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sopas ej Apr 1, 2021 3:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbermingham123 (Post 9235276)
these guys look like they'd be more into Johnson and Johnson.. if ya know what i mean

I do. And that's kinda why I posted the meme. :P

Incidentally, my partner and I will be getting our first doses of the COVID vaccine on Monday. I've never been so excited about getting a shot before! :P

We'll be getting it at CVS... but at two different locations, and at different times, but at least on the same day. Booking it online, you kind of have to take what you can get, and you can only book one person at a time.

So we'll both be taking Monday off from work and making a day of it. His appointment is in the morning in Monterey Park, and mine is in the evening in Buena Park. So maybe we'll have Burmese food for lunch, and Korean food for dinner. :P

Oh, and we'll both be Moderna. ;)

JManc Apr 1, 2021 3:24 PM

I got my second Pfizer this past Monday and it kicked my ass. My wife gets her second Moderna this afternoon and most assuredly it will kick her ass. Definitely worth the agony.

homebucket Apr 1, 2021 3:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sopas ej (Post 9235516)
I do. And that's kinda why I posted the meme. :P

Incidentally, my partner and I will be getting our first doses of the COVID vaccine on Monday. I've never been so excited about getting a shot before! :P

We'll be getting it at CVS... but at two different locations, and at different times, but at least on the same day. Booking it online, you kind of have to take what you can get, and you can only book one person at a time.

So we'll both be taking Monday off from work and making a day of it. His appointment is in the morning in Monterey Park, and mine is in the evening in Buena Park. So maybe we'll have Burmese food for lunch, and Korean food for dinner. :P

Oh, and we'll both be Moderna. ;)

Which location are you doing? I was browsing online and it seemed like CVS was fully booked in all the metro/urban areas. The city nearest to me with an opening was Fresno/Clovis and Chico. Saw a bunch in like Riverside and other outskirt Socal/Central Valley locations like Bakersfield.

Edit: seems like Riverside is now fully booked. Still have openings in the CV though.

SteveD Apr 1, 2021 3:42 PM

I have to travel for work. I've had about 15 flights over the past year during COVID. Delta (I'm in Atlanta, that's the only airline I fly) just announced they are ending their policy of blocking middle seats on May 1. I really wish they'd keep it going a little longer. I've been saying for months that I feel safer traveling than I do going grocery shopping, but that will no longer be the case if I've got a stranger right up on my side for a couple or three hours. I guess I'm going to have to purchase First Class and pass that cost on to my clients, at least for the next few months until much more people are vaccinated and daily new cases drop to much lower levels than they are at right now.

sopas ej Apr 1, 2021 3:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by homebucket (Post 9235529)
Which location are you doing? I was browsing online and it seemed like CVS was fully booked in all the metro/urban areas. The city nearest to me with an opening was Fresno/Clovis and Chico. Saw a bunch in like Riverside and other outskirt Socal/Central Valley locations like Bakersfield.

Edit: seems like Riverside is now fully booked. Still have openings in the CV though.

I'll be doing mine in Buena Park (northern Orange County, where Knott's Berry Farm is), and my partner will be doing his in Monterey Park, in a very Chinese part of the San Gabriel Valley.

I had to keep clicking, and different areas would pop up, as well as different dates, and I couldn't choose my date. And then there were times when a location would pop up, but then there were no available times at that location. I used our home ZIP (91030/South Pasadena) and was able to book for my partner at the Monterey Park location, and I used my parents' ZIP (90703/Cerritos) to book for myself at the Buena Park location.

Maybe if you keep trying, you'll get one closer to you.

jtown,man Apr 1, 2021 4:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 9235508)
So I was clarifying that landing in Newark did not allow someone to skirt the rules. Also, they did perform random stops at the crossing points into New York to inform travelers of the requirement. But it was/is a "self-quarantine" requirement, meaning that it's up to you to arrange your own quarantine. It's on the honor system, so it's up to you on whether you follow it or not, but if you get caught not adhering to it then you have a legal liability. To this day, I think only one person has ever been prosecuted, but theoretically they could prosecute anyone for which there is sufficient evidence that they broke the rule.

Could you imagine being the ONE person prosecuted for that? LOL

jtown,man Apr 1, 2021 4:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveD (Post 9235541)
I have to travel for work. I've had about 15 flights over the past year during COVID. Delta (I'm in Atlanta, that's the only airline I fly) just announced they are ending their policy of blocking middle seats on May 1. I really wish they'd keep it going a little longer. I've been saying for months that I feel safer traveling than I do going grocery shopping, but that will no longer be the case if I've got a stranger right up on my side for a couple or three hours. I guess I'm going to have to purchase First Class and pass that cost on to my clients, at least for the next few months until much more people are vaccinated and daily new cases drop to much lower levels than they are at right now.

I saw someone on CNN say that blocking the middle seat isn't as important as keeping the seats in front and behind you empty.

homebucket Apr 1, 2021 4:45 PM

Good policy.

Quote:

Going to a San Francisco Giants game? Bring negative COVID test results or a vaccination card
Thursday, April 1, 2021 9:35AM

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- The San Francisco Giants will require fans show proof of a recent negative COVID-19 test or a full vaccination record in order to attend home games at Oracle Park.

The team announced the new entry requirements Thursday.

Fans must test negative for COVID-19 within 72 hours of the first game they attend in a homestand. All fans 12 and older are required to present proof of a negative result.

Fans can download the free Clear Health Pass to upload negative test results, or they can present an electronic or paper copy at the entry gates.

For fans who have been vaccinated, they must have received both doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or a single dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine two weeks before the game.

Fans can bring an electronic or paper copy of their completed vaccination card to the ballpark for entry.

The plan to bring fans back to the ballpark was approved by San Francisco's Acting Health Officer, Dr. Susan Philip. Masks will be required and social distancing will be enforced. Seating pods will be distanced from other groups, and fans will need to order food and beverages through a mobile app for pick-up at designated stands located near their assigned seats.

The Giants' home opener is scheduled for April 9 against the Colorado Rockies at 1:35 p.m.

In accordance with the approved plan, capacity at Oracle Park will be capped at 22 percent or approximately 9,000 fans in attendance.
https://abc7news.com/sports/sf-giant...tion/10468373/

sopas ej Apr 1, 2021 5:07 PM

From Pasadena Now:

Pasadena Marks 7th Straight Day Without a COVID-19 Death

3 new infections detected Wednesday

BY BRIAN DAY AND CITY NEWS SERVICE
Published on Thursday, April 1, 2021 | 5:52 am

For the seventh day in a row, no COVID-19 fatalities were reported in Pasadena on Wednesday, officials said.

Three new infections raised the city’s total to 11,139, while the local death toll stood at 335, according to Pasadena Public Health Department data.

Officials at Huntington Hospital reported 18 COVID-19 patients still being treated at the facility, with only one of them in an intensive care unit.

The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health on Wednesday reported another 40 COVID-19 deaths, lifting the cumulative countywide total to 23,143.

