in the worst news in all of this CV BS, all of chicago's various st. paddy's day parades and other festivities, including the famous river dyeing, have now been cancelled for this weekend.


guess i'm just gonna have to get drunk at home by myself saturday morning. :(


worst. timing. ever.




as we're accustomed to saying in chicago, "wait 'til next year", i guess:

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9Wg7...1489763683.jpg
source: https://chicago.curbed.com/2017/3/17...me-lapse-video

I was supposed to go to Chicago for St. Paddy's this weekend but had stuff come up. Hopefully next year when this thing has blown over.

not to mention even for young people it is much deadlier than a flu, obviously both are very unlikely to kill a young person but it is possible, the COVID19 is much more likely than almost any other illness a young person can get.

Not to mention even if you dont die you can be in SERIOUS condition, they have people on full ventilators this isnt a joke, if you end up ventilated even as a 24 year old you will probably have permanent lung damage.

The reason I never have and most certainly never will now

So the entire State University of New York and City University of New York (Both are multiples colleges around NY State and City) have now moved to online classes starting March 19th. Classes are excused the next 5 days to get ready for the transition.

However, resources and such are still going to stay open, the library, research labs, etc. :rolleyes::runaway:

To borrow an old naval joke, they’re prisons with a chance of drowning. Or catching something.

The NBA and NHL are both suspending their seasons.

And March madness will be played in empty arenas.

We're in unchartered territory here, at least for anyone currently alive.

Shit is getting real.

They are embargoing tomatoes and mozzarella.









:justkidding:

Montreal has cancelled the world figure skating championship.

Apparently downtown San Francisco is a ghost town (I am taking time off so I don't have to go downtown), and BART ridership is off 25%. I'd bet Muni ridership is also down--all my neighbors were home today, going on how I could see everyone in their pajamas working at their kitchen tables. I will say, though, that I'm going to need to purchase an ergonomic chair if I'm going to work from home.

How do you see what people are wearing at their kitchen tables? I don’t have a kitchen table but now I’ll have to stop leaving the bedroom without dressing (or can you see in there too?)

So when is maximum panic? And when does it become a buying opportunity?

I live in a Victorian and Edwardian neighborhood. All our kitchens and living rooms have big, front-facing bay windows. I realize this is not your own experience living in a shitty modern mid-rise complex on Van Ness.

The kitchens in your "Victorian and Edwardians" are in the front of the homes or are you sneaking around other people's backyards peeping at them in their PJs? Seems odd because in the older homes I've been in the kitchens tend to be toward the rear.

REALLY wish I could answer that. Every day I think it has to be about as bad as it can get. Not that the epidemic is as bad--that's clearly going to get worse. But that the fear in financial centers of what it's doing to the economy is as bad as that's likely to get. And every day I'm wrong. I mean it seems to me people should have known some time ago that cruise ships were going to get tied to their piers, lots of airliners are going to be sitting in the CA and AZ deserts for a while, eventually Disneylands are probably going to shutter for at least a few weeks and hotels around the world are going to have a lot of empty rooms. If they didn't know that on Wall Street, they were kidding themselves and deserve to be fired.

But here's the thing: Things are happening that aren't supposed to happen. Precious metals, and especially their mining shares, are falling along with everything else. Treasury bonds fell yesterday along with stocks (and longer rates climbed). Stocks of companies little affected by coronavirus--some even perhaps helped by it like some drug stocks--fell as much as the things that clearly are.

The only logical explanations seem to me to be: (1) selling of index funds that hold a diverse portfolio of "good" and "bad" stocks, (2) liquidation of things like bonds and gold to meet margin calls or other liquidity problems, (3) panic selling by retail investors ("get me out of everything"), (4) selling what you can and not what you'd prefer to.

These are things that happen near bottoms I believe. But I've believed it basically since Monday or even late last week. Even trading tiny numbers of options contracts I've had trouble with very wide bid/ask spreads and sometimes no bids at all. Again more evidence of market dysfunction and panic.

