What a mess and an embarrassment. So the estimate is now $135 billion for the whole project? And complete by when...2060? If this project was supposed to provide an example of the viability of HSR in the US, I'd say it's failing spectacularly. I highly doubt we'll ever see more than the CV line. $35 billion to connect f***ing Merced to Bakersfield...what a joke.
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CAHSR will eventually run between the Bay Area and Southern California if Washington remains cooperative. That said, I don't expect service expansions to Sacramento and San Diego. In such a scenario, existing rail lines to those cities could be upgraded to faster rail, if not truly high-speed rail. Meanwhile, the private Brightline high-speed railroad (publicly funded, of course) between Southern California and Las Vegas will be an example of the viability of HSR in the US. It will almost certainly be the first in the nation. |
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We were going to have to wait a very long time for those anyway. That said, when they do happen I fully expect them to be fully compatible expansions of the then fully operational Phase 1. Confidence is what is sorely lacking in this country. |
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I think that there’s a good chance that at least the part of CAHSR that connects LAUS to Rancho Cucamonga could happen if they’re able to start just that phase. They’ll likely have to take away freeway lanes or homes, or maybe both to do it. *Amtrak isn’t technically a government company and would likely be a downgrade from Brightline. |
The Brightline line as currently planned between "LA" and "Las Vegas" might technically be the nation's first HSR line, but it's going to be small-time by any global standard and as compared to CAHSR.
It's amazing how CAHSR's IOS ending many miles north of LA is a "failure" but Brightline gets a pass for the same transgression. Similarly, CAHSR won't be high speed or fully grade separated in its approach to San Francisco, but Brightline won't even attempt to reach DT Las Vegas. |
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How about you? Any thoughts? What state do you live in? :rolleyes: |
edale, I understand your frustration. The timeline and process has been aggravating and disappointing. It is very important to stay positive though and not get too down over this. The future could just as easily see an acceleration of progress and significant federal dollars that will enable the beginning of serious work beyond IOS. I do ask you please site that quote by Kelly... I find that very surprising he would say those exact words.
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https://www.senate.ca.gov/media/sena...20240312/video https://vod.senate.ca.gov/videos/202...nsprtation.vtt Quote:
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I am still supportive of the project and don't want it cancelled or anything, but I am very frustrated and I think several critical errors have been made so far that seriously jeopardize the likelihood that this project ever sees full completion in my lifetime. |
Hmm, he seems to be emphasizing the time aspect more than whether the actual SF-LA route will see completion. Which is odd since the Measure language has a legal requirement of 2:40 station to station which the entirety of all engineering and specifications for the entire program is based off of.
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None of the mistakes have really been explained and a lot of it can be answered just by looking at the initial bond (like the speed complaints). I'd like to know about the mismanagement, specifically since it's an entire Authority. Quote:
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The supporters would still support it if it were 10 trillion, they don't care. Even though this money could have been used in a MASSIVE way to build bikeways and improve local transit throughout California. But no, they are getting a massively overbudget rail line that competes with the airlines (aka most poor people won't use it). |
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Like if you even taken a second to think before typing that you never would have. California is constantly improving local transit, and while it has its shortcomings, has come a long way from even the 1990s |
CA suburbs, cities and towns have bike lanes on the streets...even the worst offending suburban areas will have bike lanes on some streets.
:shrug: non-Californians still furious at us; don't worry about state funds, just federal funding for it. That allows us to be equally furious at any projects within a state somebody is posting from, especially if it is using federal funds. |
To be clear, I am still in full support of this project despite its cost overruns and delays. But yes, I understand the frustrations as well. In a perfect world, all segments would be under construction at once, meeting deadlines, and without going over budget.
I also agree that the end cities that this project will be connecting in the first phase at least (ie SF and LA) are already making local transit improvements as well, although again, it would be nice if they could happen faster and within original budget. The Transbay Downtown Rail Extension is on the FTA list of FY 2025 transit grants with $500 million. And as TWAK alluded to, Caltrain electrification is part of the project as well. |
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I mean, I get the frustration. I get the desire to see more progress faster and cheaper. But I don't get why you would be a big supporter of anything like what you describe above. If decades of work costing tens of billions of dollars only gets us a Central Valley route, I won't be a supporter at all. Luckily, I still expect CAHSR to eventually link the Bay Area and Southern California, where I currently live. |
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But construction of Ca HSR hasn't failed spectacularly. It's done pretty well with the resources allocated to it. What can you expect for $10 billion dollars, plus a pitiful annual allocation from the state cap-and-trade fund, plus the very infrequent gift of federal funds? It's not going to build the system overnight. And since the state has been so stingy releasing funds, construction progress has by necessity been slow, which results in overruns due to inflation. The only major construction misstep I've heard about was the authority's failure to complete land acquisitions before it awarded construction contracts. Partly this was due to the need to make the project eligible for the Obama stimulus grants that were supposed to favor shovel-ready projects. That added some costs, but probably minor ones in the bigger scheme of things. What has the state spent so far on the IOS? Certainly less than $20 billion. To put this in perspective, Caltrans spent $1.5 billion just to add a single northbound lane for 10 miles of the northbound San Diego Freeway in LA. Orange County spent over $2 billion to add 2 lanes to each side of the same freeway between Long Beach and Costa Mesa. Any congestion relief provided by those additional freeway lanes will have evaporated long before the IOS of Ca HSR opens for service. |
It's also incredibly important to remember that the multi-year financing of this thing in one of the wealthiest economies on earth is the equivalent of a handful of tech corp margin calls.
