Surprisingly in Florida suicides were down for 2020 despite the high unemployment.

despite predictions that lockdowns and WFH would cause divorce rates to skyrocket, the available data we have says that they actually plummeted.

at the same, marriage rates have also plummeted as A LOT of couples have postponed their wedding plans.


Divorces and Marriages Tumbled in U.S. During Covid, Study Shows

I'm sure that's also related to lockdowns, as couples are either unwilling or unable to access lawyers and courts at the moment. Basically any activity that requires one to go out and actively do something or interact with people has plummeted.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit a of a divorce bump later in the year from pent up demand though.

Domestic violence is also way up.

i like being alone for the most part. video games, music, walks, movies ect. im real into nature and technology. its hard to become a incel in these days, except people in their 20's can be real lonely or depressed. your probably more likely to go insane working too much then being lonely you whole life though.

They wouldn’t ever have happened during the pandemic, but rather afterwards.

There continues to be a midnight curfew (largely but not always enforced) because obviously you can’t catch Covid until 12:01am. Otherwise Miami seems to be largely normal when you need it to be. Masks in shops, gyms and Ubers but restaurants and bars are functioning much as normal.

Actually I think they’re all just meeting up with Tinder matches and saving lots of money by going straight to Netflix & chill.

meet in the middle --

i took this in bay ridge brooklyn friday -- sigh:


https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/sf...2DwN-7zw=w2400

Sigh, we need that kind of effort for Chicago’s Uptown and Congress Theatres....

Guessing this refers to the one that Trump signed? Because the one coming next probably won't be bipartisan.

Very low case counts, positivity rates, and hospitalization numbers in New Orleans have allowed for relaxed restrictions. Indoor bar service capped at 25% capacity and indoor gatherings of up to 75 people and outdoor gatherings of up to 150 people are now allowed.

I know that some people here just aren't going to accept this, but mark my words:

As vaccinations ramp up, we are going to see a DRAMATIC decline in hospitalizations and deaths. Now, if you want to count cases, go ahead and count cases. But at some point you will be scratching your heads thinking, "why am I still keeping track of case numbers when very few people are being hospitalized and deaths are way down?"

That will be the impact of the vaccine. :tup: I applaud America's scientific community and the drug companies that worked so quickly to create these life-saving vaccines. And already a "booster" for variants is being worked on (frankly not necessary at this point, but that's another discussion)

I'd thank the world's scientific community. The US has had the largest role I believe, but others have played big roles.

The vaccines are having a great effect, but we still need to guard against the rise of new variants. That's much easier if we can keep infections down, including younger people who can infect others.

We’re not going to “guard” against anything longer term.

Pretty soon everyone over 50 will be vaccinated, and the risk is serious illness for anyone younger than that is so vanishingly small that the danger is passed. There is zero chance that anyone will be wearing a mask in 6 months, maybe even 3 months time. Even people who are actually sick at the time should probably just stay home instead of going out with a mask on, though I suspect some will adopt the East Asian practice.

Unless we dramatically speed up vaccinations, we'll probably still be wearing masks in 3 months. We're trying to avoid a variant spreading widely that the current vaccines are not effective against. It doesn't matter that most people of a certain age group are vaccinated if the virus is still rapidly spreading and mutating. The major risk right now is a setback due to that situation.

Existing vaccines are effective against the UK variant and that is the one becoming dominant.

I wouldn’t worry about it, but of course one can’t underestimate the lengths that governments will go to to maintain a sense of panic. In the UK this is mainly about diverting public attention from the sorry state of the healthcare system. In the US it was mostly about getting rid of Trump, but now he’s gone so things can return to normal by summer.

There are other variants of concern.

But they are not the ones that scientists believe will become dominant. And if that is the case, they will not spread widely enough to justify this continued bullshit.

We don't know that. That is why we all need to do everything humanly possible to stop this from spreading more and giving it opportunity to mutate. If it means wearing a mask for 3 months to be done with this for good, wear the fucking mask.

Brazil is on its worst hour, surpassing the July-August peak. Avg daily death above 1,000 for 35 days straight and ICUs are no longer available in several states.

São Paulo state reached today 60,000 deaths (for 45 million population). Currently 7,000 patients are on UCIs all over the state. In Brazil, the number of deaths is at 257k while 9 million doses have been administered so far.

Indoor stuff open now. At 25-50% capacity depending on the type.

