I have coworkers who are convinced that the delays on buildings like the Atlantic are proof that the building intown was just a phase and everything is going to collapse and be abandoned in a few years. The builders aren't helping this perception any by announcing overly aggressive construction schedules. It's funny because when you look at construction at about anytime, there are always delays but people don't notice them. How many suburban housing tracts have come in on time? Most have plenty of delays but because those projects aren't high profile, it isn't noticed.
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Aubie, somebody else -- and it might have been you -- recently compared aggressive builders' announcements to dogs spraying trees to mark their territory and ward off others who might want to share it. I think that was an apt comparison.
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Do your coworkers live in the suburbs, Aubie? If so, that might explain it. I remember when the stockmarket was going crazy in the '98-'00 time period and I wasn't in it and all I could do was pray for a bust because I was so jealous of everyone that was taking advantage.
I think it's too late for the intown movement to collapse. There's too much momentum and I think enough people have already bought in to the idea. Yes, I believe there will be surges, but I think the days of reverse in-migration are over, or even stagnation - at least for the next 15-20 years. |
Judging from building permits and other indicators, highrise condo net absorption in Atlanta (Bhead-MT-DT) will certainly continue to attract buyers in the hundreds, not thousands...but still a decent enough volume to result in several nice buildings being brought to market every year. In 2008, supply coming online will temporarily outpace demand. Midrise and smaller condos will be developed in even greater numbers with supply and demand being closer to equilibrium. But, the real story in Atlanta is continuing single family infill and gentrification, in the thousands of units per year, pushing this sort of development further south in the city.
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I have some anecdotal information that the level of graft and corruption in the Atlanta building permits, is pretty rampant. Anybody else here have thoughts about it? Compared to other big cities?
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As far as 2008 goes, I expect supply and demand to often get out of kilter. Unlike suburban subdivisions that typically deliver units in phases (each of which are usually really just a continual delivery of one home after another instead of them all at once), towers tend to deliver units in a short period of time. The lower floors may be released before the upper floors but in general there isn't that long of a gap between the first and last units. I agree that infill will continue to be a big part of the city's growth. And this doesn't just mean tear downs or squeezing units between lots. Anyone who spends a bit of time looking at existing neighborhoods from above will notice that most neighborhoods have lots of undeveloped fields and pockets. The houses along existing streets might be dense (by the standards of when the neighborhood was developed), there are plenty of gaps where new streets could be added with more houses, not to mention multifamily housing. So far it seems like east Atlanta has been capturing lots of this but I'm amazed at the possibilities in the west and south. It's also interesting to look at what areas are going to gentrify next. The Bluffs, English Avenue, and Vine City are very rough areas with bad reputations but they're also near downtown and logically would feel pressure towards gentrification. When I was looking up a property over there about a month ago, I noticed that many of the houses were owned by investment companies so it looks like the buy up is already happening. |
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Not true. Department stores chains have undergone major industry consolidation over the past 15 years, but that appears to be stabilizing and revenues are growing. There was an article in the New York Times about it a couple of months ago (http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstra...80994DE404482), which explained how department store earnings growth is now outpacing specialty apparel store growth, because they can respond to fashion trends much faster than stores like the Gap who do everything in-house. Astute buyers can keep department stores on the cutting edge, without being dependent on private label apparel. |
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Starbucks sign up at Twelve
All will be happy to know I passed a banner sign today that said Starbucks coming soon next to the Floral shop in the street level space of Twelve.
So whoever mentioned those non-compete restrictions ... guess things changed. |
It is possible that the retail space in Twelve is not subject to Atlantic Station's non-compete rules since the space is likely leased out by Novare rather than Atlantic Station. If that is the case, expect future buildings to have in their sales contract with the independent developer to include a clause that they will not rent retail space to companies that compete with existing retailers in Atlantic Station.
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They were going to put a Starbucks in Twelve and then they didn't and said that there would only be one in the Target. I guess they changed their minds again. That's great... Twelve is so bare right now on the 17th side. Besides, Target Starbucks aren't exactly complete Starbucks usually... they don't sell/take Starbucks giftcards and usually don't have the same food/pastry collection.
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I find it hard to believe that a noncompete clause exist at Atlantic Station. That sounds very contradictory to everything happening their and furthermore, how do you define who competes with who? Retail is so competetive overall that restaurants compete with starbucks compete with ice cream shops compete with Publix so this idea seems utterly ridiculous and just a rumor floating about IMO.
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In Atlantic Station's case, it very well may be that Publix would not agree to open a sorely needed grocery store unless they were guaranteed exclusive control of the grocery market in Atlantic Station. |
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Maybe the non-compete clause, if it exists past just for Publix, is only for big-box?
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Instead of continuing to debate the merits of such agreements and so forth, why not have who ever started this RUMOR step to the plate and produce some actual facts to back it up. Otherwise what’s the point? The continuation of debating the merits only adds fire to the existence of such.
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