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-   -   How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=242036)

iheartthed May 7, 2020 7:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suburbanite (Post 8915421)
Have the deaths/day gone up? I thought early-to-mid April would've been peak deaths in New York and the hardest hit areas.

Yes, there were over 2,500 deaths yesterday versus the 1,900 a month ago. Deaths in New York are down a lot, but that is being offset by increases in other parts of the country.

mhays May 7, 2020 7:45 PM

Too early to answer that clearly. The average stats have dipped a little, probably. They vary a lot per day, which is really more about reporting.

The old hotspots have calmed down a bit, but new ones have been rising.

maru2501 May 7, 2020 8:03 PM

Illinois 136 yesterday and 138 today, vast majority Cook County (Chi)


what's raising the most alarm is that the average time from contraction to death is 20 days. The Illinois stay-at-home order went into effect March 21, so we are more than two "death cycles" distant from that.

which means it is continuing to spread despite everything being shut down.

there are only so many nurses and first-responders in that mix, so people are still getting it environmentally at grocery stores and so forth

SIGSEGV May 7, 2020 8:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by maru2501 (Post 8915446)
Illinois 136 yesterday and 138 today, vast majority Cook County (Chi)


what's raising the most alarm is that the average time from contraction to death is 20 days. The Illinois stay-at-home order went into effect March 21, so we are more than two "death cycles" distant from that.

which means it is continuing to spread despite everything being shut down.

there are only so many nurses and first-responders in that mix, so people are still getting it environmentally at grocery stores and so forth

I saw people playing football the other day. Not everyone is taking it seriously, unfortunately.

The North One May 7, 2020 9:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by maru2501 (Post 8915446)
Illinois 136 yesterday and 138 today, vast majority Cook County (Chi)


what's raising the most alarm is that the average time from contraction to death is 20 days. The Illinois stay-at-home order went into effect March 21, so we are more than two "death cycles" distant from that.

which means it is continuing to spread despite everything being shut down.

there are only so many nurses and first-responders in that mix, so people are still getting it environmentally at grocery stores and so forth

Did Illinois ever really shut down though? You guys never even restricted construction and acted like everything was business as usual, now it's coming back to bite.

10023 May 7, 2020 9:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One (Post 8915524)
Did Illinois ever really shut down though? You guys never even restricted construction and acted like everything was business as usual, now it's coming back to bite.

Chicago is definitely under stay at home order and even the parks are closed, which isn’t the case in most places. But the numbers also aren’t high.

Lear May 7, 2020 11:20 PM

Berlin Senate Eases Corona Restrictions in German Capital

jtown,man May 8, 2020 2:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8914631)
Deaths by age, per the Seattle Times' daily update about Washington:

80+: 53%
60-79: 38%
40-59: 8%
20-39: 1%

Usually deaths are people with other issues, but this gets many who are nowhere near nursing homes.

So 91% of deaths are of people 60 and over. This population makes up like 16% of the country. Why are 20 year olds being banned from college classrooms? LOL

SCIENCE!

jtown,man May 8, 2020 2:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One (Post 8915524)
Did Illinois ever really shut down though? You guys never even restricted construction and acted like everything was business as usual, now it's coming back to bite.

Acted like everything was business as usual...based on construction not being banned? What other example do you have to support that point?

mhays May 8, 2020 4:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8915780)
So 91% of deaths are of people 60 and over. This population makes up like 16% of the country. Why are 20 year olds being banned from college classrooms? LOL

SCIENCE!

I can't tell if you're joking but I'll answer as if you're not. If otherwise, forgive me for responding like you're 12.

Because:
A. If younger people get it, they'll carry it to the older people. Most sheltered people interact with non-sheltered people.
B. It's still dangerous for younger people, just less so.
C. If the number of serious cases gets above a certain level, the death rate per case goes way up.
D. We've never had enough PPE for essential workers, let alone the general public.
E. Getting the numbers way down will mean we might be able to start responding to individual breakouts vs. focusing on rules for everyone.
F. And so on.

In any case, posts like yours are against the rules, and I'm guessing it'll be deleted.