So we'll see. I strongly believe there are lots of buying opportunities NOW if your horizon is 12 months or more. I think by fall the epidemic will be under control and social interaction will be normalizing if not normal. The question is how much damage will have been done to the economy and how fast will it recover and that I feel uncomfortable about. Remember that the stock market is supposed to anticipate economic events (and even though the black swan of a sudden epidemic has clearly blindsided it, the market should start recovering before Mainstreet does). If you believe their numbers, the Chinese experience is certainly encouraging (I don't believe their numbers). Even if our efforts to contain the virus aren't as effective as theirs, it will burn itself out because large swaths of the public will have had it and be immune (with 1% or so dead in the likely worst case). And historically it seems like booms have followed great disasters.

So I am buying now--mostly call options I can roll down if the underlying shares keep falling.

^^

We may--just may--have another 3000 points on the Dow to go:

https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedi...5-9c8e992d421e
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...S%3D1584004597

^^

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...S%3D1584005042

I am buying some stocks with anticipation of gains not so much in 2020 (except in the case of a few issues that might do well even in a pandemic) but in 2021 so I am buying options expiring in Jan 2022.

our financial advisor says for aggregated stocks like blackrock or whatever you have the relatively safe way to go is buy now and then monitor and buy in like 10% more week by week.

also, assuming the russians will capitulate on their oil deal walkout soon enough. we know they are at war with the usa and trying to destroy the local shale oil business here, but too much $ is on the table for them to keep fooling around with that.

That is why you don’t visit granny. And old people stay home from work.

The problem is not the niece being in public, it’s visiting the vulnerable old lady. Tell people not to visit older relatives. Nursing and assisted living homes should be banning visitors as well.


Then stay away from anyone older. Or rather, older people stay away from the young. Stay home.


What is so hard to understand? You can lock down a whole country, destroy the economy and impoverish everyone. Or you can tell the elderly and vulnerable (most of whom are not working anyway) to stay home and avoid public places and younger people (including relatives), and get through this with much more modest disruption.

Does coronavirus cause aggression too? :haha:

There are now 12 confirmed cases in North Carolina, in Wake, Durham, Johnston, and Forsyth counties. At the Charlotte Observer, staff has been informed of a possible exposure in the newsroom. If so, that would mean there are active cases in some of the state's most urban counties, home to Raleigh, Durham, Winston-Salem, and Charlotte. Statewide, the University of North Carolina system has suspended in-class instruction. That would include local universities here such as Western Carolina, Appalachian State, and UNC-Asheville. Not sure if that's true for the community college system also. Meanwhile, North Carolina has declared a state of emergency which has triggered the price gouging law. Some stores like Lowe's are limiting purchases to keep people from panic buying.

Here at home, the president's speech last night caused quite a tizzy at one of the hospitals where my husband is doing his clinicals. Patients are cancelling their mental health appointments, the hospital took the batteries out of most of the hand sanitizer dispensers because they can't get refills, and a lot of the staff was talking about going out for supply runs on their lunch breaks. One had already been to Sam's Club before coming in, and reported it to be mobbed. Hand sanitizer is sold out, and toilet paper is getting hard to find. I reassured my husband that I have enough Subway napkins stuffed in my glove box to wipe every ass within a three-hour drive so we're all set for the lean times.

Also, this morning the Tourism Development Authority in Asheville announced they're starting to see large numbers of people cancel their hotel and bed-and-breakfast reservations. Personally, I stopped in at my favorite coffee shop this morning, and the owner told me business is dropping off. Local news is also reporting that nearly every local festival, and galas and luncheon fundraisers for local nonprofits, have been suspended or canceled, while Asheville City and Buncombe County Schools have suspended or canceled a total of thirty-eight out-of-state field trips that had been scheduled.

Edit: God bless the rumor mill. This just showed up on a twitter feed about Asheville news:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES3cr5yU...jpg&name=small

YIMBY movement attracts strange bedfellows...

Wait... wrong thread.