Another 648 cases were also reported, giving the county a cumulative total from throughout the pandemic of 1,219,562.

According to state figures, there were 652 people hospitalized in the county due to COVID-19, an increase from 638 on Tuesday. There were 166 people in intensive care units as of Wednesday, up from 158 Tuesday.

Los Angeles County, including Pasadena, reached the threshold to move into the “orange” tier under the state’s reopening guidelines on Tuesday, but health officials at both the county and city levels are holding off until Monday to lift “red” tier restrictions.

Despite the move to the orange tier, health officials continued to preach vigilance, warning that cases have been rising in other states and countries. They said the continued emergence of COVID-19 variants that can spread more easily from person to person could lead to another surge in cases.

L.A. County Director of Public Health Barabra Ferrer noted Wednesday that 30 U.S. states and territories are seeing increases in cases, and while she understands the desire of people to move beyond the pandemic, recent scenes of people flocking to beaches and Tuesday night’s celebration by UCLA students following the university’s NCAA tournament victory could lead to another surge.

“Clearly you know when you see overcrowding at beaches, you see events like we saw last night with students having huge parties and none of them really looked like they were wearing their masks, you created a lot of risk — risk for yourself, but unfortunately, risk for a lot of other people,” she said.

“So these … poor choices that people are making right now don’t bode well for anybody in this country, they don’t bode well for us here in L.A. County. They certainly don’t bode well for residents in the rest of the country where, you know, it seems to be more common for some folks to not realize how important it is at this point in time to continue to take protections that still will save lives.”

The California Department of Public Health reported 1,962 new cases of COVID-19 and 148 deaths on Wednesday, bringing the overall totals to 3,568,426 infections and 57,936 fatalities.

The statewide average positivity rate over the prior week increased slightly to 1.8%, up from 1.6% on Tuesday, according to CDPH data.

As of Wednesday, L.A. County represented 34% of California’s COVID-19 infections and 40% of the state’s deaths.

Link: https://www.pasadenanow.com/main/pas...ovid-19-death/

SteveD Apr 1, 2021 5:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9235616)
I saw someone on CNN say that blocking the middle seat isn't as important as keeping the seats in front and behind you empty.

That's interesting. I can see how that would make sense. I've really appreciated the "half full" flights over the past year but it seems like that's about to end. Up in first class they've only been selling half the seats, and it was staggered front to back in the two by two configuration, so most times there wasn't anyone directly in front or back. I never purchase first class but get upgraded frequently due to my years of travel and medallion status. It's just going to feel very different if we go right back to jam packed flights...

sopas ej Apr 1, 2021 5:12 PM

From ABC7:

How soon will LA County reach herd immunity?

By Rob Hayes

LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- Los Angeles County is now eligible to advance into a less-restrictive tier on the state's color-coded reopening system, but it will wait until Monday to make the move and some rules will be stricter than state guidelines.

As the county prepares for further reopenings, vaccine shortages remains a problem. But county health leaders say if it can average roughly 500,000 doses a week, it will take just 12 weeks to get 80% of people 16 and older vaccinated - a threshold Dr. Anthony Fauci says is required for herd immunity to the virus.

L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer on Wednesday expressed confidence that vaccine supplies will continue to improve, with the county projecting that a total of 700,000 doses per week will be dispatched to the county by the end of April.

"If L.A. County receives on average 576,000 doses a week, starting in April, we can expect to reach 80% vaccine coverage for people 16 and older in just 12 more weeks," Ferrer said. "Reaching such a milestone is possible with increased allocations, and it will dramatically change the trajectory of the pandemic here in L.A. County."

This week, however, Ferrer discussed that demand exceeded supply.

"While the number of doses we received increased, the lack of supply does remain our biggest obstacle, as the county could have easily booked almost 300,000 additional appointments this week, but we didn't because we didn't have enough vaccine," Ferrer said.

Ferrer said even though L.A. County residents 50 or older will be eligible for vaccines starting Thursday, there won't be enough shots for everyone.

Meanwhile, with the county gradually easing its COVID-19 safety protocols, the doors to the Natural History Museum open to the public Thursday with limited capacity, and the La Brea Tar Pits and Museum reopens next Thursday.

The move to the orange tier means more capacity at retail stores, movie theaters, restaurants and other attractions, along with an array of other adjustments, including the reopening -- outdoors only -- of bars that don't serve food.

Ferrer said a revised Health Officer Order will be posted on Friday so business owners will be aware of all the new guidelines and have the weekend to adjust their operations accordingly. While the county is largely aligning with state guidelines for the orange tier, it will have some stricter requirements.

Most notably, bars will be limited to outdoor table service only, operating only from 11:30 a.m. to 10 p.m., with a required 8-foot distance between outdoor tables. Although state guidelines allow a lifting of all capacity restrictions on retail establishments in the orange tier, Los Angeles County will impose a 75% limit for grocery stores and other retail operations, while "strongly" recommending they remain at 50% capacity until April 15 to allow time for more workers to get vaccinated.

In accordance with state guidelines, the county will raise the capacity limit from 25% to 50% for movie theaters, churches, museums, zoos, aquariums and restaurants. Fitness center capacity will be increased from 10% to 25%. Card rooms and family entertainment centers can resume indoor operations at 25% capacity.

Breweries and wineries will be able to offer indoor service at 25% capacity. Breweries, wineries and bars will all be allowed to turn on their television sets outdoors, but live entertainment remains prohibited.

It was unclear if the county will continue to ban restaurants from turning on their television sets -- a requirement imposed to prevent gatherings of sports fans.

City News Service contributed to this report.

Link: https://abc7.com/los-angeles-coronav...cine/10466071/

jtown,man Apr 1, 2021 5:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sopas ej (Post 9235704)


It was unclear if the county will continue to ban restaurants from turning on their television sets -- a requirement imposed to prevent gatherings of sports fans.

You know the government has too much power when they are mandating businesses can't turn on a tv. My God.

JManc Apr 1, 2021 6:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9235769)
You know the government has too much power when they are mandating businesses can't turn on a tv. My God.

No kidding. And I recall their governor saying restaurant patrons should wear masks between bites and drinks. WTF, lol.

10023 Apr 1, 2021 7:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sopas ej (Post 9235704)
From ABC7:

How soon will LA County reach herd immunity?

By Rob Hayes

LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- Los Angeles County is now eligible to advance into a less-restrictive tier on the state's color-coded reopening system, but it will wait until Monday to make the move and some rules will be stricter than state guidelines.

As the county prepares for further reopenings, vaccine shortages remains a problem. But county health leaders say if it can average roughly 500,000 doses a week, it will take just 12 weeks to get 80% of people 16 and older vaccinated - a threshold Dr. Anthony Fauci says is required for herd immunity to the virus.

L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer on Wednesday expressed confidence that vaccine supplies will continue to improve, with the county projecting that a total of 700,000 doses per week will be dispatched to the county by the end of April.

