SkyscraperPage Forum

SkyscraperPage Forum (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/index.php)
-   City Discussions (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=24)
-   -   How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=242036)

SIGSEGV Jul 4, 2020 5:43 AM

I went to lab today for the first time in 3 months (yes, it's a holiday, I purposely went today because I knew nobody would be around).

We had signs like this at the door:
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw...-no?authuser=0

Also, paper towel dispensers everywhere you might need to open a shared door handle or press an elevator button. Marked arrows showing where to walk. Different doors used for entrances/exits. We are still at 25% capacity (and only up to 2 people in our lab) so most work is expected to be remote still.

Also, since I only had a few hours of things to do in lab, I walked there and back (mostly along the lakefront, although I walked through the North Kenwood historic district on my way there). If you've ever been on the lakefront in Chicago on a fourth of July weekend, it's usually slammed. But the CPD was dispersing all picknickers, beachgoers, etc., allowing only through traffic. Apparently I walked something like 18 miles today... and I now have a masktan.

BEER Jul 4, 2020 3:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs (Post 8970420)
You are correct. There has not been any data linking the protests to a surge in cases--but the people who hate the protests insist otherwise without any proof, because they hate the protests.

There has not been any data? New York had 1,134 new cases yesterday. That's the highest new case count since June 19th and is more than double the new daily case count last Friday, June 29th.

Washington D.C., highest case count yesterday, the highest since June 19th.
Illinois, highest case count yesterday, the highest since June 6th.
Minnesota, highest 7 day MA since June 19th.
Maryland, highest case count since June 17th.
Virginia, highest case count since June 13th. In Virginia, there have been zero deaths under the age of 20. 4 deaths under the age of 30, 0.2% of deaths. 17 deaths under the age of 40, 0.9% of deaths. 76% of deaths were over the age of 70.

iheartthed Jul 4, 2020 3:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BEER (Post 8970895)
There has not been any data? New York had 1,134 new cases yesterday. That's the highest new case count since June 19th and is more than double the new daily case count last Friday, June 29th.

Not protest related. It's related to the reopening phases. Suffolk County, on the east end of Long Island, has the highest number of new cases of any county in New York State. There was almost no protest related activity there, but they are at least two weeks ahead of NYC in the reopening phases.

I would also assume the D.C. increases are not related to protests. The protests began on Memorial Day weekend, so the increase in confirmed cases should have been visible by June 19th. The protests has largely fizzled out by mid-June.

This morning the news reported that there was a bump in confirmed cases in northern New Jersey that were all tied to people traveling from states that are current hot zones.

Crawford Jul 4, 2020 3:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BEER (Post 8970895)
There has not been any data?

Correct, there has not been any data, as you have shown.

Unless your claim is that 100% of Americans were protesting cop killings, and 100% of infected Americans have traced their exposure to protests? Is that your claim?

Alabama has like 20x the rate of new infections as NY because apparently the entire state of Alabama was protesting cop killings? Because we all know Alabama is a progressive hotbed?

BEER Jul 4, 2020 6:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford (Post 8970918)
Correct, there has not been any data, as you have shown.

Unless your claim is that 100% of Americans were protesting cop killings, and 100% of infected Americans have traced their exposure to protests? Is that your claim?

Alabama has like 20x the rate of new infections as NY because apparently the entire state of Alabama was protesting cop killings? Because we all know Alabama is a progressive hotbed?

How did you come to this? My post was nothing about this. Alabama has a death rate 8 times lower than New York. The first wave of infections to arrive to Alabama was delayed to places along the northeast coast.

We all know that cases are irrelevant without other information like age groups that are infected and the number of patients residing in communal nursing homes or other similar institutions. This cannot be stressed enough. New cases does not equate to a previous death rates that occurred in places like New York and New Jersey. We now know that old people die and that infected old patients should not receive care at a nursing home. If confused, refer back to an earlier post of mine about Virginia. New York had the highest daily deaths and the highest death rate throughout the entire pandemic. It has doubled in cases since last Friday. There is a rebound occurring there. There are states that have not experienced an apex that New York and other northeastern states have. California never reached a peak. The hardest hit county with new cases inCalifornia is Los Angeles County. The trend in new cases has been up since February. The first wave is rolling through areas that previously had very low exposure and low rates of infection. This too shall pass as it did in Italy, Spain and New York.

If mass gatherings of people on consecutive nights, in highly populated areas for 5 weeks straight don't show a bump in infections, then the economy should reopen fully on Monday. Isolate those at risk and reopen everything for the rest of us that are not at risk. MLB, MLS should resume operations immediately and the NFL in the fall. All parks should open. All restaurants with outdoor patios should reopen and social distancing should be abolished as long as it is outside. The remedy is wear to wear a "face covering".

Pedestrian Jul 4, 2020 7:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford (Post 8970918)
Correct, there has not been any data, as you have shown.

