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-   -   How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=242036)

SIGSEGV May 27, 2020 9:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 8934295)
That’s basically what happened here, because you had Chicken Little (Neil Ferguson and his friends) running around saying this would be cataclysmic.

In Italy the health system seems to have not been able to manage the caseload, but that’s turning out to have been a bit of an aberration.

I think we should apply your logic to building levees. Rather than considering the tail distribution and picking an appropriately safe quantile, we just build the levee big enough to cope with the average predicted rainstorm :rolleyes:

SIGSEGV May 27, 2020 9:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 8934341)
Same situation here in Houston, the city/ county built a hospital near the football stadium that was rarely used at all and after the fact, people were complaining about mismanaged funds when they would be the same ones calling for the mayor and county judge's heads had it not been built and our medical infrastructure been over run with Covid-19 patients.

Paradoxically, in the majority of situations where it's appropriate to build a backup hospital, the backup hospital won't be used. This is because it makes sense to build a backup hospital even if you think there's only a X% chance of things going so badly that you need it, where people can set X to be what they are comfortable with (reasonable values might be 1-10%). And if X is small, than (1-X)% of the time, the hospital was appropriately built even though it's not used. (OK, this is a simplistic analysis obviously since it assumes a uniform distribution of predicted X's... you can put your own prior in and adjust, I'm not sure the conclusions change strongly).

Some people might set X at 100 to avoid never having to build a backup hospital that's not used, but I think most people would agree that's not a good idea.

TWAK May 27, 2020 9:52 PM

Wow this is moving faster than the CE thread.....get yourselves over there!
Continuing life on the city question..... 8/10 times places are requiring a mask so I keep one in my vehicle.

destroycreate May 27, 2020 10:01 PM

Idk...we just got to stop living in chronic fear and begin to adapt to living with it. I had non-stop anxiety and nightmares for the first 6 weeks living in fear of the virus, to the point where I was looking at strangers like they were the enemy. I had panic attacks going out. And as of late, I've just learned to let this go...I cannot over-control a pretty hopeless situation anymore. I am not going to leave FedEx boxes in the sun for 6 hours before taking inside, handle my groceries in gloves or lysol my clothes upcon coming home. It's just too stressful. I'm leaving it in fates hands and am praying once or if I get it, I don't require hospitalization.

Look - a vaccine isn't coming any time soon. Low infection rate =/= ZOMG VIRUS IS DISAPPEARING!!!11 People keep on getting confused with this. In my opinion, we need to let infections slowly simmer vs boil over (aka hospitals get overwhelmed), so that we can slowly get people exposed to this virus. Shielding us all from it does what? Prolongs it, and causes more harm all around in the long run. As long as someone on the planet has the virus and it's as contagious as it is, we're fucked.

So with that said, I'm going to do the following:
- Socialize in small amounts and infrequently. But I need to see my friends for my mental health at least a couple of times a month. I simply cannot be all alone at home, anymore. It's a risk I've accepted.
- Will dine out at establishments because, well, I fucking can, I love it, and we should support our local businesses and I'm not going to hear anybody telling me that's a crime. I will however only patron places that are doing it smart and taking precautions - I want to see masks on staff, I want to see tables spaced out, etc.
- Avoid seeing my elders or anybody who is immunocompromised.
- Will try to live as normal as I can, but sanitize constantly (when I'm out, I probably wash my hands or use sanitizer every 5 min), and wear my mask publically at all times.

I'm not trying to lose out on the best time of my life here (30s). I'm SO over everybody policing each other and getting all up in one another's business.

pdxtex May 27, 2020 10:36 PM

That's the rational attitude. Take reasonable precaution but otherwise carry on. My awakening was about a week into it and then my spidey senses were off the charts. I felt like we were completely being manipulated. Maybe some of that was fear of the unknown. You should boot up media coverage of swine flu back in 2009. It's the exact same scare mongering format. Reuters is the only large media outlet I trust these days.

iheartthed May 27, 2020 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdxtex (Post 8934445)
That's the rational attitude. Take reasonable precaution but otherwise carry on. My awakening was about a week into it and then my spidey senses were off the charts. I felt like we were completely being manipulated. Maybe some of that was fear of the unknown. You should boot up media coverage of swine flu back in 2009. It's the exact same scare mongering format. Reuters is the only large media outlet I trust these days.

This may depend on how badly your community was impacted. I think knowing people who were infected (or killed) by it will disabuse you of the idea that it is a manufactured controversy. Throughout April in NYC there was also a constant rhythm of ambulance sirens that put the human toll on it. Today there are absolutely far fewer ambulance sirens today than there were a month ago.

mhays May 27, 2020 10:59 PM

The goal is for way fewer people to be infected at all. Not just to delay, though that's important too.

