It’s not almost as if they had the opposite effect. They had the opposite effect. Lockdowns merely prolonged the inevitable, as I predicted last spring.

Look at places like Italy and France that had the strictest, earliest lockdowns in the West and now are locking down again.

The unpleasant truth is that, aside from enough suppression to keep the hospitals functioning (which, let’s not forget, was the original justification for lockdowns), this thing just needed to work its way through the population, a small percentage of which were going to die (either the very old or the very unlucky).

You can argue it's more than "pandemic fatigue". As I calculated a few pages back now (and it's not entirely my own calculation--"experts" have made similar ones), nationally it seems like maybe 40% of the population is still vulnerable but in places where the first wave was light or kept well under control, that could easily be 50% of more simply because there are fewer recovered cases with natural immunity.

Even if the new wave is limited to only half the population, with the more virulent/contagious strains (as you said), that could be a lot of people sick at one time. And we do seem to be seeing something that suggests this is what's happening: The demographics of the current "wave" is different with mostly the under 50s who haven't yet been eligible for vaccination (and some oldsters who remain unvaccinated).

No place in Europe has yet vaccinated enough people to make a noticeable difference. Instead, look at Israel which had a serious problem last spring/summer and now doesn't because it is really there only country that has vaccinated most of the population.

Locking down did not have the "opposite effect" and was not "pointless", merely inconvenient for YOU.

What it has clearly accomplished is to give time for some effective meds to be developed (the egregiously underused monoclonal antibody cocktails) and vaccines. As the "experts" keep telling us, it is now a race as to whether we can vaccinate enough people to blunt any new wave and emerge with lots of people (hopefully ME) who never got it and never will.

In the current European surge, the death rates are lower not only because the sick are younger but because we know better how to treat it and have the better meds. If we had faced the current variants last Spring it could have been much worse than it was and, because of what science has given us in the interval, much worse than we are likely to see now.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-co...nce-june-2020/

https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/04/...content=manual

I admit to being a little relieved by this. Yes, I realize that the "issues" other countries have had with the vaccine are pretty insignificant on a statistical level, but still, if we don't need it let's stick with the vaccines that haven't had those issues.

Now what to do about the Astrazeneca vaccine we have or have contracted to buy. We should and probably will donate it to other countries but there could be blow-back over this. I expect complaints that we are dumping our rejects on the poorer countries. Well, offer it to them on a take or leave it basis.

For the "It Ain't Over 'till It's Over" file (and keep your masks on):

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...calculator-to/

They have now reintroduced a 4-week "lockdown" to try to step the tide (though, of course, certain participants here will argue it's unnecessary and pointless).

I get that much of the population isn't vaccinated and covid is still spreading but I don't think those who are vaccinated should still be holed up in their houses.

The stuff about the health care system being strained is somewhat misleading and partly based on speculation about future demand. Right now they're around 400 in ICU out of a population of 14.5 million. Total provincial ICU capacity is in the 2,000 range, with most beds being used by non-covid patients. The net impact of reducing non-covid ICU capacity is unclear.

Ontario publicized plans to add 500 new ICU beds to its capacity at one point, more than they have seen in demand due to covid (with each covid-positive person being considered a net new ICU bed used, an upper bound). Over time we have heard more and more talk about how just about any ICU bed utilization due to covid puts a strain on the system. We hear it here in BC and we're at 79 in ICU out of a population of 5 million.

Ontario produced some hockey stick style models based on assumptions of increased R values of variants but it's unclear how accurate those will be as predictions. The old predictions have not been accurate.

Just over 15% of people in Ontario have received at least one dose of vaccine so far. The highest risk (e.g. care home residents) have generally been first to get vaccinated, so future hospitalization rates due to new infections are likely to be lower. Death rates have already dropped. Our death rate in Canada these days is about 1/6 of what it was at the peak last May.

And when is it fucking over?

There has to be a level of acceptable deaths, and looking at the stats these days in the US, we are there.

Old people die. It’s what they do.

I would assume herd immunity. I do see many normalizing masks as part of the 'new normal' and how we all should embrace it (fuck that) and lockdown until every single strain is identified and under control (not going to happen). Still, we're not anywhere close to herd immunity and shouldn't derail things until we get there. Old people don't 'die' and many actually get older. My 70-something parents have plenty of miles left in them.

How do we know that there will be herd immunity or covid will go to 0? Many people may elect not to be vaccinated, there could be some immune escape, etc. My guess is we'll see outbreaks for years to come, but the spread and consequences will be much smaller.

