Its not transit-oriented.

Though it does have a couple of subway stops now. And a couple of bus routes that are passably frequent (15M or better service much of the time)....

Most routes are still mediocre in terms of service and ridership.

The subway is inching it up, so is the regional rail (GO Transit's Barrie Line) which is now mostly 2-way, all-day service, but that's still hourly outside of rush hour.

Its improving, but slowly.

The last year before Covid-19 must have been a big outlier relative to all previous years this century. Based on historic data that I compiled a while ago, between 2001-2018, Toronto expanded by 0.5mn, relative to 1.5mn for London. Melbourne is a slightly different conversation due the size of the area, but it grew by 1.6mn, which would still be above the equally broad GTHA area (1.5mn). I’m not sure about Dallas or NYC.


Two pertinent point to the conversation – which are relevant to most cities in the western world – is not the actual volume of new units, but what the composition of those units are, and the level of affordability. Constructing a spate of one-bedroom units when the demand is for multiple-bedroom units, and at prices detached from reality compounds the housing crisis, erodes confidence in capitalism, and generates completely unnecessary economic and social strife that undermines the efficiency of most major global economies.

Your numbers for the City proper are roughly accurate.

The City of Toronto was just a hair under 2.5M in 2001, when the new census data is out, it will be expected to be ~3M or just a fraction higher.

However, its worth say, that the pace has quickened considerably in the last few years (pre-Covid) with annual growth in the 75,000 range.

Your GTA numbers would also be pretty close at ~1.5M

Of course, if measuring the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), which is roughly the commuter-shed of Toronto, you get growth of between 2.5M-3M over the period 2001-2021. (we'll have to await the exact census numbers. But the GGH was listed as 7.5M in 2001 and was listed at 10.1M in 2019 by Hemson Consulting working for the Province of Ontario.

https://www.hemson.com/wp-content/up...rt-26Aug20.pdf

I won't comment on growth elsewhere, as I haven't studied those numbers.

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If you read growth as a percent of base population though, the GGH has grown roughly by 40% over 20 years

The City of Toronto by about 20% in the same time period. But something like 9% is in the last 5 years.

Foreign buyers represent 5% to 10% in the Toronto market with the vast majority being Canadian who are buying property.

If a multinational wants to store money away it makes much more sense to invest in US properties, it's cheaper and doesn't have all the foreign regulations like land transfer taxes, foreign buyer taxes and AirBNB isn't as regulated as in Vancouver or Toronto has.

Foreign investment of any type is easier in the US than Canada do to less regulations in the US and less taxes

It's not so much multinationals as it is Chinese elite looking for a safe place to invest, because they don't have any safe places to invest domestically. The Chinese stock market is unreliable, and the Chinese real estate is even more inflated than Canada's. Not to mention you can't really buy real estate in China, it's more like a long term lease from the state.

Also, is it 5-10% of current homes owned by foreign buyers? 5-10% of new home sales? 5-10% of new capital flowing into the real estate market? Either way though, 5-10% is not that small and can have a significant influence if those buyers lack restraint in terms of how much they're willing to pay to get a foot in the Canadian real estate market.

My point is that the US has more advantages for Chinese buyers, less taxes to pay when purchasing and more freedom to generate rents/revenue. So if this is the gold of Chinese investors, the US will have more of them than Canada especially Toronto and Vancouver which have more restrictions on buying and using property than the rest of Canada.

Canada's immigrant investor program was much bigger than the US's in per capita terms while it was running. Although that program has been terminated, the 15 years of rising real estate prices that it contributed to could have helped build the perception of Canada being a better investment destination than the US (which experienced the 2008 housing crash), so that Chinese investors are interested in continuing to invest without being able to immigrate. For example, they may send their kids to university in Canada and buy them condos to live in.

I agree that low interest rates, rapid population growth, and high land values (due to Greenbelt, congestion, and lots of downtown jobs), as well as higher construction costs are also factors that are causing Toronto's real estate to be more expensive than in most American cities.

I really can't see any Candian city having more foreign buyers than Americans cities based on all the taxes and regulations when buying property in Canada that the US doesn't have.
If foreign buyers make up 5 to 10% of Toronto and Vancouver I would assume it's 15% to 30% on major American cities

It's no where near that high in nearly any American city with the exception perhaps of Manhattan (not NYC as a whole) and Miami.

Canada has better immigration policies than the US so I would think buying property there would be more of a "guarantee" that it could lead to permanent residency.

Buying property in Canada doesn't help you to get immigration status though

It has to do with taxes. Canada allows foreign buyers to buy poperties with cash and then claim 0 income and thus avoid paying taxes. Its a serious scam, because for two decades, Canadian tax payers have been footing the bill for all the infrastructure and public services needed for the development and construction of these properties, many of which are highrise condos, which are forcing canadians out of their own cities, and eating away at the tax revenue

why would a foreign buyer need to pay Canadian income taxes????. I am pretty sure no country on the earth has income tax on income made outside of the country on a non-citizen or residence.
Explain to me how is more housing supply forcing Canadian out of cities which have all been growing in population (ie more Canadian live in our cities than any previous time)
Also since we are building more highrises within city centres and less suburbs we are spending less per capita on infrastructure and public services.

You whole argument contradicts itself and I don't think you understand what a foreign buyer is

You're assuming that the properties bought by foreign buyers are occupied and not simply sitting empty. In the case of chinese buyers, that assumption is wrong. Occupied building goes down, mostly unocuppied building goes up in its place. Obviously this isnt the case for most new construction in Canada, because the cities are still growing, but its pretty common, especially in Vancouver

I'll concede that there are an inordinate number of unoccupied units in some developments, and that that is a point of concern.

But you didn't answer the question about taxes which did seem an odd point on your part.

Perhaps you could elaborate.

One situation where you might want them to pay taxes is if they buy property in Canada, and the wife, kids and/or grandparents are moved into the house and using Canadian services and programs, but claim zero income, while the husband has his primary residence in a foreign country and is continuing to earn large amounts of money there.

We are talking about income taxes.
Everyone pays property taxes and other fees in Canada and foreign buyers in some cities have to pay a foreign buyer taxes.
My point is in Canada you have much more fees and taxes to pay when buying property than compared to the US and the US would be a better place to store your money in property than Canada.

Toronto and Vancouver has near record low vacancy rates, so a negligible amount are sitting empty.
Vancouver has an vacant home tax and a grand total of 787 properties were considered empty in 2019
https://globalnews.ca/news/6523554/e...-results-2019/

Canada was accepting about 2500 applications per year through its investor immigrant program a decade ago. These were not admitted because the families were refugees or job offers, but simply because they had a lot of money. They brought an average of 2.6 family members along per application, so about 9000 immigrants per year.

The US had a similar program, but it seems like the requirements were stricter and it was only a pathway for possible (rather than guaranteed) permanent residency. It granted around 3500 applications per year a decade ago (barely more than Canada despite 9-10x the population), and I'm not sure how many family members were admitted per investor, nor how many of them were ultimately granted permanent residency. After Canada's program was terminated, US numbers increased to 10,000 applications granted per year in the 2010s.

Texas apartment rentals are booming, driving up the cost for tenants in Houston

https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/a...double-digits/

It could be construed as disingenuous to bring up the GGH in the conversation around city construction, when the GGH covers a very large area (20x that of London) covering areas with very little infrastructure or connective interaction to Toronto. There is little to dispute about the growth of Toronto and other parts of Canada, but it is far from alone in experiencing strong growth.

More important to the conversation is how much new or poorly allocated new housing is being delivered relative to population growth in cities.