Handro May 27, 2020 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by destroycreate (Post 8934415)
Idk...we just got to stop living in chronic fear and begin to adapt to living with it. I had non-stop anxiety and nightmares for the first 6 weeks living in fear of the virus, to the point where I was looking at strangers like they were the enemy. I had panic attacks going out. And as of late, I've just learned to let this go...I cannot over-control a pretty hopeless situation anymore. I am not going to leave FedEx boxes in the sun for 6 hours before taking inside, handle my groceries in gloves or lysol my clothes upcon coming home. It's just too stressful. I'm leaving it in fates hands and am praying once or if I get it, I don't require hospitalization.

Look - a vaccine isn't coming any time soon. Low infection rate =/= ZOMG VIRUS IS DISAPPEARING!!!11 People keep on getting confused with this. In my opinion, we need to let infections slowly simmer vs boil over (aka hospitals get overwhelmed), so that we can slowly get people exposed to this virus. Shielding us all from it does what? Prolongs it, and causes more harm all around in the long run. As long as someone on the planet has the virus and it's as contagious as it is, we're fucked.

So with that said, I'm going to do the following:
- Socialize in small amounts and infrequently. But I need to see my friends for my mental health at least a couple of times a month. I simply cannot be all alone at home, anymore. It's a risk I've accepted.
- Will dine out at establishments because, well, I fucking can, I love it, and we should support our local businesses and I'm not going to hear anybody telling me that's a crime. I will however only patron places that are doing it smart and taking precautions - I want to see masks on staff, I want to see tables spaced out, etc.
- Avoid seeing my elders or anybody who is immunocompromised.
- Will try to live as normal as I can, but sanitize constantly (when I'm out, I probably wash my hands or use sanitizer every 5 min), and wear my mask publically at all times.

I'm not trying to lose out on the best time of my life here (30s). I'm SO over everybody policing each other and getting all up in one another's business.

I’m taking a similar approach. Although being a little more cautious (waiting to socialize or dine out for a while longer). The way this whole thing has affected my view of American society may be irrevocable, however. I/we always new there was a certain undercurrent of anti-science/anti-decency folks out there, but I’m absolutely disgusted by the selfishness, the stupidity, and the callousness. The way this has been politicized is revolting. I would truly consider leaving the country to live near my sister and her family in Europe if I could convince my girlfriend to join me. Our country’s zero-sum approach to living in a society has reached its tipping point in my eyes.

pdxtex May 27, 2020 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed (Post 8934458)
This may depend on how badly your community was impacted. I think knowing people who were infected (or killed) by it will disabuse you of the idea that it is a manufactured controversy. Throughout April in NYC there was also a constant rhythm of ambulance sirens that put the human toll on it. Today there are absolutely far fewer ambulance sirens today than there were a month ago.

I don't think it's made up. We know two people who got it righthere in Portland. One girl is still recovering. You bring up my exact point though. Sensationalism drove the narrative. What happened in NYC or Italy is tragic but understandable if you calmly decipher their causes. But what happened in NYC was front page news every single day for two months has very little in common with this diseases progression in the other 90 percent of the country. I don't know. Part of me thinks we vastly overreacted and part of thinks we acted with prudence. I'm still wrestling with that opinion. Lockdown NYC? Yes, definitely. Lockdown Marquette, MI? No probably not. We lucked out though. If something truly virulent does manage to come along, we'll know what to do.

iheartthed May 28, 2020 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdxtex (Post 8934491)
I don't think it's made up. We know two people who got it righthere in Portland. One girl is still recovering. You bring up my exact point though. Sensationalism drove the narrative. What happened in NYC or Italy is tragic but understandable if you calmly decipher their causes. But what happened in NYC was front page news every single day for two months has very little in common with this diseases progression in the other 90 percent of the country. I don't know. Part of me thinks we vastly overreacted and part of thinks we acted with prudence. I'm still wrestling with that opinion. Lockdown NYC? Yes, definitely. Lockdown Marquette, MI? No probably not. We lucked out though. If something truly virulent does manage to come along, we'll know what to do.

But, at one point, it was an Italy problem in the minds of New Yorkers. And, before that, it was a China problem in the minds of Italians. When we realized it was here and we had no way to track the spread, locking everything down was the right call.

jd3189 May 28, 2020 12:11 AM

CNN and other news sources have been making note of the 100,00 death toll in the US being the highest in the world. Whether we have to account for proportions in populations or not, it seems once again that we’re #1 in something so worthless in my opinion. There’s a good chance that we’ll have to deal with this virus for the rest of the year, maybe even to the next.