I think the public health aspect of this will end when everybody has had the option to get vaccinated. At that point we should move to a regime based on personal choice. If people don't want to get vaccinated and would rather risk covid that's their choice. If they have unusual health requirements they are better dealt with individually rather than locking down all of society. In fact the proper functioning of society is what allows us to have the wealth to have elaborate health care services. I doubt that the current situation is sustainable.

That's what I always thought it was going to be, and I figure it will go by county since that's how they have been doing things (at least in CA). Maybe localities hit hard by future season flu outbreaks will adjust, and I bet workplaces are gonna be tougher with people who are sick. It hurts productivity anyway coming into work and coughing up a storm...everybody in the office gets sick.

Increasingly they aren't. I'm not. I now do my own grocery shopping and other shopping in uncrowded stores, I go out to eat outdoors, I do pretty much everything I've ever done outdoors. But I wear a mask indoors (in stores etc) always.

It will be like measles, mumps and polio: The diseases will still exist but there won't be a steady stream of cases, only sporadic outbreaks of a size that allows rigorous contact tracing and isolation of the infected.

It will be somewhat like what we are seeing in places like South Korea or New Zealand but a better example is Israel, a place that had a severe epidemic and has brought it under increasing control by vaccinating the majority of the population (in spite of resistance in the Orthodox community) although even there the job isn't finished--they are approaching herd immunity but haven't yet reached it (though as I keep saying, it's a thing with a gradual slope, not a sudden demarcation):

https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-co...nce-june-2020/

That reproduction number of .61 is critical. That means every case spreads it to .61 other people. In other words, over time there should be fewer and fewer cases, eventually getting to or near zero except for the occasional imported case or other exceptional incident.

When there are zero regularly occurring cases, then even the unvaccinated will be pretty safe as they are in New Zealand. But as we repeatedly see with measles (a much more infectious virus even than coronavirus), occasional cases pop up from travelers and others and the only way to keep the virus suppressed aside from rigorous contact tracing and quarantine in getting the highest possible percentage of the population vaccinated.

If we take your position that it's simply a matter of personal choice, it's quite likely we will never entirely suppress regular cases meaning people who, for one reason or another can't be vaccinated will remain at risk. That's the point of "herd immunity"--to protect even the "can't be vaccinated". In free democratic societies we will never force people to be vaccinated but we can certain apply tough incentives as we do with children who are not allowed to attend public schools without their "shots" or travelers to places where cholera or Yellow Fever have been endemic who are not allowed entry unless they can demonstrate immunization. As I've said, with COVID, at least for now, I'd go further: No entry to any indoor venues where there are crowds like concert halls, sports arenas and so on. Possibly even restaurants. According to my TV, the Washington DC baseball team was only allowing fans to attend their season opener (before it was cancelled due to an opposing player getting COVID) who can show vaccination. That's what we probably should do for a while at least.

Why are the monoclonal antibody "cocktails" underused if they are effective at treating covid if administered early enough? Are many doctors ignorant about their effectiveness, or are insurance companies reluctant to pay for them? Any at risk patient with early covid should be given them. Patients need to request them and doctors need to use them. They have lots sitting on the shelf. Like tamiflu for early covid. Monoclonals should be routinely used for people with early covid who are at risk of developing serious disease because of at risk factors (age, prexisting conditions, etc.).

Pedestrian, are reputable N95 masks now available online? On Amazon they still sell mostly Chinese masks and who knows if they are any good. Can one obtain domestic N95s from companies like 3M or Honeywell? Any advice?

I got some through my in-laws (who are physicians) who ordered from some medical supplier that I assume is reputable, but have no way to check.

Covid may be with us forever, like influenza and the common cold is. In the 3rd world, it may take years to get enough vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, so new variants may keep appearing. I read that some of the animals in India like the wild rhesus monkeys are now infected. More variants. And of couse there are bats practically everywhere who could catch it and be a source of new infections and wicked variants. What if our cats and dogs get it? If this isn't a mess it will do until a mess comes along.

we walked up to the javits convention center early this morning on the highline and my spouse got the pfizer vaccine. while it sounds like a nice, ideal walk it actually sucked eggs as it was flipping freezing with howling gale winds. we were literally the only people on the highline the whole length of it except for park workers lol. we got off in the empty hudson yards and there was a weird, errie whistling noise around the buildings from the winds.

anyway the javits was the opposite of that. i waited outside and it was quite a scene. old people, young, people of all stripes, cabs, old folks home vans all coming and going. it only took 20mins — and that included the 15min wait afterward.

Older people are like 55x more likely to die from Covid.

No, we do not have to be as careful as older people.

Basically, her rationale is:

I did such a good job and now people aren't following what I want them to do, its their fault and they are stupid lol