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Northern Light Mar 26, 2020 8:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 8874871)
We are talking about millions of lives. If 80% of the U.S. population becomes infected to achieve "herd immunity", then even under the most conservative mortality rate you're talking about 3 million fatalities. Italy is currently around an 10% mortality rate, that is driven by their health care system being overwhelmed. So, if we allowed our healthcare system to get overwhelmed then we're talking about 30 million deaths.

But we're not just talking about 30 million elderly people. Half of the hospitalizations in New York have been in the under 50 crowd (40% in the 18 - 44 group). So you could expect a good number of those 30 million fatalities to come from working age - younger, otherwise healthy people. Is that good for the economy? Can the United States economy withstand permanently losing 10-15 million working age people?

Ok, for the record, that is not a reasonable conclusion.

The reason being mortality rates are inflated in most countries, by the fact that very few asymptomatic people have been tested; and antibody testing has not been normative either. (showing levels of previously infected people)

If we look at Germany, where we see a mortality rate of 0.4%, and falling, we all see a very high rate of testing, early on.

Italy now has a higher number of tests, but far more focused on the symptomatic.

Now, they will still have have a higher mortality rate than most, for a variety of reasons from demographics to a healthcare system that suffered a near-collapse locally/regionally.

***

Right now, US mortality is running about 1.3%, I would expect that number to rise in the near term due to local hospitals/areas struggling to keep up.

But that number will eventually decline, I would hope/assume with more widespread testing.

But we are still talking thousands of deaths for sure, possibly tens of thousands; maybe into the hundreds of thousands, though hopefully not.

Though whatever the number, the accretive total will be lower.

(the number of deaths that were more than typical for 'x' period in a typical year.)

***

None of the above should convey any lack of seriousness on my part about this situation.

I very much feel that it is.

But I also feel its important to work with facts and logical assumptions.

pdxtex Mar 26, 2020 8:37 PM

The reporting from the get go has been misleading too. The vast majority of deaths involve comorbidity with something even deadlier killing the patient. Normal pneumonia and normal influenza combined kills 10 percent of those inflicted. This is s new bug. Many will get sick. Most will get a normal flu bug and not the novel strain. I'm not an actuary but the notion that millions!! of Americans will die sounds ludicrous and alarmist. If that happens I ll eat my hat..

iheartthed Mar 26, 2020 9:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Northern Light (Post 8875002)
Ok, for the record, that is not a reasonable conclusion.

The reason being mortality rates are inflated in most countries, by the fact that very few asymptomatic people have been tested; and antibody testing has not been normative either. (showing levels of previously infected people)

If we look at Germany, where we see a mortality rate of 0.4%, and falling, we all see a very high rate of testing, early on.

Italy now has a higher number of tests, but far more focused on the symptomatic.

Now, they will still have have a higher mortality rate than most, for a variety of reasons from demographics to a healthcare system that suffered a near-collapse locally/regionally.

***

Right now, US mortality is running about 1.3%, I would expect that number to rise in the near term due to local hospitals/areas struggling to keep up.

But that number will eventually decline, I would hope/assume with more widespread testing.

But we are still talking thousands of deaths for sure, possibly tens of thousands; maybe into the hundreds of thousands, though hopefully not.

Though whatever the number, the accretive total will be lower.

(the number of deaths that were more than typical for 'x' period in a typical year.)

***

None of the above should convey any lack of seriousness on my part about this situation.

I very much feel that it is.

But I also feel its important to work with facts and logical assumptions.

Iceland tested the entire country and found that of all the infected people, half were asymptomatic. So, using that rule of thumb, Italy's mortality rate would still be 4-5%.

Pedestrian Mar 26, 2020 9:16 PM

San Francisco in time of coronavirus or scenes from "The Omega Man" . . . you decide:

Video Link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoTekwmHXF0

Video Link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mbmX4EcHEc

Qubert Mar 26, 2020 9:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrnyc (Post 8874827)
maybe after they cure the corona they'll come up with something for aspergers. :rolleyes:

...as an Aspergers individual, I think coming up with something for ignorance/prejudice is more important.

