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-   -   How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=242036)

the urban politician Nov 3, 2020 4:37 PM

^ Is suicide an irrational thought? Interesting question.

Suicide may be a rational decision in some, highly select scenarios (just for the sake of argument).

For example:

1. You are an astronaut stuck in space and are about to run out of oxygen
2. You are a soldier about to be captured by an enemy that is planning to torture you for information

the urban politician Nov 3, 2020 4:50 PM

To be, or not to be, that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take Arms against a Sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them: to die, to sleep;
No more; and by a sleep, to say we end
The heart-ache, and the thousand natural shocks
That Flesh is heir to? 'Tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wished. To die, to sleep,
To sleep, perchance to Dream; aye, there's the rub,
For in that sleep of death, what dreams may come,
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
Must give us pause. There's the respect
That makes Calamity of so long life:
For who would bear the Whips and Scorns of time,
The Oppressor's wrong, the proud man's Contumely,
The pangs of dispised Love, the Law’s delay,
The insolence of Office, and the spurns
That patient merit of th'unworthy takes,
When he himself might his Quietus make
With a bare Bodkin? Who would Fardels bear, [F: these Fardels]
To grunt and sweat under a weary life,
But that the dread of something after death,
The undiscovered country, from whose bourn
No traveller returns, puzzles the will,
And makes us rather bear those ills we have,
Than fly to others that we know not of?

iheartthed Nov 3, 2020 4:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 9093907)
^ Is suicide an irrational thought? Interesting question.

Suicide may be a rational decision in some, highly select scenarios (just for the sake of argument).

For example:

1. You are an astronaut stuck in space and are about to run out of oxygen
2. You are a soldier about to be captured by an enemy that is planning to torture you for information

In this context, it's obviously not rational. Yes, there are rational scenarios for suicide, but none of them include being temporarily inconvenienced due to a public health emergency.

suburbanite Nov 3, 2020 5:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 9093931)
In this context, it's obviously not rational. Yes, there are rational scenarios for suicide, but none of them include being temporarily inconvenienced due to a public health emergency.

What about financial ruin?

Acajack Nov 3, 2020 5:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 9093922)
To be, or not to be, that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take Arms against a Sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them: to die, to sleep;
No more; and by a sleep, to say we end
The heart-ache, and the thousand natural shocks
That Flesh is heir to? 'Tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wished. To die, to sleep,
To sleep, perchance to Dream; aye, there's the rub,
For in that sleep of death, what dreams may come,
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
Must give us pause. There's the respect
That makes Calamity of so long life:
For who would bear the Whips and Scorns of time,
The Oppressor's wrong, the proud man's Contumely,
The pangs of dispised Love, the Law’s delay,
The insolence of Office, and the spurns
That patient merit of th'unworthy takes,
When he himself might his Quietus make
With a bare Bodkin? Who would Fardels bear, [F: these Fardels]
To grunt and sweat under a weary life,
But that the dread of something after death,
The undiscovered country, from whose bourn
No traveller returns, puzzles the will,
And makes us rather bear those ills we have,
Than fly to others that we know not of?

Holy shit! Did you just write that? Here on SSP? That's awesome! :haha:

MolsonExport Nov 3, 2020 5:23 PM

Erm, that is Hamlet's soliloquy. All but the last few lines, of which these latter lines are taken from a modern translation thereof.
https://www.litcharts.com/blog/shake...letssoliloquy/

Acajack Nov 3, 2020 5:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MolsonExport (Post 9093966)
Erm, that is Hamlet's soliloquy. All but the last few lines, of which these latter lines are taken from a modern translation thereof.
https://www.litcharts.com/blog/shake...letssoliloquy/

Yeah, I know. I had to memorize it in high school.

I was an Ontario Scholar back in the day (referenced in another thread recently), and as a result got 100 bucks for my first year of university.

iheartthed Nov 3, 2020 5:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suburbanite (Post 9093941)
What about financial ruin?

That's not a temporary inconvenience, but yes, suicide in response to financial ruin is probably irrational. Poor is not a permanent condition. Dead is.

Life insurance policies are written to disincentivize suicide as a rational solution to financial strain. So if the suicide does not directly solve the financial problem, what's the point? The suicide has probably created additional strain on the people left behind to clean up the mess, so at best it is irrational and at worst it is selfish (but maybe rational in that case).