Handro May 28, 2020 12:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdxtex (Post 8934491)
I don't think it's made up. We know two people who got it righthere in Portland. One girl is still recovering. You bring up my exact point though. Sensationalism drove the narrative. What happened in NYC or Italy is tragic but understandable if you calmly decipher their causes. But what happened in NYC was front page news every single day for two months has very little in common with this diseases progression in the other 90 percent of the country. I don't know. Part of me thinks we vastly overreacted and part of thinks we acted with prudence. I'm still wrestling with that opinion. Lockdown NYC? Yes, definitely. Lockdown Marquette, MI? No probably not. We lucked out though. If something truly virulent does manage to come along, we'll know what to do.

I think when faced with a totally new threat the country was not prepared for (oddly, since the last two presidential administrations specially prepared for it...) governors around the country had to act fast with limited information and resources. We still don’t know everything about how it spreads, all the risk factors, the actual death rate; so I commend any leaders that took swift action with great political risk. I don’t understand those segments of our society convinced this is some political conspiracy, as no politician is going to be eager to shut down economies and risk their political lives if they don’t feel 100% compelled to do so. The politically motivated thing is to ignore the human factor of the disease and pretend it doesn’t exist, and use whatever media tools available to spin/ignore any deaths.

Unfortunately the leaders who did their duty as public servants may very well lose their jobs for it, while those who use political mechanisms to try and spin it away have a good chance of being rewarded.

mhays May 28, 2020 5:47 AM

A politician is supposed to be a leader, and listen to the smartest people on any given subject.

Some led, some didn't and haven't.

Politically, who knows, but there's no major backlash in my state save some wingnuts.

hauntedheadnc May 28, 2020 1:30 PM

Rebuilding America: Asheville area tourism comeback might take years but upswing begins immediately
By John Boyle

Quote:

ASHEVILLE — Normally, springtime is a frenetic shopping season at Mast General Store, a downtown landmark known for creaking wood floors, old-timey candy and a wide range of outdoors gear.

But the COVID-19 pandemic shut the business down, as it did for most retail operations in North Carolina.

“I had right around 45 staff members before this hit, and I'm the only one standing at this point," General Manager Carmen Cabrera said this spring, stressing that they planned to bring all furloughed workers back.

Nestled in the Blue Ridge Mountains and home to the 8,000-acre Biltmore Estate, Asheville has established itself as a tourists mecca, with vibrant arts, culinary and craft beer scenes complementing the natural beauty. Normally, the area hosts 11 million visitors annually, and those tourists pump about $2 billion in sales into the economy.

***

"Optimistically, I hope it will pick up at least by the end of summer," said H.P. Patel, president of BCA Hotels, which operates the Best Western and Glo Hotels in East Asheville. "Realistically, it might take a few years to get back to the occupancy levels we were at."

Occupancy at his hotels for April hovered around 10% or less, compared to 85% last year.

***

At the Biltmore Estate, which features a 250-room French chateau finished in 1895 by George Vanderbilt, company officials certainly hope Brown is right. The estate, which boasts a winery and two hotels, temporarily closed for about six weeks, and reopened on a limited basis May 9.

Normally, the estate draws 1.4 million visitors annually, but officials there said once visitation stopped, sales dropped by 95%, and the company had to temporarily furlough 2,200 of 2,500 employees.

***

Robert Li, a professor at Temple University in Philadelphia, says the "really scary part of this pandemic is its open-endedness — we literally don’t know how long it’s going to last."

The director of Temple's U.S.-Asia Center for Tourism & Hospitality Research, Li said the SARS respiratory pandemic in 2003 and the Great Recession of 2009, also caused serious economic losses. The former caused a .4% decline in tourism revenues, the latter a 4% drop.

"This year, the forecast is for a decline of anywhere between 20-30%," Li said. "Some (models) are even more, in the 45-70% range."

He foresees "probably a long and slow (recovery) compared to any of the declines we’ve seen in the past."
Source.

bnk May 28, 2020 3:46 PM

Since so many here are obsessed with the inflated number of 100K. We reached a new milestone. 40M unemployed.


https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...navirus-may-23

Over 2.1M Americans filed for unemployment last week, pushing total job losses to 40M from coronavirus lockdown

Fox Business ^ | May 28 2020| Megan Henney



More than 2.1 million laid-off workers applied for unemployment last week, the Labor Department reported on Thursday, as the coronavirus pandemic, and the ensuing economic lockdown, continued to wreak havoc on the jobs market.

...

The new report, which covers the week ending May 23, pushes the 10-week total of losses since states directed residents to stay at home and forced nonessential businesses to close to 40 million, a rate of unemployment unseen since the Great Depression.

...

