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mrnyc Dec 21, 2021 4:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by photoLith (Post 9482864)
^
The world is a much more connected place than it was 100 years ago. Therefor, it is logical to conclude that nearly everyone at some point in the next couple of years will get this largely innocuous virus.


you do realize there is quite a wide gap between one third perhaps at peak got the spanish flu and the fey, whiny nonsense that literally everyone will get covid.

not to mention, if it is or fades away to that innocuous as you think, in the end no one will ever really know or care. :shrug:

photoLith Dec 21, 2021 4:33 PM

^
Whiny nonsense that everyone or nearly everyone will get covid? Nearly everyone I know has already had it, Ive had it twice. My gf had it, we both hardly got sick and both of us got more sick with the shot than with actual covid. The majority of cases people dont even know theyve had it. So, its pretty reasonable to deduce that almost everyone has had it or will get it soon. How in the world is that whiny or fey?

mrnyc Dec 21, 2021 4:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by photoLith (Post 9482924)
^
Whiny nonsense that everyone or nearly everyone will get covid? Nearly everyone I know has already had it, Ive had it twice. My gf had it, we both hardly got sick and both of us got more sick with the shot than with actual covid. The majority of cases people dont even know theyve had it. So, its pretty reasonable to deduce that almost everyone has had it or will get it soon. How in the world is that whiny or fey?

i wasnt referring to you -- but i would remind you your remark is very anecdotal. 10-20% of the world may have had covid, which puts it right on the same likely track as spanish flu. of course if its as nothing as you think and your personal experience we will never know.

chris08876 Dec 21, 2021 5:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twister244 (Post 9482877)
Maybe not infected with severe illness, but I agree that most people will get exposed, if they already haven't. You can't look at Omicron and think most people won't get exposed somehow...... You're living in a bubble if you think there's not a significant chance you get in contact with it at some point. Doesn't mean you need to freak out, but just be aware of how easily this thing can spread.

Very easily and folks have to understand that it's extraordinarily contagious (this new Omicron).

Not quite Measles but not to far off. Folks will get it!

Seems like the big issue is the Delta, for those at high risk. But yeah... in a nutshell, folks will get it.

Maybe a way to look at it (speaking in general) is to think of the common cold. Almost everyone gets the common cold at some point in their lives. Now... Covid in its dominant forms, the ones circulating, is extremely contagious... so if one has gotten a cold... one sure as hell will get this in time. Unless they take a SpaceX rocket to Mars and live there in isolation. :shrug:

10023 Dec 21, 2021 5:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrnyc (Post 9482841)
this is complete ignorance and fake news. not everyone is going to get covid. not even close. even the spanish flu peak was one third at most.

of course in your case you may very likely personally be the cause of someone getting it, but that is another story. :rolleyes:

Did they count asymptomatic cases of Spanish flu?

The world is much more connected and much more urbanised today (at the time the US urban population percentage was just over 50%, now it’s over 80%). There aren’t a lot of farmers and rural villages.

More importantly, the Spanish flu isn’t the right comparison. That was a particular strain that caused a pandemic for a limited period of time; it’s like saying that not everyone got Delta which is true. But your chances of evading Covid forever are about as good as never getting “the flu”.

10023 Dec 21, 2021 5:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrnyc (Post 9482926)
i wasnt referring to you -- but i would remind you your remark is very anecdotal. 10-20% of the world may have had covid, which puts it right on the same likely track as spanish flu. of course if its as nothing as you think and your personal experience we will never know.

The proportion of people who had had Covid was estimated to have been 20% (1 in 5) back in January 2021. That was halfway through so far, before the full Delta wave or Omicron.

When I say “everyone will get it”, I am both speaking loosely (I do not literally mean 100% of the population) and I mean eventually. Covid will be around forever, like the flu, and at some point you’ll get Covid, just like how at some point you’ll get some strain of flu.

The “Spanish flu” is still around btw. The name of the actual virus that caused that pandemic is influenza A/H1N1 and strains of it still cause seasonal flu outbreaks.

mrnyc Dec 21, 2021 6:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9483034)
Did they count asymptomatic cases of Spanish flu?

The world is much more connected and much more urbanised today (at the time the US urban population percentage was just over 50%, now it’s over 80%). There aren’t a lot of farmers and rural villages.