MolsonExport Nov 3, 2020 5:38 PM

100 bucks...not quite enough to get that luxury sports car to drive onto campus with. :youmad:

Acajack Nov 3, 2020 5:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MolsonExport (Post 9093996)
100 bucks...not quite enough to get that luxury sports car to drive onto campus with. :youmad:

Nice catch! :)

LA21st Nov 3, 2020 5:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9093561)
What extra time? Especially during daylight hours.

Life is endless video meetings (but nothing actually gets done - more work and less income), with no release. The weather here is going to be terrible for the next 5 months so there is nothing enjoyable to do outside. And everything from shopping to working out takes much longer.

Obviously we dont all have the same situation. I'm just saying you CAN find something good. It's not entirely bad if you look for it.

I miss traveling and going to the movies/bars/seeing friends like crazy but I use that same time for fitness and other important projects.

JManc Nov 3, 2020 5:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suburbanite (Post 9093941)
What about financial ruin?

Financial ruin is terrible but worth taking your own life over? I'm thinking no. Plenty of examples of people who lost everything and pushed forward. Some rebuilt, others accepted their new humbler reality.

xzmattzx Nov 3, 2020 6:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliNative (Post 9093582)
If we get the R0 (viral spread rate) under one, it will go away. The more under one we get it the quicker it goes away. An R0 of one means on average, a sick person infects one other. Cases are static. An R0 of two means that on average a sick person infects two people. Exponential growth. Right now, many states are above one, so we have more cases every week. It is science and math folks.

How do we get the R0 under one? Masks, social distancing and contact tracing. Short term sacrifice, long term gain. PEOPLE (INCLUDING MAGAS), STOP WHINING & STOP DENYING MEDICAL SCIENCE AND PUT ON MASKS. The more people that wear masks, the R0 goes under one & cases dwindle. The countries that did are now back to normal, places like Japan, New Zealand etc. Science.

I had read from someone in Stockholm on another message board that I like to visit that Sweden had its R0 under 1 in October. I do not know where it is now.

suburbanite Nov 3, 2020 6:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 9094033)
Financial ruin is terrible but worth taking your own life over? I'm thinking no. Plenty of examples of people who lost everything and pushed forward. Some rebuilt, others accepted their new humbler reality.

I'd agree in most instances. I'm just playing devil's advocate to the point that the only thing people are complaining about is being bored and uncomfortable. People's life work is being lost, opportunities possibly forever out of reach. These are serious concerns to balance with our current strategies. There's probably a lot of children or young people out there who's lives are forever altered due to years of economic damage. Kids who won't go to college because of parent's lost earnings, families torn apart, etc.

I don't care (well I care but it's an easy sacrifice) to not go to an indoor bar or a concert for a couple years. I do care about how we've so quickly and decisively decided that millions of people on a lower economic rung shouldn't really have any control over their ability to make a living and support their families.

Acajack Nov 3, 2020 6:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 9094033)
Financial ruin is terrible but worth taking your own life over? I'm thinking no. Plenty of examples of people who lost everything and pushed forward. Some rebuilt, others accepted their new humbler reality.

Losing "everything" financially often entails losing a lot more than just the material. Many people definitely lose their spouse, their friends and even their kids (in terms of having them as a sustained presence in their lives).

iheartthed Nov 3, 2020 6:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suburbanite (Post 9094125)
I'd agree in most instances. I'm just playing devil's advocate to the point that the only thing people are complaining about is being bored and uncomfortable. People's life work is being lost, opportunities possibly forever out of reach. These are serious concerns to balance with our current strategies. There's probably a lot of children or young people out there who's lives are forever altered due to years of economic damage. Kids who won't go to college because of parent's lost earnings, families torn apart, etc.

I don't care (well I care but it's an easy sacrifice) to not go to an indoor bar or a concert for a couple years. I do care about how we've so quickly and decisively decided that millions of people on a lower economic rung shouldn't really have any control over their ability to make a living and support their families.