"If L.A. County receives on average 576,000 doses a week, starting in April, we can expect to reach 80% vaccine coverage for people 16 and older in just 12 more weeks," Ferrer said. "Reaching such a milestone is possible with increased allocations, and it will dramatically change the trajectory of the pandemic here in L.A. County."

This week, however, Ferrer discussed that demand exceeded supply.

"While the number of doses we received increased, the lack of supply does remain our biggest obstacle, as the county could have easily booked almost 300,000 additional appointments this week, but we didn't because we didn't have enough vaccine," Ferrer said.

Ferrer said even though L.A. County residents 50 or older will be eligible for vaccines starting Thursday, there won't be enough shots for everyone.

Meanwhile, with the county gradually easing its COVID-19 safety protocols, the doors to the Natural History Museum open to the public Thursday with limited capacity, and the La Brea Tar Pits and Museum reopens next Thursday.

The move to the orange tier means more capacity at retail stores, movie theaters, restaurants and other attractions, along with an array of other adjustments, including the reopening -- outdoors only -- of bars that don't serve food.

Ferrer said a revised Health Officer Order will be posted on Friday so business owners will be aware of all the new guidelines and have the weekend to adjust their operations accordingly. While the county is largely aligning with state guidelines for the orange tier, it will have some stricter requirements.

Most notably, bars will be limited to outdoor table service only, operating only from 11:30 a.m. to 10 p.m., with a required 8-foot distance between outdoor tables. Although state guidelines allow a lifting of all capacity restrictions on retail establishments in the orange tier, Los Angeles County will impose a 75% limit for grocery stores and other retail operations, while "strongly" recommending they remain at 50% capacity until April 15 to allow time for more workers to get vaccinated.

In accordance with state guidelines, the county will raise the capacity limit from 25% to 50% for movie theaters, churches, museums, zoos, aquariums and restaurants. Fitness center capacity will be increased from 10% to 25%. Card rooms and family entertainment centers can resume indoor operations at 25% capacity.

Breweries and wineries will be able to offer indoor service at 25% capacity. Breweries, wineries and bars will all be allowed to turn on their television sets outdoors, but live entertainment remains prohibited.

It was unclear if the county will continue to ban restaurants from turning on their television sets -- a requirement imposed to prevent gatherings of sports fans.

City News Service contributed to this report.

Link: https://abc7.com/los-angeles-coronav...cine/10466071/

A long fucking time if they don’t open up and wait for everyone to be vaccinated.

Once over 50s are vaccinated, there is no reason not to open up completely.

Pedestrian Apr 1, 2021 7:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9235318)

So yeah, continue to wear your mask. Please do if you like it. But a MANDATE for healthy people and people already vaccinated is not only pointless, its just politics.

COVID isn't over. Any discussion about removing mandates is premature. As long as the pandemic exists, I think stores and other indoor places should have two choices: People entering wear masks of show proof of immunity (either vaccination or antibodies from having had COVID and recovered). Obviously, just requiring a mask is the easiest approach. The alternative is to keep indoor commercial activity closed entirely and few people want to keep doing that.

The mandate is not pointless nor "just politics" because right now there's no way to separate the various categories of individuals: Vaccinated, naturally immune, not immune and potentially infected. The easiest approach by far is just asking everybody to wear a mask. And I don't much care about people not liking to be told what to do. I am of the generation that was still subject to a draft and we were told to go die in Vietnam. It's all relative. I do NOT feel your pain.

Pedestrian Apr 1, 2021 7:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9235769)
You know the government has too much power when they are mandating businesses can't turn on a tv. My God.

This was in bars as I recall. The alternative, and what they should have done IMHO, was keep bars closed, at least for indoor service (make do with outdoor "beer gardens"). The bit about TV was to prevent crowds in sports bars but, yes, it's a pretty stupid idea.

There's no doubt the government can keep bars closed. They've always required a government license to operate. Just suspend all on-premises liquor licences.

Camelback Apr 1, 2021 7:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9235769)
You know the government has too much power when they are mandating businesses can't turn on a tv. My God.

Did you hear about the no screaming on rollercoasters proposal?

Primal fear of falling to your death is NOT ALLOWED under any circumstances.

Pedestrian Apr 1, 2021 7:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by homebucket (Post 9235640)
The San Francisco Giants will require fans show proof of a recent negative COVID-19 test or a full vaccination record in order to attend home games at Oracle Park.

And how long will it be in ever-politically correct San Francisco before somebody points out that vaccination rates among affluent whites are far higher than among poorer "people of color" and therefore this policy is severely racist?

Pedestrian Apr 1, 2021 7:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Camelback (Post 9235929)
Did you hear about the no screaming on rollercoasters proposal?

Primal fear of falling to your death is NOT ALLOWED under any circumstances.

The solution here is to pretty much stop regulating outdoor behavior, whether screaming, masks or whatever. The risks are INDOORS or other confined spaces like aircraft cabins.

sopas ej Apr 1, 2021 7:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9235927)
This was in bars as I recall. The alternative, and what they should have done IMHO, was keep bars closed, at least for indoor service (make do with outdoor "beer gardens"). The bit about TV was to prevent crowds in sports bars but, yes, it's a pretty stupid idea.

There's no doubt the government can keep bars closed. They've always required a government license to operate. Just suspend all on-premises liquor licences.

It was for restaurants as well, and it did help lessen crowds. My partner and I don't give a flying turd about Super Bowl, and it was so nice not having to avoid certain restaurants because we knew loud drunk people would be yelling and booing every so often. We were able to have a nice meal out on Super Bowl Sunday, and we didn't even realize it was Super Bowl Sunday until we got home and I turned on the news.

iheartthed Apr 1, 2021 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9235605)
Could you imagine being the ONE person prosecuted for that? LOL

That person went out of their way to earn it, hence why they're the only one prosecuted for it lol.

Pedestrian Apr 1, 2021 10:33 PM

30% of Americans, which means 40% of adults, have now gotten at least one dose of vaccine. Studies suggest about 30% of the population has had COVID, whether or not symptomatic. That means around 60% of the adult population (half the total population) should have some degree of immunity.

Todays WSJ reported what one would assume. New cases are concentrated among the unvaccinated: Those between 18 and 34. While these people usually don't end up in ICUs on ventilators, they can get sick enough to require hospitalization and hospitalizations are rising. The presumption is that the increase in infection rates in this group is a combination of the fact that they disproportionately work in jobs involving direct public contact and they disproportionately socialize in groups (as well as the fact that so many of them feel invulnerable and so have abandoned precautions).

Anyway, we should be approaching the point where we can see a "herd immunity" effect, if only in the muting of any new surge. After all, the virus has only half the population to work on.

jtown,man Apr 1, 2021 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9235920)
COVID isn't over. Any discussion about removing mandates is premature. As long as the pandemic exists, I think stores and other indoor places should have two choices: People entering wear masks of show proof of immunity (either vaccination or antibodies from having had COVID and recovered). Obviously, just requiring a mask is the easiest approach. The alternative is to keep indoor commercial activity closed entirely and few people want to keep doing that.

