It's a war, and you're aiding and abetting the enemy like a fucking traitor.

C'mon, you guys, stop talking about COVID in the COVID thread!

Oh noes. That's just terrible news.

What is the point of the shaming?

This reminds me of HIV and harm reduction versus a shaming and abstinence model. Trying to honestly communicate risks to people and offer mitigation strategies instead of persecuting them for being gay or having sex.

In much the same way that there was often a failure to acknowledge sex as a basic human activity and requirement in the 80's and 90's (perhaps the key component of what living creatures who sexually reproduce evolve to do), there's often a failure to acknowledge any interaction as being necessary today.

I think it goes deeper here because shame is often a redirection strategy when official government initiatives aren't going well. We could have had faster vaccine approval and rollout and better testing. I hear almost nothing about testing these days.

You are saying you have no sympathy for person A because person B in history suffered more? Couldn't you have said the same of the Greatest Generation because they weren't mowed down by Genghis Khan or something?

I am relatively comfortable and don't consider myself a victim, but I have a lot of sympathy for people who have paid costs during the past year. Not just health costs from covid itself but costs imposed by the restrictions too. I'm not sure which costs are higher. Nobody knows what the long-term impact will be on younger people, such as a cohort of infants who are deprived of much of their human contact at key ages.

I think that if governments had performed better, many countries could have done better on both ends. The "many people get covid" vs. "indefinite lockdown" trade-off is what you get when your country has failed in a number of other areas.

I see 10023's point. Don't necessarily agree with everything he says but those under 50 are statistically less vulnerable than the older crowd (and have largely been sequestered from them) but have had their lives curtailed just the same. People in their 40's, 50's and 60's bitching about Spring Breakers had their era of fun and are tone deaf as to why a 22 year-old who's been cooped up for over a year would want to let loose in South Beach. Don't think it's a good idea but I get it.

I'm something of a libertarian as much as I can be. I think shaming is a better way to control a lot of public behavior than laws. In Europe they make laws against hate speech. I'd rather just humiliate the people who use it for example. In this case, the point is to inhibit the behavior but I realize it's not going to be very effective against people who have no shame.

What's the "harm reduction" for COVID other than doing the things we are asking of these people (Masks, distancing)? "Harm reduction" used to be my business by the way--took a gig as doctor in a methadone clinic when I was partially retired.

I think that's the wrong way to look at it. I think a willingness to (1) wear a mask in public indoor places, (2) maintain some distance (feet, not miles) from people you don't live with, (3) get vaccinated when possible are the things that make reasonable kinds of interaction possible and still safe. If people will just do those 3 things, nearly everything else is now reasonably OK.

Testing is declining rapidly and that's both reasonable and a shame. Once we we suppress the virus as much as we can with vaccination, we will need to have readily available testing to find the sporadic cases that will allow it to keep smoldering. But for now the focus is on vaccination and I think that's as it should be. Vaccination will stop the pandemic. Testing in places like the US and Canada where it has been out of control can only limit it. But hopefully we will pass through that phase in 4 or 5 months.

My lack of sympathy is not for their lack of suffering. It's for their complaining so much about suffering that is minimal and their refusal to do what society asks of them. Imagine if they were sent to war to die.

There are important costs due to restrictions and minimally important ones. The biggest complainers here usually don't mention what may be the most important cost due to restrictions: We don't really know how this is going to affect a generation of children who had a year out from proper education, almost any socialization and who were subjected to fear they may not understand. I don't hear the 20-somethings even talk about that. The 30-somethings more so because they may have kids. But this is likely to be a serious problem and I acknowledge so also is the hiatus from higher education for the 20-somethings. Will they know the things upon graduation they would have known and may need to know?

I also worry a lot about the arts: Haute culture (opera, symphony, ballet, live theater and so on) may be getting killed off in the US where government subsidization is less than in Europe (some of the now multiple federal relief acts have some money for the arts).

But the inability to go bar hopping or work out in an indoor gym just doesn't register on the scale of serious restrictions IMHO nor would a year without "Spring Break" at the beach (some people use the break to go build houses for Habitat For Humanity or other useful purposes and I imagine that's still OK--it should be; it's mostly outdoors).

