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Quote:

SF to ban large gatherings, including barring fans from Warriors games, to curb coronavirus

Dominic Fracassa
March 11, 2020 Updated: March 11, 2020 12:47 p.m.

San Francisco Mayor London Breed and city health officials will issue a directive Wednesday canceling all gatherings that draw large crowds — including Golden State Warriors games — to help protect against the spread of the new coronavirus.

City health officials will issue an order Wednesday formally prohibiting public gatherings of 1,000 or more people. The order will go into effect within the next 24 hours — the city has to provide direct notification to venues — and will last for at least two weeks . . . .

Through March 21, the following events at Chase Center would be impacted by the public-gathering ban:

• Friday, March 13 - Tame Impala concert (postponed)

• Saturday, March 14 - Santa Cruz Warriors vs. Austin Spurs (moved to Santa Cruz; game will also be played without fans)

• Thursday, March 19 - Post Malone concert (canceled or postponed — TBD)

• Saturday, March 21 - Bell Biv Devoe & Friends concert (postponed)

The San Francisco Giants also announced Wednesday they will not host the Oakland A’s in an exhibition game at Oracle Park previously scheduled for March 24.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...s-15123312.php

Quote:

Coronavirus aid: SF seeks to help renters, workers, small businesses devastated by outbreak
Photo of Roland Li
Roland Li March 10, 2020 Updated: March 10, 2020 9:14 p.m.

San Francisco officials are seeking to help renters, small businesses and workers hurt by the coronavirus outbreak that’s damaging the local economy.

Supervisors announced legislation Tuesday that would ban residential evictions for nonpayment of rent due to loss of income from the new coronavirus. They also are proposing legislation to create a fund that would help small businesses suffering from the outbreak pay their rent. Details and exact dollar amounts aren’t finalized.

Other city proposals include a new type of paid leave during public health emergencies for residents and potentially new funds for workers who were laid off or furloughed. A nonbinding resolution urging banks to suspend foreclosures and fees and utilities to stop assessing penalties is also being drafted. Supervisors Dean Preston, Hillary Ronen, Matt Haney and Ahsha Safaí are sponsoring the measures . . . .

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...s-15121448.php

in the worst news in all of this CV BS, all of chicago's various st. paddy's day parades and other festivities, including the famous river dyeing, have now been cancelled for this weekend.

guess i'm just gonna have to get drunk at home by myself saturday morning. :(

worst. timing. ever.

as we're accustomed to saying in chicago, "wait 'til next year", i guess:

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9Wg7...1489763683.jpg
source: https://chicago.curbed.com/2017/3/17...me-lapse-video

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan (Post 8858458)

I was supposed to go to Chicago for St. Paddy's this weekend but had stuff come up. Hopefully next year when this thing has blown over.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bilbao58 (Post 8858371)

So many younger people don't seem to understand that just by getting the virus, whether they get sick or not, in fact especially if they don't get sick, they are facilitating its further spread. They also don't get that they may not even know they're infected, but Granny will know it when they visit her and she dies 3 weeks later.

not to mention even for young people it is much deadlier than a flu, obviously both are very unlikely to kill a young person but it is possible, the COVID19 is much more likely than almost any other illness a young person can get.

Not to mention even if you dont die you can be in SERIOUS condition, they have people on full ventilators this isnt a joke, if you end up ventilated even as a 24 year old you will probably have permanent lung damage.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan (Post 8858348)

^ yeah, the cruise industry is in for one hell of a beat-down.

who the fuck is ever gonna wanna take a cruise again after this shit?

you couldn't pay me to get on one of those floating petri dishes.

and i highly doubt i'm the only one thinking that way.

The reason I never have and most certainly never will now

So the entire State University of New York and City University of New York (Both are multiples colleges around NY State and City) have now moved to online classes starting March 19th. Classes are excused the next 5 days to get ready for the transition.

However, resources and such are still going to stay open, the library, research labs, etc. :rolleyes::runaway:

Quote:

Originally Posted by LosAngelesSportsFan (Post 8858556)

The reason I never have and most certainly never will now

To borrow an old naval joke, they’re prisons with a chance of drowning. Or catching something.

