I don't think you're missing much in AZ. The last few years, late May's been a crapshoot, heat-wise. Sometimes we'll have excellent weather (temperatures in the 90s are somewhat reasonable so long as humidity is low) other times it can be a blast furnace with temps in the mid-100's Fahrenheit.

My parents, grandmother, gf and I were supposed to go to NYC in early October, but that's been put on hold. Apparently our hotel reservation is valid for another year or two. We got airfare vouches, but who knows what the US domestic airline industry will look like this time next year, much less if United Airlines will still be in business or will have merged with/bought another airline? I wasn't, and am still not, looking forward to flying into Newark but whatever.

Looking like potentially June for a potential NYC reopening. "Potentially".

I am driving (not flying) to Upstate NY to visit family sometime in June or July and will pass through NYC on the way up. Hopefully it will still be quiet enough to get some decent photos without the throngs of tourists.

I would be all over London with a pair of DSLR's taking advantage of the empty streets.

Los Angeles County beaches will reopen this Wednesday with some restrictions.

From deadline.com:

L.A. County Coronavirus Update: Los Angeles Beaches Reopening On Wednesday


By Tom Tapp
May 11, 2020 4:06pm

UPDATED WEDNESDAY, 4 PM On Monday afternoon, a notice appeared on the Los Angeles County Twitter feed announcing that L.A. County beaches would reopen on Wednesday, May 13.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXxE3CnU...jpg&name=small

Shortly thereafter came confirmation that the news was, indeed, true.

Los Angeles County officials announced that area beaches, which have been closed since March 27, will reopen Wednesday for active use only, but parking lots, piers and boardwalks will remain off limits.

L.A. beaches have been shut down even as the coastline reopened for active use in Orange County.

“Active use only” only means no sunbathing, sitting on the sand, setting up canopies or picnicking, according to the Department of Beaches and Harbors.

Beach parking lots will remain closed, as will beach bike paths and all piers and boardwalks, according to the county.

Beachgoers will also have to wear masks and maintain a six-foot buffer between themselves and others under continued social-distancing requirements.

Despite active-use-only restrictions, many people have recently been seen in Orange County lying on towels and sunbathing, in apparent defiance of the requirements.

In Los Angeles County, surfers have already been taking to the waves for the past couple days with no interference.

Authorities have said they would try to educate people in violation of the rules instead of issuing citations.

Manhattan Beach Mayor Richard Montgomery asked residents to adhere to the rules.

“I urge everyone to follow all Public Health Orders for your safety and your neighbors, and please use the beach responsibly by practicing physical distancing,” he said in a statement.

“The beach will be open for active uses only, such as walking, running, surfing and swimming,” said Montgomery. “If beach visitors do not follow all the rules, the state of California or Los Angeles County can once again close our beaches.”

Earlier on Monday, when asked specifically about reopening on Wednesday, L.A. County Director of Public Health Dr. Barbara Ferrer demurred.

Ferrer said that the county was working on a plan and hoped to reopen beaches “this week.” She was not more specific about exact timing.

“It will be with a lot of restrictions in place, so there won’t be overcrowding” she said. “It’ll be for active recreation only.”

[...]

Link: https://deadline.com/2020/05/l-a-cou...ay-1202931893/

The numbers for the city tourism are going to be horrific this year. Summer is a massive peak season for the NY Metro, especially internationally. I think it may be a while before tourist numbers go back to what they use to be. I'd imagine a lot of vacation savings got wiped out from this pandemic (Americans, and international folks).

67 million visited NYC in 2019. I wonder what 2020's numbers will yield.

You know, when all this started(and I, like many, thought this would be over in 2-4 weeks as far as lockdowns go) I was so thankful about *when* all this started. Imagine if this happened a month before Christmas, holy shit. Or if it started in May, destroying the summer. Now, it is looking like it will still destroy some of the summer for some people, but it could have been worse.

But yeah, if this started like a week before Thanksgiving...Jesus.

You're not allowed to sit on a beach in Southern CA? And this is "reopening"? Completely absurd.

What if I sit on a rock in the tide pools? Is someone gonna lock me up for not social distancing from the sea urchins?

after the virus wrecks the economy, the landscape is going to look very different. rip the quirky little guys, like gem spa newsstand.


https://champ.gothamist.com/champ/go...anently-closed


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http://i1340.photobucket.com/albums/...ps9bzchrzb.jpg

About an hour south of where I live is Greenville, SC, home to one of the finest downtowns to be found in any small American city.

Lunchtime along Main Street quiet as Greenville restaurants begin reopening indoor dining
By Haley Walters

Source.

Can we please be accurate in our language? The virus has done very little to the economy, very little. The government is probably responsible for 70-80% of economic issues.

You must compare this to the economic damage the virus would have done in the absence of government action.

Economic volatility is 100% emotional reaction. That will never change. If the government never shut things down and infection/ fatality rates were higher than they were, there would have been panic and people would have self isolated on their own killing off a lot of hospitality and 'non essential' businesses anyway. The markets would have still had a free fall and layoffs would have still occurred. Price of oil would have still tanked over lack of demand. The only unknown would be if and when people would feel comfortable return normalcy...assuming the pandemic was left to 'burn itself out' without intervening.