As to the performance of government. I think you are Canadian. I am surprised, frankly, at the Canadian government's failure given their comfort level with what, for lack of a better term I'll call "socialism" (no insult intended).

But in the US, things went pretty much like every war we've ever fought (which is another way this really is like war). We pretty much screwed up the first 6 to 9 months of the fight, just like we did in WW II (it took until 1943 to get war production really going and of course the early battles--Pearl Harbor, Coral Sea, Philippines and so on were disasters): Test kits from CDC that didn't work, porous travel bans, an utter failure of contact tracing. But as with Midway onward, I think now we are rolling: All but Pfizer developed and geared up production of vaccines with generous dollops of government money, there has been, a steady increase in the speed of vaccinations from the end of December (there has been no discernible discontinuity between US administrations--when Trump left office we were giving 1.3 million shots per day about a month after vaccine approval and we've ratcheted that up to 3 million in 2 additional months). Meanwhile, more government money and rapid FDA approval has now gone into at least 3 treatment modalities (2 monoclonal antibody cocktails--there were 3 but one has been more or less abandoned--and one anti-viral. That's pretty good considering that antivirals as a class don't exist at all for many viral diseases that have been around longer than COVID.

When I graduated from college, half my class was shipped to Vietnam and quite a few died there. Yes, until then we had "Spring Break". But you haven't been "cooped up" until you've been to boot camp.

Let's recall the younger folks were lightly restricted (there were no real "lockdowns" in the US--people could go out, get together with others to the degree they felt safe, picnic in the park, go on "road trips" in camper vans which had a renaissance; but no one was enforcing any of it and the major effect has been the closure of certain businesses though I have for months at a time with most shopping at Walmart and they didn't close).

Rather than crowding into beachfront bars in Miami, all sorts of experiences in the outdoors were never curtailed.

But all of what was done was to suppress viral reproduction and transmission which occurs in all ages even though the young don't get as sick while it's happening to them. And the virus that reproduces in them would not stay confined to the young. Short of doing what 10023 has always advocated--locking grandma and grandpa up at home and feeding them through a slot in the door like a zoo animal--the young and old are not isolated from one another in western democracies. Old people have to shop for food and many aren't as lucky as I am and able to afford the 50% or so more it costs to have things delivered. Things break at home and a repairman has to come in and fix them. Dental visits and routine medical care with younger dental assistance and medical staff have to occur.

Throwing out Vietnam to lessen contemporary grievances doesn't jive. Yes, shipping kids off to fight (and die) in a war they really didn't want to be in was an in my opinion, inexcusable. The US wised up in 1973 by ending the draft. My stepfather never mentally recovered from the shit he experienced over there but we're not fighting a war now and the distress the pandemic is causing is no less sincere. I'm not talking about 10023 not being able to ski but it's taken a toll on mental health. I couldn't imagine going through this single and living alone.

As for transmission, a lot of people my age and younger have either had limited interaction with their elders or avoided physical contact altogether. My bubble has essentially been my wife, my mother and mother-in-law for much of the year. Only started seeing a few friends here and there since the fall. I still can't visit my father/ brothers in New York until they all get their second shot. It's been a year and a half.

The last year has been tough on everyone, young and old. What angers me is that if everybody or at least 90% wore effective masks and practiced social distancing for a few weeks a year ago, we could have been out of this mess by last summer, just like countries like New Zealand, Taiwan and S. Korea shut it down. Our restaurants and bars and stadiums could have been opened many months ago if we acted responsibly like New Zealanders.

You're not wrong, CaliNative.

Holy crap, I’m middle aged? I thought I’m still a year away from that.

I would argue that my life was MORE affected than yours was, even though you bitched to high heaven (and I bitched to low heaven). Here’s it affected me but NOT you, I presume:

1. My kids e-learned. That had a huge affect on our lives, since my wife and I cannot work from home. I also feel it negatively impacted their development. If anything were to bother me most about the pandemic, it would be this

2. I actually had to keep showing up for work with a mask on. I didn’t have the luxury of WFH or a union to help me not show up for the job I agreed to do

3. I did get hurt economically. I’m very involved with urban rentals which got hit particularly hard, with rental rates plummeting while vacancies soared, really hitting my margins hard

4. I have been known around here as being one of the biggest Chicago boosters. While I will always love the place, much of that evaporated over the pandemic. I have also questioned why I am in a region where our central city became a shadow of its former self overnight. If I’m going to be a “suburban Dad”, why not do it in a warmer and lower cost locale?