More importantly, the Spanish flu isn’t the right comparison. That was a particular strain that caused a pandemic for a limited period of time; it’s like saying that not everyone got Delta which is true. But your chances of evading Covid forever are about as good as never getting “the flu”.


if omnicron winds down to as nothing as photolith seems to think, then we'll never know because covid could fade right off the radar. or if catching that is enough to give everyone "muh natural immunities" to other strains of covid.

one thing is for certain, there is no way this testing crush we are currently seeing for the christmas holiday travel season will keep up that pace after the new year. the best data we will ever have will be from this month.

mousquet Dec 21, 2021 6:20 PM

It would be a wise thing to listen to what actual epidemiologists and virologists have to say about this pandemic... They made some mistakes so far because this branch of viruses is new. They didn't know about the original strain or any possible variant, so they couldn't predict about anything. Nevertheless, they're still the only credible experts because they've been trained and worked for their entire lives on such things and they've always warned the population: when viruses keep on going, they mutate, give birth to tougher variants and the outbreak is harder to stop.

It's funny how ignorant people think they know about everything. In my country, we've seen some inept people to make jokes of themselves by speaking to the media as if they were specialized microbiologists, while they don't know a single thing of what they talk about.

In a nutshell, when you're not qualified at all to solve the problem, you simply shut your mouth and rely on people who've been educated to address the issue.
That's it. That's all you can do.

10023 Dec 21, 2021 6:28 PM

^ This is a French attitude and not an American one (or even an Anglo-American one). More and more, I think this is a good thing for Americans.

We ask why. If I’m told to do something I want to know what it’s expected to achieve.

And epidemiologists/virologists aren’t the only experts worth listening to. How about economists, psychologists, etc? There has always been a trade off required, we can’t eliminate all deaths from Covid (which will continue forever) and shouldn’t try. The goal is not to prevent every death. I see no evidence so far that Omicron is causing an unacceptably high number of deaths. Neither does the UK government, apparently (though everyone will have their own definition of “acceptable deaths” and mine is probably higher than average).

mousquet Dec 21, 2021 6:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9483087)
^ This is a French attitude and not an American one (or even an Anglo-American one). More and more, I think this is a good thing for Americans.

We ask why. If I’m told to do something I want to know what it’s expected to achieve.

And epidemiologists/virologists aren’t the only experts worth listening to. How about economists, psychologists, etc? There has always been a trade off required, we can’t eliminate all deaths from Covid (which will continue forever) and shouldn’t try.

This is ideology. Not science. Scientists are simply meant to solve problems efficiently by rigorous and strict methods. That's what they're paid for and I have the greatest respect for that.

The rest is mostly politics. Neither economics or psychology are any solid science. Even less so politics.

It all depends on your personal culture, which is nothing much related to any French-ness or American behavior. I'm sure a lot of French would agree with you. They would speak the same kind of speech. It is proven already, by the way.
And a lot of Americans would agree with me as well.

kool maudit Dec 21, 2021 6:49 PM

Democratic republics have the ideal of the informed layman, which is really where the decision-making is meant to occur. Scientists and similar may well communicate their findings (in appropriately lay fashion) for discussion and debate, but the American (and I think the English as well) ideal is not technocracy.

TWAK Dec 21, 2021 6:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mousquet (Post 9483106)
This is ideology. Not science. Scientists are simply meant to solve problems efficiently by rigorous and strict methods. That's what they're paid for and I have the greatest respect for that.

The rest is mostly politics. Neither economics or psychology are any solid science. Even less so politics.

Plus why should a economist decide what to do for a virus? Probably because that's 10023's job :haha:.

Quote:

It all depends on your personal culture, which is nothing much related to any French-ness or American behavior. I'm sure a lot of French would agree with you. They would speak the same kind of speech. It is proven already, by the way.
And a lot of Americans would agree with me as well.
It is mostly based on if people can handle COVID restrictions or not. People that can't handle them will fight tooth and nail/spread misinformation because they can't deal with wearing a mask. If they just say they "don't like" it, then that's fine, but when they flat out lie because they don't like it? F that.

the urban politician Dec 21, 2021 6:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kool maudit (Post 9483114)
Democratic republics have the ideal of the informed layman, which is really where the decision-making is meant to occur. Scientists and similar may well communicate their findings (in appropriately lay fashion) for discussion and debate, but the American (and I think the English as well) ideal is not technocracy.

