A couple posts ago you were talking about taking Ubers and now you're worried that you're going to get covid from somebody who was in the elevator a while ago? Hopefully the driver in the Uber and all the previous recent passengers were correctly wearing N95 masks if that is really how transmission works.

Here in BC we've had a number of cases of care home workers testing positive for covid but causing little to no transmission to the residents (“Since the public health emergency was declared, Fraser Health has seen limited to no transmission of COVID-19 in facilities that have had outbreaks.” - source). Presumably because they are following better protocols now like using PPE, not moving between facilities, testing, and staying home when ill. This is much more important than making sure that the plumbers who work in the facilities don't go out to restaurants, although I guess care homes could ask plumbers to test and/or isolate before working if they wanted.

As I said, if you have to go to the doctor--actually go as opposed to "zoom"--or some other unavoidable trip, you have to get there somehow. If you don't have a car, that means Uber or a taxi. "Hopefully" is right. They likely were NOT wearing N95s. Those are hard to get still (although I have and wear them--but most people, especially the younger ones, don't because they aren't very stylish).

If Canada had 10 times the population it has--as the US does--it would have good nursing homes and bad ones (and good governors who, unlike New York's, don't require the readmission of infected residents, as well as bad ones) like the US has.

Please don't try to instruct me on what is important. Ideally, the best practices would include "point of care" testing of everyone entering the nursing home from outside as well as strict isolation of residents and so on. Some are coming fairly close now, though it just isn't possible all the time and everywhere. And a few more months of restrictions on the hedonism of the young to avoid so many deaths won't hurt them.

Canada does have bad care homes. Some had a fatality rate of about 10%. 80% of our total deaths were in care homes. Some managed to control outbreaks and some didn't.

The shutdown is hurting people a lot due to lost jobs, missed school, etc. Expect suicide rates, rates of abuse, and so on to be up in 2020. Dr. Scott Atlas' analysis of the cost of shutdown pegs the deaths due to lost employment in the US at 7,200 per month. It is wrong to present the cost of lockdown type measures as being only in dollars or needless hedonism, although I think dollars and hedonism have value too. Otherwise people wouldn't care about them.

Sweden has received a lot of attention due to its relatively light COVID-19 regulations, but Scandinavia as a whole has placed a higher value on "normalcy" than the English-speaking world during this pandemic.

I was in Copenhagen in late July, and the city was up and running in a similar fashion to Stockholm. There were mild distancing rules in restaurants (i.e. blocked-off tables) but I can count the number of masks I saw in a week on two hands (and this was a busy week, with a lot of travel all across the inner city).

Denmark is perhaps the real success story of the region, with a very brief lockdown at the height of the initial spread followed by a controlled re-opening whose focus was the return of normal life (and not "the new normal" or "normal with a vaccine" -- normalcy now).

That said, the national view is perhaps not granular enough to account for what actually happened. After all, Skåne is right across the water from Copenhagen, and is home to the immigration-heavy city of Malmö (COVID-19 was overrepresented in immigrant communities across Scandinavia, possibly due to more crowded housing and more intergenerational households). Skåne, however, performed better than both Denmark as a whole and Sweden as a whole.

Sweden's issue was its care homes, which are a longstanding political issue due to underfunding and poor management. The death rate here came predominantly from these sites, and not people running errands in Stockholm who would have been fine if there had been lockdowns. The reason that Stockholm was hit so hard seems to have a lot to do with the fact that Stockholm County's annual spring holiday, which saw much travel to Northern Italy and Iran, coincided perfectly with the virus' initial spread in those regions.

In truth, all Scandinavian countries have placed a higher value on "normal life" than have the Anglo countries, which seem to have transitioned from "lockdown as an effort to avoid health system overburdening" to "lockdown as a norm until a vaccine is found".

There is lots of outdoor opera in Italy. The arena in Verona is hosting its normal season now. But it would not be anywhere near socially distanced enough for your liking, inside the arena or in the piazza surrounding it.

It still doesn't make sense to me though that nobody is getting COVID19 there. Do you think this situation will last long-term? I'm half Danish and my friends over there seem to give zero shits at this point. I see packed parties, nightclubs operating, crowded canals and zero--I mean zero--masks...basically everything that would get one socially ostracized right now in the USA, they're doing all over social media. Danes also don't believe in the effectiveness of masks. I just fear that they've leaned so into this normal, that they are going to be shell-shocked if there is a massive spread again.

