Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8931341)

Nearly 6% of the known US cases have died. Your "99.9" is BS and you know it.

The real number is certainly lower than 6% because we miss a large percentage of cases due to lack of testing, and probably do catch most deaths. But the point remains whether it's actually 1% or 5%.

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 8931345)

You have absolutely zero evidence that the mortality rate of this infection is between 1-5% and if you are claiming so then you are pulling that out of your ass.

Nobody knows, we will only know in the future upon retrospect after a long, hard look at years of data.

But my guess is that it will be well south of 1%. A death rate of 1% is ludicrous and based on the most pessimistic perspective

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 8931347)

It doesn't really matter what the mortality rate is, but it's obviously not "well south of 1%".

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 8931347)

It doesn't really matter what the mortality rate is

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 8931477)

Good point. 0.1%, 1%, 10%, 20%, 40%...........its all the same :uhh:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 8931481)

Just for comparison, Smallpox’s case mortality rate was estimated to be 30%. Now that, my friend, is a virus worthy of running and hiding from.

As for Covid? Deadlier than Influenza, it appears, but way way way closer to that than a real killer like Smallpox was.

Originally Posted by pdxtex (Post 8931518)

The CDC estimates the mortality rate for all cases is .4%
Point 4......virulent pathogen with 99.6% survival rate. Okay...

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 8931584)

I read somewhere the virus is mutating and in the process becoming more infectious but less lethal, the goal of any virus; not to kill its hosts and to spread even more effectively. The earlier strains probably had a much higher death rate.

Originally Posted by glowrock (Post 8931083)

A few quick points here:

1) I swear, the self-righteous, selfish, "Me! Me! Me!" attitude I've been reading by so many fellow SSPers here is truly disgusting! All this whining about not being able to get your hair cut, go to a bar, sit inside restaurants, go to the gym, etc... What about the freaking employees of those establishments? Does anyone care about their health and safety?

2) It's abundantly clear that the average income level of most SSPers is 3-5x the national/world average, apparently. All this talk about huge bonuses and commissions, paying cash for homes, huge down payments, etc... Wow, it's like we're on another goddamned planet from most people!

3) As many of you know, I've gone from working in a professional industry (oil & gas services) to retail (specifically a huge liquor store chain). Let's just say that the last couple of months have been insane for me, both in terms of ever-changing rules and regulations to of course a massive increase in sales. It's gotten to the point where the lines outside to get in have as many people as those in the store! I deal with hundreds of people every single day, not sure if any of them are carriers of COVID-19. Obviously the masks help greatly in preventing the spread from one person to another, but there's still a certain level of risk in what I do right now.

4) To everyone saying to open everything now, get rid of social distancing, etc... How many new cases/deaths are acceptable to you? You really think restaurants should be back to being packed? Bars packed to the gills three-deep? No distancing at all? With no real treatment and no vaccine? Seriously? I'm not saying a vaccine is the be all end all here, but a reasonable treatment protocol that reduces severity of the illness would be nice!

5) As a retail/service worker for the last year or two, I've seen the good, bad and ugliest of people's behaviors. If anything, I truly hope that there is a much greater appreciation for the people that allow all of you bitching and moaning about not being able to do everything you want right now on a freaking whim now and into the future! Be thankful that there are still delivery drivers, cashiers, warehouse/stockers, restaurant employees, postal carriers, transit employees, etc., (and of course our amazing nurses!) that are risking their own safety by dealing with the public right now!

6) I still can't get over the absolute narcissism and selfish behaviors by so many here. It makes me sick to my goddamned stomach. :(

Aaron (Glowrock)

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8931341)

Nearly 6% of the known US cases have died. Your "99.9" is BS and you know it.

The real number is certainly lower than 6% because we miss a large percentage of cases due to lack of testing, and probably do catch most deaths. But the point remains whether it's actually 1% or 5%.

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 8931477)

Good point. 0.1%, 1%, 10%, 20%, 40%...........its all the same :uhh:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8931797)

I haven't see any article or researcher on TV who thinks the death rate is anything over 1%.

Bro, I feel like you are stuck in mid-March when we had no idea what was going on and we were scared and just wanted ACTION. It's fine to come out now...

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 8931779)

All viruses mutate and it would make sense that this is the direction of travel. That’s why we have so many endemic viruses that cause the common cold.

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8932024)

I should have said "more like 1%." It's still far more realistic than the "0.1" that was suggested out of either ignorance or hyperbole.

The recent antibody studies suggesting numbers like 0.4% are encouraging. There's debate over whether they're accurate enough to give a clear picture on infection rates.

Let's say it's 0.4% and we get to 70% infection in the US. That's just 942,000 US deaths if we open things up and don't find a vaccine or effective treatment.

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8932033)

First of all, the "common cold" is not a disease but a syndrome caused by many viruses (guesses now are perhaps 200 different ones). There are at least 4 main unrelated groups: coronaviruses, rhinoviruses, parainfluenze viruses and respiratory syncitial viruses. Within these groups, there are a number of different distinct viruses (as there are at least 2 distinct SARS-CoV viruses). It's possible that back somewhere they may have a common ancestor, but within our period of observing them they are not mutations one of the other. And, indeed, by one estimate at least 20-30% of "colds" are caused by totally unidentified viruses.