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-   -   How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City? (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=242036)

JManc Jun 22, 2020 4:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 8958677)
I’m not around people who are at risk from this, and those people shouldn’t be out and about more than is absolutely necessary.

How do you know? Just because you don't associate with people over the ripe old age of 50 doesn't mean they many not have issues that might make them more susceptible to CV-19 than you. Not everyone is forthcoming about their medical history. Like iheartthed mentioned just above, there are long term consequences that are unknown.

BEER Jun 22, 2020 6:50 PM

The daily death counts have dropped considerably. April 23rd recorded the highest at 2,693 compared to 267 yesterday. Yesterday was Sunday. Sundays have the lowest number recorded bc of government closures and lag in reporting. Mondays are usually the highest of the week that trickles down to the lowest on Sunday. There is a pattern. The trend is steady and it is downwards. Even though yesterday was a Sunday, it is the lowest daily count since March 23rd with 180 deaths. March 24th had 268.

eschaton Jun 22, 2020 8:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BEER (Post 8959095)
The daily death counts have dropped considerably. April 23rd recorded the highest at 2,693 compared to 267 yesterday. Yesterday was Sunday. Sundays have the lowest number recorded bc of government closures and lag in reporting. Mondays are usually the highest of the week that trickles down to the lowest on Sunday. There is a pattern. The trend is steady and it is downwards. Even though yesterday was a Sunday, it is the lowest daily count since March 23rd with 180 deaths. March 24th had 268.

To quibble, case/death counts tend to peak in Tuesday - there seems to be a lag of around a day due to the weekend.

Also, given it takes around 2-3 weeks for new cases to proceed to death (if they do die), it makes sense that we seem to have hit an all-time low now, given we were at a lull in case counts a few weeks back.

chris08876 Jun 22, 2020 10:32 PM

Nail salons are open in NJ. Husbands all over tax heavy NJ are back to having their hard earned money disappearing on hand knives.

And they ain't even happy with them a few hours later.

dave8721 Jun 27, 2020 6:24 AM

South Florida ICU's are now at 93% capacity. All bars now effectively re-closed in Florida (no alcohol allowed). Beaches have re-closed through 4th of July weekend. The whole re-opening thing didn't go so well.

BEER Jun 27, 2020 2:02 PM

New Jersey has now surpassed New York as the worst hit state with a death rate of 1,695 per million.

New York: 1,615/million
Connecticut: 1,208
Massachusetts: 1,163
Rhode Island: 875
D.C.: 774
Lousiana: 688
Michigan: 614
Illinois: 556
Delaware: 521
Maryland: 520
Pennsylvania: 519
.
.
.
Texas: 82

Daily death count continues to fall. The 7 day moving average is at a low at 604. The last time the 7 day moving average was this low was March 31st.

mhays Jun 27, 2020 4:28 PM

Hopefully the death count won't rise like the case counts are rising. But I suspect the US average will get back to the four figures in the next few weeks.

Partial reversals like Texas closing bars will help, but that's probably too little, too late.

BEER Jun 27, 2020 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays (Post 8964695)
Hopefully the death count won't rise like the case counts are rising. But I suspect the US average will get back to the four figures in the next few weeks.

Partial reversals like Texas closing bars will help, but that's probably too little, too late.

Let me tell you, I certainly hope not. America is old, the death count will rise easily like it did in Italy. I hope I'm wrong and that some of the coverage is for that, coverage. Coverage is/are clicks. As smart as we all think we are, would you not be the first person ever tricked in history?

From what I have personally read is that there is an increase in testing. The testing has indicated a higher infection rate. Those that are infected are in the age range of 20-39. Those in the 20-39 range don't die from the Covid. Some do. Of those that die, in the 20-39 age range, what other Comorbities did they have? Did they have any? If yes, what were they? If not, why not?

I guess I'll wait until real journalist decide to look at these simple questions.

austlar1 Jun 28, 2020 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BEER (Post 8964609)
New Jersey has now surpassed New York as the worst hit state with a death rate of 1,695 per million.

New York: 1,615/million
Connecticut: 1,208
Massachusetts: 1,163
Rhode Island: 875
D.C.: 774
Lousiana: 688
Michigan: 614
Illinois: 556
Delaware: 521
Maryland: 520
Pennsylvania: 519
.
.
.
Texas: 82

Daily death count continues to fall. The 7 day moving average is at a low at 604. The last time the 7 day moving average was this low was March 31st.

But hospitalization rates are soaring in many areas of the country. Here in Austin all hospitalization categories (inpatient numbers, ICU beds in use by covid patients, and vent use) have more than doubled in the past ten days, and the number of new positive test results has almost doubled (currently 7,825 in Travis County and around 11,000 in the metro) in the same period. About 40% of the hospitalized patients are now under age 50. Many seem to be released after a short hospital stay, but older covid patients are remaining in the hospital and many go on ventilators. So far, deaths (about 160 in the metro) have not shown a huge increase, but, with the numbers currently hospitalized, that seems likely to change going forward. Meanwhile, local hospitals will stop doing elective surgeries and other inpatient procedures in the near term due to rising rates of hospitalization.

mhays Jun 28, 2020 3:24 AM

That infection rate for those tested has also been rising in some states.

There's no doubt that we're seeing a big increase in actual cases. There's also no doubt that actual cases are vastly higher than what's counted by tests...only a small fraction of Americans have been tested.

dave8721 Jun 28, 2020 4:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BEER (Post 8964609)
New Jersey has now surpassed New York as the worst hit state with a death rate of 1,695 per million.