I work in Advertising and am petrified I will loose my job again. I just started my new job 3 weeks ago and it's been going great, love my team, the culture, everything. But suddenly we are hearing brands we work with can't get product from China, and they have to slash their marketing budgets.

Yesterday, we were all instructed to begin WFH indefinitely (which I guess is good, but doesn't feel reassuring outlook-wise).

The 'social distancing' mode sounds like the only way to keep this thing at bay; look at China. Merely telling the 70's and above or those with illness to stay home while the rest of us goes on with life probably isn't going to cut it .

And it's too late, the world economy is already fucked.

James Howard Kunstler has been predicting the shale oil collapse for yearssss due to its very narrow price vs. finance requirements. I honestly don't think it would take much to collapse, which is why we are hearing the president talk about a stimulus.

Which is funny, bc, you know, about ten years ago the narrative from that side of the aisle was to let businesses fail.

Interesting article in one of the Dow Jones publications the other day (can’t remember whether the WSJ or Barron’s): basically they pointed out that the Russian plan to get rid of US shale production can’t work because even if they bankrupt the existing companies, the oil and technology will remain and private equity or somebody will pick up the assets for pennies on the dollar and resume production.

I’ll keep saying we don’t know what’s happening in China as far as the virus goes. We know things appear to be returning to normal because the government is sounding the all clear signal. But consider what America would look like if the government and media just went silent on the subject and began saying, “Just forget it—everything’s OK”. All would quickly seem normal but the spread of the virus wouldn’t change.

Do you know anyone who’s sick with diagnosed COVID? I don’t. If I junked the TV and stopped reading the paper or if they started telling me something different, I wouldn’t know there was a problem.

Four of my father's friends were on that cruise ship off Japan. Of course most of us won't know anyone directly impacted; it's 1200-1300 people out of 320 million. In total, about 130,000 have been infected globally.

I just learned yesterday that the LA Times Festival of Books, an event we go to every year, was postponed to October, because of COVID-19; it's usually held in April. It's a huge event. They have great author and guest speakers, among other things. Over the years, we've seen speakers like Barbara Eden, Tippi Hedren, and one year Billy Idol spoke about his autobiography, and did an impromptu concert.

And this hits home for me; it really doesn't make sense. According to the article, people are avoiding Chinese restaurants, yet business is up at 99 Ranch and 168 Market because supposedly more people are shopping and eating at home. But uh, you can just as easily get the virus shopping at 99 Ranch or any other Asian market as you can eating at a Chinese restaurant? :haha:

From Eater Los Angeles:

Coronavirus Concerns Shut Down Three SGV Restaurants, Others Suffer Plummeting Sales

Drops in business are estimated between 30 to 75 percent, according to dozens of Chinese restaurant owners


by Kristie Hang Mar 11, 2020, 12:16pm PDT

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Ng3A..._gabriel.7.jpg
Strip mall with restaurants in San Gabriel, California Shutterstock/Feng Cheng

Asian restaurants, especially Chinese restaurants, across the San Gabriel Valley in the Los Angeles area are reporting significant declines in business as novel coronavirus concerns continue to keep diners away. Many popular restaurants in the area have closed temporarily or even permanently in Southern California’s most populated Asian-American community. The latest affected are Hong Kong-style restaurant Henry’s Cuisine and Cantonese restaurant Top Island Seafood in Alhambra. Both establishments are closed for the next two months due to coronavirus concerns.

Henry’s Cuisine, which has been open since 2015, is a casual cafe known for its affordable breakfast sets. Top Island, which has been open since 2007, was a popular dim sum spot in the morning and an affordable Cantonese seafood restaurant at night. Cantonese/Chaozhou restaurant Seafood Palace in Monterey Park, was a staple in the community, but was forced to close permanently last week.

Although all three restaurants may have been suffering less-than-expected sales prior to the novel coronavirus news hitting San Gabriel Valley, COVID-19 has exacerbated the situation and forced them to close right away, according to a neighboring restaurant owner familiar with the situation who chose not to give their name. The person added, “Owners don’t want to affect employees’ income so they try to stay open as long as they can, but the small mom-and-pops can’t hold on for too long.”