California's YEARLY state budget is a quarter of trillion dollars. Plus the feds will ultimately wind up paying a significant portion of the cost. |
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My county doesn't even have a regular rail line but I still like the project, because trains are cool and that means no spending limits! |
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Per Wiki, the yearly ridership was 847,364 (FY23). Some math follows: 847,364 / 365 = 2,321.5 Wiki also reports just 14 trains a day. More math follows: 2321/5 / 14 = 165.8 riders per train. |
What does that mean though, that the CV will not use HSR?
There's no service to compare the I-5 route with because there's basically nothing after the Stockton metro. |
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The reason ridership is relatively low compared to better systems, is because it's a passenger train, in America, outside of the northeast corridor. It not only has to share rail with freight, but it's also not had the investment/improvements that say, Acela has. If rail transit is improved, more riders will follow. |
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The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law does not have the funding needed for the non-CV portion of this project. The authority is hoping that they can get more funding from that law to complete the Central Valley portion. I don't expect the next presidential term to focus on more infrastructure funding (and we don't see that in their campaign platforms either). If Biden wins, I think the focus will be on social services, child care, housing and perhaps immigration. |
It's been a while since I read the proposition, but there are restrictions to how HSR is funded. Can the legislature even transfer funds or use a surplus for it? There's also rules for how much the state has to give back to taxpayers if there is a surplus.
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The impression the IOS will make will change all that.
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The San Andreas fault also had a lot to do with it.
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Downtown has but a fraction of the attractions and hotel rooms located on the Strip. Also, downtown attracts the less affluent--which matters in this discussion because Brighline tickets will be quite expensive relative to driving the family to and from town. No, the Strip will be the primary destination of the overwhelming majority of Brightline riders. That is where all of the splashy megaprojects are located. So how would Brightline or its riders be better served bypassing the Strip entirely, only to force travelers to somehow backtrack several miles from downtown? The planned Brightline terminal is less than a mile from the South Strip Transit Terminal, a major 24-hour transit hub just south of the airport. It would be easy for RTC to connect the Brightline station with the SSTT. |
Downtown Paradise? Vegas proper really got the shaft.
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Duh. The point is what could that money have done if it were put elsewhere? |
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The money is being put elsewhere; California is investing more into public transit now than ever before. And that includes a lot more than just CAHSR. |
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It is fine to argue about what the state budget allocations for everything should idealistically be going forward, but I think it makes sense to say that the $6.5 billion in cap-and-trade revenue allocated to CAHSR to date from past budgets would have otherwise gone to urban public transit projects (since most of the rest of the cap-and-trade revenue goes to them, and the purpose of the program is to pay for emissions reduction projects). |
The Caltrain portion would count for that, unless the funds came from more than just HSR?
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I would recommend to all who question California's ability to finance this project to remind themselves just how utterly enormous the economy of California is. The insinuation that California can't afford this is insulting and laughable. The politics of this project is what has held back it's full aggressive support. Once the awe of the IOS is on full display there is going to be a paradigm shift in political perception and public awareness that will fundamentally change the trajectory of Phase 1. It is my prediction you'll be hard-pressed to find many that will want to pull the plug after seeing the future with the IOS streaking across the Central Valley and departing gorgeous stations unlike anything most American's have personally seen. Fence walking politicians and even Repugs won't be able to get on board fast enough to chase public enthusiasm by throwing their full support behind aggressive completion of Phase 1.
Have some confidence. |
Upon opening day of the IOS, the CAHSR Authority should also open an express service from San Francisco to San Jose with actual high speed rail trains in full livery so people can see that more has been done than just the Central Valley segment.
This could build even more support for the connection tunnels between the Bay and Central Valley segments |
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^Good idea
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One of the main critiques that detractors like to say about CAHSR is that California has spent X years and X dollars and “not a single track has been laid.” The idea of Opening the Peninsula corridor CAHSR with full livery the same day or earlier than the IOS; operating roughly the same service pattern as envisioned, will go along way to demonstrate that this project is more than just laying new track, its upgrading Caltrain’s entire rail infrastructure and portions of Metrolink’s |
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