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the urban politician May 10, 2021 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Camelback (Post 9275704)
I can't wait to get the shingles and pneumonia vax, both are age restricted, but yeah, I'll get those as soon as possible once I reach the age requirement.

You can’t wait to be 50 and 65? :haha:

I think I will still take my youth (however much it fades year after year)

the urban politician May 10, 2021 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9275652)
Kids shouldn’t need to be vaccinated. They are at zero risk from Covid. It’s almost unethical to give it to them.

Well I guess I’m unethical because my 11 year old son already knows that when he turns 12 this August, he will be starting his Covid vaccine series.

He doesn’t like it, but we will appease him with ice cream or some other reward.

Vaccines rock!

suburbanite May 10, 2021 11:52 PM

Even if a kid is at near zero risk from Covid, isn't every un-vaccinated person just a possible incubator for future mutations that could eventually circumvent our current vaccines? Would seem logical that even if your personal risk is zero, getting preemptive antibodies to break the link in the transmission chain is just socially responsible at this point.

the urban politician May 11, 2021 12:01 AM

By the way, this whole variant thing is overblown. There is only so much a virus can mutate before it just becomes less effective as a virus. So the amount of variation a virus can attain while still spreading through the population is limited. It’s not infinite.

dubu May 11, 2021 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 9275753)
By the way, this whole variant thing is overblown. There is only so much a virus can mutate before it just becomes less effective as a virus. So the amount of variation a virus can attain while still spreading through the population is limited. It’s not infinite.

/ thread

Camelback May 11, 2021 12:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 9275733)
You can’t wait to be 50 and 65? :haha:

I think I will still take my youth (however much it fades year after year)

I can't wait = I can not wait until they approve both of the vax for those under those ages.

I can wait to get old, I got a whole lot of...you know what young people do...to do. :D

sopas ej May 11, 2021 12:56 AM

From the Los Angeles Times:

L.A. County expected to hit COVID-19 herd immunity by end of July

https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/d...-ep-015.FO.jpg
Diners eat inside E.P. restaurant in West Hollywood on Saturday. Public health officials say Los Angeles County could reach coronavirus herd immunity in the next three months.(Francine Orr / Los Angeles Times)

By RONG-GONG LIN II, HAYLEY SMITH
MAY 10, 2021 UPDATED 3:22 PM PT

Los Angeles County could reach herd immunity from the coronavirus among adults and the oldest teenagers by mid- to late July, public health officials said Monday.

Herd immunity, sometimes referred to as community immunity, occurs when enough people have been inoculated or have obtained natural immunity to protect the larger population against the virus.

Experts had previously expressed concern that waning demand for the COVID-19 vaccines and uneven vaccination rates could make it hard to reach that goal.

With about 400,000 shots administered weekly, the county has about 2 million first doses to go before 80% of all residents 16 and older will have received at least one shot, Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said in a news briefing Monday.

“At the rate we’re going, we expect that we can reach this level somewhere in mid- to late July, and that assumes that we continue to have at least 400,000 people vaccinated each week that will include both first doses that people need, as well as their second doses,” Ferrer said.

Ferrer noted that the estimated population that needs to be vaccinated in L.A. County for herd immunity is a guess, “but we do assume it’s probably somewhere around 80%.”

President Biden’s latest goal is to get 70% of adult Americans with at least one shot of vaccine by July 4, a target that his chief medical advisor, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said would probably result in a sustained decline of new coronavirus cases nationally. Fauci has previously guessed that 70% to 85% of a population would need to be inoculated for herd immunity to be reached.

More than 3 million people have received at least one vaccine dose, Ferrer said, and 84% of those have received their second dose on time (7% received their second doses late and 9% have not received their second dose).

“The focus from here on in for us is to make it as easy as possible for eligible residents to get vaccinated,” Ferrer said.

The prediction comes amid growing signs COVID-19 is fading in California. The state recorded its lowest hospitalization rate since the first few weeks of the pandemic, according to data reviewed by The Times.