The mandate is not pointless nor "just politics" because right now there's no way to separate the various categories of individuals: Vaccinated, naturally immune, not immune and potentially infected. The easiest approach by far is just asking everybody to wear a mask. And I don't much care about people not liking to be told what to do. I am of the generation that was still subject to a draft and we were told to go die in Vietnam. It's all relative. I do NOT feel your pain.

A mandate after a certain amount of people are vaccinated is pointless and political.

You don't have to feel my pain. I don't have pain lol I am simply not wearing my mask outdoors anymore, its really that simple.

JManc Apr 2, 2021 1:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9235927)
This was in bars as I recall. The alternative, and what they should have done IMHO, was keep bars closed, at least for indoor service (make do with outdoor "beer gardens"). The bit about TV was to prevent crowds in sports bars but, yes, it's a pretty stupid idea.

There's no doubt the government can keep bars closed. They've always required a government license to operate. Just suspend all on-premises liquor licences.

And they decimated the bar and pub industry in the process.

Yuri Apr 2, 2021 1:07 AM

Things in Brazil are desperate as you might know if you’re following the news. Today we broke 3,000 deaths by the 7-day average.

The brightside is more than 1 million doses were administered today and 18.5 million Brazilians got at least 1 dose while over 5 million got both. Let’s see how long it takes for infections and deaths to recede.

Meanwhile, São Paulo’s bars and restaurants are on their knees. It makes me depressed, not sure how long it will take for the city to recover.

xzmattzx Apr 2, 2021 2:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9235920)
COVID isn't over. Any discussion about removing mandates is premature. As long as the pandemic exists, I think stores and other indoor places should have two choices: People entering wear masks of show proof of immunity (either vaccination or antibodies from having had COVID and recovered). Obviously, just requiring a mask is the easiest approach. The alternative is to keep indoor commercial activity closed entirely and few people want to keep doing that.

The mandate is not pointless nor "just politics" because right now there's no way to separate the various categories of individuals: Vaccinated, naturally immune, not immune and potentially infected. The easiest approach by far is just asking everybody to wear a mask. And I don't much care about people not liking to be told what to do. I am of the generation that was still subject to a draft and we were told to go die in Vietnam. It's all relative. I do NOT feel your pain.

But does the pandemic exist if the nation achieves herd immunity?

pip Apr 2, 2021 4:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9236145)
30% of Americans, which means 40% of adults, have now gotten at least one dose of vaccine. Studies suggest about 30% of the population has had COVID, whether or not symptomatic. That means around 60% of the adult population (half the total population) should have some degree of immunity.

Todays WSJ reported what one would assume. New cases are concentrated among the unvaccinated: Those between 18 and 34. While these people usually don't end up in ICUs on ventilators, they can get sick enough to require hospitalization and hospitalizations are rising. The presumption is that the increase in infection rates in this group is a combination of the fact that they disproportionately work in jobs involving direct public contact and they disproportionately socialize in groups (as well as the fact that so many of them feel invulnerable and so have abandoned precautions).

Anyway, we should be approaching the point where we can see a "herd immunity" effect, if only in the muting of any new surge. After all, the virus has only half the population to work on.

That assumes that the population of people that have gotten the vaccine have not had COVID.

Pedestrian Apr 2, 2021 7:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xzmattzx (Post 9236336)
But does the pandemic exist if the nation achieves herd immunity?

If we achieve herd immunity meaning only sporadic cases, then no--the pandemic doesn't exist. It's over.

But remember that herd immunity is not a bright line--it's a thing you gradually sneak up on and what I'm waiting for is to see some definite indications we are approaching it.

Pedestrian Apr 2, 2021 7:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip (Post 9236431)
That assumes that the population of people that have gotten the vaccine have not had COVID.

No, it doesn't.

If 30% of people have had COVID, I only subtracted 30% of the unvaccinated from the total, not 30% of the total population. Check the math.

If 40% of adults have been vaccinated, that leaves 60% unvaccinated. If 30% of the overall population have had COVID, I did NOT add that 30% to the 40% vaccinated to get 70% immune. I took (approximately) 30% of the unvaccinated 60% or 20% and added that to the 40% to get 60% immune.

This is OF COURSE a rough approximation and certainly the percentage who have had COVID is just a guess but 30% is a guess I've read from sources that seem reasonable.

Pedestrian Apr 2, 2021 7:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yuriandrade (Post 9236280)
Things in Brazil are desperate as you might know if you’re following the news. Today we broke 3,000 deaths by the 7-day average.

The brightside is more than 1 million doses were administered today and 18.5 million Brazilians got at least 1 dose while over 5 million got both. Let’s see how long it takes for infections and deaths to recede.

Meanwhile, São Paulo’s bars and restaurants are on their knees. It makes me depressed, not sure how long it will take for the city to recover.

Brazil is still too far from having vaccinated a significant percentage to see any effects. According to Bloomberg it is vaccinating 750,000 people per day (average over last 7 days) but their figures show 23.6 million shots already given (8.8% of the population with 1 or more doses). If they have reached 1 million doses in one day now and can keep that up, it's very good news.

But the horror seems so shocking and Bolsonaro's attitude seems so unsympathetic that an outsider wonders how he remains in office.

Jair Bolsonaro tells Brazilians to stop 'whining' about Covid

I know we aren't supposed to talk politics here but one wonders what the recent military shake-up is really all about.

Brazil: calls grow for removal of 'coup-mongering' Bolsonaro as crisis builds

Pedestrian Apr 2, 2021 7:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 9236276)
And they decimated the bar and pub industry in the process.

I'm actually not worried about the industry (as opposed to individual employees in the industry).

I actually hope that in San Francisco a lot of deadwood--places that have seen better days or were living off past glories--will be cleared out and we'll see a renaissance of new, more interesting places (that will hopefully rehire a lot of the workers).

Even here in exurban Arizona, that never really locked down but did ban indoor dining for a while and has now reopened it, I noticed today lots of "help wanted" signs in the windows. It really was striking--just about every place that serves food had one in the window.

Yuri Apr 2, 2021 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9236486)
Brazil is still too far from having vaccinated a significant percentage to see any effects. According to Bloomberg it is vaccinating 750,000 people per day (average over last 7 days) but their figures show 23.6 million shots already given (8.8% of the population with 1 or more doses). If they have reached 1 million doses in one day now and can keep that up, it's very good news.

But the horror seems so shocking and Bolsonaro's attitude seems so unsympathetic that an outsider wonders how he remains in office.

Jair Bolsonaro tells Brazilians to stop 'whining' about Covid

I know we aren't supposed to talk politics here but one wonders what the recent military shake-up is really all about.

Brazil: calls grow for removal of 'coup-mongering' Bolsonaro as crisis builds

Under normal circumstances, Brazil has the ability to vaccinate up to 4 million people a day thanks to its very comprehensive universal healthcare system. It had, on several occasions, vaccinated 10 million people in one single day.