New York: 1,615/million
Connecticut: 1,208
Massachusetts: 1,163
Rhode Island: 875
D.C.: 774
Lousiana: 688
Michigan: 614
Illinois: 556
Delaware: 521
Maryland: 520
Pennsylvania: 519
.
.
.
Texas: 82

Daily death count continues to fall. The 7 day moving average is at a low at 604. The last time the 7 day moving average was this low was March 31st.

Deaths lag way behind cases. In Florida's case the deaths peaked the first time around a full month after cases peaked and started dropping.

BEER Jun 29, 2020 6:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dave8721 (Post 8965138)
Deaths lag way behind cases. In Florida's case the deaths peaked the first time around a full month after cases peaked and started dropping.

Deaths do lag cases. Confirmed cases are way up. The number of cases are irrelevant without the most important information associated with cases. For some reason, this isn't widely reported. It would be helpful to the public if the facts were given to us. What is the age group that is getting infected? How many more tests are available today versus April.

It has been 5 weeks since Memorial Day and the 7 day moving average for daily deaths has gone down, way down. On Memorial Day, May 25th the 7 day moving average was standing at 1,136 deaths. Today, June 29th, the 7 day moving average is 596.

Florida, on May 8th the 7 day moving average of daily deaths was 51. It has gone down since then. The trend line is basically flat with a slight downward trend. Now daily deaths in the 7 day moving average is 36.

Florida's deaths per million is 160. For Florida to reach New York level of deaths, the death rate would have to multiply by a factor of over 10 times. New York deaths per million is 1,618!

Yuri Jun 29, 2020 6:12 PM

São Paulo will reopen its bars and hairdressers next Monday. Hospitals and field hospitals has been near capacity since late March, but they manage to handle things. There were no collapse as they were afraid in late May.

Overall death toll in the state (most of it on São Paulo metro area) is close to 14,000, while daily deaths are still on their highest ranging from 300 to 400.

mhays Jun 29, 2020 10:20 PM

My state reports all of that stuff in detail.

New York is a terrible baseline...they got hit at a massive scale. They are a good example of doing the right thing (after making some huge errors) and getting their numbers WAY down.

dave8721 Jun 30, 2020 2:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BEER (Post 8966384)
Deaths do lag cases. Confirmed cases are way up. The number of cases are irrelevant without the most important information associated with cases. For some reason, this isn't widely reported. It would be helpful to the public if the facts were given to us. What is the age group that is getting infected? How many more tests are available today versus April.

It has been 5 weeks since Memorial Day and the 7 day moving average for daily deaths has gone down, way down. On Memorial Day, May 25th the 7 day moving average was standing at 1,136 deaths. Today, June 29th, the 7 day moving average is 596.

Florida, on May 8th the 7 day moving average of daily deaths was 51. It has gone down since then. The trend line is basically flat with a slight downward trend. Now daily deaths in the 7 day moving average is 36.

Florida's deaths per million is 160. For Florida to reach New York level of deaths, the death rate would have to multiply by a factor of over 10 times. New York deaths per million is 1,618!

Florida wont be as bad as NY. Probably no where will be. The disease ran rampant through NY before anyone knew what was going on, masks weren't a thing yet, high population density, mass public transportation use...etc. Also doctors have gotten better at treating it as well. The only thing that might make South Florida bad in particular (but no where near as bad as NYC) is the multi-generational households. I would say the majority of the under 25 population lives with at least their parents and in most cases their grandparents too, especially in hispanic and African American households (the vast majority of South Florida). That under 30 demographic just got infected en masse the last couple weeks by crowding the bars and restaurants. It would be tough for them not to infect the elder generations that live with them.

woodrow Jun 30, 2020 4:32 PM

Blackbird in Chicago has closed permanently - https://chicago.eater.com/2020/6/30/...ality-covid-19 :(

iheartthed Jun 30, 2020 5:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dave8721 (Post 8967202)
Florida wont be as bad as NY. Probably no where will be. The disease ran rampant through NY before anyone knew what was going on, masks weren't a thing yet, high population density, mass public transportation use...etc. Also doctors have gotten better at treating it as well. The only thing that might make South Florida bad in particular (but no where near as bad as NYC) is the multi-generational households. I would say the majority of the under 25 population lives with at least their parents and in most cases their grandparents too, especially in hispanic and African American households (the vast majority of South Florida). That under 30 demographic just got infected en masse the last couple weeks by crowding the bars and restaurants. It would be tough for them not to infect the elder generations that live with them.

Florida concerns me because looks like it is growing much faster than NY. NY took 11 days to go from less than 3k cases/day to +9k cases/day. Florida did that in 5 days, and is still not back under a complete stay-at-home order. NY was under a complete lockdown by the time it hit 9k cases.

The North One Jun 30, 2020 5:21 PM

Pretty sure we have now surpassed the peak new cases that we had months ago and it's almost entirely in the south/southwest.

SteveD Jun 30, 2020 6:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One (Post 8967482)
Pretty sure we have now surpassed the peak new cases that we had months ago and it's almost entirely in the south/southwest.

Yes, US new cases now are the highest they've ever been and the top five states for new cases in recent days are Florida California Texas Arizona and Georgia. The states of the initial worst outbreak up in the northeast aren't even in the top 10 any more. The top 10 is rounded out with other southern states like both the Carolinas, Alabama and Tennessee.

BEER Jul 1, 2020 3:17 PM

The 7 day MA of daily deaths in the U.S. is now down to 581. Monday, Memorial Day, the 7 day MA of daily deaths was 1,155. Memorial Day was 37 days ago. Memorial Day weekend began 40 days ago. Cases are way up, deaths are way down. That is good news, that is the best situation.


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