The numbers come just months after the fall and winter surge left hospitals across Southern California overwhelmed with patients and caused a spike in deaths.

But over the last three months, COVID-19 has receded rapidly across the region, allowing a massive reopening of the economy and the hope for a return to some kind of normality by the summer.

California is now close to the bottom of the nation when it comes to coronavirus case rates over the past week. Los Angeles and San Francisco counties last week progressed into the least-restrictive tier of California’s color-coded closure system.

Officials in some parts of the Bay Area said they could soon reach herd immunity soon as well.

Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco, said he thought the Bay Area region would experience some form of herd immunity first — perhaps by mid-June or early July — followed by urban and suburban Southern California sometime later and with agricultural California coming after that.

But that’s all contingent on vaccine rates remaining steady and not declining more steeply than they have recently.

There are now more than 750 sites offering vaccinations in Los Angeles County, including pharmacies, clinics, community sites and hospitals. Many are concentrated in areas with lower levels of community health, which have been hit hard by the pandemic, Ferrer said.

“We want to make it super easy to get a vaccine if you live in these communities,” she said, noting that 185 mobile vaccination teams are also working to reach people who may have limited ability or time to get to one of the established vaccination sites.

Residents can obtain vaccines at the eight county-run sites, all the L.A. City-run sites, almost all mobile sites and many of the community sites without an appointment, Ferrer said. Many are open on weekends and have evening hours.

CVS, RiteAid and Walmart locations nationwide are offering vaccines without requiring an appointment, subject to availability. L.A. County is also increasing its capacity to bring vaccine clinics to workplaces, and people will soon be able to request the county to come to their worksite to administer vaccines.

“The strategy right now is to pop up wherever people are already gathering,” Ferrer said, adding that people can visit VaccinateLACounty.com or call (833) 540-0473 to find a nearby site.

Of L.A. County’s 10.1 million residents, 8.3 million are 16 and older. As of Friday, 4.89 million adults and older teenagers in L.A. County had received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, about 59% of this population.

L.A. County’s goal of getting 80% of adults and the older teens vaccinated doesn’t account for vaccinating adolescents 12 to 15 — who on Monday became eligible to be vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine — nor younger children.

But the 80% goal among those eligible for the vaccine is a reasonable guess for reaching herd immunity, Ferrer said.

After all, while children do get sick from COVID-19 and can transmit the virus, “children tend to be not as efficient spreaders as older teens and as adults are,” Ferrer said. “The more and more people that get vaccinated, the less and less there’s going to be community transmission.”

To get more people immunized, L.A. County will still need to confront disparities among certain demographics who have been less likely to get vaccinated: Latino and Black residents, young people and men.

Among the county’s adults and older teens, 60% of white, 68% of Asian American and 58% of Native American residents have received at least one dose of vaccine. But only 38% of Black and 42% of Latino residents in this age group have received one dose of vaccine.

Teenagers and the youngest adults are also less likely to have received a shot. The majority of adults in their 30s and older have received one shot, but among the youngest adults — up to age 29 — only 45% have received at least one dose of vaccine, and among 16- and 17-year-olds, only 34% have gotten at least one shot.

And while 62% of eligible female residents of L.A. County have received at least one vaccine dose, only 56% of men have.

L.A. County Supervisor Hilda Solis said the county is working to improve access to the vaccine and is considering ideas like hosting vaccine clinics in sports venues where young people are already going. Solis also urged role models to speak publicly about the need to get vaccinated, and family members and friends to reach out to their loved ones.

“We still have a long way to go,” she said.

There were some signs of optimism. Ferrer said she was working Saturday at the vaccine site at Eugene A. Obregon Park in the predominantly Latino neighborhood of East L.A., and 60% of the people that came in were male.

“They were bringing their friends, and they were frankly happy to be there and felt like it was important for them to come in and get vaccinated,” Ferrer said. “But we made it a lot easier at that site: You don’t need an appointment, and that site is in the middle of a community that many people can walk to or take a bus to.”