MolsonExport May 28, 2020 4:17 PM

Do you ever wonder what the unemployment level might become if, after opening everything back up like before, the death toll reaches 1 million or more? Would there be economic losses from this death toll? Would there still be (perhaps many more) millions of people avoiding stores and restricting social interactions as much as possible?

mhays May 28, 2020 6:24 PM

Panic...if we hadn't gotten the numbers under some control, people would be panicking and staying home, and a lot of companies would be doing their own shutdowns.

iheartthed May 28, 2020 6:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8935159)
Panic...if we hadn't gotten the numbers under some control, people would be panicking and staying home, and a lot of companies would be doing their own shutdowns.

The private sector is what set everything in motion. Not a single state had announced a stay-at-home order before the NBA suspended its season. Tech companies in Seattle and San Francisco started closing their offices even before that.

Pedestrian May 28, 2020 7:00 PM

Quote:

As States Reopen, the Boss Wants to Know What You’re Up To This Weekend
By Chip Cutter and Thomas Gryta
May 28, 2020 11:01 am ET

Companies have a new question for employees: Any plans this weekend?

As U.S. states reopen, sending residents back to work as well as social life, employers are urging workers to be cautious when they are off duty, and at least one local official has begun advising employers to ask staffers about activities in their off hours. Some companies are concerned that the many safeguards put in place at work to limit the spread of the coronavirus—from policies requiring masks on the job to separated desks—could be undone if workers are taking risks off the job.

Yet employers have to tread carefully, legal authorities say, making sure to exert influence without violating employee privacy.

Protecting workers as many cities begin to loosen restrictions is only the latest challenge employers must navigate as businesses settle into a new normal rife with uncertainties.

Neil Blumenthal, co-chief executive of eyewear seller Warby Parker, held an employee town hall last week in which he also reminded the New York company’s roughly 3,000 employees to be on guard during the Memorial Day weekend.

. . . In St. Louis, the county executive is pushing for companies to ask workers about off-work activities over the weekend in reaction to crowds apparently violating government guidelines.

Companies have limited sway over employees’ lives outside the workplace, legal experts say. Bosses can educate workers about the potential risks and ask them to stay away from the office but can’t bar them from going to a bar, a party, or using mass transit in their personal time.

The New York Stock Exchange has asked those returning to its historic trading floor in lower Manhattan to avoid arriving via public transportation. Floor traders must also sign a liability waiver that prevents them from suing the NYSE if they get infected at the exchange . . . .

Employees generally have no legal obligation to disclose information such as how they spend their personal time, employment lawyers say. But there are ethical considerations when it comes to things like whether a family member has become ill, workplace experts say, so that managers can alert an employee’s colleagues . . . .

In a roughly 40-page guide published for employees, VF Corp., owner of brands such as Vans and the North Face, advises staffers to avoid close contact with people outside of their homes and to stay away from mass gatherings to maintain proper distancing. It also recommends they avoid ride-sharing, car-pooling or public transportation, if possible, and to steer clear of lunch and after-work gatherings. The company does temperature screenings and asks employees a series of questions verbally as they enter its distribution centers and other facilities . . . .

“We’re not just responsible for ourselves, but my actions have a direct relationship to your comfort and safety, so we need to think about each other, and those team members that we will come back in contact with,” Mr. Rendle said. “It does apply when you go somewhere on a weekend: Where did you go, who did you come into contact with—anybody test positive?”

What’s more, employers must trust that staffers will be truthful about their behaviors before arriving at work. Many likely will, said Larry Gadea, CEO of workplace software platform Envoy Inc., but he warns that some employees may make mistakes or outright lie.

Envoy is developing a questionnaire product for companies to inquire about workers’ symptoms that day and whether they have recently been near someone diagnosed with Covid-19. The company’s technology is already used in many offices to check-in visitors, track packages and assign meeting rooms.

Employers want to take necessary precautions, Mr. Gadea said, but risks exist beyond the employee’s own behavior. If a household has two adults going to separate workplaces, each company could have different protocols for preventing infections. “If you go to your workplace, and your spouse goes to their workplace, how do you know that everything is OK at their workplace?” he said. “None of this is perfect. It’s all about minimizing risk” . . . .
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-bos...=hp_lead_pos10

And don't forget that employers these days are sometimes checking out employee social media, so if you post a picture of yourself in a crowd at a pool party, for example . . . . .

glowrock May 28, 2020 8:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtown,man (Post 8933955)
I actually want to publically apologize to Glowrock. He sent me a *very* respectful and cordial message on here.

I guess it is a reminder that we might disagree on the edges, or even on very large parts of the stay-home vs open up groups, but 99% of people don't want anyone to die and 99% of people don't want people to go into ruin because of the economic fallout.

Apology accepted. Thank you.

Aaron (Glowrock)


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