Pedestrian |
Apr 9, 2021 6:19 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Camelback
(Post 9243231)
Moderna started clinical trials in the first humans of their mRNA vaccine in the US in March 2020. This was at a time when the total global death count was about 6,000. It was also at the time before states began locking down. They were already talking about a two dose system and the shots would be spaced out by 28 days.
They might have some idea how long the immunity lasts from the early clinical trials.
Also, Moderna had vials of vaccine ready by February 7th, 2020, waiting for clearance for human testing.
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They might have some idea, yes, which may be why every virologist is saying with confidence the immunity lasts longer than 6 months.
But that isn't the way these things get reported. The data generally is tabulated based on when the trials are fully subscribed and the last person included is signed up so that that person is included in the results. In other words, the 6 months started around early September which was 6 months before early March. Also, of course, the analysis of samples for antibodies takes some time and then more time to write up the data--maybe another month. Which brings us to now. That's just the way science works.
As far as vaccine development timing goes, this has been described but I'll repeat. The Modern and Pfizer vaccines are based on research taking place over the last DECADE. Pfizer's partner, Bio-N-Tech expected to use the results of its work, which was key, for CANCER immunotherapy, not anti-viral vaccines. Other researchers involved had been working on vaccines for SARS and MERS.
When the SARS-CoV-2 virus (cause of COVID) came along, everyone quickly realized the applicability of their previous work and it took literally hours to days to design a COVID vaccine based on it. Then the 3 phases of trials had to be begun which are the most expensive and time-consuming part of this kind of drug discovery. First they had to do Phase 1 trials showing the vaccines produced SOME antibodies. Then they had to do Phase 2 safety trials showing they didn't cause unacceptable side effects in a small group of test subjects. This took a couple of months. Only then were they ready to enroll the large number of participants in phase 3 trials: 44,000 in the case of Pfizer/Bio-N-Tech, 38,000 for Modern and 70,000 for Johnson & Johnson. That took several months (and some government money, especially for Moderna which was a small company). Finally, when all the people were enrolled and vaccinated with 1 or 2 shots as required, it was well into late summer/early fall. As I recall, the FDA wanted 3 months of data once the trials were fully enrolled. That's how we got to late November/early December for approval of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines and how we got to now for 3 more months of tabulated data including blood samples for antibody testing (remember, the vaccines were approved based on epidemiological grounds--preventing disease--not antibody production).
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