Why move the goal posts?

Only death should cripple our economy and add 5 trillion to our debt.

All I see is that hospitalization rates have gone down, great.

Why would someone wear a mask if they are vaccinated?

You are all about data and science (you've been really incredible with the information you've provided over the last year), so why ignore science and wear a mask?

There is zero domestic evidence to back that up. The current worst states in the country for cases are all states that are heavily masked. Texas and Arkansas, as of last week, had one of the lowest counts per 100k, both states that recently ended their mask mandates.

Yeah, I saw the same thing. Pedestrian, you seriously are getting kooky on us. Hospitalization rates for the young are actually DOWN for the young with the data you posted. All that changed is that the ratio of elderly to young getting hospitalized went down. That simply shows that the vaccines are working as they should. You aren’t making your point, you’re making 10023’s point.

Not picking on you, Pedestrian, but I hear you talk as if you never will leave your home again. Virus really got you freaked, don’t it? Well, if you’ve been vaccinated, then at your age you really need to live. Life doesn’t last forever, and we only get one life.

My elderly parents got their shots and we are already making plans to do some road trips with them as the weather warms up. They want to go to Door County, WI. Stop living in fear, and stop spreading so much needless fear to others.

The argument is that it’s better to have a masking policy because we don’t always know who wasn’t and who was vaccinated. Most vaccinated people aren’t wearing a sign on their chest that says “Hey I got the vaccine!” So.....wear a mask for the time being to eliminate any confusion or resentment from others while in public. I think it makes sense.

I understand that argument, however, I don't trust our politicians or the media. I saw an article yesterday saying indoor dining may be banned again in parts of Illinois because of increased hospitalizations! Somehow Illinois could handle 12,000 cases a day a few months ago but now hospitalizations are becoming a huge issue with 2,000 cases a day? I am not buying it.

You've seen it on here too- people are continually moving the goal posts. Our governor found a new phase(!), phase 4.5 once he realized his metric of "widely available vaccine" was so close to being a reality.

Let me be clear, I wear my mask indoors because its the law here and even if it weren't, I would (of course) if it was the business policy. I am not some asshole. I even wore a mask at an outdoor Trump rally last year (masked people probably made up maybe 10% of the people). This isn't political for me in that sense. However, I won't wear a mask outdoors anymore (unless its freezing) and if I have to continue to be masked indoors in Chicago for much longer, I will simply take my business (grocery shopping, restaurants, shopping in general) to Indiana.

^ Oh, I never said I like the politicians. I can’t stand Pritzker and most of those Bozos, they are the scum of the earth. I’m just saying that a good citizen would still wear their mask while in public and indoors for the reasons I stated.

I don’t believe that this is true.

New Zealand has cut itself off from the world, and they can’t reopen until their population is fully vaccinated because they currently have zero population immunity.

Those countries in East Asia all had some level of pre-existing immunity due to exposure to similar viruses in the past. I am absolutely convinced of that. My sister lives in Tokyo and there’s no way they could have come out of this so well, with no proper lockdown, if that were not the case.

And how much cheaper would it have been for states or the feds to just cover the cost of grocery and other delivery? Medical offices are not crowded and should be able to adhere to strict hygiene standards (in normal times, forget the virus). Plus there are senior shopping hours - you just can’t seem to make the small sacrifice of waking up a bit earlier to take advantage of them.

So what, I have to be locked up for a year and prevented from doing anything that I enjoy, because I might breathe near you in a grocery store that you’re too lazy to visit in the first couple hours after it opens? Give me a damn break.

Visiting this thread occasionally...10023 just keeps going with the alternate reality delusions. It's too bad this know-everything savior isn't in charge!

It's the trend. 2,000 cases / day is fine, but exponential growth requires applying restrictions before they seem necessary, otherwise it will be too late.

Crackpot.