Sweden has likely reached herd immunity. There are almost no covid deaths anymore.





https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sw...-chart-matters



The secret of Sweden’s success is that its experts settled on a strategy that was realistic, sustainable and science-based. The intention was never to “fight” the virus which is among the most contagious infections in the last century, but to protect the old and vulnerable while allowing the young, low-risk people to circulate, contract the virus, and develop the antibodies they’d need to fight similar pathogens in the future. It’s clear now that that was the best approach. And while Sweden could still experience sporadic outbreaks that might kill another 2 to 300 people, any recurrence of the infection in the Fall or Winter will not be a dreaded “Second Wave”, but a much weaker flu-like event that will not overwhelm the public health system or kill thousands of people.
As we’ve noted before, the media has been particularly vicious in their criticism of Sweden’s approach which they’ve characterized as overly “relaxed.” Check out this sampling of recent headlines:
Sweden becomes an example of how not to handle COVID-19, CBS News...



Sweden’s coronavirus death toll is now approaching zero,...

As you can see, the media has taken a very hardline with Sweden. But, why? What has Sweden done that has provoked such a hostile response?
Nothing, really, they’ve just shrugged off the repressive stay-at-home orders and pursued their own independent policy. The Swedish approach stands in stark contrast to the lockdowns which are costly, ineffective and socially damaging. Here’s an excerpt from an article at The Evening Standard that underscores these very points:
“Lockdowns made little difference to the number of people who have died from coronavirus, a study has claimed. Researchers from the University of Toronto and University of Texas found that whether a country was locked down or not was “not associated” with the Covid-19 death rate.
Experts compared mortality rates and cases in 50 badly-hit countries up until May 1 and calculated that only 33 out of every million people had died from the virus…The study found that imposing lockdown measures succeeded in stopping hospitals becoming overwhelmed, but it did not translate into a significant reduction in deaths.
“Government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of Covid-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality,” the study, published in the Lancet online journal EClinicalMedicine, said.”
(“Coronavirus lockdown ‘made no difference to number of deaths but stopped hospitals being overwhelmed”, Evening Standard)

Bottom line: Lockdowns don’t work, but the media continues to support them. Why?
Because the media is owned by elites who see lockdowns as an effective way to exert greater control over the population. The real issue is power, not efficacy or saving lives. The Swedish model undermines this effort by providing a viable alternative that challenges lockdowns and leads countries out of crisis. That’s why Sweden has been treated with such open hostility, because elites see crisis management as a useful tool for making the structural changes they want to impose on the political and economic systems. Billionaire oligarchs do not see crises as ‘periods of intense disorder or distress’, but golden opportunities that can be exploited to their advantage.
Sweden is also criticized for its fatality rate which is higher than some but lower than others. As of today, the number Coronavirus deaths in Sweden is 5,667 which is considerably higher than its neighbors in Norway and Denmark but lower than Belgium, Italy, France, the UK and Spain. In other words, Sweden is somewhere in the middle of the pack. Interestingly, Sweden compares quite well to poorly-governed states in the US with similar-sized populations. Take a look:

Sweden: No Lockdown
Population of 10.2 million
Coronavirus deaths –5,667
Lockdown State#1: New York City (Democrat Governor, Andrew Cuomo)
Population– 8.3 million
Coronavirus deaths– 32,133 (5 and a half time more than Sweden with 2 million less people)
Lockdown State#2: New Jersey (another Democrat governor, Phil Murphy)
Population– 9.2 million (1 million less than Sweden)
Coronavirus deaths– 15,684 (nearly 3 times as many as Sweden with a smaller population.)
Lockdown State#3: Massachusetts (another Democrat Governor, Charlie Baker)
Population– 6.9 million #.3 million less than Sweden)
Coronavirus deaths– 8,380 (1 and a half times Sweden’s total with 3 million less people.)

These are the real Coronavirus losers, the three states that are run by liberal governors who imposed counterproductive lockdowns that collapsed their economies, killed tens of thousands of people, and did nothing to staunch the spread of the infection. In contrast, Sweden has weathered the storm nicely, built up the public’s innate immunity and put the economy back on the road to recovery. Take a look:
“Unlike most European countries, Sweden didn’t impose strict lockdown measures. Now it’s reaping the rewards — economically speaking, at least. A report from Capital Economics published on Tuesday found that the Swedish economy was the least harmed in Europe, describing it as the “best of a bad bunch.”
Though Sweden was not immune to the pandemic’s economic impact, it was the only major economy to grow in the first quarter of the year, the report noted….

