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-   -   How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=242036)

Pedestrian Apr 25, 2020 9:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV (Post 8904146)
In fact the numbers suggest an IFR of around 1%, which is exactly where experts expected it to be. Unfortunately the media has been conflating CFRs with IFRs which has resulted in mass confusion.

No, you seem to have it backwards. Actually, the IFR seems to be as low as 0.1% from what I've seen reported (and one "expert" actually used that number on TV last night confirming my suspicion). The proven CFR remains around 1-2%, but it's all the asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic (and therefore unrecognized) infections that are raising eyebrows. We are just beginning to detect those as serologic testing ramps up.

Emprise du Lion Apr 25, 2020 11:37 PM

Ended up seeing this on Reddit. Someone did a montage of St. Louis during the shutdown.

Video Link


I do have a bit more hope for a lot of restaurants/bars here than I did before after it became temporarily legal for them to start selling pre-made cocktails to go. It's apparently been a boon to many businesses in terms of income and has certainly made takeout more enticing.

Pedestrian Apr 25, 2020 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8904191)
No, you seem to have it backwards. Actually, the IFR seems to be as low as 0.1% from what I've seen reported (and one "expert" actually used that number on TV last night confirming my suspicion). The proven CFR remains around 1-2%, but it's all the asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic (and therefore unrecognized) infections that are raising eyebrows. We are just beginning to detect those as serologic testing ramps up.

Quote:

. . . is that 3% infection ratio accurate, and if not, what is the real number? To understand this, we need to understand the difference between case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR). CFR is the ratio of the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed (preferably by nucleic acid testing) cases of disease. IFR is the ratio of deaths divided by the number of actual infections with SARS-CoV-2. Because nucleic acid testing is limited and currently available primarily to people with significant indications of and risk factors for covid-19 disease, and because a large number of infections with SARS-CoV-2 result in mild or even asymptomatic disease, the IFR is likely to be significantly lower than the CFR. The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at the University of Oxford currently estimates the CFR globally at 0.51%, with all the caveats pertaining thereto. CEBM estimates the IFR at 0.1% to 0.26%, with even more caveats pertaining thereto.

Crunching some numbers, if IHME estimates 3% of the US population (~330M) resistant to the disease after the first wave, that implies 9.9M infections. The IHME prediction of ~93,000 deaths implies an IFR of 0.9%, close to the commonly estimated 1% CFR globally. Note that IHME is really only projecting deaths based on real data, and therefore should not be faulted for choosing a conservative estimate of infection rate (~1%), especially given that the IFR is, at this point in time, a particularly slippery number. However, if, just for argument’s sake, the IFR is really as low as 0.1%, then it follows that after the first wave of disease, as much as 30% of the US population will have been infected and thus resistant to reinfection. It seems to me that this would give the virus considerably less fertile ground to grow on and significantly dampen the impact of a second wave.
https://www.virology.ws/2020/04/05/i...ging-covid-19/

Pedestrian Apr 26, 2020 1:46 AM

San Francisco Hilton Hotel:

https://uniim1.shutterfly.com/ng/ser...865504/enhance
Taken by a neighbor

SIGSEGV Apr 26, 2020 5:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8904191)
No, you seem to have it backwards. Actually, the IFR seems to be as low as 0.1% from what I've seen reported (and one "expert" actually used that number on TV last night confirming my suspicion). The proven CFR remains around 1-2%, but it's all the asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic (and therefore unrecognized) infections that are raising eyebrows. We are just beginning to detect those as serologic testing ramps up.

The IFR can't be as low as 0.1 percent as more than 0.1 percent of NYC's population has died from COVID-19 (close to 0.2 percent if you include the probable deaths count from the NYC DPH). If you believe the serological study in NYC, 0.5-0.9 of those who have likely been exposed in NYC have died, and that's not accounting for those who are infected but have not died yet, bringing the likely IFR for NYC to be likely in the ~1%+ range.

NYC is the only population in the US where the false positive rate of the antibody tests is not a huge effect (since the virus is obviously more widespread in NYC than anywhere else). The Stanford study was almost certainly measuring mostly false positives (unless somehow the IFR in NYC is 10x worse than California, for some unknown reason).

mrnyc Apr 26, 2020 6:51 AM

more nice


https://apnews.com/fe7a9ca4e8870819474af243e8d9d233

jtown,man Apr 26, 2020 1:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrnyc (Post 8904491)

He needs to wear a mask when outside.

the urban politician Apr 26, 2020 3:24 PM

Yesterday I put down some newspapers, sat my kids on them, grabbed a set of scissors, and gave them both haircuts.