Unless your claim is that 100% of Americans were protesting cop killings, and 100% of infected Americans have traced their exposure to protests? Is that your claim?

Alabama has like 20x the rate of new infections as NY because apparently the entire state of Alabama was protesting cop killings? Because we all know Alabama is a progressive hotbed?

There were an awful lot of people in New York and other protests and each infected person in those protests will have infected at least 2-3 others (probably more in that kind of setting).

The source of new infections will vary from place to place. I'm giving New York credit for being more careful to observe distancing/masking and other policies than other places under normal circumstances because of its recent history with COVID but the protests have been the big exception. Compliance is not nearly as good in most other places and their new infections more likely come from bars and group gatherings. parties and so forth.

Seattle may be another situation like New York. Just look at photos of the CHOP to see why it will likely result in many new infections and, in fact, Washington state, which seemed like a success story, is now looking less like one.

BEER Jul 4, 2020 7:48 PM

I posted this in the Canada Region discussion thread:

Canada has 8,668 deaths. Canada has a death rate of 230 per million. This is below the global median. Everybody would agree that the U.S. would love to be in this shape at this stage in the fight against COVID-19.

The U.S. has a large population dispersed over the entire continent with numerous areas of incredibly high levels of settlement and density. Canada has clustering of high density settlements as well, but far less in numbers.

Canada is doing excellent. If you agree, then you would also agree that as of today, Iowa, Virginia, Alabama, Washington, Missouri, Florida, Nevada, California, South Carolina, Nebraska, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Kentucky, South Dakota, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Maine, Utah, Idaho, West Virginia, Oregon, Wyoming, Montana, Alaska and Hawaii are doing great as well.

They all have a lower death rate than Canada. The population of those states is approximately 185 million people (2015) which is about 56% of the total U.S. population or about the size of 5 Canadas combined.

The states with a higher median death rate than the overall U.S. median DR are and in order: New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, D.C. (not a state, but still on the list), Louisiana, Michigan, Illinois, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Indiana (tie).

The current U.S. death rate is 399 per million. Canada is 230 per million.

craigs Jul 4, 2020 7:53 PM

Yes. I have already provided several links to mainstream media sources reporting that there has not been any data linking the wild surge in COVID-19 cases across the nation to the protests against systemic racist police abuse in America. If you have any links to mainstream sources reporting to the contrary, then provide them.
Quote:

Originally Posted by BEER (Post 8970895)
There has not been any data? New York had 1,134 new cases yesterday. That's the highest new case count since June 19th and is more than double the new daily case count last Friday, June 29th.

Washington D.C., highest case count yesterday, the highest since June 19th.
Illinois, highest case count yesterday, the highest since June 6th.
Minnesota, highest 7 day MA since June 19th.
Maryland, highest case count since June 17th.
Virginia, highest case count since June 13th. In Virginia, there have been zero deaths under the age of 20. 4 deaths under the age of 30, 0.2% of deaths. 17 deaths under the age of 40, 0.9% of deaths. 76% of deaths were over the age of 70.


mhays Jul 4, 2020 8:01 PM

The Alabama point is an example of the huge disconnect here...

Alabama has a MUCH worse death rate than New York RECENTLY/CURRENTLY. New York is actually a pretty low-death state these days, around 20 per day. Alabama is getting nearly as many deaths despite being 1/4 the size. Alabama's death rate has been steady (as its infection rate has started to increase dramatically) while NY's death rate is a tiny fraction of what it was.

Why has one dropped and the other not...one is responding intelligently.

BEER Jul 4, 2020 8:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs (Post 8971067)
Yes. I have already provided several links to mainstream media sources reporting that there has not been any data linking the wild surge in COVID-19 cases across the nation to the protests against systemic racist police abuse in America. If you have any links to mainstream sources reporting to the contrary, then provide them.

What are you talking about? Clear your head and simply look at the numbers. Forget everything else that is troubling for you. Yesterday, New York reported more than double what they reported a week ago.

Please consider that while there are more cases that, that does not mean more deaths to follow. What happened in March and April does not mean it will happen in July and August.

I am simply saying that mass gatherings of thousands of people on a daily basis for 5 weeks straight will result in more cases and we are seeing that in New York and other states previously explained.

Pedestrian Jul 4, 2020 8:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8971076)
The Alabama point is an example of the huge disconnect here...

Alabama has a MUCH worse death rate than New York RECENTLY/CURRENTLY. New York is actually a pretty low-death state these days, around 20 per day. Alabama is getting nearly as many deaths despite being 1/4 the size. Alabama's death rate has been steady (as its infection rate has started to increase dramatically) while NY's death rate is a tiny fraction of what it was.

Why has one dropped and the other not...one is responding intelligently.