10023 May 8, 2020 7:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8915809)
I can't tell if you're joking but I'll answer as if you're not. If otherwise, forgive me for responding like you're 12.

Because:
A. If younger people get it, they'll carry it to the older people. Most sheltered people interact with non-sheltered people.
B. It's still dangerous for younger people, just less so.
C. If the number of serious cases gets above a certain level, the death rate per case goes way up.
D. We've never had enough PPE for essential workers, let alone the general public.
E. Getting the numbers way down will mean we might be able to start responding to individual breakouts vs. focusing on rules for everyone.
F. And so on.

In any case, posts like yours are against the rules, and I'm guessing it'll be deleted.

A. It’s the responsibility of those younger people to not interact with older people unless they are also isolating themselves.
B. This is false unless they have underlying health conditions, including obesity. Or at least the risk is so low that applying the same risk avoidance standard would preclude most daily activities, like getting behind the wheel of a car.
C. This can be monitored, but the risk of overwhelming the health system appears to have passed.
D. Most people don’t need PPE.
E. This will only be possible with comprehensive testing, which isn’t going to be feasible.
F. Not an argument.


And why on earth is his post against the rules? There’s no link to a bogus source, no ad hominem attack, and nothing “offensive”.

glowrock May 8, 2020 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One (Post 8915524)
Did Illinois ever really shut down though? You guys never even restricted construction and acted like everything was business as usual, now it's coming back to bite.

Oh yes, Chicago is normal. Perfectly normal, nobody even notices the pandemic. Oh good lord, dude. You're 110% flat-out wrong on this one. You've not seen photos of virtually empty streets in the Loop? Closed parks? No Lakefront trail? Close to empty L Trains and buses? Everyone under a mask order for any situation where 6 foot distancing isn't likely? Only take-out and delivery options for restaurants? No bars? No pretty much everything other than groceries and household staples?

Wow, yeah, Chicago is normal, all right. :(

As for 10023, you don't think our numbers are still high? 3000 new cases, 130+ deaths just yesterday? The vast majority being in Cook County? Nah, just statistical noise. Sheesh.

Aaron (Glowrock)

Yuri May 8, 2020 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 8915868)
A. It’s the responsibility of those younger people to not interact with older people unless they are also isolating themselves.
B. This is false unless they have underlying health conditions, including obesity. Or at least the risk is so low that applying the same risk avoidance standard would preclude most daily activities, like getting behind the wheel of a car.
C. This can be monitored, but the risk of overwhelming the health system appears to have passed.
D. Most people don’t need PPE.
E. This will only be possible with comprehensive testing, which isn’t going to be feasible.
F. Not an argument.


And why on earth is his post against the rules? There’s no link to a bogus source, no ad hominem attack, and nothing “offensive”.

Your discourse is always evolving. As Covid-19 deaths skyrocketed, you've became more "sophisticated" abandoning the "old people must die" on March to a more palatable posts, pretending to be reasonable and decent.

Yuri May 8, 2020 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yuriandrade (Post 8914219)
Sweden 3,000 deaths, Denmark 500 and Norway 200. We are talking of at least 2,000 preventable deaths in a very peaceful and rather small country. And counting as daily deaths are near 100.

And for what, two extra months with haircuts and bars? Norway and Denmark pretty much controlled the epidemic, planning the opening, while Sweden is still badly struggling.

Forecasts for 2020 growth (European Comission):

Sweden: -6.1%
Denmark: -5.9%

Careless policies resulted in an even worse economic performance. And as Denmark and Norway put the outbreak under control and are resuming activities, their economy will probably even better for the rest of 2020 while Sweden are still dealing with 100 deaths daily.

ChiMIchael May 8, 2020 1:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glowrock (Post 8915898)
Oh yes, Chicago is normal. Perfectly normal, nobody even notices the pandemic. Oh good lord, dude. You're 110% flat-out wrong on this one. You've not seen photos of virtually empty streets in the Loop? Closed parks? No Lakefront trail? Close to empty L Trains and buses? Everyone under a mask order for any situation where 6 foot distancing isn't likely? Only take-out and delivery options for restaurants? No bars? No pretty much everything other than groceries and household staples?

