Worldwide Demographics
As most of statistical offices have their Census scheduled to this period, I found it would be nice to center all discussions in one place. Obviously the US will run the show here in this thread, but we can also bring stuff from elsewhere.
Anyway, I guess the big news is the collapse of US growth in this decade: Code:
2000 ---- 281,421,906 ---- 13.2% And that's everywhere: Chicago CSA shriking, after growing at double-digit rate in the 1990's (10.9%). Los Angeles CSA posed to surpass New York since the 1960's, is finding its plateau with 4.7% growth this decade. On the other hand, quite a few managed to go against the trend, most notably San Francisco MSA+San Jose MSA, reaching 9% this decade against 5% on the past or Boston MSA, jumping from 3.6% to 7% this decade. What are your thoughts, anybody wants to guess what the Census numbers will reveal? |
Elsewhere, big cities seem to do much better. The biggest surprise comes from Germany, a country with one of the worst demographics in the world, improved its economy and open the doors for immigration and its cities are under a mini-boom.
Berlin, with 11.4% growth between 2011-2019, reaching 4.5 million in its (strict) metro area. That's sunbelt kind of growth. Atlanta MSA, for instance, is at 13.9% this decade. Then we have Hamburg at 7.7%(2.7 million inh.), Munich at 10.1% (2.4 million inh.), Frankfurt at 10.6% (2 million inh.) and Leipzig for a whopping 16.3% growth (681k inh.). In Britain, London's fast growth has been for a while. 11.4% between 2001-2011 Census and 7.8% between 2011-2018, heading for another decade double-digit. That's the agglomeration we're talking about, with its 14.2 million inh. |
I don't see a reason to be putting much stock in US numbers since everything is going to shit and will no doubt be horribly inaccurate this decade. It was already bad without the pandemic with it being underfunded.
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In the West, social scientists have a horrible time predicting population growth due to so much of our population being dependent upon immigration.
Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure. This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels. |
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And inside the country, big waves of domestic migration are a thing of the past. It makes estimates much easier to make. We can assume migration levels remain the same of the past decade or assume it grew or fell according to fluctuations on the number of births. And speaking of which, Brazil grew 12.3% between 2000-2010 and is heading for a 9% between 2010-2020. For the next decade, I believe it will fall to 6%. São Paulo metro area will grow by 1.5 million (8% down from 10% on the last decade) to reach 21.2 million. 1.7 million based on natural growth while migration will be negative by 200,000 people, leaving the metro area mostly to the nearby metro areas part of the macrometropolis (Campinas region, the coast). |
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I used the 2020 estimates for the country and the 2019 for MSAs/CSAs. |
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The Conservatives may want fewer immigrants but our economic future demands we stay the course. The big worry is whether a Conservative government would adhere to ideology over what's best for Canada economically. It all hinges on whether immigration will return to pre-COVID levels. Will we see net migration back to 430,000+? Demographically speaking it would be prudent to get that number to 600,000 and keep it there for at least 20 years. In 2040, re-assess. Canada's Census is in 2021 and July 1st, 2020 estimates haven't been released yet. I'll provide figures for the year ending July 1st, 2019 as a gauge of where we were pre-COVID. The linked site below will spit out numbers for CMAs (Census Metropolitan Area) and CAs (Census Agglomeration) and data by year starting in 2007. CANADIAN POPULATION (July 1st, 2018 - July 1st 2019) Population: 37,589,262 Annual Increase: +531,497 Natural Increase: +94,808 Net Migration: +436,689 https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm |
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The whole point of the thread is discussing results as soon as they are released. Moreover estimates are fairly accurate and can provide us some lead about the actual results. |
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https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...orld_map_2.png CIA Worldfactbook |
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Q2, 2019: 37,408,205 Q3, 2019: 37,589,262 Q4, 2019: 37,797,496 Q1, 2020: 37,894,799 Q2, 2020: 37,971,020 So from July 1, 2019 to July 1, 2020 the population increase was +562,815 or +1.50%. I believe that's the fastest growth rate in the G7 and the 2nd largest absolute increase after the United States. The previous year July 1, 2018 to July 1, 2019 the increase was +531,497 or +1.43% so growth ramped up a little year over year. For the Big 4 provinces the figures as follows: Ontario: +260,798 (+1.80%) Quebec: +104,753 (+1.24%) Alberta: +77,346 (+1.78%) BC: +73,404 (+1.45%) https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710000901 |
Decades of below replacement birth rate is a distaster. A country cannot rely solely on immigration and still be healthy.
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Cities like New York, London (UK) and Tokyo have long relied on immigration from the hinterlands to maintain/grow population. The difference now being that these cities draw from the four corners of the globe. I don't see much difference at the country level, especially in the New World, where most countries are populated primarily from descendants of immigrants.
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It's not extremely common for New York to attract people from other parts of the country. The people who do migrate that way (like I did) are typically college educated and come to do skilled work in an industry specific to NYC. |
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