After speaking to dozens of Chinese restaurant owners in the SGV area, they estimate that their businesses are down anywhere between 30 to 75 percent amid the coronavirus outbreak, which originated in Wuhan, China, and has since spread across the globe.

”The business right now is so slow,” said one restaurateur. “Before [the outbreak] it was very busy”, echoed another.

The owners reiterated over and over they believe that concerns over the novel coronavirus spreading across the U.S. have turned people against Chinese restaurants and Chinese-owned businesses.

Arthur Tang, who owns two restaurants in the San Gabriel Valley, Malubianbian and Chengdu Impression, says his overall business has been down at least 70 percent. “Before, our wait time to get in was two plus hours, and now it’s basically all walk-in,” said Tang. In response to the panic, his restaurants are sterilized daily to ease concerns.

“We do body check temperature on every customer to make sure every store is healthy. We’ve also been giving discounts to encourage diners to come in,” says Tang.

Not only are diners are staying away, some restaurants are struggling to get certain ingredients and supplies in from China because many factories are still closed. China mandated factory shutdowns across the country last month extending the annual two week Lunar New Year holiday. Although many of those restrictions have now been removed, leading to a slow return to work for people, many major manufacturers remain closed.

A representative from Bistro Na’s, the only Michelin-star Chinese restaurant in Southern California, says business has been reduced by 30 to 40 percent. She says going forward, their focus will be on delivery. The representative also noted that they have had problems with importing tea leaves from China. Chef Tiantian Qiu, who owns Sichuan restaurants Hip Hop in Monterey Park and Mala Town in Sawtelle Japantown, has been having issues importing peppercorn and other unique spices in from China for her dishes.

Though restaurants seem to have seen a significant decline in sales, supermarkets like 99 Ranch and 168 Market are doing extremely well since more people are choosing to cook and stay in, according to some restaurant owners who did not wish to be named.

Popular SGV dessert chain Meet Fresh also commented that they have lost over 20 percent of revenue since the end of January when novel coronavirus concerns began. Meet Fresh’s representative noted that if the concerns continued, the dessert chain would focus more on delivery in coming months to combat further reductions in sales.

Jocelyn Wong, who manages popular food Instagram account @hangrydiary, noted that she continues to dine out in San Gabriel Valley despite being worried about the virus. “I still continue to dine at Chinese restaurants. I don’t want to see them close, so I dine out a lot as I normally would. Yes, I am concerned, but I pick earlier hours to dine out to avoid the crowds or order delivery if needed,” says Wong.

Uniboil, a hot pot restaurant in Monterey Park, has seen a 75 percent drop in business. When asked how long he would be able to keep his restaurant afloat, owner Alan Pun somberly responded, “Maybe not long.”

Even Din Tai Fung in the Westfield Santa Anita Mall isn’t busy at the moment, with ample room for walk-in diners. The popular soup dumpling restaurant, which used to command large crowds and long waits every day of the week, is only half-filled.

Not all Chinese restaurants are on the brink of closing, but there has been a trend of diners eating out earlier around 5 p.m. versus the typical 7 or 8 p.m. dinner rush. The manager at New Lucky, a Cantonese seafood restaurant in Monterey Park, said that the new trend is that diners start coming in very early and place a lot of take out orders. “Business is still way down, but we’re trying to take it one day at a time,” she said.

And although business has definitely declined across the board, it seems as though more affordable restaurants, with breakfast and lunch deals like Delicious Food Corner, Happy Harbor, and The Bay Cafe, have still been full during peak times. Restaurants that specialize in unique dishes like Ji Rong with their Peking duck also seem to be doing well.