Yeah, let daily US deaths get to the five figures...that would go well.

The do-nothing scenarios got into the 1,500,000-dead range in the US alone, with tent cities full of people basically left to die.

I'm searching for the article I read in the NYT yesterday that showed the drop in consumer spending in several areas (entertainment, restaurants, etc) had dropped by 20-40% in the couple of weeks before any government shutdowns even started.

If anything the shutdowns were the best shot to SAVE the economy from a longer lasting depression. A chance to give some stability with a plan, some dates, some benchmarks. Letting it "burn itself out" and the ensuing chaos and confusion would just create a prolonged panic. Unfortunately, now we have confusion AND shutdowns. Our country really botched this whole thing.

How to protest when you’re immuno-compromised and can’t hit the streets? ‘Plane banner!’
By Josh Shaffer

Source.

https://www.newsobserver.com/latest-..._NC_TEL_01.JPG
Source.

Metro St. Louis is turning into a mess.

Jefferson and St. Charles County (this is St. Louis' high growth county) reopened when the governor lifted his "restrictions" earlier this month. The city and St. Louis County are allowing restaurants and bars to reopen at 25% capacity on the 18th, although both will still have more restrictions than places like St. Charles County.

Meanwhile, in Illinois, Madison County, which makes up one of the primary Illinois suburban counties, just voted to reopen against Pritzker's orders.

Someone grab the popcorn.

NYC Figures (As of time of this post):

Queens has 56,899 cases.
Brooklyn (Kings) has 50,079 cases.
Bronx has 41,746 cases.
Manhattan at 22,771 cases.
Richmond (Staten Island) at 12,733 cases (least dense borough).

Total of 27,477 deaths in the 5-boroughs AND NY State. 1/3 in Nursing homes.

21,845 being within 5-boroughs.

As a Hornets cheerleader, she’s been sidelined. As a nurse, she’s most definitely not.
By Theoden Janes

Source.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/ne...F4745DF43F.JPG
Source.

This is such a false statement. Restaurant reservations dropped by around 90% before stay at home orders. Most major festivals, concerts, conferences, sporting events, etc canceled voluntarily as well. And the airline industry collapsed entirely on its own. We were going to see a major recession spurred by a collapse of the entertainment/travel/hospitality industry regardless of what actions state governments took in March/April.

Totally. And even here in SoCal, people who were able to, were encouraged by employers to work from home well before California's stay-at-home order. Traffic was already getting lighter during rush hour by mid or late February.

So 25% of all deaths, and 13% of all positive cases, in the US are within the New York city limits.

Yes, because we were all terrified by something we had no clue about. I was scared, the vast majority of people were. Now we have hard data, we know who should and shouldn't be worried. So pre-corona data on restaurants are useless right now.

We have data but there is still a lot we don't know. We don't have the complete picture at all. Nor do we really know how effective we're able to control the spread by means other than making people sit at home.

We still don’t know everything about lots of diseases. Should we all sit at home until we have a definitive answer to everything?

I hope the Vilnius idea catches on. Most of us would have always been proponents for more street space to be used by pedestrians/businesses. Once people had a taste of a summer full of patios like that, they would be pushing for them every year.

If you think this is tough you should read the history of what people in your city were forced to do during the last outbreak of the Plague there.

Yea, anyone over 50, or obese, or with high blood pressure, or diabetes, or any other number of factors that include the majority of the American workforce not to mention our loved ones... and even if you are perfectly healthy, you can expect a week or two of debilitating illness. Of the two people I know personally, one was a 55 year old man who is now dead, the other was a healthy healthy 28 year old who was admitted to the hospital, delirious with fever and unable to breath. I’m 32 and healthy and still really, really don’t want to test the corona waters.

The people pushing for full reopening are either ignorant of the facts or disingenuous about the risks they are personally willing to take.

This is crazy talk not supported by any data. The data actually supports the exact opposite - millions more asymptomatic cases than symptomatic.

I have once acquaintance that had it. He likely got it taking the train from Manhattan to his home in Long Island. He had 10 days of the worst flu he ever had. Despite trying to stay away from his family, he is sure his wife and all three kids got it. His wife had what we would consider a regular flu for about 4 days. His twins were mildly sick for two days, and his last kid has a light cough for a day.

I also know four people who showed symptoms of the coronavirus at different times in February. There obviously was no testing then, and there was no idea it was even in the US, and thus all four continued to go into work. One still has lung problems stemming from the mystery sickness in February. I also had something in February that completely sucked the energy out of me.

The problem is that you’re going to have to at some point. You and I and everyone else here will have the choice of getting it, or staying locked down for 2 years.

Personally I’ll take a few days in bed chugging Emergen-C and ibuprofen, if it even comes to that, over the other option. That is if I haven’t had it already.

Well I don't live in a city so things are a little different, and right now we are in phase two reopening. The county is working with the Governor to get things into phase three, as they are following the guidance provided by the Governor's office instead of violating his orders.

You actually think this? The point of lockdowns is to get the numbers low enough that we can relax many restrictions fairly quickly...weeks in some places, months in others.