I hope I don't sound like I'm not sympathetic to people who are experiencing financial stress. Those grievances are real, even if the academic discussion about what qualifies as irrational doesn't cover it. But certain people in this thread are not complaining about loss of livelihoods. They're complaining about having to temporarily adjust their social lives in response to a public health emergency.

the urban politician Nov 3, 2020 7:03 PM

In a nutshell, the problem is that when people are bringing up this concern:

Quote:

People's life work is being lost, opportunities possibly forever out of reach.
They are often met derisively with this same response:

Quote:

They're complaining about having to temporarily adjust their social lives in response to a public health emergency.
Thus the resentment grows, and people refuse to follow guidelines. And no amount of shaming is going to change their minds...

suburbanite Nov 3, 2020 7:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 9094137)
I hope I don't sound like I'm not sympathetic to people who are experiencing financial stress. Those grievances are real, even if the academic discussion about what qualifies as irrational doesn't cover it. But certain people in this thread are not complaining about loss of livelihoods. They're complaining about having to temporarily adjust their social lives in response to a public health emergency.

They're two sides of the same coin though, those seeking out "fun" and the millions of people who make a living supplying it. Can't have one without the other.

I guess the litmus test for where a person's actual priorities lie is if you could propose a theoretical situation where bars and social events were closed down, but all the employees were provided safe, isolated work in some sort of "new deal" type situation. I'd be pretty happy not worrying that my friends who serve or bartend are on their way to economic catastrophe, and could live without my preferred social activities for another year.

JManc Nov 3, 2020 7:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 9094137)
I hope I don't sound like I'm not sympathetic to people who are experiencing financial stress. Those grievances are real, even if the academic discussion about what qualifies as irrational doesn't cover it. But certain people in this thread are not complaining about loss of livelihoods. They're complaining about having to temporarily adjust their social lives in response to a public health emergency.

Right now, 10023's grievances seem trivial but if we're still having this conversation a year or two from now, I don't think they will come across as so frivolous. So far, we've been inconvenienced and have had to make adjustments for the last 7-8 months which isn't fun but in the grand scheme of things, not that much of a disruption. The 'temporary' nature is what's the biggest unknown. This could last a few more months or linger on for years. A vaccine won't be 100% effective and not everyone is going to rush out and get it so early on. The social and economic implications of this dragging on are not good.

Stay Stoked Brah Nov 3, 2020 7:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9093561)
What extra time? Especially during daylight hours.

Life is endless video meetings (but nothing actually gets done - more work and less income), with no release. The weather here is going to be terrible for the next 5 months so there is nothing enjoyable to do outside. And everything from shopping to working out takes much longer.

do endless video meetings from Portugal, Spain or Morocco. it's only a 2.5-3 hour flight to London.

Stay Stoked Brah Nov 3, 2020 7:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 9094161)
Right now, 10023's grievances seem trivial but if we're still having this conversation a year or two from now, I don't think they will come across as so frivolous. So far, we've been inconvenienced and have had to make adjustments for the last 7-8 months which isn't fun but in the grand scheme of things, not that much of a disruption. The 'temporary' nature is what's the biggest unknown. This could last a few more months or linger on for years. A vaccine won't be 100% effective and not everyone is going to rush out and get it so early on. The social and economic implications of this dragging on are not good.

the real pain and agony hasn't even hit yet. that was postponed with PPP and moratoriums on rent payments. landlords and small business owners are on the brink now. if congress waits to pass relief until January and the vaccine isn't available and states, counties, cities refuse to reopen that's when the real shit hits the fan.

iheartthed Nov 3, 2020 7:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suburbanite (Post 9094147)
They're two sides of the same coin though, those seeking out "fun" and the millions of people who make a living supplying it. Can't have one without the other.

I guess the litmus test for where a person's actual priorities lie is if you could propose a theoretical situation where bars and social events were closed down, but all the employees were provided safe, isolated work in some sort of "new deal" type situation. I'd be pretty happy not worrying that my friends who serve or bartend are on their way to economic catastrophe, and could live without my preferred social activities for another year.

I am speaking specifically about people who are whining about having to temporarily alter their social lives. I have temporarily altered my social life just as much as anyone, but I do not whine about my personal sacrifices as if we all aren't sacrificing. People have put off seeing friends and relatives, missed seeing dying relatives (I did), missed graduations (happened to two of my relatives), postponed weddings (happened to close friends), missed once in a lifetime vacations, lost their jobs (happened to many people I know), and many other sacrifices. The only thing worse than experiencing the pandemic is living through it with morons that are prolonging it through their selfish behavior. And then those same morons start whining that bar hopping got taken away because they spent months acting irresponsibly.

mhays Nov 3, 2020 8:22 PM

Wish we had an upvote button iheartthed.

craigs Nov 3, 2020 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9093562)
If life were going to be like this going forward as a “new normal”, as some people say, I would put a bullet in my head tomorrow.