Thoughts 'n' prayers.

Nobody knows more about everything, especially things that are not proven true, than Lord Pretend.

I understand that but our growth in cases is barely growing, absolutely nothing like what is going on in Michigan for instance.

Sure, but there are no new restrictions going on now, just a warning that if the rate continues to grow, new restrictions may be forthcoming.

I can absolutely assure you that I do not give a shit about your sympathy or lack thereof, or your hypochondria, or your well-being.

Texas is not one of the lowest per 100k.

Arkansas is currently the 9th worst per 100k. Texas is 27, so middle of the road. Texas is 12th worst in testing, so who it would probably be higher if more people tested on average.

California is doing better, 33rd in number of covid cases per 100k, with almost 30 million (!!!) more tests than Texas or Florida. With this data, California'a positive rates are far better than these states who didn't really give a shit.

You bought a bright red Porsche...that is so a mid life crisis!

^ Yep... 40 is middle age anyway but the 911 definitely confirms it :haha:

But states with zero restrictions or near zero (Texas and Arkansas, for example) are doing much better. Restrictions is the feel-good political way to deal with it but it doesn't appear to be an actual effective strategy.

Why is Texas and Arkansas doing better while not even mandating masks? Hell, my sisters school doesn't even mandate masks while kids in Chicago still aren't going to high school classes.

I am talking about in the last month.

Still not doing better than California in last month.
California is down to 2k cases a day, for awhile.

On March 25th CA had 2576 cases.
On April 4th Ca had 2688 cases.

On March 25th TX had 3367 cases.
On April 4th TX had 2935 cases.

SAME dates
NJ 4077
NJ 4363

NY 7656
NY 7997

MI 4142
MI 5797

AR 210
AR 160

I stand corrected, California is doing better than Texas, although heading in the wrong direction (slightly).

But my main point is that states that have little to no restrictions are doing better or about the same as states that are still acting like its April 2020. My point is confirmed by the above numbers. CA, NJ, NY, and MI are getting worse and this is mainly what the media is talking about when they say cases are rising in the US. No, its going up in a few select states, that also happen to have strong restrictions this far into the pandemic.

How do you explain the low and continuing lowering of the numbers in places like AR or TX? We are constantly told that restrictions are the ONLY way, well, it looks like restrictions don't make much a difference, do they?

I think there is some validity as to why states with more lax lockdowns and restrictions have faired as well as those with more stringent ones. I think there will be studies for years about what measures were effective and others aren't or were counterproductive. Here in Texas, we are wide open with no mask mandate though pretty much everyone still requires them and our positivity rate is hovering around 5%. I think with New York, they were locked down pretty hard and now with the confidence with the vaccines, warmer weather and gradual reopening, it was a perfect storm.

For once we agree on all the points you are making in this post. And I've lived in New Zealand. It's a beautiful place but they are like the Switzerland of the Anglophone world. They are encouraged by their location and small population to think they can isolate themselves from many of the world's tribulations, not just COVID.

Absolutely. And I am not saying places that have fewer restrictions and no mask mandate equals better results. Nope, I am simply stating that more restrictions are not the Ace in the Hole many act like they are. I expect politicians to accept that notion blindly because they are pandering idiots, but we could think this through a little better.

Yup.

Politicians are all about votes, not necessarily doing the right thing. They want the world to be convinced that it is THEIR actions that saved everybody, not the actions of the public who took precautions and wore masks.

The politicians pander so that they can win elections (and keep their jobs). It's the same, tired crap everywhere, and it's the price we pay as a society for allowing people to make a career in politics.

I wouldn't say 100 more cases is really a big deal when we test almost double what Texas does.
California isn't getting worse.

But Texas is getting better than what it was.

From ABC7:

COVID-19 surges across multiple states as California numbers continue to drop

By JR Stone
Tuesday, April 6, 2021 8:38AM


SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- California has the best COVID-19 positivity rate in the country. But as this good news comes, there is also bad news as other states like Michigan are dealing with a surge of cases.