And in Los Angeles, Mayor Eric Garcetti said the city’s Mobile Outreach for Vaccine Equity Program — which operates its own vaccine mobile clinics and is run by the mayor’s office and fire department — has now administered more than 100,000 doses in neighborhoods hard hit by COVID-19.

”A person’s ZIP code or neighborhood should never be a barrier to accessing life-saving vaccines, and this week’s milestone is a reflection of our commitment to putting shots into the arms of Angelenos no matter where they live,” Garcetti said in a statement.

Overall, 90% of first-doses administered by the city’s mobile vaccine clinics have gone to people of color, with about two-thirds of them going to Latino residents.

In the Bay Area, Santa Clara County this week plans to host three nights of “student vaccination nights” at Levi’s Stadium, where the 49ers play, providing drop-in vaccine clinics for students 16 to 19 and their families.

Santa Clara County — Northern California’s most populous — also is reporting low vaccination rates among teens, with only 40% of 16- and 17-year-olds getting at least one dose, compared to 73% of all eligible residents.

“That has to be the strategy moving forward because ... if we’re not successful, we delay the point at which we get to community immunity,” Ferrer said of L.A. County’s plans.

Link: https://www.latimes.com/california/s...by-end-of-july

SlidellWx May 11, 2021 3:53 AM

35.9% of the total population of metro New Orleans is fully vaccinated as of today, May 10th.

https://ldh.la.gov/coronavirus/

Breaking it out by parish:

Orleans Parish: 40.1% fully vaccinated (49.9% of 18+)
Jefferson Parish: 36.8% fully vaccinated (46.5% of 18+)
St. Tammany Parish: 32.6% fully vaccinated (44.2% of 18+)
St. James Parish: 32.0% fully vaccinated (40.8% of 18+)
St. John the Baptist Parish: 31.7% fully vaccinated (41.3% of 18+)
St. Charles Parish: 31.6% fully vaccinated (41.9% of 18+)
Plaquemines Parish: 31.2% fully vaccinated (41.7% of 18+)
St. Bernard Parish: 24.9% fully vaccinated (35.0% of 18+)

SIGSEGV May 11, 2021 7:31 AM

This graphic in the NYT is very interesting:
https://i.imgur.com/oJaOaAC.png

Interesting how states like WV were doing so well early on but are now severely lagging.

Chicago has per-zip-code data available at https://data.cityofchicago.org/Healt...e-Do/c28u-q29v, but looks a bit dodgy.
My zipcode (60602) supposedly has 91% of the population with a first dose. Neighboring 60603 supposedly has 112% of the population with a first dose... Perhaps this is 2010 population or something though.

10023 May 11, 2021 7:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Camelback (Post 9275695)
If it's an endemic disease, should parents wait until they're 16? And if so, what's the point? Why not get them vaccinated at an early age?

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 9275702)
Exactly. That's why kids are now vaccinated for the chickenpox. He's starting to sound like an anti-vaxxer.

Because it’s not chickenpox. It could not be more different from chickenpox.

We are being told that annual vaccinations will be required, so like flu shots or prostate exams, you wait until an age where the risk makes it necessary.

iheartthed May 11, 2021 2:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9276016)
Because it’s not chickenpox. It could not be more different from chickenpox.

Yeah. Chickenpox has pretty much a 0% rate of serious disease for kids, while COVID does not.

10023 May 11, 2021 3:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 9276173)
Yeah. Chickenpox has pretty much a 0% rate of serious disease for kids, while COVID does not.

You cannot be this thick.

Vaccination against chickenpox lasts for life. Vaccination against Covid does not, or at least that’s what we are told. So while you can vaccinate against chickenpox at any age and be done with it (so might as well do it in childhood), Covid will require an annual shot. It doesn’t gain you anything to start those annual shots before the disease poses a risk, especially now that people are moving past the inane idea that the virus will be eliminated population-wide.