…

As the report from Business Insider confirms, the Swedish economy “was the least harmed in Europe”, the “best of the bunch” (and) “the only major economy to grow in the first quarter of the year, the report.” Sweden is progressively ramping up its activity while the United States is still stuck in the mud. The Times is deliberately misleading its readers to continue its war on Sweden. That’s not journalism, it’s agenda-driven propaganda.
Did you know that the Swedish infectious disease expert Johan Giesecke warned leaders in the lockdown countries that cases and deaths would rise sharply when the lockdowns were lifted?
One would assume that our leaders would be smart enough to figure that out before hand and tweak the policy accordingly, but that didn’t happen. So, now, when Fall rolls around and the deaths begin to mount, then what??
Then the state governors will re-impose the same onerous restrictions that were in place before which will increase unemployment and intensify the deepening economic slump. Meanwhile, Sweden will be in the process of rebooting its economy, putting people back to work, and enjoying the benefits that accrue from independent thinking and strong leadership. This is from an article at Reuters:
“Sweden’s top epidemiologist said on Tuesday a rapid decline in new critical COVID-19 cases alongside slowing death rates indicated that Sweden’s strategy for slowing the epidemic… was working. Chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell of the public health agency said a rapid slowdown in the spread of the virus indicated very strongly that Sweden had reached relatively widespread immunity…
“It really is yet another sign that the Swedish strategy is working,” Tegnell said. It is possible to slow contagion fast with the measures we are taking in Sweden.”(“Swedish epidemiology boss says questioned COVID-19 strategy seems to be working”, Reuters)


Of course “it’s working”. Why wouldn’t it work? Our species has survived thousands of years thanks to our complex and adaptive immunity system that develops protective antibodies and killer T-cells that fight off flues, viruses and all-manner of harmful infectious diseases with or without vaccines. This is the brilliance of Sweden’s strategy, to allow the infection to spread among the country’s healthier, low-risk members until the virus petered-out from lack of any new hosts.
And now the strategy has worked. Common sense has prevailed. This is from Bloomberg News:
“Sweden’s top health authority says people who have had the novel coronavirus are likely to be immune for at least six months after being infected, whether they’ve developed antibodies or not….A recent study from King’s College London showed that the level of antibodies may drop to a degree that makes them undetectable as soon as three months after infection. However, the body also mounts other forms of immunity responses, including from so-called T-cells, which appear to play an important role in protecting against reinfection with Covid-19.
Research from Sweden’s Karolinska Institute has indicated that about twice as many people infected by Covid-19 have developed a T-cell mediated immunity response as those who have a detectable level of antibodies.
“The risk of being reinfected and of transmitting the disease to other people is probably very close to zero,” Tegnell said. ..” Sweden “probably” has achieved a fairly high rate of immunity, which he predicts will protect his country from new outbreaks.
“The upshot is that the epidemic is now slowing down very drastically, in a way that I think few of us would have thought a few weeks ago,” he said. ”(“Sweden Says Covid Immunity Can Last 6 Months After Infection”, Bloomberg)
What does it all mean?
It means that probably only 1 in every 7 people will contract the virus regardless of their exposure. It means that a greater portion of the population have natural immunity than we thought. It means that antibody testing does not tell the whole story but that T-cells and cross-immunity also prevent transmission to otherwise healthy people. It means that Covid-19 is not the Black Plague that’s going to live up to the manipulative hype that has been used to precipitate the biggest social, economic and political crisis of the last century. It means that the idiot lockdowns did not prevent new cases and deaths but merely postponed them to a later date.
It means that Sweden was on the right track from the very beginning and is rapidly returning to normal while the US sinks deeper into a crisis of its own making.

what the fuck this is fucking wild. it’s like theres like no cultural in-between space in america. we cant just wear masks if needed and space out but otherwise behave normally.

it’s either apocalyptic retreat or full blown death-drive.

I have no idea if it will last. This pandemic is a once-in-a-lifetime event for me, as it is for most of us, and I have only ever experienced such a thing here.