Very amateur looking haircuts.

You gotta do what you gotta do, but suffice to say that our family will be having a very bad hair-month

iheartthed Apr 26, 2020 4:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8904135)
Yeah, we all know we are banned from comparing the flu to Corona, so it goes without saying we should ban war and Corona comparisons, which make no sense.

Anyways, back to OT. My mayor has still not budged on allowing people to ride their bikes on the 18-mile lakefront trail. As soon as school ends I will be heading down to Arkansas to spend my money and enjoy life.

Covid-19 has killed more Americans than died of the flu last season in the U.S.

jtown,man Apr 26, 2020 5:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 8904619)
Covid-19 has killed more Americans than died of the flu last season in the U.S.

We're not allowed to bring up the flu and corona.


Or, we weren't allowed to bring it up until the number of deaths from Corona went higher than the flu deaths?

iheartthed Apr 26, 2020 5:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8904641)
We're not allowed to bring up the flu and corona.


Or, we weren't allowed to bring it up until the number of deaths from Corona went higher than the flu deaths?

Is that a rule on this thread? If so then moderator, please delete my comment. If not, the reason we're not talking about it anymore is because of what I stated in my comment. COVID-19 killed more people in a month than the flu in a year.

mhays Apr 26, 2020 5:51 PM

It's the leading cause of death as long as the daily toll is over about 1,900...a little over cancer and heart disease.

jtown,man Apr 26, 2020 6:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 8904642)
Is that a rule on this thread? If so then moderator, please delete my comment. If not, the reason we're not talking about it anymore is because of what I stated in my comment. COVID-19 killed more people in a month than the flu in a year.

lol no man I am actually sorry that I made it look like a rule. I was just joking based on past conversations on here.

The North One Apr 26, 2020 6:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8904643)
It's the leading cause of death as long as the daily toll is over about 1,900...a little over cancer and heart disease.

Funny how quickly things change, weren't there idiots just a few weeks ago trying to compare this to car deaths?

hauntedheadnc Apr 26, 2020 6:26 PM

The local news down in Greenville, SC, about an hour away from where I live, steps back in time to see how their city handled things the last time we had a pandemic like this:

Opinion: How Greenville endured pandemic and quarantine in the early 1900s
By Dr. Courtney L. Tollison, Furman University

Quote:

One hundred years ago, Greenvillians were under quarantine. Like us, they didn’t go to school, the theater or the movies. Like us, they ordered food at cafes and restaurants and waited outside. Like us, they wore masks, spent a lot of time outside, and physically distanced themselves, though they remained 5, not 6, feet away from one another.

Like us, they feared the effects of a global pandemic. Though the Spanish Influenza they confronted from 1918-1920 was deadlier, ultimately killing upwards of 50 million globally and 203 Greenvillians in October 1918 alone, the act of quarantining was not as foreign to people living then as it is to us today.

Between 1905 and 1920, Furman University students were quarantined six times on account of measles, meningitis, mumps and the Spanish Influenza. Men training at Camp Sevier, Greenville’s World War I training camp located near modern-day Wade Hampton Boulevard, operated under quarantine restrictions in November 1917 due to a measles outbreak. When the most virulent outbreak of the Spanish Influenza infected Greenville in late September 1918, residents had already been under quarantine earlier that year due to an outbreak of meningitis.

The pandemic of a century ago arrived in three waves over the course of 16 months. Though the second wave was the most virulent, Greenvillians were quarantined again in January 1919 and February 1920, with partial quarantines in 1922 and 1924. There was no vaccine for Spanish Influenza, just as there is no vaccine for COVID-19. However, It wasn’t until the 1930s that medical researchers realized that strain of influenza was viral and not bacterial.

According to oral histories recorded in 1980, Naomi Sizemore Trammell of Poe Mill suffered so badly that she wanted to die, while Ila Hartsell Dodson, then a young girl living on West Avenue near the village of West Greenville, remembers “(b)urning up with a temperature.”

Jessie Lee Carter’s mother helped sick neighbors in Brandon Mill village: “My mother was never afraid of the flu….She said she know’d the Lord was going to take care of her. If (H)e wanted her to have the flu and die, that’s the way for her to go.”

On Fifth Street in the Woodside Mill village, Geddes E. Dodson’s entire family contracted influenza. “I remember we was all so sick, my mother just got up and went to waiting on us, giving us aspirins and hot lemon tea. I had a mattress on my bed, and I perspired so much till it went through the mattress and dripped on the floor. ...It was an awful feeling. We didn’t know whether we was going to live or die….That was the rottenest sickness I ever had in my life.”