I'm admittedly getting impatient in CA. At first, it was about flattening the curve as to not overwhelm the hospitals which I supported. From what I can see, we've achieved that in California. The hospitals are nowhere near capacity. Now the narrative has shifted to having to achieve zero new infections in 14 days--in a state with nearly 40m residents--and saving all lives at the cost of shutting everything down and potentially putting everybody into poverty (which ironically will lead to thousands of deaths too). "Saving lives" seems to be conflated more and more with the hope of recording zero Coronavirus-related deaths. Sorry, but is that really even realistic?

I don't get it -- none of those measures will make the virus go away. As long as somebody on this planet has it, it's as contagious as it is, and there are no vaccines, we're going to deal with a constant risk of infection and unfortunately, fatalities. All we're doing at this point is prolonging the inevitable. The best we can do is mandate covered faces, wash our hands consistently, live as healthily as possible, reduce our social interactions, stay away from our elders, but try to live our lives. Require elders or immunocompromised to stay home, but allow restaurants/cafes to operate at reduced capacity etc. We need to accept this as our new normal. The current approach is way, way overboard.

Serology data from NYC suggests around 25% of the population has been infected. Including confirmed and probable deaths, close to a quarter of a percent of New Yorkers have died - meaning the death rate is really close to 1%.

Woo hoo! Some Pasadena car washes have reopened! I'm hoping Pasadena Hand Wash is one of them---I only take my car to hand wash places. The ones with the automated rotating brushes are too rough on your car's finish.


From ABC7:

https://abc7.com/6183540/?ex_cid=TA_...aVueYwxWPMBcaM

We have that here in Texas already and that will get old real fast. The 'new normal' will be an utter dystopia if it drags into years. I went into a first 'non essential' store (camera shop) since this all started a few months ago and was chastised for not having face covering on (was around my neck until I need it) and it reminded me that I'm good with sticking with online until the hysteria subsides. I get that for the time being we have to do what we have to do (social distancing and avoid extraneous activities) to minimize the virus but I think we're going to turn into a society of Howie Mandel's.

I really miss going to the library. Goddamned COVID-19!!!!

And then the case numbers will go up and people will panic.

It’s either 2 years of at least “social distancing”, which would be horrible, or we allow the virus to spread through the population and create immunity.

You do this while limiting the burden on the healthcare system by reducing the number of people requiring hospitalisation, especially intensive care. And you do that by telling those more likely to be vulnerable (old people, the immune-compromised people and probably the obese) to stay away from public places for the sake of their own health. Others will get Covid, but symptoms (if any) are likely to be mild enough that they just rest at home and get over it.

I want no part of “relaxed” restrictions if that means 4 tables spaced 8 feet apart in a restaurant that usually seats 30, no bars or pubs, cultural institutions closing (potentially for good), no gym, no face to face meetings (which are necessary for my business to actually earn revenue), and no travel.

Pepys was still attending weddings and going to his favorite pubs.

The largest gym chain Downtown here is talking about setting up isolation zones with tapes lines on the floor. You're going to have to schedule an appointment for your workout given this is usually a place that is operating over capacity from 11-1 and 5-7 on weekdays. Just shoot me now.

If you're going to a gym you're accepting that you're participating in a high-risk activity for transmission.

You said "staying locked down for 2 years." Nobody predicts that.

Your ideas about how to protect the old are yours, not the experts'. I know that's painful.

There's no expert consensus on any of this. You could ask 100 experts and get 100 different nuanced answers.

Wrong. "Consensus" doesn't require that everyone have it exactly the same. The consensus is that shutdowns, masks, social distancing, etc., are highly effective. Only the degree is in question.

• Video Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0cqrzzDzLM

Looking on the most optomistic side, the scenario the people wanting to maintain lockdowns are aiming at is that if we get the R0 below 1 (in the Bay Area we are very close), the virus will actually nearly go away . . . gradually (the lower the R0, the faster). Then, at some point, new infections will be few enough that we can do effective tracking and quarantine of contacts and really control the disease.

This is what people say, not necessarily what they do:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-...=hp_lista_pos2

Reopening criteria in SF Bay Area

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https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...k-15260354.php

Many people (especially older) are afraid to take public transportation (buses, subways, light rail, planes etc) and until the outbreak subsides, the reluctance may continue. There are predictions of an increase in homeless, but so far no data.

Doc--What percentage of the population do you suspect have had or have the disease? Some estimates are maybe 5% or more in many areas (Bay area, maybe not--NYC, maybe). Assymptematic cases rarely get tested so we don't know. At what % does "herd immunity" start to reduce infections significantly--over 50% of pop?. Any tips on getting good surgical masks or even better N95s? Scary to go out & shop without a good mask. Of course the medical professionals should get the first crack at them, but older people should too Can masks from China be trusted? So many reports of flaws in them in the media. What is your opinion on when the national number of cases subsides--later this month? Looks like remdesivir helps but is in short supply.

East London is hopping. I went over there by bike today and parks were packed, pubs doing beers in plastic pint cups to go, lots of street food available. The idea that you can keep people locked down in summer is just foolish.