hire a remote employee if they are located in New York? Suddenly being located in New York is now a negative instead of a benefit, since that employee will cost far more than someone in a cheaper locale. It'll be interesting to see how these companies adapt.

An interesting dynamic at my company is the lack of "free" meals now with everyone working at home. When you get an offer here one of the great benefits they always tout is the free breakfasts, lunches, and even dinners (if you work late). Now the company is saving the millions of dollars they were previously spending on the in-office cafeterias. They're now trying to figure out how to compensate us for this, especially since our WFH mandate has been extended till end of year.

xzmattzx May 27, 2020 5:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8933270)
Columbia University. They estimate 36,000 US lives saved by closing one week earlier, and 54,000 two weeks earlier. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lockdown-study

Actually that just lives saved through early May. We'd also have a much smaller problem since then, and going forward. Many books will be written about this clusterfu*k.

Meanwhile, if China had implemented non-pharmeceutical interventions three weeks earlier than it actually did, cases could've been reduced by 95%.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....03.20029843v3

turnleft May 27, 2020 5:48 AM

Now that quarantine is slowly being not that strict business is slowly opening up but it is sad that you can see that not all employees are working.

10023 May 27, 2020 6:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kngkyle (Post 8933212)
The real interesting thing to watch in the next few years will be remote work at companies (especially big tech). Right now companies pay a premium to bring talent under the same roof, whether in Silicon Valley, New York City, or London. But a remote worker is a remote worker. What benefit do these companies get by paying a remote worker living in New York 3x as much as a remote worker living in Indianapolis? Or 20x as much as a remote worker living in Manila? Right now many of my coworkers are salivating at the opportunity of leaving their high-cost cities to cheaper locales, so they can pay less in taxes, spend less on rent/food, and retire earlier.

But many people don’t want to move to these cheaper locales.

Also what is the preoccupation with retirement? Wouldn’t you rather try to enjoy your life while you’re fit and healthy rather than thinking everything is going to be great when you’re gray and shrivelled with whatever health issues?

glowrock May 27, 2020 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8933217)
Oh, NYC beaches are open while Chicagos aren't...but they will open SOMETIME this summer...yay

My God.

Yes, my god. My god, you're so freaking selfish all you care about it yourself, regardless of the fact that Chicago's numbers haven't really changed much at all over the last 3-4 weeks while New York's numbers have dropped like a rock! Chicago may have hit its peak, but it's still got a ways to go to really get on the downward trend. Do you REALLY want to see a massive spike in cases and subsequent deaths because people are too damned stupid/selfish to not congregate in large groups?

Seriously. Enough already. If you hate everything about Chicago so much, please leave. Nobody here's going to miss you.


Aaron (Glowrock)

jtown,man May 27, 2020 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glowrock (Post 8933709)
Yes, my god. My god, you're so freaking selfish all you care about it yourself, regardless of the fact that Chicago's numbers haven't really changed much at all over the last 3-4 weeks while New York's numbers have dropped like a rock! Chicago may have hit its peak, but it's still got a ways to go to really get on the downward trend. Do you REALLY want to see a massive spike in cases and subsequent deaths because people are too damned stupid/selfish to not congregate in large groups?

Seriously. Enough already. If you hate everything about Chicago so much, please leave. Nobody here's going to miss you.


Aaron (Glowrock)

Dude, you seem extremely scared, I don't get it. You really look like you are stuck in mid-March when everyone was terrified and we didn't have much information.

Quit calling people selfish, it's getting old. People like you have no problem with the consequences of your actions. The average age of death in Illinois is somewhere around 73 years old. I think the governor of NY said that as of last week, over 100,000 businesses won't ever open up. 100,000, in one state. 1.2 million people in Illinois have no job. Why are you so selfish to want to destroy rather young peoples lives in order to add another 1-5 years on someone who lives in a nursing home?

Your last point- you're unhinged bro. You need to look at statistics, from who this is killing, to it's actual death rate, to our hospital capacity. Who said I hate everything about Chicago? LOL I said our mayor is insane because she won't even let us BIKE OUTSIDE on the lake front. I didn't say "man, Chicago SUX, I can't get a tat right now while getting plastered at my favorite bar." I said something VERY reasonable yet scared men like you like to play the SELFISH card and LEAVE, NO ONE WILL CARE bullshit.