Architect Joseph G. Cunningham contracted a mild case of the flu and was eager to return to work. Every day, to deter him, his wife Beulah simply pointed outside, where, from their house on East Park Avenue near Springwood Cemetery, the daily transport of the dead passed.
Source.

jtown,man Apr 26, 2020 7:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One (Post 8904665)
Funny how quickly things change, weren't there idiots just a few weeks ago trying to compare this to car deaths?

Yeah, this idiot is still doing that.

My point was very clear, but people ignored it for various reasons. We have a death rate of somewhere around 17 per 100k for car wrecks.

The point wasn't that cars are more deadly, the point was "not every life matters", according to the way we legislate. Do you think Texas did a study on how many more people would die when they raised their interstate speeds from 70 to 75? Of course they did. Obviously they found that more people would die, but they also found the economic impact was worth it. We make those types of choices(for various reasons) every day.

The point wasn't to compare death rates though, the point was to say; calm down, think about what you are doing. I think that was smart a month ago and it's smarter today. I have *yet* to hear what the endgame is besides waiting for a year for a vaccine that may never come. So yes, it is smart to compare this to other things we have control over and allow death to happen.

Even with stay at home orders, we have over 50k dead people. So we obviously make choices that still kill people. So if we were to follow a more liberal approach of the Swedes, we would be somewhere around 63k dead but we wouldn't be seeing spikes when people INEVITABLY go back outside.

I mean, what is the goal? Everyone stay home until it disappears? Not gonna happen.

Steely Dan Apr 26, 2020 8:12 PM

In a positive sign that Chicago is flattening the curve, the make-shift emergency covid-19 care facility at Chicago's convention center has been scaled back from its original 3,000 bed capacity, down to only 1,000 beds.

mhays Apr 27, 2020 1:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8904728)
I have *yet* to hear what the endgame is besides waiting for a year for a vaccine that may never come.

I mean, what is the goal? Everyone stay home until it disappears? Not gonna happen.

Wow, this country is doing a horrible job of explaining things.

We're obviously not going to stay at home until a vaccine. My understanding is that we can open most things relatively safely if at least a couple of these happen:
1. The infection rates get low enough.
2. Mass testing is easy and fast, so we can idenity outbreaks and focus there instead of broadly.
3. We have decent treatments, which could be much sooner than a vaccine.

None of that has happened, but there's a middle ground. During an interim period where we've slowed transmissions but don't have most of the above, we can reopen some things but reduce transmission rates by:
4. Work from home when possible, and no matter what if we're sick (some jobs will need sick leave to be established, which should be mandated).
5. Focus on hygiene.
6. Limit the most obvious opportunities for large scale infection, like spectator sports.

dave8721 Apr 27, 2020 5:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8904917)
Wow, this country is doing a horrible job of explaining things.

We're obviously not going to stay at home until a vaccine. My understanding is that we can open most things relatively safely if at least a couple of these happen:
1. The infection rates get low enough.
2. Mass testing is easy and fast, so we can idenity outbreaks and focus there instead of broadly.
3. We have decent treatments, which could be much sooner than a vaccine.

None of that has happened, but there's a middle ground. During an interim period where we've slowed transmissions but don't have most of the above, we can reopen some things but reduce transmission rates by:
4. Work from home when possible, and no matter what if we're sick (some jobs will need sick leave to be established, which should be mandated).
5. Focus on hygiene.
6. Limit the most obvious opportunities for large scale infection, like spectator sports.

#6 would also include Airplanes (which are still flying now). Probably movie theaters as well

Pedestrian Apr 27, 2020 7:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV (Post 8904471)
The IFR can't be as low as 0.1 percent as more than 0.1 percent of NYC's population has died from COVID-19 (close to 0.2 percent if you include the probable deaths count from the NYC DPH). If you believe the serological study in NYC, 0.5-0.9 of those who have likely been exposed in NYC have died, and that's not accounting for those who are infected but have not died yet, bringing the likely IFR for NYC to be likely in the ~1%+ range.

NYC is the only population in the US where the false positive rate of the antibody tests is not a huge effect (since the virus is obviously more widespread in NYC than anywhere else). The Stanford study was almost certainly measuring mostly false positives (unless somehow the IFR in NYC is 10x worse than California, for some unknown reason).

NY is an outlier in almost every respect. But we'll see.

So you think the folks at Stanford are too stupid to figure out that their testing is suspect like you have?


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