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-   -   How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=242036)

mhays May 17, 2020 3:44 PM

There are several but not necessarily for 12/31/20.

CDC projects "likely to exceed 100,000 by June 1st."

The UW's IHME projects 147,040 by August 4th.

It gets fuzzy very quickly. What sort of stay-at-home or social distancing will be in place? What level of compliance? Will we find better treatments? Will other strains arise? How many people already have it, or are carriers? And so on.

SIGSEGV May 17, 2020 4:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8924792)
There are several but not necessarily for 12/31/20.

CDC projects "likely to exceed 100,000 by June 1st."

The UW's IHME projects 147,040 by August 4th.

It gets fuzzy very quickly. What sort of stay-at-home or social distancing will be in place? What level of compliance? Will we find better treatments? Will other strains arise? How many people already have it, or are carriers? And so on.

Yes, all of the models are assuming the same level of social distancing as far as I know.

mhays May 17, 2020 5:44 PM

The earlier models assumed countries and people would act intelligently.

Then they started to react to the reality of the US' limited/disjointed response, and the public's lack of understanding/compliance. This has moved the projections up substantially.

Rather than topping out in (wild guess) the mid five figures, I'll make a guess of 150,000 to 200,000 by the end of the year assuming no big leap in treatment. We'll hit 100,000 next weekend, extrapolating from the 90,000 currently on WorldO.

chris08876 May 17, 2020 5:53 PM

This is a good shot to represent that pandemic in NYC.

Very suiting.

https://media.gettyimages.com/photos...28?s=2048x2048
Credit: Getty Images

chris08876 May 17, 2020 5:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8924861)
The earlier models assumed countries and people would act intelligently.

They need to adjust the models. Folks never act intelligently. That's a massive error in the model that needs to be corrected ASAP. The parameter of folks acting intelligently. Especially in America, the coefficient is a lot higher in America. Might even be a parameter that "exponentially" increases any model figure of deaths or cases.

F(x) = T(o)F^3 where T(o) is the time of quarantine measured in weeks and F = Freedom cubed. More freedom an individual possesses, and the greater the ego is of freedom, the more likely we are to see cases in folks that don't wear masks or don't follow rules.

Rebels and folks that have AR-15's on their backs have a high freedom index.

Kngkyle May 17, 2020 6:19 PM

Where are the models calculating the lives lost as a result of the global lockdown?

Pedestrian May 17, 2020 6:28 PM

Quote:

Social distancing on Chestnut Street — what’s that?
Steve Rubenstein
May 16, 2020 Updated: May 16, 2020 8:21 p.m.

Dozens of people standing shoulder to shoulder in front of two Marina District wine bars drew a visit and an admonishment on Friday night from San Francisco police.

Police were called to the 2300 block of Chestnut Street where they found “people not complying with the health ordinance” to maintain social distance and wear face masks, said sergeant Michael Andraychak.

The proprietors of the two bars, Howell’s and Cultivar, were “admonished” by officers, Andraychak said. It was the first time the establishments had been the subject of complaints, he added.

Photographs of dozens of unmasked young people crowded onto the sidewalk and street circulated on social media, drawing angry comments . . . .

Under the state’s temporary coronavirus rules, bars and restaurants are allowed to serve alcoholic beverages for takeout.

The management of Howell’s, whose menu offers bottles of Chateau Mouton Rothschild wine for $5,000, did not return calls seeking comment . . . .

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...s-15275408.php

D*mned overpaid techies!

mhays May 17, 2020 6:30 PM

So far, total deaths appear to be higher than the Covid increase alone. But the general thinking appears to be that it's mostly underreporting Covid deaths and people not getting medical care for other things.

Pedestrian May 17, 2020 6:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 8924878)
They need to adjust the models. Folks never act intelligently.

Define "intelligently". Usually it turns out to mean "doing what I'd do". Frankly, in this situation the "experts" have turned out wrong more often than right and I admit to behaving contrary to their recommendations. For example, I purchased a small supply of N95 respirator masks in January when they were all telling us that "intelligent" behavior did NOT include wearing masks.

Frankly, I don't think this one is too hard. There's this "thing" in the air emanating as much as 12 ft or more from other people (you can't tell which ones) indoors in still air, and on surfaces in public places and you don't want to breathe the air (unfiltered) or touch the surfaces. Generally certain masks clean the air (but it can still get into your eyes so you might want to protect them too) and certain liquids get rid of the "thing" on surfaces.

If you aren't very stupid, you should be able to figure out ways to avoid the "thing".

mhays May 17, 2020 7:14 PM

It can be put very simply: "Intelligent" would involve following the basic advice of your state.

Since many people don't, tens of thousands more have died in the US than would have.

They're figuring out the nuances of the rules as more information comes in, as more supplies are available, and so on. That doesn't change the point.

SIGSEGV May 17, 2020 7:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876 (Post 8924878)
They need to adjust the models. Folks never act intelligently. That's a massive error in the model that needs to be corrected ASAP. The parameter of folks acting intelligently. Especially in America, the coefficient is a lot higher in America. Might even be a parameter that "exponentially" increases any model figure of deaths or cases.