The NBA and NHL are both suspending their seasons.

And March madness will be played in empty arenas.

We're in unchartered territory here, at least for anyone currently alive.

Shit is getting real.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan (Post 8858786)

Shit is getting real.

They are embargoing tomatoes and mozzarella.

:justkidding:

Montreal has cancelled the world figure skating championship.

Apparently downtown San Francisco is a ghost town (I am taking time off so I don't have to go downtown), and BART ridership is off 25%. I'd bet Muni ridership is also down--all my neighbors were home today, going on how I could see everyone in their pajamas working at their kitchen tables. I will say, though, that I'm going to need to purchase an ergonomic chair if I'm going to work from home.

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs (Post 8859031)

How do you see what people are wearing at their kitchen tables? I don’t have a kitchen table but now I’ll have to stop leaving the bedroom without dressing (or can you see in there too?)

So when is maximum panic? And when does it become a buying opportunity?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedestrian (Post 8859059)

How do you see what people are wearing at their kitchen tables? I don’t have a kitchen table but now I’ll have to stop leaving the bedroom without dressing (or can you see in there too?)

I live in a Victorian and Edwardian neighborhood. All our kitchens and living rooms have big, front-facing bay windows. I realize this is not your own experience living in a shitty modern mid-rise complex on Van Ness.

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs (Post 8859079)

The kitchens in your "Victorian and Edwardians" are in the front of the homes or are you sneaking around other people's backyards peeping at them in their PJs? Seems odd because in the older homes I've been in the kitchens tend to be toward the rear.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023 (Post 8859078)

So when is maximum panic? And when does it become a buying opportunity?

REALLY wish I could answer that. Every day I think it has to be about as bad as it can get. Not that the epidemic is as bad--that's clearly going to get worse. But that the fear in financial centers of what it's doing to the economy is as bad as that's likely to get. And every day I'm wrong. I mean it seems to me people should have known some time ago that cruise ships were going to get tied to their piers, lots of airliners are going to be sitting in the CA and AZ deserts for a while, eventually Disneylands are probably going to shutter for at least a few weeks and hotels around the world are going to have a lot of empty rooms. If they didn't know that on Wall Street, they were kidding themselves and deserve to be fired.

But here's the thing: Things are happening that aren't supposed to happen. Precious metals, and especially their mining shares, are falling along with everything else. Treasury bonds fell yesterday along with stocks (and longer rates climbed). Stocks of companies little affected by coronavirus--some even perhaps helped by it like some drug stocks--fell as much as the things that clearly are.

The only logical explanations seem to me to be: (1) selling of index funds that hold a diverse portfolio of "good" and "bad" stocks, (2) liquidation of things like bonds and gold to meet margin calls or other liquidity problems, (3) panic selling by retail investors ("get me out of everything"), (4) selling what you can and not what you'd prefer to.

These are things that happen near bottoms I believe. But I've believed it basically since Monday or even late last week. Even trading tiny numbers of options contracts I've had trouble with very wide bid/ask spreads and sometimes no bids at all. Again more evidence of market dysfunction and panic.

So we'll see. I strongly believe there are lots of buying opportunities NOW if your horizon is 12 months or more. I think by fall the epidemic will be under control and social interaction will be normalizing if not normal. The question is how much damage will have been done to the economy and how fast will it recover and that I feel uncomfortable about. Remember that the stock market is supposed to anticipate economic events (and even though the black swan of a sudden epidemic has clearly blindsided it, the market should start recovering before Mainstreet does). If you believe their numbers, the Chinese experience is certainly encouraging (I don't believe their numbers). Even if our efforts to contain the virus aren't as effective as theirs, it will burn itself out because large swaths of the public will have had it and be immune (with 1% or so dead in the likely worst case). And historically it seems like booms have followed great disasters.

So I am buying now--mostly call options I can roll down if the underlying shares keep falling.