There is a difference between actually living and just existing.

https://i.imgflip.com/3jesqg.png
source

Buckeye Native 001 Nov 3, 2020 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 9094191)
I am speaking specifically about people who are whining about having to temporarily alter their social lives. I have temporarily altered my social life just as much as anyone, but I do not whine about my personal sacrifices as if we all aren't sacrificing. People have put off seeing friends and relatives, missed seeing dying relatives (I did), missed graduations (happened to two of my relatives), postponed weddings (happened to close friends), missed once in a lifetime vacations, lost their jobs (happened to many people I know), and many other sacrifices. The only thing worse than experiencing the pandemic is living through it with morons that are prolonging it through their selfish behavior. And then those same morons start whining that bar hopping got taken away because they spent months acting irresponsibly.

What boils down to, at least as I see it, is that a certain few here (and in real life) believe that their lives are more important and are worth more than others, so they should be given privileges and benefits at the expense of the rest of us (for what it's worth, yes, I am fat lard with a myriad of pre-existing conditions and I am also a municipal government employee, so I have some biases).

We keep dancing around it with histrionics and by pulling punches but I'm hell bent on getting some use out of my social science degree, so please bear with me.

Am I pissed that I had to postpone a vacation to New York City last month?

You bet.

Am I expecting/demanding that I be given some sort of special treatment (to the detriment of others who aren't as fortunate as me) because my plans were postponed?

Absolutely not.

We're trying to quantify what makes "life worth living" at the present moment (and will be for who knows how long), as if there's only one correct answer.

CaliNative Nov 4, 2020 1:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 9094146)
In a nutshell, the problem is that when people are bringing up this concern:



They are often met derisively with this same response:



Thus the resentment grows, and people refuse to follow guidelines. And no amount of shaming is going to change their minds...

The truth is that life & the economy WON'T get back to normal as long as the virus is spreading. The "open up" crowd ignores this fact. Bend the disease spread down, we can get closer to normal like many countries have done. Masks....use them!

the urban politician Nov 4, 2020 3:00 AM

^ I’ve been advocating for masking for a long time. People who refuse to mask are only making matters worse.

mousquet Nov 5, 2020 10:06 PM

Incredible... The Danes would've found out that minks carried and transmitted to humans a mutated version of the virus likely to alter the efficiency of upcoming vaccines.
Source: Fr media (Le Figaro)

These are minks.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...rican_Mink.jpg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mink

The Danes would be about to slaughter 17 million in their country.
I'm sure it breaks their hearts, but the cute little creature would just hold a bad mutation of the virus.
They are now closely watched over here as well.

That virus is officially the worst curse of my lifetime and yours as well. If anybody had told me about anything like it just 10 months ago, I wouldn't have believed them.

Acajack Nov 5, 2020 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mousquet (Post 9097462)
Incredible... The Danes would've found out that minks carried and transmitted to humans a mutated version of the virus likely to alter the efficiency of upcoming vaccines.
Source: Fr media (Le Figaro)

These are minks.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...rican_Mink.jpg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mink

The Danes would be about to slaughter 17 million in their country.
I'm sure it breaks their hearts, but the cute little creature would just hold a bad mutation of the virus.
They are now closely watched over here as well.

That virus is officially the worst curse of my lifetime and yours as well. If anybody had told me about anything like it just 10 months ago, I wouldn't have believed them.

Lots of people gonna have nice fur coats this winter!

But seriously, that's insane. As you say, this virus is just screwing with so many things. It's unbelievable.

chris08876 Nov 6, 2020 2:48 AM

In NJ:

https://aws1.discourse-cdn.com/busin...31449e1e5.jpeg

mrnyc Nov 6, 2020 11:41 PM

this infuriates me to no end. a nutty selfish nitwit puts everyone on public transit at risk because he won’t “wear a muzzle.” and contrary to popular reputation the actual real ny’ers nicely try to reason with him:


https://www.brooklynvegan.com/watch-...-masker-video/

Centropolis Nov 7, 2020 12:06 AM

cases going exponential it seems in missouri and illinois. illinois about to lock down and missouri just being like..

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018...oose-jumbo.gif

Centropolis Nov 7, 2020 1:42 PM

covid is going supernova in eastern missouri and illinois. theres cases all around me now and its affecting work schedules.