"There's almost a tale of two cases right now, how to prevent cases, to how to see cases rise and we definitely don't want to see the latter," says Dr. Alok Patel of ABC7's Vaccine Team. Patel is referring to masked crowds we've seen in San Francisco -- where the COVID-19 positivity rate is 1% -- and places where we've seen COVID-19 surges like Miami, Florida -- where there are unmasked crowds and a positivity rate of 10%.

"I won't get concerned as long as they don't come here," says Markeigh Ford of San Francisco.

Doctors that we talked with are concerned though, saying that the largest surges we're seeing across the country involve young people who have expanded their bubbles and now could be facing new variants.

"By in large, young individuals in this country are not vaccinated and I'm not just talking about those who are below the age of 16 who aren't approved. I'm also talking about those under the age of 30," says Patel.

Stanford's Dr. Grace Lee says it's a race against time to get the vaccine out there and better prepare everyone for any possible 4th surge in California.

"Until we can vaccinate the population that is continuing to have high rates of infection, which is really our young adult population, it's gonna be really hard to prevent the spread or transmission of the COVID-19 infection," says Dr. Lee.

Monday night, those we spoke with in San Francisco said they feel that those here in the Bay Area have been more cautious than other places and are therefore better prepared.

"Yes for sure, I mean people are more educated here and they take more precautions in general," said Tisha Dutta and Shuvhan Doel of San Francisco.

Doctors just hopeful that Californians keep their guard up as numbers continue to drop here but rise elsewhere.

Link: https://abc7news.com/covid-surge-in-...bers/10490051/

^
There’s that ridiculous word surge again. Are deaths “surging”? No they aren’t. So this increase in covid doesn’t matter because younger people get a mild cold or nothing at all. Of course there are the outlier extremely rare cases when a young person dies or gets very sick but those are outliers. This continued fear mongering by the media is absolutely insane. Nearly all of the elderly and those at risk are vaccinated; I’m vaccinated and I’m only 33. Everyone is starting to get vaccinated. This continued fear is beyond nutso and continued wearing of masks is nuts.

SO people in Michigan, New Jersey, and New York aren't wearing masks either?

Why is there an obsession with masks?

From CNN:

In Michigan's latest coronavirus surge, there's a new kind of patient

By Miguel Marquez, CNN

Updated 7:55 AM ET, Tue April 6, 2021


(CNN) - Michigan is in another coronavirus surge and hospitals are again on the front line, but this time they have a new type of patient: younger and healthier.

Fred Romankewiz was on his way to get vaccinated, but he didn't feel well so he canceled the appointment and got a Covid-19 test instead. Though he'd been inches from the coronavirus finish line, the 54-year-old construction materials salesman from Lansing now tested positive.

"What really is frustrating to me is it's been a year and what -- three months now, and I played it right to the tee. I mean, I did everything correct," said Romankewiz. "And then to have this happen."

Watching TV, responding to a steady stream of text messages and cracking jokes from his hospital bed in Lansing's Sparrow Hospital, Romankewiz said he feels upbeat about his prospects for a full recovery but that the virus laid him low.

"I felt like I went 10 rounds with Mike Tyson," he said. "I was absolutely physically exhausted. I mean, I felt like I had been beat up, I felt like I had been in a car accident. I mean, it was crazy."

Romankewiz, who lives a healthy life and has no underlying conditions, said he contracted the virus from his 19-year-old-son, Andy. His wife, Betsy, who is fully vaccinated, also got the virus but suffered minor symptoms.
Jim Dover, CEO and president of Sparrow Health System, a large health care provider in central Michigan, said two things are driving the current surge: pandemic fatigue and mutations in the coronavirus that have made it more contagious and possibly more deadly.

"This variant is more virulent, and so therefore more infectious, and so easier to catch," said Dover. "Second is everyone is tired of wearing masks, so you will go out and see a lack of social distancing, the lack of wearing masks. The virus is invisible and people did not know they're walking through a cloud of Covid, and next thing you know, they're infected."

Dangerous variant spreading throughout the state

Both the B.1.351 and highly contagious B.1.1.7 variants have been identified in Michigan, but the B.1.1.7 strain is now spreading throughout the community. The state health department has identified more than 1,200 instances of the B.1.1.7 variant. The actual number is likely much higher considering the difficulty in determining which variant is causing cases throughout the state -- the samples have to be sent to a state lab for time-consuming DNA analysis to determine the variant.