Quote:

In a Wednesday note, UBS attempted to address a number of scenarios, Here are excerpts from the bank’s thinking:

UBS revising…everything
In the bank’s new baseline, it expects “global growth in 2020 to fall to 2.3% (was 2.9%) and eight countries to enter recession.”

“However, we also consider two further escalation steps: an intermediate scenario where infections increase by a factor 1000 and a full pandemic scenario. In the former, global growth falls to 1.6%[year over year] (16 out of 28 countries in recession) and in the pandemic scenario to 0.8% (18/28 in recession).”

Monetary and fiscal stimulus on the way?
The Federal Reserve last week cut its fed-funds rate by a half a percentage point to a 1%-1.25% range and is scheduled to meet on March 17-18, where it’s expected to discuss further rolling back rates. On Wednesday, the Bank of England lowered its key rates as well, as investors expect a spate of policy measures from global central banks to help curtail the negative effects of slowdowns to business activity, amid the efforts to contain and/or mitigate the viral outbreak.

UBS is forecasting the Fed to “go to the zero lower bound in the next two meetings,” which could mean the fed-funds hits 0% over the next few months.

Market participants have reacted poorly to monetary policy measures alone because specialists believe a coordinated effort is key to helping mitigate the economic impact to global economies and supply chains.

As for fiscal measures, UBS is expecting more efforts from the international community, including China. “We have also tallied up all the fiscal announcements and now expect roughly 80bp (% global GDP) of additional global fiscal stimulus (>50% China; 15% Eurozone), which would make this the most expansionary year since 2009,” the economists wrote.

“It will help the recovery to trend starting in the second half of the year, and we expect a full recovery to trend growth in 2021, with only limited permanent global output loss (50-80bp),” they said.

What’s priced in
The bank is forecasting 2% global growth, which they describe as bad, but add that “it could be worse.”

“Our estimates suggest the market is pricing in global growth at only 2% (in line with our forecast), compared with a long-term average of 3.5%, 4% prior to Covid-19 worries and 2.8% before OPEC+ broke down,” UBS says, referring to the unraveling of talks between major global crude producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia. The alliance broke down spectacularly last week, resulting in a stunning collapse of crude-oil prices US:CL00 as Saudi Arabia said they would ratchet up output of crude after a three-year agreement concludes at the end of the month.

“The quick ‘double shock’ has meant that this has been the sharpest eight-week decline in growth expectations since the [global financial crisis in 2008],” the researchers wrote.

Stock-market outlook
UBS estimates that stocks could shed 5% or 20% in an intermediate or pandemic scenario. That said, the firm believes that the continued rise of cases and deaths from the novel coronavirus likely means that assets perceived as risky could be vulnerable to even more substantial falls.

“If the virus can be contained, global equities should make new stimulus-powered highs by end-2020. North Asia and the U.S. will likely lead gains, while Europe and the rest of [emerging markets] lag,” [seems incredibly optimistic to me now] the analysts wrote.

Even with a rebound for asset prices in the last six months of the year, UBS predicts that stocks will end the year in negative territory.

Through Tuesday, the Dow was off 16% so far this year, the S&P 500 down more than 14%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down more than 10%. The Stoxx Europe 600 index XX:SXXP is off nearly 20% in 2020, and the Italian benchmark, FTSE MIB Index IT:I945, the country in Europe that has been the hardest hit by the outbreak, is off about 24%. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP is down by a less severe 2.7%, according to FactSet data.

“In the intermediate scenario,we still see a recovery in [second half], but not enough to keep returns positive for the year. The pandemic scenario sees a major step lower in returns as growth slips with little additional stimulus at policy makers’ disposal.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...S%3D1584005042

I am buying some stocks with anticipation of gains not so much in 2020 (except in the case of a few issues that might do well even in a pandemic) but in 2021 so I am buying options expiring in Jan 2022.

our financial advisor says for aggregated stocks like blackrock or whatever you have the relatively safe way to go is buy now and then monitor and buy in like 10% more week by week.

also, assuming the russians will capitulate on their oil deal walkout soon enough. we know they are at war with the usa and trying to destroy the local shale oil business here, but too much $ is on the table for them to keep fooling around with that.

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