F(x) = T(o)F^3 where T(o) is the time of quarantine measured in weeks and F = Freedom cubed. More freedom an individual possesses, and the greater the ego is of freedom, the more likely we are to see cases in folks that don't wear masks or don't follow rules.

Rebels and folks that have AR-15's on their backs have a high freedom index.

Another issue is that the models predict ranges (presumably derived from variations of model parameters, or, for more sophisticated models, perhaps quantiles of different monte carlo realizations),, but if the distribution of deaths is fat-tailed, that can be a severe underestimate with non-negligible probability. Taleb loves to toot his own horn, so of course he put out a preprint on this topic that is worth reading (if you can stand his writing style). I found it remarkably readable even with very little prior knowledge of extreme-value theory: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.08658

iheartthed May 17, 2020 7:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8924861)
The earlier models assumed countries and people would act intelligently.

Then they started to react to the reality of the US' limited/disjointed response, and the public's lack of understanding/compliance. This has moved the projections up substantially.

Rather than topping out in (wild guess) the mid five figures, I'll make a guess of 150,000 to 200,000 by the end of the year assuming no big leap in treatment. We'll hit 100,000 next weekend, extrapolating from the 90,000 currently on WorldO.

Since we're on track for 100K before June 1, I'd expect 3x - 4x that number by end of the year with no scientific intervention. It took less than a month to double from 45K to 90K, so we could easily see 200K deaths in July.

As I see it, the variables are 1) whether more awareness of the virus helps to slow the spread absent the strict government mandates, and 2) whether warmer weather will naturally slow the spread. I think we've seen enough evidence that warmer weather doesn't really slow the spread. The jury is still out on whether education alone will dampen the infection rate, but it seems extremely unlikely.

10023 May 17, 2020 8:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8924939)
It can be put very simply: "Intelligent" would involve following the basic advice of your state.

Since many people don't, tens of thousands more have died in the US than would have.

They're figuring out the nuances of the rules as more information comes in, as more supplies are available, and so on. That doesn't change the point.

Nonsense.

the urban politician May 17, 2020 8:55 PM

^ Yep

Actually, I have yet to see a shred of evidence anywhere that across the board Stay at home orders have reduced deaths.

I am not saying that they don’t work. I just wonder what the evidence is. More likely stay at home orders come from a “let’s play it as safely as possible mentality”

Yuri May 17, 2020 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 8925031)
^ Yep

Actually, I have yet to see a shred of evidence anywhere that across the board Stay at home orders have reduced deaths.

I am not saying that they don’t work. I just wonder what the evidence is. More likely stay at home orders come from a “let’s play it as safely as possible mentality”

You are claiming the virus spreading rates weren't reduced while people were distancing themselves?

The US has 3-5 million cases for 100k-120k deaths (guessing the undercounting). You would rather have 50 million and 1 million deaths instead? Considering the number of deaths would be much higher as many people who might survived would die as hospitals wouldn't be treated them.

I don't understand where all this anger and anti-social feeling come from. Whatever happen to the US civic sense, patriotism and self-abnegation? If one can't have small adjustments to deal with a pandemic, God forbids what would result if the US faced a doomsday scenario. Governments would collapse instantly and people would kill each other to extinction.

On the other hand we have societies that went through a strict lockdown like Norway, pretty much stopped deaths and are already planning to open cinemas. Little or no harm on the economy. The US, on the other hand, will have to deal with this for the rest of the year while unemployment skyrocketed. Needless to mention the political unrest that makes the country even weaker.

the urban politician May 17, 2020 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yuriandrade (Post 8925080)
You are claiming the virus spreading rates weren't reduced while people were distancing themselves?

I pretty much stopped reading your rant of a post after this sentence.

Go back and reread my post. I said absolutely none of what you claimed.

Crawford May 17, 2020 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yuriandrade (Post 8925080)
You are claiming the virus spreading rates weren't reduced while people were distancing themselves?

No, that isn't the issue. The issue is causation, not correlation.

There's presently no evidence that the enforced lockdowns have decreased deaths. It's just wild guesses, and the safe default for politicians.

The North One May 17, 2020 10:26 PM

lol wow, the delusion has reached a new high in crawfordland.

Crawford May 17, 2020 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One (Post 8925094)
lol wow, the delusion has reached a new high in crawfordland.

Which of course means you're ready to post the peer-reviewed studies that suggest a causal link between enforced shutdowns and Covid-19 transmission, correct? :uhh:

Yuri May 17, 2020 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 8925090)
I pretty much stopped reading your rant of a post after this sentence.

Go back and reread my post. I said absolutely none of what you claimed.

I reread your post and to me enforced or self-imposed quarentine are the same for the purposes they are happening. I don't care about those delusions of "freedom", "tyranny", etc.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford (Post 8925092)
No, that isn't the issue. The issue is causation, not correlation.

There's presently no evidence that the enforced lockdowns have decreased deaths. It's just wild guesses, and the safe default for politicians.

:haha:

Ok then. Everything should work as usual, restaurants, nightclubs, sports events, why to bother? Let's have 100 million Americans (or more) simultaneously getting infected. Assuming 5% of cases require hospitalization, what might go wrong?


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