This is where we are at. The #stayhome crew has become a religion. ANY deviation from the doctrine of #stayhome means you are evil, you are a sinner. You can't question things, ever. Questioning things means you don't care, and not caring is evil. Of course, you can only care about the #stayhomes religion, caring for anything else will brand you #selfish, which is the ultimate sin.


Stay home, save your life, leave us alone. lol

glowrock May 27, 2020 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8933718)
Dude, you seem extremely scared, I don't get it. You really look like you are stuck in mid-March when everyone was terrified and we didn't have much information.

Quit calling people selfish, it's getting old. People like you have no problem with the consequences of your actions. The average age of death in Illinois is somewhere around 73 years old. I think the governor of NY said that as of last week, over 100,000 businesses won't ever open up. 100,000, in one state. 1.2 million people in Illinois have no job. Why are you so selfish to want to destroy rather young peoples lives in order to add another 1-5 years on someone who lives in a nursing home?

Your last point- you're unhinged bro. You need to look at statistics, from who this is killing, to it's actual death rate, to our hospital capacity. Who said I hate everything about Chicago? LOL I said our mayor is insane because she won't even let us BIKE OUTSIDE on the lake front. I didn't say "man, Chicago SUX, I can't get a tat right now while getting plastered at my favorite bar." I said something VERY reasonable yet scared men like you like to play the SELFISH card and LEAVE, NO ONE WILL CARE bullshit.

This is where we are at. The #stayhome crew has become a religion. ANY deviation from the doctrine of #stayhome means you are evil, you are a sinner. You can't question things, ever. Questioning things means you don't care, and not caring is evil. Of course, you can only care about the #stayhomes religion, caring for anything else will brand you #selfish, which is the ultimate sin.


Stay home, save your life, leave us alone. lol

I'll continue to call others selfish as much as I'd like, thank you. And people who advocate everything opening up to suit their personal fancies ARE selfish, period.

I'm not any sort of stay at home nut-job. I'm around the public every freaking day, as it's literally my JOB to do so! I take the train, I take the bus, I take ride-shares as well. Sure, do I wish that brewpubs, bars and restaurants were fully re-opened sometimes? You're damn right! But I also know that, especially based upon the large numbers of people I've seen congregating around Belmont/Clark/Halsted the last couple of weeks every time the weather's been nice, many people aren't smart enough to take proper distancing precautions and wear masks. All this does is continue to spread the virus and slow down re-openings.

And yes, I actually agree fully with Mayor Lightfoot keeping the 606, Lakefront Trail and some of the major parks cordoned off. You know why? Take Monday, Memorial Day for example. If Maggie Daley/Millennium Parks were open, there would have likely been tens of thousands of people congregating there, probably 75% without masks. Yeah, that would have likely resulted in a massive spike in cases over the next week or two. No thank you.

I'm sorry, but I think Lightfoot's doing the right thing. She's using science to guide her re-opening strategy, she's being proactive, she's listening to the experts in the field. She's not listening to whining, selfish jackasses who want their hair and nails done right now.

Sorry, man. I know things are a bit boring around here right now because of the closures, but tough crap. Things will slowly return to normal over the next weeks to few months, and we'll all get on with life, even though I honestly believe restaurant and bar culture will essentially be forever changed.

Lastly, I am very well aware of my statistics and the proper usage of them. I've got a science education, and I use it to guide my actions. I'm not afraid, I'm not scared, I'm not a sheep, I'm not anything else like that. I'm simply someone who has been willing to forgo their own personal pleasures for a time for the greater public welfare. In other words, NOT BEING SELFISH.

Aaron (Glowrock)

JManc May 27, 2020 2:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8933718)
The average age of death in Illinois is somewhere around 73 years old.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8933718)
Why are you so selfish to want to destroy rather young peoples lives in order to add another 1-5 years on someone who lives in a nursing home?

I get it that we need to get back to normal as much as possible but I can't get past the wholesale dismissal of an entire group of people. 73 isn't old and those people in nursing homes are parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles...not just faceless old people sucking up resources and keeping the rest of us from getting a hair cut and going to the beach.


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