Wow, yeah, Chicago is normal, all right. :(

As for 10023, you don't think our numbers are still high? 3000 new cases, 130+ deaths just yesterday? The vast majority being in Cook County? Nah, just statistical noise. Sheesh.

Aaron (Glowrock)

Idk, it seems like Illinois has taken relatively restrictive measures to bend the curve, but I still cannot stop peaking. It's hard to blame people coming outside at every warm up since it's happens everywhere in the US but some states' number are more under control. I'm hoping things will start to change by the end of the month.

Kngkyle May 8, 2020 2:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yuriandrade (Post 8915909)
Forecasts for 2020 growth (European Comission):

Sweden: -6.1%
Denmark: -5.9%

Careless policies resulted in an even worse economic performance. And as Denmark and Norway put the outbreak under control and are resuming activities, their economy will probably even better for the rest of 2020 while Sweden are still dealing with 100 deaths daily.

That is a forecast, not actuals. And nobody can accurately forecast what is going to happen right now, so it's pretty worthless as well. What if Denmark and Norway have a second wave and Sweden doesn't? Is Sweden just pulling the bandaid off quickly and Denmark and Norway are delaying the inevitable? We don't know. You don't know. Why do you act like you know?

Vlajos May 8, 2020 2:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiMIchael (Post 8915987)
Idk, it seems like Illinois has taken relatively restrictive measures to bend the curve, but I still cannot stop peaking. It's hard to blame people coming outside at every warm up since it's happens everywhere in the US but some states' number are more under control. I'm hoping things will start to change by the end of the month.

Is there anyplace in the US that is saying don't go outside? I haven't heard of one.

Crawford May 8, 2020 3:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vlajos (Post 8916066)
Is there anyplace in the US that is saying don't go outside? I haven't heard of one.

How about almost everywhere? #StaySafeStayHome and all that crap?

I think Chicago even closed parks and the lakefront; if that isn't saying "don't go outside", then what is?

Steely Dan May 8, 2020 3:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford (Post 8916072)

I think Chicago even closed parks and the lakefront; if that isn't saying "don't go outside", then what is?

Chicago closed the lakefront trail because of overcrowding, but other city parks have remained open, at least the ones by me.

I've been taking my kids out on bike rides on the northshore channel trail (which goes through several city and suburban parks) 3 - 4x per week for the past several weeks without issue. We find big open fields away from other people and let our little ones run out their excess energy.

We also frequently walk over to the athletic field at the school a block south of us to let them run around and do active stuff as well, though sometimes it gets a little crowded and we have to wait for our "turn". all of the parents in our neighborhood seem to understand how important it is for everyone's sanity to let young children run around and be wild and crazy and loud.

It's been a lifesaver.

mhays May 8, 2020 3:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 8915868)
A. It’s the responsibility of those younger people to not interact with older people unless they are also isolating themselves.
B. This is false unless they have underlying health conditions, including obesity. Or at least the risk is so low that applying the same risk avoidance standard would preclude most daily activities, like getting behind the wheel of a car.
C. This can be monitored, but the risk of overwhelming the health system appears to have passed.
D. Most people don’t need PPE.
E. This will only be possible with comprehensive testing, which isn’t going to be feasible.
F. Not an argument.

And why on earth is his post against the rules? There’s no link to a bogus source, no ad hominem attack, and nothing “offensive”.

You're using guy-on-street logic. To borrow from the people who actually know things:

A. You can't separate the young from the old unless they go to separate islands. There will be cross-contamination, starting with service staff. PPE and social distancing are partial measures, particularly when people come into direct contact.

B. The young are at risk for a variety of reasons including hidden conditions.

C. The risk of overwhelming the system has diminished for now...because we shut things down. This is one reason why partial reopening is starting to make sense.

D. Most people DO need PPE to avoid the situations in A, B, C, etc.

E. The ability to track and respond to localized outbreaks instead of mass-rules...doing it well requires a lot of testing, but a moderate level of social distancing, PPE, and basic temperature checks can lower that bar. This is a basic point behind why we're trying to get things to a lower level currently.


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