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HGYi...anbian_001.jpg
Malubianbian hot pot restaurant in Rowland Heights, which regularly fielded two-hour waits until the novel coronavirus news. The restaurant now accepts walk-ins without any wait time. Wonho Frank Lee

Source: https://la.eater.com/2020/3/11/21175...Z0BuWyz5DExlsY

Has anyone else noticed what seems to be a drop in heavy traffic? I have, at least in my area. Could it be the result of this coronavirus paranoia?

Just my point. In this country or China, we only really know what we are told because we have no way to have first hand knowledge. We may see secondary effects—empty TP shelves, less traffic, somebody taking temps as we go in to work—but those things also depend on what we are all told and if we are lied to everything can seem different.

Definitely. SF is a ghost town. All the techies are WFH, tourism is way down, people aren't eating out, sporting events suspended/canceled, public events like parades/marathons canceled, etc.

Side note: I wouldn't describe it as paranoia. Shutting down these large events is smart. Hoarding TP and hand sanitizer however would be paranoia. When you clear out the store of hand sanitizer, preventing everyone else from getting it, it just means other people will be more likely to get it, which means you'll be more likely to get it no matter how much hand sanitizer you bathe in.

It's the fear of not being in control and one thing we can control is running out and buying stuff for the apocalypse. In three months, these idiots who hoarded toilet paper by the bulk will be giving it away because it's taking up half a closet.

It's a respiratory illness, no? You can lube up with the hand sanitizer, but ultimately you're gonna breathe that virus in, right? That shit don't make no sense!

Yeah, social distancing is about controlling the outbreak so it doesn't overwhelm the health care system. Breaking the system will be bad for everyone, whether you catch the virus or not.

14 cases in North Carolina, mostly in the state's biggest cities. The two newest cases are in Charlotte.

Here, the closest case is about an hour away in Spartanburg, SC.

Not exactly.

- It’s not entirely a respiratory illness although the deaths almost all seem to be from respiratory failure. But recently there’s some attention being paid to the gastrointestinal component (including diarrhea).

- The expelled droplets that people breathe or cough out are heavy enough that they only travel 3 - 6 ft and then settle on surfaces where you can pick them up on hands. But they are saying if you stay 6 feet from other people you aren’t going to breathe it in.

I think it stays on surfaces for awhile, so if you touch something and then unknowingly touch your face out of habit as literally everyone does, then you can get it.

So how long does the disease "live" in the droplets once it lands on a surface? Michael Osterholm (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Osterholm) said that the whole "wash your hands!" thing was basically to quell anxiety, and give people a sense of control.

Clearly, wash your hands, but does it really do anything to protect against corona specifically?

I'm debating going to the gym this evening. On the one hand, seems to be tempting fate. On the other, not that hard to stay 3-6 feet away from people at the gym and to wash my hands before I touch my face.

Rumor is we are shutting down production tomorrow. Will see. Def. getting real.

production of what?

As if people never washed their hands regularly before? I'm sure some of you have seen this meme floating around?
https://scontent-fml1-1.xx.fbcdn.net...2c&oe=5EA65D80

I've already accepted the fact that I may eventually be exposed to COVID-19; if worse came to worse, I live in California, I could always apply for state disability insurance, if I had to miss work.

Toilet paper lasts until the cockroaches eat it. I've been a hoarder forever because I have an irrational fear of discovering I'm out in the middle of acute need. So I am currently using TP I bought 2 years ago (it's stacked in the garage, not a closet). I wouldn't worry about what's being hoarded eventually getting used.

I was thinking about buying Kimberly-Clark until I realized however great their sales may be now (TP, Kleenex), it's just pulling forward demand. When the crisis is over, demand will collapse because whatever the hoarders buy they can use the rest of their lives. It won't go bad.

edit double post

TV show. We would have shut down around April 1 otherwise. Rumors all over Hollywood of shows shutting down.

Looks like Broadway in NYC is shutting down imminently.

Your problem comes if you aren't exposed, just laid off because your employer shuts or has no business. Under current rules to get unemployment, which is hardly sufficient anyway, you have to be looking for work. Not only is nobody likely to be hiring but we don't want people out looking for work right now. That needs to be fixed.