On the contrary, when I participated in the US Antarctic Program one of the more interesting things we did was a study of the spread of flu and parainfluenza viruses to the isolated winter-over crew when the summer crowd returned carrying them. So, of course, we didn't want anyone vaccinated--we wanted them all "virgins" in respect of flu.

;)

Of course not. Besides the fact that flu is less deadly, some years the flu vaccine is only about 40% effective (compared to 95-100% for COVID vaccines) and less than half the population gets it. So if we were in any way dependent on it, we'd be in big trouble.

Some developments:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...bloombergdaily

By the way, we are now averaging over 2 million shots/day in the US.

Sounds like the results of your study were that we need to have it!

https://i.imgur.com/aXmEmzF.png

More and more I'm thinking the "worst of this" may be in the psychological and intellectual damage to a generation of children many of whom have now spent a year without socializing with friends or getting much of an education.

Consider:

https://tucson.com/news/local/with-t...3443e0102.html

For some time now it has been predicted we could see a "roaring Twenties" mentality in the population as a whole with 5+% economic growth rates like we haven't seen in some time. That's something to look forward to. But I wonder if the kids will ever get over this.

Oh, no doubt. But it was interesting to see what kinds of contact transmitted it. Unfortunately, I don't know where my copy of the paper is. I personally got a parainfluenza virus from the "outsiders".

By the way, they are getting a lot tougher. Gall Bladder Ultrasound on all W/O personnel? Wow.

I think the kids are going to be better.

The push to reopen schools is basically a tidal wave at this point. If Chicago Public Schools reopen (which they already have), then we're in a good place.

Come on, how about some optimism?

My Mom and Dad are finally getting their first vaccine shots tomorrow! :tup:

I'm very optimistic about most things and have been right along: The economy, control of the disease through immunization, the ability of science to conquer it (even if some low information folks don't cooperate by wearing masks and getting their shots).

But we have really scr*wed the kids. I think they should give every 16 year old in America a standardized test a year or two from now just to see how badly but we'd need to use something--maybe the SAT--where we have a comparison from the "before times".

Was it in the American Journal of Epidemiology? I may have found it... (can PM you a copy). Or perhaps it's one of references 7-10 (all in Antarctic J US Rev) in the paper I'm looking at... mostly talking about rhinoviruses though!

And yes, the absolute worst part of working in the Antarctic/Arctic is the awful PQ process. How many times do I have to take this stupid pulmonary function test to prove that in fact my lungs work... Also, most people would have a PPD on there, but since I had the BCG they make me do a blood test instead (which is on a different page :) ).

Fortunately the kids are all on tiktok/snapchat/whatever anyway. This would have been MUCH worse 20 years ago.

2 million shots a day? That is certainly something to be happy about! This thing should be over in no time.

As far as being optimistic about our urban environments? I am far from it. I know we have all shared our opinions on what the future might hold, but I am anything but convinced it will be pretty.

Wow. Really?

They’ve screwed everyone under 40 and maybe 50.

The approach here in Florida has been best. Leave things pretty much open (to the point that places like restaurants are demonstrably unsafe for the elderly), and let people make prudent decisions about their own health and well being.

Of course that only works when you have a robust healthcare system, not the shaky underfunded and underinvested public system in the UK.

America has shit healthcare, though, so letting people fend for themselves isn't going to be pretty. Also, it's Florida. Is losing nightclub culture really that bad? Serious question.

America has excellent healthcare. It’s just expensive.

The UK literally does not have sufficient (or modern enough) hospitals, or enough nurses, to deal with high rates of hospitalisation. This isn’t just a Covid issue, it’s almost every winter flu season. See: https://www.theguardian.com/society/...-overstretched

And people aren’t getting Covid in restaurants, bars and gyms. Offices were responsible for more cases than all of those last fall, and the majority of cases by far are occurring in people’s homes. Just as in the US, there is media coverage of higher rates of infection in minority communities, but this is mostly because big South Asian families have 14 people over for Sunday lunch and they all get Covid.

If anything, the fact that basic NHS healthcare is free further reduces the disincentive to take risks created by the prospect of huge medical bills.

Sounds like you aren't/ weren't into the nightclub scene but that doesn't make its hypothetical demise a good thing. Bars, nightclubs and the hospitality industry in general has been decimated...and they were what put a lot of people especially in places like South Florida to work.

This gets political but since the Moderator in Chief introduced the issue, the main shortcoming of the US healthcare system is access. Something like 90% of people have insurance and for them it's excellent and if they have good health insurance it's about the best in the world.

But for those without insurance it's very problematic. And the hodge-podge of payment systems generally is insane. Also, the really good care is pretty much concentrated in urban areas. Plenty of people in rural areas, especially in the West, live miles, even hundreds of miles, from fairly mediocre care.

So if you can access the system and someone else (government or insurer) is paying most of the bills, it's hard to beat . . . anywhere.

As someone who is retired military and on Medicare, I haven't paid a dime for healthcare in years and I've had a couple of major operations and spent several weeks in the hospital during that time. Also, I regularly see a specialist at UCSF which usually ranks in the top 5 or 10 hospitals in America which means among the best in the world (there's a reason the world's super-wealthy often come here for care).

I am convinced the reason the twenty-something recent grad techie crowd seems to be fleeing the cities is because they are DEAD. San Francisco feels literally like there should be tumbleweeds blowing down Market St.

People flocked there because (1) there were plentiful well-paying jobs and (2) the place was a fun place to live, especially if you were young and single, whether gay or straight. It was a gourmet paradise, and there was nightlife aplenty. And besides tech, tourism was about the largest economic sector.

Mostly the tech jobs still exist, except you can do them from almost anywhere including Idaho. The restaurants are closed to indoor dining though many have been saved by elaborate outdoor "mini parks". But some have gone under and more may before its over. Meanwhile, the bars and clubs are closed completely; the Symphony/Opera/Ballet (all world class in the "before days") are shut down; there is no theater, live or filmed. And property crime is out of control, from shoplifting to vandalism to burglary. Many businesses are shutting permanently just because they are being robbed blind (there are reasons for this beyond COVID but the empty streets and lack of business aggravates things). And the hotels are closed except the ones the city has filled with the homeless.

I left myself . . . for Arizona where it's easier to isolate (single family home vs middies condo building) and I'm not missing anything because in SF it's all closed anyway. The city just dropped from California's "purple tier"--the worst--to red which allows them to open up restaurants again and also museums, but with lowered occupancy. I've got my fingers crossed that when I go back in April there'll be some life in the old girl.

https://uniim1.shutterfly.com/ng/ser...845406/enhance
For this, other states and international situation: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

Brazil is at 11 million doses, 7.5 million people vaccinated. Watching the US and the UK that were on their worst moments when the program started, Brazil has a painful way ahead. Even today there are too many deaths in the US and the UK. Brazil registered almost 1,900 deaths yesterday. The worst day so far.

About things on the ground, the entire São Paulo state receeded to the “red phase”, when only “essential services” operate such as supermarkets, drugstores, etc. Restaurants and bars only for delivery. Schools will be opened, as they were closed since March 2000.