At Beaumont Hospital's Royal Oak, a facility of the largest health care provider in the Wolverine State, the prevalence of the B.1.1.7 variant is clear.
Dr. Justin Skrzynski is a Covid hospitalist -- a title that didn't exist a year ago -- which means he specializes in the care of Covid patients. He said they send out a small sample of some of their cases to the state for DNA analysis.
"Right now, the regular Covid test we do -- that's still just showing Covid (or) no Covid," Skrzynski said. "But we do send a lot of those out to the state and we are seeing something like 40% of our patients now (with) B.1.1.7."

Tina Catron, 44, is under Skrzynski's care at Beaumont Health's Royal Oak facility. The mother of two said she thinks her family became infected with coronavirus through her children's soccer league.

"We're not 100% sure," she said of how they all got it, "but we think from the soccer field, with the parents, even though we're all masked up. From the sidelines, everyone's yelling. And I think what happened is my husband was with my son, his soccer game. And he brought it home."

Fighting the virus on many fronts

Health officials in Michigan have indicated both schools and youth sports are possible vectors for the virus. Catron says her 9-year-old, Levi, and 7-year-old, Jesse, had no symptoms and her husband got very sick but wasn't hospitalized.

She said was shocked to be hospitalized. She's healthy, active and has no underlying conditions but required hospitalization after developing pneumonia.

"You feel like you're suffocating a little bit," she said, clearing her throat and still struggling to breathe.

At one point, Catron's oxygen levels dropped dangerously low to 82% -- far below the normal range of 95% to 100%.

Michigan -- whose Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, experienced severe backlash from Republicans, business owners and others over her ongoing coronavirus restrictions -- is fighting the virus on several fronts. Vaccinations are rolling out, with about 600,000 Michiganders getting a shot every week; the economy is reopening, with some restrictions being lifted; and many are returning to pre-pandemic life with no masks or social distancing.

The daily hospital admission rate based on a seven-day rolling average for younger age groups in Michigan is up over the same averages during the massive autumn surge. For instance, the Michigan Health & Hospital Association reports that among those aged 30-39, there were 26 daily admissions based on a seven-day average during the fall and winter surge, while today there are 43 admissions in the same age bracket.

The 40-49 age bracket is seeing a similar rise, with 58 being admitted daily compared to 33 during the autumn surge. For those 60 and older, hospitalizations have declined sharply as vaccinations have risen.
The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services says 35.2% of Michigan adults have received at least one vaccine dose and 21.5% have been fully vaccinated.

Health workers were 'thrown a curveball'

Dr. Lynda Misra, medical director of the Covid unit at Beaumont Health's Royal Oak facility, said the rise in cases has been sharp and they are unsure where they are in this current surge. Whatever it brings, she said, she and her staff will meet the challenge -- but the virus has proved resilient and tricky to fight.

"Each surge has brought different challenges," she said. "We felt very strong that we had this disease under attack, but then we get thrown a curveball."
The weight and strain of the ongoing pandemic is evident when speaking to health care workers.

Lindsay Muenchen, a registered nurse in the Covid unit at Sparrow Hospital in Lansing, said she had thought the worst was behind them. "The day I came in and saw that our unit was full of Covid patients again, it was really difficult," she said. "I had tears in my eyes."

Dora Hoppes, also at Sparrow Hospital, has worked as a registered nurse for 22 years. She said the past year has been the hardest.

Her voice cracked and emotions rose at the first question of our brief interview. When asked why it's so hard to speak about the past year, she motioned down the hallway. "I just saw it yesterday," she said, fighting back tears. "I had a patient that passed away, so it's very fresh, every day."

The stress of being constantly surrounded by so much sickness and death is the most difficult part of a job she loves, she said. "I would like to come into work now and just take care of a person who is here because they need their gallbladder out."

CNN's Linh Tran and Frank Bivona contributed to this report.



Link: https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/05/us/mi...WYqPsZhmpljy7Q

Because it's such a simple, harmless, fairly in expensive and effective way to suppress viral transmission that can be done with no significant effects on the economy or the ability of people to interact. Indeed, if people wear masks its possible that economic activity and social interaction that might otherwise be dangerous can have acceptable risk.