I will note that I think the cultural symbolism is a bit flipped here. I gather than in the US, Canada and UK, lockdown skepticism has a kind of right-populist "truck nutz" reputation. Here in Stockholm, however, Södermalm is buzzing and most people think we basically did the right thing, although most condemn care home management.

At a table (packed patio with only totem distancing in Skånegatan, Södermalm) consisting of an engineer, an architect, an acrobat and an art professor last night, it was my stories of Canadian relatives' quarantine experiences that brought facial expressions of silent criticism ("hmm sounds like a bit much"). In Toronto, I think such gestures would be reserved for people not wearing masks indoors.

If the virus begins to spread in such a fashion that living a normal life means taking on an unreasonable risk of death, I am sure that Söder and similar places will go quiet, although how much of that will be voluntary and how much will be mandated, I don't know.

There really does seem to be a cultural apprehension about the kind of practices that are common elsewhere. Although Sweden was the most laissez-faire of the countries, none of the three Scandinavian states were ever really willing to speak of a "new normal".

On the above, Sweden and Tegnell don't really fit into the US political debate over this. He might be skeptical about masks and lockdowns, but he also has always championed a lot of voluntary behaviour changes. There isn't a US figure who really sounds like him right now. He is a total creation of Swedish social-democratic technocracy, and really pretty foreign to the US and Anglo world.

The more I read about epidemiology, the more I realise that Anders Tegnell is very conventional for the field. The nature of his connection to the government is such that he has a lot of latitude to emphasise (his view of) science over politics. He is also stubborn as a mule, like most Swedish scientists and engineers.

if the classic imperial cycle is any sort of roadmap perhaps this is the aperitif.

but to think like that also closes your world in ways that you don’t even realize. i’m guilty of being an obsessive apocalyptist.

https://www.wallpaperup.com/uploads/...46246a-700.jpg

Blow to luxury market from Covid worse than impact of 9/11

https://s14.therealdeal.com/trd/up/2...11-705x439.jpg

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1. The Real Deal
2. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-1...le_email_share

That said, the rumour of possible herd immunity, at least in Stockholm, has reached the popular consciousness.

There’s lots of outdoor opera in the US in summer also, but not many venues have the seating capacity to have a “usual” number of fans (a couple of thousand) present and still maintain “social distancing”. So either the performances can’t take place as usual or only a few people can attend this year. The Circus Maximus is a pretty big arena. So would be opera in a modern football stadium but I don’t know of any company doing that.

I myself am wondering what’s going on in places from Wuhan to Phoenix. Life has pretty much returned to normal in Wuhan. Phoenix, like Stockholm, never imposed severe lockdown measures. Yet Wuhan has little or no virus activity and it’s now dramatically declining in Arizona.

All these places like Italy and New York that had dramatic, uncontrolled outbreaks and now have unusually low levels of new cases suggest that enough of the population became immune to suppress the virus. If calling it “herd immunity” bothers you, don’t. But the virus doesn’t just go away and these places currently do not have stricter control measures than others—if anything, some of them are now more open.

So to me anyway, it’s a puzzle UNLESS you consider the possibility that enough people are immune that viral spread is suppressed.

What’s different is mainly that in Sweden the government and politicians are talking openly about all the considerations going into their decisions and about why they are chosing certain options rather than others. This is unique. In other countries, including the US, we are hearing from virologists and epidemiologists we believe government leaders are listening to but we don’t know if they are listening to people with any other perspective and to what degree they are considering other factors.

Tegnell may be more unique than you give him credit for being in that he seems to be himself considering more than just the best way to limit virus spread. He seems to recognize the trade-offs in the most extreme measures to suppress the virus—in effect he is doing what the leaders should be doing but the leaders are then accepting his synthesis.

Charlie Baker, the Governor of Massachusetts, is actually Republican. But he is center-left, more appropriately a RINO.

I think that there is some inherent immunity in the population, and that something akin to herd immunity can be achieved at lower infection rates than expected.

If the media were not so hell bent on scaring every body’s pants off and trying to win an election for one side, there could be more coverage of exactly what you are observing

Italy is starting to tick up again. They have about 5-10x more cases per day now than they did a month ago. And it's hard to compare other places in the U.S. to New York because so much is still closed here. Almost nothing that requires people to be indoors has been allowed to reopen.

There’s probably a small uptick due to summer holidays, but infection rates are still very low. Even if it is a “5-10x” increase it’s off a very low base. I have been living in Italy for 5 weeks now, by the way.