Brazil is on its worst hour, surpassing the July-August peak. Avg daily death above 1,000 for 35 days straight and ICUs are no longer available in several states.

São Paulo state reached today 60,000 deaths (for 45 million population). Currently 7,000 patients are on UCIs all over the state. In Brazil, the number of deaths is at 257k while 9 million doses have been administered so far.

Indoor stuff open now. At 25-50% capacity depending on the type.

Almost 20% vaccinated with 1 dose, and almost 10% fully vaccinated with 2 doses.

We are never going to be done with this for good. Covid will always be around. The vulnerable will get annual vaccines and everyone else will just deal with it.

Mutations generally head in the direction of more transmissible but less severe symptoms (which makes it more transmissible). These are the traits that are selected for by natural selection.

This is the problem. Our ultra-scared society will ALWAYS find a reason to give the government too much power.

New varients!

Memorial day weekend is coming, super spreader events!

Fourth of July, super spreader!

Halloween, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Christmas...

There will always be a reason for a politician to claim more power and for the media to scare healthy 35-year-olds into being afraid of having a drink with their friends.

I wear a mask in my building, in stores, in restaurants until I get my drink, and outside. As soon as the weather warms up, no more mask outside.

My question for folks; at what metric would you personally decide there is no need for a mask or any other mitigating activity? Is it 100% vaccinated (good luck with that), zero deaths (again, not gonna happen)?

^ Exactly.

Guess what folks - people are going to die of Covid next year. Maybe 40-50k in the US, which would be a similar number to seasonal flu. Are we going to have social distancing and masks and all the rest again?

If we do then I’m done with society.

No. The problem is that we have a global pandemic caused by a highly contagious virus. The government should do what it needs to do to stop the pandemic. And it shouldn't stop until it has been solved.

^ I think the point that many are making is that there is no such thing as "stopping" the pandemic.

Unless one has been living under a rock this whole time, it's pretty much accepted that COVID will never be eradicated. It's not going to be like Smallpox (nor does it need to be, it's not even a fraction as deadly--Smallpox carried a 30% mortality rate!!!!!!!).

We have to learn to live with the virus and vaccinate ourselves, perhaps yearly, just like Influenza. And I'm guessing you weren't hiding in your home with a mask on prior to 2020 when Influenza was infecting and killing people every winter. Did many here even get their yearly Influenza vaccine prior to 2020? I did.

So yes, we do need these mitigation measures for a while longer--masking, social distancing, etc because most people haven't been vaccinated. But once a majority of our population has either gotten COVID or the vaccine, these measures are no longer needed although the fringe elements of our society with severe germaphobia and personality disorders will probably continue to push them for a while longer.

We have not vaccinated ourselves. We can have this discussion after that has happened.

Another barrier to getting this pandemic under control:

Ignorance and mistrust.

I see countless patients and many of them just don't want to or plan to get the COVID vaccine. I try my best to convince them that it's very important, but some people just aren't having it. What a mess....sigh....

I know that if mask mandates are rescinded, I sure as hell won't go anywhere where there might be unmasked people until I'm vaccinated. (Fortunately, UChicago has actually increased masking requirements in the last few weeks due to the new variants, https://goforward.uchicago.edu/feb-10-email-update/).

What does "solved" mean?

r<1

No, we're all collectively having that conversation now, not later. Biden said yesterday we should all be able to get the vaccine by late May.... That's less than three months. It's time to start planning for the new post-pandemic world now. My condo is listed, and waiting for a renter. As soon as I have one, off to Chicago for a while.

You're going to see so many other people moving around and being nomads this summer after things open up.

^^This. This is the thing. Continue "mitigation measures for a while longer." And not even that much longer, at least in the US. Vaccination rates are up and every indication is that they will continue to rise. The current 7 day rolling average is at a 1.9 million doses per day. Even another 4-6 weeks will make a huge difference in the US. We are heading into a situation in late March, early April where it won't be a lack of vaccine, but a lack of manpower to give all the shots. We are so close. Let's not fuck it up (looking at you Texas).

And washing your hands, minimizing social contact with a wide swath of people, wearing a mask in appropriate situations really should not be that hard. It sucks, but let's work to make covid like the flu. You don't need to be a shut in. I am not and I have been very careful.

There is nothing to talk about until this is brought under control. If you loved the experience of this past year, then you're going to be in heaven if we jump the gun and declare this over only to revert back because we did so prematurely.

Yup. I'm pretty sure that the powers that be realize that the American public is about bursting at the seams now, ready for post-pandemic life after the vaccine. If they were hard to keep "under control" in 2020, it will be damn near impossible to do so in 2021.

So you're moving to Chicago? Awesome, where are you planning to move to?

It's a bit complicated. My company is tech-based, and we can do long-term remote work now. So, heading to Chicago until late Summer, then might hop across a few international locations this fall before coming back and doing Miami next winter. I have family in Chicago and have been visiting since I was a kid. It's basically my home away from home.

It's fine to talk about things, but not to do anything until we can rule out ill effects at a a sigma or two...

Maybe that was misstated. In regards to whether the government should be rolling back policy to mitigate the spread of the virus, there isn't anything to talk about. But if people want to start making post-pandemic plans then go for it. I've been doing that since this crap started. :)

Thank you for the quantifiable goal.

Now SIGSEGV, you're gonna have to dumb this down to my level...

How does r<1 compare to say an average flu season? (If the question doesn't make sense I don't know what to say lol)