The GOVERNMENT of the one is responding intelligently on this issue. Not all the people are. Same goes for my town (SF). Too many individuals are not obeying intelligent rules. Not being in New York, I'm not sure what the situation is under normal conditions and having gone through what they have a month or more ago I suspect compliance is better, but the activities during demonstrations and related actions are definitely NOT intelligent and are probably going to cause a rise in cases (or already have if posters above are to be believed).

Pedestrian Jul 4, 2020 8:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs (Post 8971067)
Yes. I have already provided several links to mainstream media sources reporting that there has not been any data linking the wild surge in COVID-19 cases across the nation to the protests against systemic racist police abuse in America. If you have any links to mainstream sources reporting to the contrary, then provide them.

That's a judgement which is as faulty as the judgements the MSM makes about many things. Forget their opinions about causation and just look at numbers.

Also, keep in mind that it takes 7-14 days to get sick after exposure to coronavirus and another 7-10 days to get sick enough to need hospitalization after the initial onset of symptoms. So only in the last week or so would we be seeing the demonstration-related cases seeking treatment, if any.

BEER Jul 4, 2020 8:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8971087)
That's a judgement which is as faulty as the judgements the MSM makes about many things. Forget their opinions about causation and just look at numbers.

Also, keep in mind that it takes 7-14 days to get sick after exposure to coronavirus and another 7-10 days to get sick enough to need hospitalization after the initial onset of symptoms. So only in the last week or so would we be seeing the demonstration-related cases seeking treatment, if any.

Many of those demonstrators will be asymptomatic, none noticeable symptoms, or develop mild symptoms that won't require medical attention or testing, but they won't feel quite right. They won't have to seek treatment because most of them were under the age of 40. Those demonstrators that were infected in a mass gathering of thousands protesting in the streets have been incubating the virus. During the incubation period, they have had time to go back home, go back to the suburbs, to their families and extended families to spread the virus to other populations that are more susceptible to adverse symptoms resulting in doctor visits, hospitalizations and at times, death. Those same protesters are now cooking hot dogs at the BBQ today with other non protest participants.

If the timeline stands true, by the time schools are about to open for fall enrollment in August, the case count could be very high. If the cases don't jump to older non participant populations then the deaths will be contained. If they make the jump then the second wave in the fall will be worse than the first.

craigs Jul 4, 2020 8:44 PM

When I see reputable sources reporting on solid data proving a given surge was caused by protests, then I will believe it. And not until then.

Not that it matters. It's not like any one of us--or all of us--on this forum were going to prevent the protests by posting something on the Internet a month ago.

BEER Jul 4, 2020 8:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs (Post 8971113)
When I see reputable sources reporting on solid data proving a given surge was caused by protests, then I will believe it. And not until then.

Not that it matters. It's not like any one of us--or all of us--on this forum were going to prevent the protests by posting something on the Internet a month ago.

You're "in Covid-exile" and I would assume that is to avoid interaction with people, crowds and mass gatherings to avoid becoming infected with COVID-19.

mhays Jul 4, 2020 9:14 PM

One side of this discussion is using reported data, and the other is purely speculating.

BEER Jul 4, 2020 9:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8971125)
One side of this discussion is using reported data, and the other is purely speculating.

When it comes to sides what are you referring to?

There is no side with numbers.

mhays Jul 4, 2020 9:22 PM

Links have been posted showing that there doesn't seem to be a correlation between protests and new cases. It's pretty simple so far.

If you want to differ, you're purely speculating. Or you can provide something credible to say otherwise. So far....crickets.

Pedestrian Jul 4, 2020 9:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8971125)
One side of this discussion is using reported data, and the other is purely speculating.

Not speculating; predicting based on what we know about the disease, much as the "experts" do all the time. Those experts, in fact, are mostly making the same predictions but for political reasons they are hesitant to point directly to demonstrations. They talk in terms of "crowds" and "groups of more than 10" and such terminology.

In fact, there are a number of situations in which you will find the kind of groups that are "superspreader" events. Popular bars are one. Some are mass gatherings at certain water parks, beaches and so on. Also youthful parties, frequently associated with collegiate crowds. And finally demonstrations. But the latter have been by far the largest gatherings with little distancing and substantial non-masking in recent weeks.

Pedestrian Jul 4, 2020 9:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8971131)
Links have been posted showing that there doesn't seem to be a correlation between protests and new cases. It's pretty simple so far.

If you want to differ, you're purely speculating. Or you can provide something credible to say otherwise. So far....crickets.

No, it isn't simple at all. And time is everything. As I've said, it takes time for the people infected at these events to become infectious and give it to friends who give it to other friends until it starts showing up in statistics. Links or anybody saying there's no correlation between large crowds of demonstrators and growing numbers of cases should be using the word "yet". If they aren't, they should be ignored.

Remember when people were saying Florida would be a hotspot.

Remember this:

Video Link


Note how long it took for the "speculation" to become reality.


All times are GMT. The time now is 3:09 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.