Just to throw more gas on the dumpster fire: When push comes to shove I think the main issue is getting those who are medically fragile to stay home rather than shut the whole economy down. I agree it's harsh to tell specific sectors of society to limit themselves but when it comes down to it economics is in fact life for many. The family living paycheck to paycheck might only be 6-8 weeks out from simply having no food. That's kinda deadly too. Not to mention the collateral damages from social unrest.

Right now, we should all shelter in place. Once everyone can get a test, those found to have had it and pass through should absolutely be let out and move on from there....

sopas ej Mar 26, 2020 9:54 PM

As a result of the influenza pandemic of 1918, Los Angeles city leaders closed down much of the city for seven weeks. So how did Los Angeles, then a city of approximately 570,000 people, cope? The answer is remarkably similar to how we're dealing with COVID-19 today.

https://www.kcet.org/sites/kl/files/...d66d-eight.jpg
Pasadena, approximately 1919: Patients rest in hospital beds while nurses wearing breathing masks tend to them. This photo was likely taken in the isolation ward at Wilson High School during the 1918 and 1919 influenza epidemic. | Harold A. Parker/Huntington Digital Library


From KCET.org:

How Did L.A. Cope With the Influenza Pandemic of 1918?

Story by Hadley Meares

On December 3, 1918, Angelenos were in a euphoric mood. After seven weeks of a citywide shut-down, ordered in an attempt to stamp out the deadly Spanish Flu, the "influenza ban" had finally been lifted by city leaders.

"Saturated with fiesta spirit of gaiety and good cheer, the downtown streets of Los Angeles surged yesterday with people," the Los Angeles Times reported at the time. "Some of the picture shows opened their doors early yesterday forenoon and their patronage began at once, increasing in volume as the day proceeded... long lines of people stood before the ticket window at these places."

Stores rushed to put out Christmas displays to lure holiday shoppers. Community choirs, book clubs, bible studies and schoolfriends reunited, eager for life to return to normal.

Two months prior, on October 1, 1918, everything in Los Angeles had changed.

That was when the first civilian case of the Spanish Flu had been diagnosed in the city. This particular strain of influenza would eventually kill 675,000 people in the United States and an estimated 25 to 50 million people around the world. In L.A., it killed 494 out of every 100,000 residents, approximately .49% of the city's population.

Ten days after that first case in L.A., another 680 local cases had been reported, according to N. Pieter M. O'Leary, author of The 1918-1919 Influenza Epidemic In Los Angeles.

City leaders acted with remarkable speed, journalist Gustave Arellano notes, closing down much of the city by October 11. Households with a diagnosed case of influenza were quarantined and marked with placards placed outside their door, group meetings were banned and life became eerily like the situation we're experiencing now.

So how did Los Angeles, then a city of approximately 570,000 people, cope? The answer is remarkably similar to how we're dealing with COVID-19 today. People developed new routines and found ways to create comfort and a sense of normality.

In the early days of the outbreak, Angelenos rushed to drugstores, eager to stock up on remedies and palliatives to combat the flu.

"The big run was on atomizers for the throat and nose, nasal douches, menthol inhalers, cold-breakers of many kinds, and dozens of highly-recommended gargles," the Los Angeles Times says in a recent story. "Listerine, peroxide and half a dozen other antiseptics and mouth washes sold like hot cakes, although some who carried home atomizers declared that they intended to stick to the old rule of a teaspoonful of common salt or baking soda to a glass of water for gargle or atomizer spray in the nose or throat."

The media offered homespun, and sometimes dubious, advice.

"You are more likely to have influenza if you think you have it then if you think away from it. Keep the germs out of your mind. And don't cool off too quickly after getting heated. If you do — kerchoo!" the L.A. Times advised.