Centropolis Nov 7, 2020 1:47 PM

it’s interesting how everyone was freaking out in midwestern cities in april with small caseloads, and now that its going exponential i’m seeing busy bars.

this week its been in the 70s and even 80s in st louis...im guessing things will really get grim when cold weather comes.

Stay Stoked Brah Nov 9, 2020 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Centropolis (Post 9099117)
it’s interesting how everyone was freaking out in midwestern cities in april with small caseloads, and now that its going exponential i’m seeing busy bars.

this week its been in the 70s and even 80s in st louis...im guessing things will really get grim when cold weather comes.

that's because the FEAR has long since passed. back in march and April it was an O'Shit moment, people were dropping dead in China while walking down the street or shopping in a mall. that didn't turn out to be the case in the rest of the world. people can read and inform themselves to make their own decisions and the people now know this is only harmful to really sick, old people. the rest of us are asymptomatic, or come down with flu like symptoms.

Stay Stoked Brah Nov 9, 2020 2:14 PM

Pfizer vaccine 90%+ effective! :banana:
Dow Jones futures are up 1,700! :awesome:

the urban politician Nov 9, 2020 2:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah (Post 9100750)
Pfizer vaccine 90%+ effective! :banana:
Dow Jones futures are up 1,700! :awesome:

To answer the question of this thread:

How is COVID impacting my life in my city?

Well, if the above news pans out, then my answer will be:

NOT

FUCKING

AT

ALL!!!!!!!!


:cheers:

chris08876 Nov 9, 2020 7:27 PM

https://aws1.discourse-cdn.com/busin...aaa3a05e09.png

mrnyc Nov 10, 2020 9:04 PM

cdc now recs this thanksgiving to be more like the o.g. turkey day with the natives and pilgrims, outside!



CDC releases updated Thanksgiving guidelines focusing on small household gatherings
By FOX 29 Staff
Published 7 hours ago
Coronavirus
FOX 29 Philadelphia

Hosting the gathering outdoors, rather than indoors, as much as possible and requiring guests to wear masks when they aren't eating or drinking is also encouraged.

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/cdc-rele...old-gatherings

mrnyc Nov 10, 2020 11:57 PM

80% of coronas come from a handful of places:


https://nypost.com/2020/11/10/new-st...read-covid-19/

chris08876 Nov 12, 2020 10:16 PM

https://aws1.discourse-cdn.com/busin...b0d9311cdd.png

chris08876 Nov 13, 2020 1:30 AM

Chicago issues stay-at-home advisory and tells residents to cancel traditional Thanksgiving celebrations

Quote:

Thanksgiving typically means two things: lots of food and lots of family time. But this year, with Covid-19 numbers soaring, the city of Chicago would prefer if its residents nixed the latter.

As cases of Covid-19 continue to rise in the city, Chicago has issued a stay-at-home advisory -- encouraging residents to stay home and only leave for school, work or other essential needs, according to a news release issued Thursday. That includes seeking medical care, grocery shopping and picking up food.

The order, which begins Monday, extends through Thanksgiving festivities. Residents are "strongly advised" to not have guests in their homes outside of essential workers -- even family and close friends.

"Chicago has reached a critical point in the second surge of COVID-19, demanding that we undertake this multi-faceted and comprehensive effort to stop the virus in its tracks," said Mayor Lori Lightfoot in the release.

"The gains we have made this past year have been the result of our willingness to work together. Even in this difficult moment, we will continue to unite as we always have for our city in order to halt the rise we're seeing, shake out of the fatigue we've been experiencing, and make the crucial difference in what our future is going to look like."

The advisory, which will remain in place for 30 days, also imposes a limit on in-person meetings and social events, restricting them to just 10 people both inside and outside.
=================
CNN

the urban politician Nov 14, 2020 3:42 PM

10023’s last post here was Nov 6th.

He made some rather suicidal-ish comments prior to that.

Just sayin........ :shrug::(

If anybody knows him personally, I hope he’s alright

austlar1 Nov 14, 2020 9:33 PM

10023 deals in hyperbole. He is far too in love with himself to engage in suicidal self destruction. Maybe he just caught a case of covid and is temporarily indisposed.

Pedestrian Nov 15, 2020 1:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stay Stoked Brah (Post 9106540)
he was ganged up on and cyber bullied by some people on here because he disagreed with government response to covid ie lockdowns.