And Covid does have a 0% chance of becoming a serious disease in kids.

iheartthed May 11, 2021 3:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9276243)
You cannot be this thick.

Vaccination against chickenpox lasts for life. Vaccination against Covid does not, or at least that’s what we are told. So while you can vaccinate against chickenpox at any age and be done with it (so might as well do it in childhood), Covid will require an annual shot. It doesn’t gain you anything to start those annual shots before the disease poses a risk, especially now that people are moving past the inane idea that the virus will be eliminated population-wide.

And Covid does have a 0% chance of becoming a serious disease in kids.

The risk of serious disease in children from COVID is not zero. Can't believe I have to say that again.

the urban politician May 11, 2021 3:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 9276253)
The risk of serious disease in children from COVID is not zero. Can't believe I have to say that again.

^ It took me 18 seconds to find this data from the CDC:

The fatality rate for varicella was approximately 1 per 100,000 cases among children age 1 through 14 years, 6 per 100,000 cases among persons age 15 through 19 years, and 21 per 100,000 cases among adults. Most deaths occur in immunocompetent children and adults.

Chicken Pox did kill children, albeit at a very low rate, just like COVID

10023 does have a point. We should question the profit motives of companies who insist that the COVID vaccine will be a yearly shot. We don't know if that is the case. It may require a booster or two, but a yearly shot for the rest of our lives? I'm very skeptical of that

10023 May 11, 2021 3:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 9276253)
The risk of serious disease in children from COVID is not zero. Can't believe I have to say that again.

You can say it as many times as you want, but you’ll still be wrong.

the urban politician May 11, 2021 3:30 PM

^ If you look at what I posted just above you, it seems as if Chicken Pox and COVID have a similarly very low mortality rate among children.

homebucket May 11, 2021 3:30 PM

Here are some facts:

Quote:

While children infected with SARS-CoV-2 are less likely to develop severe illness compared with adults, children are still at risk of developing severe illness and complications from COVID-19. Weekly COVID-19 hospitalization surveillance data show that the rate of hospitalization among children is low compared with that of adults, but hospitalization rates among children are increasing. About 1 in 3 children hospitalized with COVID-19 in the United States were admitted to the intensive care unit, similar to the rate among adults.

...

Similar to adults, children with severe COVID-19 may develop respiratory failure, myocarditis, shock, acute renal failure, coagulopathy, and multi-organ system failure. Some children with COVID-19 have developed other serious problems like intussusception or diabetic ketoacidosis. Children infected with SARS-CoV-2 are also at risk for developing Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C).
In other words... not zero.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...atric-hcp.html

iheartthed May 11, 2021 3:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 9276257)
^ It took me 18 seconds to find this data from the CDC:

The fatality rate for varicella was approximately 1 per 100,000 cases among children age 1 through 14 years, 6 per 100,000 cases among persons age 15 through 19 years, and 21 per 100,000 cases among adults. Most deaths occur in immunocompetent children and adults.

Chicken Pox did kill children, albeit at a very low rate, just like COVID

10023 does have a point. We should question the profit motives of companies who insist that the COVID vaccine will be a yearly shot. We don't know if that is the case. It may require a booster or two, but a yearly shot for the rest of our lives? I'm very skeptical of that

Okay, so the risk of death for kids from chickenpox is infinitesimally small. I promise you that the risk of death in children from COVID is far higher than it is from chickenpox. We pretty much know that already, even without studying it for years.

10023 May 11, 2021 3:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician (Post 9276264)
^ If you look at what I posted just above you, it seems as if Chicken Pox and COVID have a similarly very low mortality rate among children.

1 per 100,000 (0.001%) is ‘zero’ for all practical purposes.

the urban politician May 11, 2021 3:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 9276268)
I promise you that the risk of death in children from COVID is far higher than it is from chickenpox..

^ Show me your data


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