Santa Monica Police officer William Sanlin offered his remedy for warding off the dreaded flu, which the paper printed in full:

"Into his briar pipe he first puts a layer of tobacco and then a layer of cubebs and tops off with tobacco. When the charred tobacco falls upon the cubebs an odor is given off that would seem able to kill even a German germ. Sandlin has remained on duty without any grippe symptoms appearing, while every other officer on his shift has been laid up for days. He says additional efficacy is secured if one has a strong enough stomach to inhale the fumes."

Public school officials had closed all public schools in mid-October, so parents everywhere found themselves stuck at home with bored, antsy children. Initially given no homework, students finally received direction on October 23, when an announcement was made via the local papers. "...Speaking of the saddest words of tongue or pen (from the juvenile standpoint). Here they are: Acting Superintendent Moniux of the city schools has put a period to the influenza vacation," the L.A. Times reported.

The parents of elementary school children were instructed to set aside time every day to read with their children, using schoolbooks or books from approved lists on file at the public libraries. High school students were required to study four hours a day and threatened with examinations when school reopened. Teachers could be reached by telephone for instruction. One teacher in Montrose heard her pupils' recitations over the telephone from her boardinghouse, although it "interfered with morning visits of neighbor women."

[...]

Read the rest here...

Link: https://www.kcet.org/coronavirus-cov...1dZJmIvhcXXhJ8

pdxtex Mar 26, 2020 10:18 PM

Sounds good to me. Banish the sick, let the healthy get back to work. The overwhelming consensus still seems that it spreads most effectively from coughing. So when are we all going to stop being paranoid and get on with things?

jtown,man Mar 26, 2020 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV (Post 8874098)
Hah was that the Coliseum park playground? I noticed kids playing there too. Even worse was the basketball court at the Hilliard Homes, which was full of teens hanging out and playing basketball.

I saw people there too on the big swing but I was specifically talking about Cotton Tail park, it was packed.

Man, these people shut the trail down today!

jtown,man Mar 26, 2020 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sopas ej (Post 8874141)
It hasn't even been a full week yet since Governor Newsom's California-wide stay at home order, but some people here have been acting like they've been sequestered for 2 months or something. If anything, this pandemic has shown what a bunch of pussies a lot of people are.

You think staying at home is what is making people "pussies?"

Yeah, there is NOTHING else related to this situation than being stuck at home. Forgot the health and economic issues related to the situation.

Handro Mar 26, 2020 10:31 PM

"panic"
"hysertia"
"overreaction"
"paranoid"

I keep seeing these buzzwords pop up among certain segments of the population, segments which also often conveniently ignore other sciences. I think there is a misconception among this segment of society about the most basic scientific principles. Scientists, by and large, do not panic, succumb to hysteria, or react in paranoia. As a group, they are not trying to win elections or sell newspapers or trade in stocks.

It isn't the media or politicians driving this, it's the world's leading epidemiologists, virologists, and public health experts. Whatever non-experts think feels right, that doesn't matter.

It also flys in the face of basic reality, as we have seen in other countries that ignored warnings to stay home. We don't even need to think theoretically, we have the proof right in front of us. My sister lives in Brescia, Italy. Perhaps I can ask her to take a picture of the military vehicles lined up near the hospitals there to store bodies since the morgues have been overrun?

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8875134)
I saw people there too on the big swing but I was specifically talking about Cotton Tail park, it was packed.

Man, these people shut the trail down today!

don't you live in the South Loop? Have you witnessed any of the light shows/singing that I read about earlier? Apparently ever night at 8...

sopas ej Mar 26, 2020 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8875135)
You think staying at home is what is making people "pussies?"

Yeah, there is NOTHING else related to this situation than being stuck at home. Forgot the health and economic issues related to the situation.

I was talking about the people who are still employed and are able to work from home. They're already complaining about cabin fever, and it's only been a week. AND, they've been able to go outside and take walks.

Yeah, pussies.

jtown,man Mar 26, 2020 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford (Post 8874823)
I absolutely believe that. But not specifically "dollar amount"; I believe that human interaction, ultimately, is essential for human existence. Economic productivity is an output.