He wasn't "ganged up on". People just stated their disagreement and the fact that the only person with any real knowledge who, he might argue, agreed with his position was Tegnell in Sweden.

10023, for years now, has claimed expertise himself and yet has never been willing to explain the basis of his claim. The information he did drop suggested he is in finance, possibly dealing with pharma companies or some such.

But when someone posts that they basically want to involuntarily "lock down" people like me so they can party hearty without concern, don't tell me it is cyberbullying to call them what they are: narcicistic prigs.

Pedestrian Nov 15, 2020 1:52 AM

Quote:

Charts show why S.F. is at opposite end of coronavirus tier system from L.A., San Diego
Kellie Hwang
Nov. 12, 2020 Updated: Nov. 12, 2020 11:22 p.m.

Amid a recent coronavirus surge across the U.S., San Francisco occupies a unique place in California's least restrictive reopening tier — in sharp contrast with the state’s two largest counties, Los Angeles and San Diego.

San Francisco is one of only six among California’s 58 counties in the yellow “minimal” tier and the only large metro area in the state with that distinction.

But in Southern California, Los Angeles County has been stuck in the strictest purple “widespread” level since the state launched its tier system in August. It was joined there this week by San Diego, which was bumped back from the red “substantial” tier as cases have spiked.

Health officials cite many reasons for the surge, including social gatherings, household and workplace exposure, and travel. Young adults also continue to drive the virus. And health officials everywhere say that many people are becoming weary of health protocols and restrictions, and some are returning to normal pre-pandemic behavior despite the risks . . . .

The state’s reopening blueprint specifies what business and public activities are allowed at each tier, and health officials use it to dial back the spread of coronavirus when metrics indicate troubling trends. While counties must not exceed their tier limits, they may choose to loosen restrictions more slowly than their tier allows.

San Francisco’s cautious reopening approach, following an aggressive early pandemic response and strict safety protocols, can be credited for its position at the opposite end of the tier system from Los Angeles and San Diego counties.

Some of San Francisco’s restrictions are far more stringent than its yellow tier allows. The city has paused its reopening timeline several times since the summer, and this week shut down indoor dining in an effort to keep a lid on spiking coronavirus cases.

On Tuesday, in the state’s weekly assignments, 11 counties regressed to more restrictive tiers. They included Contra Costa in the Bay Area, which went backward from orange to red. Napa, Solano and Santa Clara are among the counties in danger of moving to tighter tiers next week.

[John Swartzberg, a UC Berkeley infectious disease expert] has some guesses as to why Southern California is struggling more with the coronavirus compared to the Bay Area.

“Culturally there is a big difference between Northern and Southern California,” he said. “There’s a much more politically homogeneous population in the Bay Area versus Los Angeles. And people tend to follow public health dicta more so here than Southern California.”

He also said San Francisco’s history with the AIDS crisis resulted in a strong relationship among public health agencies and the wider community.

Swartzberg also pointed to the higher number of migrant workers in Southern California, who have been hit particularly hard by the coronavirus.

Placement in California’s four-tier reopening system, launched in early September, is determined by three coronavirus metrics: rate of new cases (adjusted by the state to account for the amount of testing), rate of positive tests and a new equity metric. Under state rules, counties that fail to meet one or more of those thresholds for their tier for two consecutive weeks are moved back into the next most restrictive tier.

In early October, the state introduced a health equity metric that aims to ensure the positive test rates in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods don’t lag behind a county’s overall positive test rate.

San Francisco

When the state launched its tier system on Sept. 1, San Francisco was in the red “widespread” category. It moved to the orange tier on Sept. 29 and on Oct. 28 became the first urban California county to enter the yellow tier.

But officials said cases have surged 250% since Oct. 2. The rapid spike prompted city health officials on Tuesday to shutter all indoor dining, halt high school reopenings and lower capacity at gyms and movie theaters from 50% to 25%, effective after Friday.

Currently, San Francisco has an adjusted case rate of 2.5, which is the seven-day average of daily COVID-19 cases per population of 100,000, adjusted for the number of tests performed. The rate has risen since the past two tier assessments of 1.7, and before that, the case rate was 1.5. But this is still very low compared to 5.1, where San Francisco started in the new tier system.