The problem is the lack of vaccines, and as you mentioned that’s up to Bolsonaro that actively and publicly sabotaged every effort to get them last year.

Tens of thousands of deaths, specially on the second wave, could have been easily prevented. There are no words to describe the nightmare the Brazil is into it.

jtown,man Apr 2, 2021 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9236488)
I'm actually not worried about the industry (as opposed to individual employees in the industry).

I actually hope that in San Francisco a lot of deadwood--places that have seen better days or were living off past glories--will be cleared out and we'll see a renaissance of new, more interesting places (that will hopefully rehire a lot of the workers).

Even here in exurban Arizona, that never really locked down but did ban indoor dining for a while and has now reopened it, I noticed today lots of "help wanted" signs in the windows. It really was striking--just about every place that serves food had one in the window.

That's a very cold way of looking at the situation. Many restaurant and bar owners have sunk their life savings into their businesses. Some also have no other skill. So they lose their business they lose their homes, their retirements, and have no good job to turn to. Life-shattering in so many ways. Repeat that thousands of times and I don't think a "renaissance" of new hip restaurants means much in comparison.


And regarding the help wanted sign, its obvious what is happening. Low-income people are staying on unemployment because its paying well and it keeps getting extended. Once the government decides to cut people off, those jobs will be filled.

CaliNative Apr 2, 2021 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9236484)
No, it doesn't.

If 30% of people have had COVID, I only subtracted 30% of the unvaccinated from the total, not 30% of the total population. Check the math.

If 40% of adults have been vaccinated, that leaves 60% unvaccinated. If 30% of the overall population have had COVID, I did NOT add that 30% to the 40% vaccinated to get 70% immune. I took (approximately) 30% of the unvaccinated 60% or 20% and added that to the 40% to get 60% immune.

This is OF COURSE a rough approximation and certainly the percentage who have had COVID is just a guess but 30% is a guess I've read from sources that seem reasonable.

The concern of course is that as the virus mutates the "herd immunity" and individual immunity gets reduced. Does this mean an annual booster covid shot just lke a flu shot? Possibly. I do plan to keep wearing a good mask in indoor public spaces. Better safe than sorry. Hopefully real N95 masks will become easily available intead of cheap knockoffs that don't work. 3M and others have been very slow in cranking out enough N95s to meet demand. The health community gobbles them up and throws them away after just one use.

CaliNative Apr 2, 2021 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9236510)
That's a very cold way of looking at the situation. Many restaurant and bar owners have sunk their life savings into their businesses. Some also have no other skill. So they lose their business they lose their homes, their retirements, and have no good job to turn to. Life-shattering in so many ways. Repeat that thousands of times and I don't think a "renaissance" of new hip restaurants means much in comparison.


And regarding the help wanted sign, its obvious what is happening. Low-income people are staying on unemployment because its paying well and it keeps getting extended. Once the government decides to cut people off, those jobs will be filled.

Even more "life shattering" is going into a crowded bar (or cruise ship etc.) and getting infected with covid. The world is a different place than pre 2020. Sad but true. Hopefully the virus will be defeated, but it keeps mutating so we have to be careful. Potentially a mutant strain could develop that impacts younger people more severely just like the 1918 flu did. The young have to change their behaviors. These "spring break" wild parties are endangering everyone. Colleges should end spring break until covid is defeated.

10023 Apr 2, 2021 1:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliNative (Post 9236520)
Even more "life shattering" is going into a crowded bar (or cruise ship etc.) and getting infected with covid. The world is a different place than pre 2020. Sad but true. Hopefully the virus will be defeated, but it keeps mutating so we have to be careful. Potentially a mutant strain could develop that impacts younger people more severely just like the 1918 flu did. The young have to change their behaviors. These "spring break" wild parties are endangering everyone. Colleges should end spring break until covid is defeated.

Life shattering for whom? Not the young, who generally shake off Covid quickly if they have symptoms at all. Unvaccinated old or otherwise vulnerable people shouldn’t be going to bars.

When the elderly are vaccinated, then Covid is as “defeated” as it ever will be. Deaths are still plummeting even as cases tick up slightly. It will never be eliminated and some people will continue to die from it every year, as with flu.

the urban politician Apr 2, 2021 2:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliNative (Post 9236520)
Even more "life shattering" is going into a crowded bar (or cruise ship etc.) and getting infected with covid.

....Said nobody like, ever......

Or, to reiterate: young people going to a bar and getting COVID are not experiencing a "life shattering" event. You're talking about mortality rates in the fractions of a percent.

Now, if you're an elderly person or a person with a lot of major health problems, you haven't been vaccinated, and you enter a crowded bar and get Covid....well, that's your fault.

pip Apr 2, 2021 3:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9236484)
No, it doesn't.

If 30% of people have had COVID, I only subtracted 30% of the unvaccinated from the total, not 30% of the total population. Check the math.

If 40% of adults have been vaccinated, that leaves 60% unvaccinated. If 30% of the overall population have had COVID, I did NOT add that 30% to the 40% vaccinated to get 70% immune. I took (approximately) 30% of the unvaccinated 60% or 20% and added that to the 40% to get 60% immune.

This is OF COURSE a rough approximation and certainly the percentage who have had COVID is just a guess but 30% is a guess I've read from sources that seem reasonable.

yeah COVID works like that.......

sopas ej Apr 2, 2021 3:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9236488)
I'm actually not worried about the industry (as opposed to individual employees in the industry).

I actually hope that in San Francisco a lot of deadwood--places that have seen better days or were living off past glories--will be cleared out and we'll see a renaissance of new, more interesting places (that will hopefully rehire a lot of the workers).

I agree. The industry was not "decimated." Anecdotally, I've seen that as things have been starting to open up again, many of the restaurants that were temporarily closed are now open again for business. Totally new restaurants and bars have opened up as well. I felt more sorry for the workers who were laid off. Even before the pandemic, brand new mom and pop restaurants often failed within 2 or 3 years. People who start businesses either have a lot of money to begin with and/or really good credit. If they go out of business, it's a tax write-off for them. This is why I feel more sorry for employees who work for other people (and can lose their jobs at the drop of a hat) than for business owners.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9236488)
Even here in exurban Arizona, that never really locked down but did ban indoor dining for a while and has now reopened it, I noticed today lots of "help wanted" signs in the windows. It really was striking--just about every place that serves food had one in the window.

You see that where I live too, and it's obvious what's happened; when these restaurants switched to take out/delivery only, they laid off some staff. I know that some restaurant owners told those employees that they would rehire them once they're allowed to do dine-in again. But, many of those laid off employees found other jobs in the meantime, so those restaurants that have opened up again now have to hire/train new staff.

