Mark, I predict this will be a roaring success. You need to remember that in addition to business demand between these two metros, there are 50 million + tourists annually that travel between Orlando & Miami. MOST flights operate between ORL & Ft. Lauderdale, which really isn't convenient for business travelers. Considering check-in time, security check points, etc, this will be totally competitive to flying. The traffic on the Turnpike &/or I-95 can be totally jammed (and the Turnpike is considered pricey to a lot of people).

These folks know what they are doing, in my opinion - and they happen to have the deep pockets to pull it off.

they also own the track and real estate
I think it will start up very fast because its in there benefit
I support obama & democrats , but all the republicans will say that
the private sector is so much better at this stuff then the govt.
just like france,japan,spain,china,england,germany

England is probably not the best example to use as British Rail was in fact privatized in the 1990's. As for Britain's new HS2 program, I don't know what the private-public partnership entails specifically about what the government is directly funding, but I am making the assumption that the government has no intention of having state operation of the services ala France, Spain, Germany, China and to a slightly lesser extent Japan.

But yeah, I get the gist of your sarcasm.

cant wait to see what the miami downtown station will look like.
i have been there many times to the old miami heat arena and the
new miami heat arena.
also the metro rail is nearby.
the new science museum AND new art museum are both
being bult also.

I recently made the trip between Orlando & Miami and I followed the same route that this planned FEC line does. It took me nearly 5 hours including stops for food & gas. I would gladly use this if built. The Amtrak route takes so long between both cities because it stops at so many cities & towns on the way up through central Florida.
Anyways nodody I know flies between Miami & Orlando unless it's unless it's urgent or you are a tourist.
The biggest issue I see is building the rail line from Cocoa to Orlando and then how to get around Orlando since the bus service is mediocre at best.

Its not the size of the markets that makes me worried. It is their desire to pay enough to cover costs that I worry about. There aren't a lot of examples to use when comparing costs but using Amtrak costs and then giving FEC an efficiency bonus, I come up with somewhere around $40-$55 one way tickets between Miami and Orlando to cover operations costs. That includes high load factors. Toss on that $1 billion dollars in investment and we are talking about pretty high prices.

And lets not pretend that they have all the money in the world. In 2007, FECI was sold to Fortress for $3.5 billion dollars. So $1 billion is almost a third of what the company is worth. And Fortress itself makes $250-300 million net income in a year on $47 billion in assets managed. This is a huge investment for them, certainly they can afford $1 billion dollars but can they continue to pump money in to build the business or will they cut and run if things go poorly at the beginning.

I think it's been touched on here previously, but FECI is a major developer in Florida. The synergies between their development arm and transportation arm can't be overlooked. They could theoretically stand to lose money on the train if they're making it up selling condos or industrial space.

Also, don't be surprised if FEC uses this new rail line to open themselves up to the Orlando market for freight service. The new line will get them on the same track used to get coal unit trains to the Staton Energy Center and industrial zoned property on the southside of the airport. Also, as a part of the Sunrail deal, the State purchased all of the track in Orlando from CSX. I predict FEC will make a killing on this. However, that profit will come in the form of real estate development and new freight customers.

Exactly, Lakelander. Their real estate holdings and potential development rights alone could very well actually subsidize any possible losses on the passenger rail side, but this sounds like a win-win all the way. The nine acres of raw land in the heart of Miami that they already own could be nothing less than a huge goldmine - and I totally agree with you on the potential $$$ that may be realized with the freight potential to metro Orlando.

Sounds like some pretty serious due diligence has been employed here. This is very exciting.

Could they use lighter trains since its their own tracks and not another RR?

No; the trains are still operating in a mixed environment with heavy freight trains, and I don't think there will be full time separation like the RiverLine and Caltrain have. It will be difficult for FEC to get a waiver from the FRA.

I'm guessing FEC will use off-the-shelf locomotives and coaches. They can probably jump onto SunRail's order and lower costs... the top speed of SunRail's MP36 is 108mph, which is also suitable for All Aboard Florida.

FEC is planning to run trains at 79 mph from Miami to West Palm Beach, 110 mph from West Palm Beach to Cocoa, and 125 mph on the new segment to Orlando.

That makes things interesting, then... short of the Acela, there isn't a locomotive capable of 125mph in the US yet.

The Midwest and California are seeking bids for a 125mph Next-Gen locomotive, but they haven't chosen a winner yet and I doubt those locomotives will be ready on FEC's quick timetable. They might have no choice but to seek an FRA waiver and use a lightweight foreign trainset.

Amtrak's HHP-8 & AME7 hit 125mph
NJT's ALP 46A and ALP 45DP can hit 125mph
Down the road Septa is looking to upgrade to 125mph and Metro North

Well, there are also the AEM-7 and HHP-8 electric locomotives which pull the Regionals, Keystones at 125 mph on the NEC. But those are electrics, of no use to the FEC.

The FEC may be planning to build the ~ 35 to 40 mile Cocoa to Orlando Airport segment to 125 mph standards, but that does not mean they have to start out operating at 125 mph. They could lease commuter diesel locomotives that are capable of 105 to 110 mph, while waiting on delivery of an order of the Next Gen diesels.

The FEC will have to order FRA compliant coach cars. Not going to get a waiver for the FEC line which has numerous grade crossings for one thing. There are commuter cars being sold in the US capable of 125 mph. But the FEC is going to want cars with comfortable reclining seats, plenty of leg room, a cafe for food & beverage sales. The FEC will have the advantage of not having to comply with Buy American requirements, so they can order assembled cars from overseas.

FEC is planning on using diesel locomotives, so forget about them buying electric power ones, they're not going to place catenary wires over their tracks.
I know Nippon Sharyo (Japan) and Talgo (Spain) build FRA compliant trains in the USA, but they could easily and cheaply build them overseas too. Other Asian and European train manufactures could too. Although I would like to see double level trains with doors compatible with low platforms, it'll be interesting to see what equipment they will order. Since it takes two to three years to get brand new trains built, they're going to have to order them soon.

full article: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/bro...,1962657.story

you cant read that sun-sentinal crap unless you subscribe..
miami or palm beach post are better i think

have they released any photos of the train stations
I guess the ones in palm beach and ft lauderdale will be small
but i guess miami will be huge like a shopping mall / hotel

The Orlando terminus at OIA should include a SunRail station, expanded Lynx bus service, and of course, the direct airport connection. At some point, it should also include the planned light rail service to the attractions.

Which is what I said when I wrote that the electric locomotives are of no use to the FEC.

As for rolling stock, the statement from FECI was that they are planning to buy 10 trainsets with 400 seats each. It was noted elsewhere on a railroad forum that the 2 Talgo trainsets in Wisconsin, headed for storage, have a capacity of almost 400 seats. Those Talgo trainsets are fully FRA compliant. Pure speculation, but the FEC could conceivably buy those 2 Talgo trainsets at a discount, have them ready by 2014, and order 8 more identical FRA compliant Talgo sets to be built at a Talgo plant overseas. However, the FEC may not want the short cars of the Talgo design and the ability of low height Talgos to maintain speed through curves is not of much use for the FEC route. There will presumably be an announcement on FEC rolling stock purchase plans in the next 6-12 months.