While the adjusted case rate is slightly above the yellow-tier threshold, the county got a boost by meeting the state’s health equity metric. San Francisco also has some of the most widespread testing in the state.

One area where San Francisco has excelled is its positive test rate, which has not risen above 3% since the new monitoring system was put in place. For the past three weeks, it was below 1%, and while it has bumped up since then, it’s still at 1.1%.

And its health equity metric has also remained low: It began at 3% but dipped below 2% starting the week of Oct. 12, and stayed below the yellow tier threshold of 2.2% ever since.

Experts have pointed to a number of reasons that San Francisco has done particularly well compared to the rest of the state, including its early shelter-in-place order, stringent safety protocols including mask-wearing and social distancing, and slow, cautious approach to reopening.

Los Angeles County

Since the new monitoring system launched, Los Angeles County has remained firmly in the purple tier. Last week, it hit its highest daily case total since Aug. 15, and has reported an average of more than 2,000 new cases and 15 deaths per day, according to the L.A. Times Tracker.

In its first tier assessment, the county’s adjusted case rate was 9.6. Since then, it’s hovered between 7 and 8.1 — never low enough to get out of the purple tier. But the percent positive rate has stayed at orange “moderate” tier levels, with the latest at 3.8%. The health equity metric hit its peak at 6.8% on Nov. 2, and remains high at 6.5%.

Health officials have said for some time that social gatherings are driving the spread in Los Angeles County. One specific example is the many people who got together to watch the Dodgers and Lakers through their championship runs, both culminating in victories in October that led to fans spilling out in the streets to celebrate.

Like much of the state and country, health officials point to pandemic fatigue causing many to eschew safety protocols and restrictions.

San Diego County

San Diego County was the lone Southern California county in the red tier when the state rolled out its new system Sept. 1, with the rest of the south state solid purple. The case rate was rocky at first for San Diego County, but officials managed to get it under the threshold of 7.

Still, the rate continued to inch close to the purple-tier threshold for weeks, creeping above the line on Oct. 19 before going down briefly the following week. But on Nov. 2, the case rate was at 7.4, and shot up to 8.9 this week, prompting state officials to move the county into the purple tier. In San Diego County, weekly cases are up 70%.

Coronavirus spread at universities has been a lesser problem in California compared to other states, since many schools are operating virtually. But since San Diego State began allowing some in-person classes for the fall semester, more than 1,300 students have become infected.

The county reports that 58% of all cases are in individuals ages 20 to 49
. The 20- to 29-year-old age group had the highest number of cases at 25.1%, with the next highest at 18.4% in 30- to 39-year-olds. A disproportionate number of cases are attributed to the Latino community, accounting for 58.8% of cases but only 30.1% of the population.

The most recent COVID-19 Watch report for San Diego County on Nov. 10 shows the highest possible origin of recent exposure at 34.4% is the workplace, with the next highest bars and restaurants at 10.1%. Household exposure was also high at 34.2%, and travel-related exposure at 21.2% with 8.6% of respondents having visited Mexico, which the county notes is mostly work-related.

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Yuri Nov 15, 2020 2:56 PM

Brazil has finally left the 1,000 daily deaths average (from beginning of June up to ending of August) and now it's on 400's. 166,000 deaths in the country, 41,000 in São Paulo state.

Signs of second wave is emerging in the upper classes of São Paulo. For the first time since the peak, admissions on those high end hospitals start to grow.

The US reached 251,000 deaths. I didn't believe this could happen, but it seems the country might close the year with 300,000 deaths, which is insane.

This vaccine must come as soon as possible.

twister244 Nov 16, 2020 4:44 AM

Yeah..... It feels pretty bad all around right now. Part of me wants to try to get back into shape and go to the gym, but the other (stronger) part of me says I just need to wait. Here in Denver, we are operating at 25% capacity. I have been ordering a lot of takeout and delivery to help my local restaurants. The only thing about this "lockdown" phase that feels different is there's a dim flicker at the end of the tunnel that is slowly getting brighter as more vaccine news trickles in. Unlike in March/April when this was all still new and nobody knew how the timeline of this was going to unfold.

photoLith Nov 16, 2020 5:02 AM

^
Its going to be 2022 before anything starts to feel normal again.

iheartthed Nov 16, 2020 4:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by photoLith (Post 9107396)
^
Its going to be 2022 before anything starts to feel normal again.

Dr. Fauci said this morning that we should start to return to normal around April.


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