Pedestrian Apr 2, 2021 6:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 9236510)
That's a very cold way of looking at the situation. Many restaurant and bar owners have sunk their life savings into their businesses. Some also have no other skill. So they lose their business they lose their homes, their retirements, and have no good job to turn to. Life-shattering in so many ways. Repeat that thousands of times and I don't think a "renaissance" of new hip restaurants means much in comparison.

And regarding the help wanted sign, its obvious what is happening. Low-income people are staying on unemployment because its paying well and it keeps getting extended. Once the government decides to cut people off, those jobs will be filled.

Many of the new places have the same owners as the old places. It's just a "freshening" of format. As for the "life savings" of the owners of failed places, the restaurant industry has one of there highest turnover/failure rates of any industry. It goes with the territory. And somebody who simply closes up shop right now may not lose as much as you think--they often can get out of future lease payments due to rent relief and other obligations they normally might have. I'm not crying for them.

Meanwhile, as far as those poor folks who won't worK:

Quote:

U.S. Added 916,000 Jobs in March as Hiring Accelerated
By Eric Morath
Updated April 2, 2021 12:56 pm ET

U.S. hiring surged in March as the economic recovery accelerated, the start of what economists say could be a sustained run of job growth to industries, regions and workers hardest hit during the pandemic.

U.S. employers added a seasonally adjusted 916,000 jobs in March, the best gain since August, the Labor Department said Friday, and the unemployment rate, determined by a separate survey, fell to 6.0%, a pandemic low. Still, as of March, there are 8.4 million fewer jobs than in February 2020 before the pandemic hit.

Economists expect the U.S. to add an average of 514,000 jobs a month over the next year, but payrolls would remain below prepandemic levels into 2022.

The jobs rebound is gaining renewed momentum as more people are vaccinated against Covid-19, states lift restrictions on business activity, and consumers grow more comfortable dining, shopping and traveling outside their homes.

“There’s a seismic shift going on in the U.S. economy,” said Beth Ann Bovino, a Ph.D. economist at S&P Global. The confluence of additional federal stimulus, growing consumer confidence and the feeling that the pandemic is close to abating—despite rising infections in recent weeks—is propelling economic growth and hiring, she said.

Other recent data shows restaurant, hotel and airlines bookings are up and consumers are spending more at gyms, salons and spas in recent weeks than they have in more than a year. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic demand and is an important element of the recovery.

“Fear is subsiding, and American households are sitting on a lot of cash” from stimulus checks and savings from reduced spending on vacations, commuting and child care, said Dr. Bovino. “That’s going to support spending, especially in the services sector.”

Friday’s report showed hiring rose in most industries, led by a gain of 280,000 in the category that includes restaurants and hotels. Employment also rose sharply in construction, most manufacturing sectors and public and private schools. Temporary help and auto manufacturing, where a semiconductor shortage has idled assembly plants, were weak spots.

Nearly two million fewer Americans reported last month they were unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic and 500,000 less said they couldn’t seek work due to the pandemic. The share of employees who worked remotely due to the coronavirus also declined last month, the Labor Department said . . . .
https://www.wsj.com/articles/march-j...21-11617314225

6% unemployment would have been considered decent in times past. Once we though 5% unemployment was "full employment" until we achieved much lower levels.

Pedestrian Apr 2, 2021 7:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliNative (Post 9236516)
The concern of course is that as the virus mutates the "herd immunity" and individual immunity gets reduced. Does this mean an annual booster covid shot just lke a flu shot? Possibly. I do plan to keep wearing a good mask in indoor public spaces. Better safe than sorry. Hopefully real N95 masks will become easily available intead of cheap knockoffs that don't work. 3M and others have been very slow in cranking out enough N95s to meet demand. The health community gobbles them up and throws them away after just one use.

As you may know, this pandemic has triggered a new era in "mask research":

Quote:

High-Tech Face Masks Aim to Step Up the Fight Against Covid-19
By Suzanne Oliver
March 27, 2021 8:00 am ET

The face mask is getting a high-tech upgrade.

Models now in testing do more than provide a physical barrier between the wearer and potential viruses. Materials scientists, chemists, biologists and engineers have created working prototypes of masks that include diagnostics, sensors and even the ability to kill viruses.

In the near future, if you’re on a plane and the person next to you sneezes, you could be wearing a mask that sterilizes the air before you breathe it in.

Some of these new masks are designed for healthcare workers, while others will be marketed to both healthcare workers and consumers. Masks and respirators marketed as medical devices or as worker protection must be approved for sale by the Food and Drug Administration or the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, or Niosh. (Respirators are masks that provide a tight seal to the face, such as the N95, and must be appropriately fit to provide their ideal protection.)

“I am excited by the attention being paid to masks,” says Christopher Sulmonte, project administrator for the biocontainment unit at Johns Hopkins Medicine. The new ideas “have some scientific rigor to them,” he says. “Once we see how they function, we will start to see which tools make the most sense” . . . .

While [researchers] applaud greater reusability and the addition of diagnostics and sensors in masks, [they are] skeptical about one innovation: antimicrobial coatings. Better . . . is simply to wear a tight-fitting N95 mask.

“If you have a coating on your mask and a gap around your nose or mouth, the virus particles are going to get in that way,” says Prof. Rule, who is also a member of the Technical Advisory Group on Personal Protective Equipment at the World Health Organization. “The aerosol droplets take the path of least resistance,” she says. “And the antimicrobial coatings may lead to additional antimicrobial resistance in the environment.”

Here’s a look at some of the masks in development.

A smart, long-lasting N95 respirator

Because of mask shortages, healthcare workers have been wearing masks for longer than is recommended, and reusing masks degraded by sterilizations with steam, hydrogen peroxide vapor and ultraviolet light. Over time, the sterilization degrades mask filtration and fit, and workers become less protected.

A new type of mask soon to be submitted for evaluation by Niosh remains effective for longer than many masks now being used because it stands up better to multiple sterilizations, including using such aggressive methods as boiling, but also sterilization by heat, UV treatment and isopropyl alcohol.

These transparent, silicon-rubber masks, which feature pop-out, disposable N95 filters, are the work of a team led by Giovanni Traverso, assistant professor of mechanical engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a gastroenterologist at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School. The masks have sensors that give feedback on fit and functionality. A heat-sensitive coating on the perimeter of the mask indicates a fit to the skin by changing color from black to pink. In testing at Brigham and Women’s and at Massachusetts General Hospital, all wearers achieved a proper, protective fit, and only 5% said they preferred the standard, N95 hospital-supplied mask. Users said they also appreciated that the mask’s transparency enabled them to communicate better through reading lips and facial expressions.

The team’s research was published in ACS Pharmacology and Translational Science in November.

Jason Troutner, president of Teal Bio, which plans to manufacture the respirators in the U.S., says that he anticipates the product will be available to purchase this year at a price that is competitive with disposable N95s.

Virus-killing masks

Current masks function as barriers to virus particles. Michael Strano, a professor of chemical engineering at MIT, is developing a mask designed to actually kill virus. “Filtering has its place, but so does just destroying the virus,” says Prof. Strano.