Almost 20% vaccinated with 1 dose, and almost 10% fully vaccinated with 2 doses.

We are never going to be done with this for good. Covid will always be around. The vulnerable will get annual vaccines and everyone else will just deal with it.

Mutations generally head in the direction of more transmissible but less severe symptoms (which makes it more transmissible). These are the traits that are selected for by natural selection.

This is the problem. Our ultra-scared society will ALWAYS find a reason to give the government too much power.

New varients!

Memorial day weekend is coming, super spreader events!

Fourth of July, super spreader!

Halloween, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Christmas...

There will always be a reason for a politician to claim more power and for the media to scare healthy 35-year-olds into being afraid of having a drink with their friends.

I wear a mask in my building, in stores, in restaurants until I get my drink, and outside. As soon as the weather warms up, no more mask outside.

My question for folks; at what metric would you personally decide there is no need for a mask or any other mitigating activity? Is it 100% vaccinated (good luck with that), zero deaths (again, not gonna happen)?

^ Exactly.

Guess what folks - people are going to die of Covid next year. Maybe 40-50k in the US, which would be a similar number to seasonal flu. Are we going to have social distancing and masks and all the rest again?

If we do then I’m done with society.

No. The problem is that we have a global pandemic caused by a highly contagious virus. The government should do what it needs to do to stop the pandemic. And it shouldn't stop until it has been solved.

^ I think the point that many are making is that there is no such thing as "stopping" the pandemic.

Unless one has been living under a rock this whole time, it's pretty much accepted that COVID will never be eradicated. It's not going to be like Smallpox (nor does it need to be, it's not even a fraction as deadly--Smallpox carried a 30% mortality rate!!!!!!!).

We have to learn to live with the virus and vaccinate ourselves, perhaps yearly, just like Influenza. And I'm guessing you weren't hiding in your home with a mask on prior to 2020 when Influenza was infecting and killing people every winter. Did many here even get their yearly Influenza vaccine prior to 2020? I did.

So yes, we do need these mitigation measures for a while longer--masking, social distancing, etc because most people haven't been vaccinated. But once a majority of our population has either gotten COVID or the vaccine, these measures are no longer needed although the fringe elements of our society with severe germaphobia and personality disorders will probably continue to push them for a while longer.

We have not vaccinated ourselves. We can have this discussion after that has happened.

Another barrier to getting this pandemic under control:

Ignorance and mistrust.

I see countless patients and many of them just don't want to or plan to get the COVID vaccine. I try my best to convince them that it's very important, but some people just aren't having it. What a mess....sigh....

I know that if mask mandates are rescinded, I sure as hell won't go anywhere where there might be unmasked people until I'm vaccinated. (Fortunately, UChicago has actually increased masking requirements in the last few weeks due to the new variants, https://goforward.uchicago.edu/feb-10-email-update/).

What does "solved" mean?

r<1

No, we're all collectively having that conversation now, not later. Biden said yesterday we should all be able to get the vaccine by late May.... That's less than three months. It's time to start planning for the new post-pandemic world now. My condo is listed, and waiting for a renter. As soon as I have one, off to Chicago for a while.

You're going to see so many other people moving around and being nomads this summer after things open up.

^^This. This is the thing. Continue "mitigation measures for a while longer." And not even that much longer, at least in the US. Vaccination rates are up and every indication is that they will continue to rise. The current 7 day rolling average is at a 1.9 million doses per day. Even another 4-6 weeks will make a huge difference in the US. We are heading into a situation in late March, early April where it won't be a lack of vaccine, but a lack of manpower to give all the shots. We are so close. Let's not fuck it up (looking at you Texas).

And washing your hands, minimizing social contact with a wide swath of people, wearing a mask in appropriate situations really should not be that hard. It sucks, but let's work to make covid like the flu. You don't need to be a shut in. I am not and I have been very careful.

There is nothing to talk about until this is brought under control. If you loved the experience of this past year, then you're going to be in heaven if we jump the gun and declare this over only to revert back because we did so prematurely.

Yup. I'm pretty sure that the powers that be realize that the American public is about bursting at the seams now, ready for post-pandemic life after the vaccine. If they were hard to keep "under control" in 2020, it will be damn near impossible to do so in 2021.

So you're moving to Chicago? Awesome, where are you planning to move to?

It's a bit complicated. My company is tech-based, and we can do long-term remote work now. So, heading to Chicago until late Summer, then might hop across a few international locations this fall before coming back and doing Miami next winter. I have family in Chicago and have been visiting since I was a kid. It's basically my home away from home.