If you want most businesses open, at least some fans in the stands for sports, concerts to be possible and in-person schooling, wear a mask during such activities and they can probably happen. No one in America is seriously talking these days about Europe-style lockdowns. They're just asking people to wear masks. What seems crazy and almost sociopathic is the unwillingness to do such a simple thing.

:tup:

You've got no argument here. I've been pro-mask since pretty much the beginning. The reluctance to wear masks has been our biggest problem in the US

From the Los Angeles Times:

California aims to fully reopen the economy June 15

By LUKE MONEY, TARYN LUNA
APRIL 6, 2021 11 AM PT

California is aiming to fully reopen its economy June 15 — the clearest end date eyed for restrictions that have besieged businesses and upended daily life throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

The date isn’t set in stone. And officials emphasize that getting to the point where California can widely reopen for the first time in more than a year will hinge on two factors: a sufficient vaccine supply to inoculate all those who are eligible and stable and low numbers of people hospitalized with the disease.

June 15 also won’t bring a full return to pre-pandemic life. Notably, California’s mask mandate will remain in place for the foreseeable future.

But officials expressed confidence that the state, through continued improvement in its coronavirus metrics and the steady rollout of vaccines, is now positioned to begin actively planning for what comes after COVID-19.

“With more than 20 million vaccines administered across the state, it is time to turn the page on our tier system and begin looking to fully reopen California’s economy,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement Tuesday. “We can now begin planning for our lives post-pandemic. We will need to remain vigilant, and continue the practices that got us here — wearing masks and getting vaccinated — but the light at the end of this tunnel has never been brighter.”

Should all go as planned, June 15 will see the official end of California’s current reopening roadmap, which sorts counties into one of four color-coded tiers based on three metrics: coronavirus case rates, adjusted based on the number of tests performed; the rate of positive test results; and a health-equity metric intended to ensure that the positive test rate in poorer communities is not significantly higher than the county’s overall figure.

“The entire state will move into this phase as a whole. This will not be county-by-county,” Dr. Mark Ghaly, California’s health and human services secretary, said in a briefing call with reporters.

In a statement, officials said those sectors included in the state’s reopening blueprint will be allowed to “return to usual operations in compliance with Cal/OSHA requirements and with common-sense public health policies in place, such as required masking, testing and with vaccinations encouraged. Large-scale indoor events, such as conventions, will be allowed to occur with testing or vaccination verification requirements.”

Ghaly emphasized that, “if we see any concerning rise in our hospitalizations, we will take the necessary precautions. But right now, we are hopeful in what we’re seeing as we continue to build on the 20 million vaccines already administered.”

A successful statewide reopening in June poses a major political upside for the governor, who faces a likely recall election in the fall.

Newsom’s chances of surviving a recall could be higher if Californians have resumed some form of pre-COVID-19 life when they cast their ballots. Mass vaccinations and the return of in-person education are critical to that sense of normalcy.

Newsom was the first governor in the nation to issue a stay-at-home order in the early days of the pandemic last year, an action widely cast as the right call to protect California’s fragile healthcare system.

The governor hasn’t received the same praise for his handling of reopenings.

Health experts have said Newsom lifted restrictions too quickly and didn’t reinstate them fast enough when case numbers grew, adding to COVID-19 surges in the summer and winter. Health and Human Services Secretary Ghaly, one of the state’s top health officials, has said he would have slowed the pace of change last summer if he could do it all again.

Rescinding restrictions and launching a sweeping reopening create news risks for Newsom. If the virus surges again or unexpected problems arise, the whiplash of the governor’s constantly changing rules could be fresher in the minds of voters, who may blame him at the polls.

Political experts say the more Californians think of the pandemic in the past tense, the more likely Newsom is to keep his seat.

The announcement of the targeted reopening date came the same day that California hit its goal of administering 4 million COVID-19 vaccine doses in its most vulnerable communities — a milestone not only in the ongoing struggle to more equitably give out the precious shots, but in the push to further reopen the state’s economy even ahead of June 15.