The mask design incorporates a copper mesh heated to about 160 degrees that traps and deactivates the virus. Neoprene insulation and a thermoelectric cooler will ensure the inhaled air is comfortable to breathe. “You actually breathe medically sterile air,” says Prof. Strano.

The mask, which also kills bacteria and mold, can be run on a 9-volt battery. Prof. Strano and his team are still building and testing mask prototypes, and their current research has been accepted for publication by AIChE Journal, a chemical-engineering publication.

Prof. Strano expects each reusable mask to weigh about a half-pound, to cost just a few dollars and, if approved by regulators, to be available in two models—a slightly larger version for use by healthcare personnel and first responders, and a smaller version for the consumer market.

A mask from U.K.-based Medi-Immune Ltd. takes a different approach to killing virus. It uses UVC light to sterilize air that is drawn into a small chamber that can be worn on a belt or in a backpack. A hose from the chamber goes to the mask, and a fan maintains positive pressure in the mask to ensure any possible leakage is outward. Exhaled air passes through filters on the sides of the mask.

In animal tests performed by Public Health England in 2017, the mask was as effective as a vaccine in preventing influenza, says Nigel Silman, visiting chair of infectious diseases at the University of the West of England who was involved with the research.

U.K.-based Mackwell Health, which has partnered with Medi-Immune to make the device, is currently seeking device certification from the British Standards Institute and plans to seek Niosh approval in the U.S. The rechargeable, battery-powered mask is expected to cost near $500, and will be marketed to healthcare workers.

Diagnostic masks

Masks collect evidence of infection in each wearer’s exhalations, so, why not use them to test for Covid-19?

Researchers at Harvard University’s Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering have figured out how to integrate a freeze-dried diagnostic Covid-19 test into a face mask. The test reacts with exhaled particles and gives a diagnosis in 90 minutes or less.

The tests and a tiny blister pack of water can be mounted on any mask. After the mask has been worn for at least 30 minutes, a person punctures the blister pack to release the water needed to rehydrate and run the reactions. The test result is indicated by one or two lines, similar to a pregnancy test.

“Think of our diagnostic reactions as ramen soup,” says Peter Nguyen, a Wyss Institute research scientist and co-first author on the research. “We have taken these diagnostic assays and, keeping with our analogy, separated the water from the noodles. We just mix them back together when you want those reactions to occur.”

The researchers tested their technology by putting their masks on a breathing simulator that exhaled a snippet of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in aerosols similar to those generated by humans. The researchers found that their test performed as well as FDA-approved Covid-19 RT-PCR tests. “We can match the current technology for detecting the virus,” says Dr. Nguyen, who has a Ph.D. in biochemistry. The paper detailing their research is currently being reviewed for publication. The mask is subject to FDA approval.

The Wyss team, led by James J. Collins, core faculty member of the Wyss Institute, Termeer professor of medical engineering and science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and a member of the Harvard-MIT Health Sciences & Technology faculty, expects the product to cost about $5. The technology can be targeted to identify other viruses and variants as well.

A team led by Jesse Jokerst, an associate professor of nano-engineering at the University of California, San Diego, is also working on a mask-mounted Covid-19 test. This test is contained in a sticker that can be applied to any mask. Unlike the Wyss Institute test, which identifies SARS-CoV-2 RNA, the UC San Diego test identifies the presence of a protease produced in the body during a Covid-19 infection.

Prof. Jokerst and his team, whose work is part of the National Institutes of Health’s Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics Program to address gaps in Covid-19 testing and surveillance, have tested their technology with human saliva samples and are preparing to test in humans.

The professor believes the cost of the sticker will be just a few cents each.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-te...6846402?page=1

By the way, I doubt you'll have to get a new vaccine every year. The key antigen on the SARS-CoV-2 virus is the spike protein and only mutations on that protein matter and not even all of them. As we've already seen, the current vaccines still work quite well against viruses with one or more mutations. Ongoing research is likely to find relatively stable segments of RNA coding for portions of the spike protein against which antibodies can be made that will avoid random mutations of the virus.

Pedestrian Apr 2, 2021 7:17 PM

3 million/day!! That's almost 1% of the US population per day (it's more than 1% of adults) or, assuming a 2-shot vaccine, ½% fully vaccinated per day.

https://uniim1.shutterfly.com/ng/ser...391092/enhance
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

By the way--I'm always impressed by Chile. They are among the global standouts but especially in Latin America. According to The NY Times they are using a combination of the Pfizer vaccine and China's Coronavac. Trials in Brazil showed this Chinese vaccine to be "50.4% effective at preventing symptomatic infections, 78% effective in preventing mild cases needing treatment, and 100% effective in preventing severe cases." [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CoronaVac]

CaliNative Apr 2, 2021 7:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9236902)
As you may know, this pandemic has triggered a new era in "mask research":


https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-te...6846402?page=1

By the way, I doubt you'll have to get a new vaccine every year. The key antigen on the SARS-CoV-2 virus is the spike protein and only mutations on that protein matter and not even all of them. As we've already seen, the current vaccines still work quite well against viruses with one or more mutations. Ongoing research is likely to find relatively stable segments of RNA coding for portions of the spike protein against which antibodies can be made that will avoid random mutations of the virus.

Good summary. I had read that mask upgrades were coming, but not in this detail. Hopefully enough will be made that everyone who is vulnerable can get them, not just medical people.

JManc Apr 2, 2021 7:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliNative (Post 9236520)
Even more "life shattering" is going into a crowded bar (or cruise ship etc.) and getting infected with covid. The world is a different place than pre 2020. Sad but true. Hopefully the virus will be defeated, but it keeps mutating so we have to be careful. Potentially a mutant strain could develop that impacts younger people more severely just like the 1918 flu did. The young have to change their behaviors. These "spring break" wild parties are endangering everyone. Colleges should end spring break until covid is defeated.

That's not grounded in reality. Yes, right now, we're dealing with a pandemic and should act accordingly but unrealistic to expect social creatures (people) to stop being social indefinitely especially those in their late teens/ early 20's (prime social years).

We are going to return to the way things were (gradually) and not a whole lot there is to do about it...mutations or not. Those who are still paranoid or most at risk will still have the option not too be exposed to crowds but the rest of us are beyond ready to start living again.

CaliNative Apr 2, 2021 7:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9236902)
As you may know, this pandemic has triggered a new era in "mask research":


https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-te...6846402?page=1

By the way, I doubt you'll have to get a new vaccine every year. The key antigen on the SARS-CoV-2 virus is the spike protein and only mutations on that protein matter and not even all of them. As we've already seen, the current vaccines still work quite well against viruses with one or more mutations. Ongoing research is likely to find relatively stable segments of RNA coding for portions of the spike protein against which antibodies can be made that will avoid random mutations of the virus.

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 9236638)
....Said nobody like, ever......

Or, to reiterate: young people going to a bar and getting COVID are not experiencing a "life shattering" event. You're talking about mortality rates in the fractions of a percent.