Yep.

Scientists and science are tremendously important, but they should never set public policy. They have a tendency towards tunnel vision about their own fields at the expense of everything (and everyone) else.

SteveD Dec 22, 2021 9:49 PM

My little pocket of Atlanta, East Atlanta Village, EAV, apparently is suddenly awash in the Vid. Dozens of my friends are posting today they've got it; I'm going for a test at 6:10. Nearly all of our bars and restaurants are shut down due to outbreaks of the Vid and the need to test everyone before things can open back up. I've got all the classic Omicron symtoms that arrived out of the blue yesterday. Very frustrating after I've been so damn careful these last two years. I guess I'll find out in a couple hours now.

SAN Man Dec 22, 2021 10:37 PM

In San Diego I haven't met one person that has altered their lifestyle in the last year or so from Delta or in the last month from Omicron. When you're fully vaccinated with a booster, nobody cares what the CDC says and AAA has confirmed this sentiment with their latest information on travel. This is the third most busiest travel season ever recorded in the US and is approaching 2019 levels. 14 million Californians are going to travel this week and over 100 million Americans.

TWAK Dec 22, 2021 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SAN Man (Post 9484496)
In San Diego I haven't met one person that has altered their lifestyle in the last year or so from Delta or in the last month from Omicron. When you're fully vaccinated with a booster, nobody cares what the CDC says and AAA has confirmed this sentiment with their latest information on travel. This is the third most busiest travel season ever recorded in the US and is approaching 2019 levels. 14 million Californians are going to travel this week and over 100 million Americans.

The pandemic ended for us on June 15th, which is interesting considering people think it's some sort of lockdown nightmare :shrug:. We were even called "the lockdown state". Very unfair!

10023 Dec 22, 2021 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mousquet (Post 9483106)
This is ideology. Not science. Scientists are simply meant to solve problems efficiently by rigorous and strict methods. That's what they're paid for and I have the greatest respect for that.

The rest is mostly politics. Neither economics or psychology are any solid science. Even less so politics.

It all depends on your personal culture, which is nothing much related to any French-ness or American behavior. I'm sure a lot of French would agree with you. They would speak the same kind of speech. It is proven already, by the way.
And a lot of Americans would agree with me as well.

Scientists are meant to advise on the facts as they understand them (which of course can change). Politicians make decisions based on a wide range of considerations - disease epidemiology, case rates, and even deaths resulting from these being but one. Even in a technocracy, which as kool maudit says is not our form of government, the views of other experts such as economists, sociologists and psychologists would also be taken into consideration.

The whole problem with this farce may have begun when political leaders decided to outsource decision-making to the public health bureaucracy.

SAN Man Dec 22, 2021 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TWAK (Post 9484503)
The pandemic ended for us on June 15th, which is interesting considering people think it's some sort of lockdown nightmare :shrug:. We were even called "the lockdown state". Very unfair!

The pandemic ended much earlier in San Diego. We stopped obeying California and SDC's capacity limits and indoor mask orders much sooner than the rest of the state.

TWAK Dec 22, 2021 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SAN Man (Post 9484506)
The pandemic ended much earlier in San Diego. We stopped obeying California and SDC's capacity limits and indoor mask orders much sooner than the rest of the state.

Did you guys earn it though? Rural Nor Cal sorta...never really had a lockdown, but had large numbers of unvaccinated that flooded beds for Delta. There still was no mask mandate...
I have no problem supporting places that wanna have some rules though.

someone123 Dec 22, 2021 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 9483087)
^ This is a French attitude and not an American one (or even an Anglo-American one). More and more, I think this is a good thing for Americans.

Even if you think we should be directed by technocrats, they should be transparent about their level of uncertainty. How many of them predicted the drop off in cases that's happening now in South Africa?

When you point this out usually people say that it's OK because we only care about the worst case. Actually the worst case is that an asteroid destroys the planet 2 seconds from now and none of the epidemiology matters. Merely constructing possible worst-case hypotheticals of unknown probability is not useful for directing rational policy decisions.

In any case, we have now been ordered not to have gatherings of more than 2 households for the second Christmas period in a row (I think last Christmas may have been no gatherings except with at-risk grandparents or something).


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