Hitting the target means the state will redraft the reopening roadmap to implement new criteria that will allow counties to more quickly relax some of the restrictions on businesses and public spaces.

The changes will, in effect, apply an orange coat to the Golden State.

The tiers outlined in California’s current reopening strategy go from purple, in which coronavirus transmission is considered widespread, and indoor operations are severely limited or suspended across a wide array of business sectors; to red, with fewer restrictions; to orange, with even fewer; and finally, yellow, in which most businesses can open indoors with modifications.

Before Tuesday, counties had to record fewer than 4.0 new cases per day per 100,000 people to move into the orange tier. With the 4-million dose target now achieved, the requirement has been loosened to under 6.0.

Moving into the orange tier has significant economic implications.

Counties can allow bars to reopen outdoors with some modifications, and bars also are no longer required to serve food.

Amusement parks can reopen at up to 25% capacity, and fan attendance is allowed at 33% capacity for outdoor sports and live performances.

Capacity restrictions can also be lifted in stores, although social distancing and other safety modifications still apply; houses of worship, museums, zoos and aquariums can raise their indoor capacity to 50% from 25%; restaurants and movie theaters can raise indoor capacity to 50% capacity or 200 people from 25% or 100 people (whichever is fewer); and indoor gyms and yoga studios can increase capacity to 25% from 10%.

Bowling alleys can reopen with modifications at 25% capacity. Card rooms and satellite wagering sites can also reopen indoors at 25% capacity.

Offices in nonessential industries can reopen, though the state says workers should still be encouraged to work remotely.

The state-set goal of administering first 2 million, then 4 million doses in targeted communities — namely, those in the lowest quartile of a socioeconomic measurement tool called the California Healthy Places Index — was only one aspect of a wider effort aimed at ensuring equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines.

California has for the last month earmarked 40% of its COVID-19 vaccine supply for residents in those disadvantaged areas, an allocation state officials said would not only help address inequities in the inoculation rollout, but make sure the shots are available to those most at risk from the pandemic.

To date, providers throughout California have doled out 20.3 million total COVID-19 vaccine doses, and 34.2% of residents have received at least one shot, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Roughly 18.1% of Californians are fully vaccinated at this point, meaning they’ve either received the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine or both required doses of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines.

Nationwide, 32.4% of Americans have received at least one dose and 18.8% are fully vaccinated, CDC data show.

During the early phases of the vaccine rollout, California restricted access to the shots to those considered at highest risk of coronavirus infection, either because of their age, occupation or underlying health conditions.

That will change starting April 15, when anyone age 16 and over will be able to book appointments.

The state had widened vaccine eligibility last week to include everyone 50 and older.

President Biden had initially said states should make all adults eligible for COVID-19 vaccines by May 1. But he is expected to announce a more aggressive timeline Tuesday — setting a new deadline of April 19.

Link: https://www.latimes.com/california/s...conomy-june-15

The data doesn't support the argument that masks are important enough to impose on people though. I would be a sociopath if that were true, but real life data is showing its statically a non-mover.

I couldn't help but laugh seeing my breath billow out of my mask during cold winter days. Obviously my mask was doing nothing.

All you have to do is breathe out onto your hand without a mask, and then with a mask on, and you can obviously see that there is a profound difference in air flow.

Masks aren't full proof. But if they reduce viral innoculum then they've done their job

I get that, but to what extent? Like am I 20% or 95% less likely to get covid wearing a mask? That's an important question.

All I know is that we went from 3457 deaths on Jan 26th to 808 deaths on April 5th. Masks had absolutely nothing to do with that nor does it show up when comparing relatively unmasked states to states that have a high proportion of masked residents.



I guess the fight against masking is that certain segments of the population act like you are evil for not wearing one, as if it means certain death for those around you and that its efficacy is in question.

I had a lady get off the sidewalk to continue her jog in a bike lane rather than walk on an extremely wide sidewalk today past me. It's laughable, really. But then again, it's scary. These are the exact types of people that would call me "anti-science" when they must have NEVER read anything about outdoor transmission.

Right? And why risk it? Would you allow unmasked coughing people and unmasked joggers within a few feet of your 10-year old unmasked child outside?

the main benefit is reduction in transmission.