Not only that. The "economy" isn't some distant inhuman thing, it's literally why I am using a nice laptop while talking to you people over the internet in a decent apartment with AC on in the winter. It's the reason my girlfriend can work from home or how I got some deep dish for lunch/dinner so I can eat.

Without the economy, you have NOTHING but tribal society. Would we be happier that way? Maybe(but I like modern healthcare). But it's not realistic on a large scale.

sopas ej Mar 26, 2020 10:43 PM

Well surprise, surprise. Now the US has more COVID-19 cases than Italy.

SteveD Mar 26, 2020 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sopas ej (Post 8875161)
Well surprise, surprise. Now the US has more COVID-19 cases than Italy.

Just sailed past China too. We're #1 We're #1!

It took about 3 months for the World to record the first 500K documented cases. I bet the next 500K will be about 2 weeks.

Pedestrian Mar 26, 2020 10:57 PM

I say let all the people who think we are over-reacting and need to get back to work go out and play contact sports with one another in the parks until they've all had it and recovered or died. Then maybe the virus will have trouble finding the rest of us as we emerge.

Pedestrian Mar 26, 2020 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveD (Post 8875167)
Just sailed past China too. We're #1 We're #1!

It took about 3 months for the World to record the first 500K documented cases. I bet the next 500K will be about 2 weeks.

I wouldn't bet on that being true and if it is, it won't stay true for long as the virus swaths its way through India, Indonesia and the rest.

jtown,man Mar 26, 2020 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handro (Post 8875143)
"panic"
"hysertia"
"overreaction"
"paranoid"

I keep seeing these buzzwords pop up among certain segments of the population, segments which also often conveniently ignore other sciences. I think there is a misconception among this segment of society about the most basic scientific principles. Scientists, by and large, do not panic, succumb to hysteria, or react in paranoia. As a group, they are not trying to win elections or sell newspapers or trade in stocks.

It isn't the media or politicians driving this, it's the world's leading epidemiologists, virologists, and public health experts. Whatever non-experts think feels right, that doesn't matter.

It also flys in the face of basic reality, as we have seen in other countries that ignored warnings to stay home. We don't even need to think theoretically, we have the proof right in front of us. My sister lives in Brescia, Italy. Perhaps I can ask her to take a picture of the military vehicles lined up near the hospitals there to store bodies since the morgues have been overrun?



don't you live in the South Loop? Have you witnessed any of the light shows/singing that I read about earlier? Apparently ever night at 8...

Yes lol I took a video last night. We have about two more hours until it starts again lol

Pedestrian Mar 26, 2020 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveD (Post 8875167)
Just sailed past China too. We're #1 We're #1!

It took about 3 months for the World to record the first 500K documented cases. I bet the next 500K will be about 2 weeks.

When you see these numbers, keep in mind the following:

https://uniim1.shutterfly.com/ng/ser...264126/enhance
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

This data is 6 days old. It shows the US having done about 100,000 tests. Here's data as of today for the US only:

https://uniim1.shutterfly.com/ng/ser...264864/enhance
https://covidtracking.com/data/

So the US is really ramping when it comes to testing. In the last 6 days we appear to have done 4 times as many tests as in all the time before that. And I doubt many other countries are seeing that kind of increase in testing (which would produce a rapid increase in cases of the disease).

And here's another tidbit:

Spain, Europe's worst-hit country after Italy, says coronavirus tests it bought from China are failing to detect positive cases . . . . The Spanish newspaper El País reported that microbiologists found that tests it bought from a Chinese company called Bioeasy could correctly identify virus cases only 30% of the time.

So maybe we need to apply an adjustment factor to the Chinese data.

photoLith Mar 26, 2020 11:24 PM

Hey Jmanc, someone from Kingwood just died from this. My mom is freaking out, since she still lives in Kingwood.

SteveD Mar 26, 2020 11:34 PM

Thanks for those links, Pedestrian...good stuff to play around with!


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