Now, if you're an elderly person or a person with a lot of major health problems, you haven't been vaccinated, and you enter a crowded bar and get Covid....well, that's your fault.

Are you opposed to these mass gatherings of young people without masks that we have seen on the news in places like Miami Beach?

CaliNative Apr 2, 2021 8:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 9236954)
That's not grounded in reality. Yes, right now, we're dealing with a pandemic and should act accordingly but unrealistic to expect social creatures (people) to stop being social indefinitely especially those in their late teens/ early 20's (prime social years).

We are going to return to the way things were (gradually) and not a whole lot there is to do about it...mutations or not. Those who are still paranoid or most at risk will still have the option not too be exposed to crowds but the rest of us are beyond ready to start living again.

At some point the virus could mutate to a form more hurtful to young people. The 1918 flu was very harmful to younger people vulnerable to "cytokine storms". Plus the long term impacts of covid are still unknown. Some young people have shown long term impacts already like "brain fog" and other problems. Not just an old person's disease. I think people want the young to behave more responsibly. Go have fun, but at least wear masks and avoid big crowds, and get vaccinated. Is that asking too much?

the urban politician Apr 2, 2021 8:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliNative (Post 9236955)
Are you opposed to these mass gatherings of young people without masks that we have seen on the news in places like Miami Beach?

^ Yes, I am (opposed to them).

But for different reasons than you are.

Those young people aren't really in danger of anything, hence it's not a "life-shattering event" as you put it.

But they will continue to spread virus around, in a time when we are still FAR from herd immunity from the vaccine. That is why I think it's a problem.

Knowing WHY something is a problem is the most important thing. That is how you effectively deal with a pandemic without shutting people out of their lives needlessly.

10023 Apr 2, 2021 8:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 9236488)
I'm actually not worried about the industry (as opposed to individual employees in the industry).

I actually hope that in San Francisco a lot of deadwood--places that have seen better days or were living off past glories--will be cleared out and we'll see a renaissance of new, more interesting places (that will hopefully rehire a lot of the workers).

Even here in exurban Arizona, that never really locked down but did ban indoor dining for a while and has now reopened it, I noticed today lots of "help wanted" signs in the windows. It really was striking--just about every place that serves food had one in the window.

The problem is that a lot of independent owners will be wiped out financially, and landlords will replace them with the easiest alternatives with the strongest covenants. In order words, chain restaurants.

Pedestrian Apr 2, 2021 8:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliNative (Post 9236960)
At some point the virus could mutate to a form more hurtful to young people. The 1918 flu was very harmful to younger people vulnerable to "cytokine storms". Plus the long term impacts of covid are still unknown. Some young people have shown long term impacts already like "brain fog" and other problems. Not just an old person's disease. I think people want the young to behave more responsibly. Go have fun, but at least wear masks and avoid big crowds, and get vaccinated. Is that asking too much?

This is not speculation. It's already fact.

Quote:

Younger Brazilians Are Dying From Covid in an Alarming New Shift
By Martha Viotti Beck , Julia Leite , and Caroline Aragaki
March 26, 2021, 2:56 PM MST

Staggering under its worst period of the pandemic, with daily records of caseloads and deaths, Brazil is facing a daunting development: a rising number of deaths among the young.

So far this month, according to government data, about 2,030 Brazilians aged 30 to 39 have died from Covid, more than double the number recorded in January. Among those in their 40s, there have been 4,150 fatalities in March, up from 1,823 in January, and for those 20-29, deaths jumped to 505 from 242.

. . . cases among those aged 30 to 59 had surged from the start of the year until mid-March at a pace nearly double the national average of 316%. Those age groups saw deaths jump by at least 317%, compared with 223% for Brazil as a whole.

In Sao Paulo, the country’s richest and most populous state, the rise is especially prominent in private hospitals, state Health Secretary Jean Gorinchteyn said in an interview. Those 60 and older continue to dominate hospital admissions but the share of those under 50 has risen to 15% from 10% last year.

In the state’s capital, more and more people between 20 and 54 are getting infected, the city’s health secretary, Edson Aparecido, told GloboNews TV on Friday. Younger patients wait longer to seek health care and are sicker when they arrive . . . .

The explanation for the growing infection rate among the young -- in a country that is largely young -- remains unclear although officials and medical experts suggest several possibilities. First, throughout 2020, local and regional restrictions hampered socializing. That changed with the holidays, the new year and the loosening of lockdowns.

Second, a variant first spotted in the Amazonian city of Manaus is probably partly to blame, according to Jaques Sztajnbok, who helps run the ICU at Emílio Ribas hospital, one of Brazil’s main facilities for infectious diseases. Patients are largely getting sick with that variant or the U.K. one, which is also more contagious. A study carried out in Sao Paulo found one of the two variants in 71% of cases.

Third, vaccines are limited in Brazil and there is no time line for inoculating the young.

Fernando Brum, a director at Sorocaba’s Santa Casa hospital, said the mutation of the virus into a much more contagious version with a viral load that makes people sick in a faster and more aggressive way has meant young people have gone from mostly asymptomatic cases to being gravely affected.

Brum, whose hospital is a two-hour drive from Sao Paulo, says ICUs are also filled with 30-year-olds. He estimates that the age of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 has decreased by 50% compared with 2020.

“The intensive care unit is constantly and uninterruptedly occupied,” he said. Patients in their 30s make up at least half of those beds, and their average time spent in the hospital has tripled from last year. It has come down recently for a a grim reason -- patients are dying more quickly.

Sztajnbok said it’s not unusual now to see people under 40 or even in their 20s without any risk factors needing intubation and life support. Before, he said, patients were mostly over 65. “The first time that happened, we were shocked,” he said. “We were also shocked the second time. Now we are not anymore” . . . .
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ming-new-shift

10023 Apr 2, 2021 8:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliNative (Post 9236960)
At some point the virus could mutate to a form more hurtful to young people. The 1918 flu was very harmful to younger people vulnerable to "cytokine storms". Plus the long term impacts of covid are still unknown. Some young people have shown long term impacts already like "brain fog" and other problems. Not just an old person's disease. I think people want the young to behave more responsibly. Go have fun, but at least wear masks and avoid big crowds, and get vaccinated. Is that asking too much?

At some point the planet could be a destroyed by an asteroid. If you want to be a hyperbolic hypochondriac suit yourself, but don’t expect others to be as fearful.

For almost all young, healthy people Covid is no big deal. Even complaining about a few days of bad flu symptoms is just millennial whining.

I’ve been taking no precautions beyond the required (masks in shops and the gym, etc), but I was careful around my mother, who is the only person over 60 that I come into direct contact with as long as we are remote for work. And I’ve always washed my hands a lot - I didn’t realise that was so uncommon.

I really need to get an antibody test. I suspect that I had Covid early on (pre-“pandemic”) but there was no testing then. I’m curious whether I’ve picked it up again since I’ve been in Florida.


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