It's fine to talk about things, but not to do anything until we can rule out ill effects at a a sigma or two...

Maybe that was misstated. In regards to whether the government should be rolling back policy to mitigate the spread of the virus, there isn't anything to talk about. But if people want to start making post-pandemic plans then go for it. I've been doing that since this crap started. :)

Thank you for the quantifiable goal.

Now SIGSEGV, you're gonna have to dumb this down to my level...

How does r<1 compare to say an average flu season? (If the question doesn't make sense I don't know what to say lol)

I so agree:

https://sf.curbed.com/2020/6/15/2129...id-coronavirus

The seasonal flu is about r = 1. Or, for every infected person, they pass it to one other person. COVID is believed to be anywhere from r = 2 to r = 6. They don't really know for sure since it's a new virus, but based on behavior it's probably quite a bit above 2. If r is less than 1, that means the virus is disappearing. This is what should start to happen when the vaccine gets us to "herd immunity".

Yup, and public water fountains.

Thank you.

Now, here is my question/concern:

During a bad flu season, we do nothing different. No masks, social distancing, restrictions, etc. So at what point, or how bad does a flu season have to be to make us do those things? I ask this because let's say Covid goes to r=1.4? Its worse than the flu, but as I said, we never did anything different for the flu, so why are we only going to declare mission accomplished when we get to flu levels, why not slightly higher than flu levels?

I hope that point/question makes sense.

I think a typical flu season has r> 1 for a relatively short time (the winter, when cases rise), and r<~ 1 the rest of the time (when cases fall).

Yes, it makes sense. First, the flu has a widely available vaccine. Anyone who wants a flu vaccine can usually get one. Second, much has been made of the fact that COVID only has a mortality rate of between 1-3%, but that's 10-30 times more deadly than the flu. So, COVID is 1) much more easily transmissible than the flu, 2) much more deadly, and 3) does not have a widely available vaccine.

I AM vaccinated and I got my second Pfizer shot over 2 weeks ago so I should be getting the full effect. But I do not find wearing a mask any sort of difficulty and plan to continue doing so in public until people start asking me "what's COVID?" and I will not be patronizing places where there are unmasked people indoors because I consider such people inconsiderate and uncaring about the welfare of others as well as themselves.

The current vaccine is less than 100% effective against existing mutations of the virus and at any point in time, anywhere on the planet, a new mutation could pop up that's almost 100% resistant to the vaccine and even the vaccinated could be exposed to it unknowingly. So what makes sense to me is to continue with "layered" protection. Sure, get vaccinated, but also do the other things that are really no big inconvenience or bother.

At the same time, go ahead and do the things that really matter to you such as travel. And as a society, once most of us are vaccinated (or those who refuse to get vaccinated get infected and either die or recover with immunity), we can return the economy to a normal status, allowing however for those of us who want to remain careful to do so. I, for example, expect from now on I will ALWAYS wear a KN95 mask on public transit or in indoor crowds. At the very least, I'll get fewer colds.

Well, people get flu vaccines every year (but they don't always work, and only half of people bother). But there are some mitigations in places where people are more susceptible (hospitals, communal living areas) during flu season.

COVID has a ~5-10 greater hospitalization rate than the flu, and hospitals are often somewhat burdened during flu season (in fact, probably the size of the burden during flu season sets hospital capacities, to some extent). A sustained r=1.4 COVID every year probably overwhelms hospitals with patients after a few months, but maybe not. Depends on length of stay and stuff like that. It's probably better for everyone just to get vaccinated every year, if necessary.

Right, I'm more concerned about spreading it than getting it at my age, though having just undergone a 14-day quarantine due to exposure (my wife tested positive, we successfully isolated from each other within our unit and I never tested positive), I sure don't want to do that again if I don't have to.

Yeah, I might keep wearing a mask on airplanes (when I travel again) forever, since I always seem to get a cold every time I fly.

As Tony Fauci admitted on TV the other day, "Herd Immunity" is not a thing that either exists or doesn't. It's the end point on a continuity so that as more people have either natural (from infection and recovery) or artificial (for vaccination) immunity, "r" declines and approaches (but may never reach) 0. What most virologists believe is that with 70% plus of the population vaccinated, r for this virus will be close enough to 0 that only sporadic outbreaks will occur, more or less like measles now.